i'd rather not see such a shock at all, not that i think it will happen again.
it effectively means trillions of dollars going to autocratic regimes and trickle-down to terrorist groups. innovation on renewables would be sped up, but there's an upper limit to that, plus the issue with infrastructure.
on the contrary, i want to see a shock in the other direction: collapse back down to the $30-35 level, which was the low in February 2016. even current prices, which have roughly stabilized around $50, is rather too much for my taste-- Russia's budget can tolerate $40-45, but not much lower than that.
unfortunately, don't think that will happen soon either. my guess is that if anything, prices will go up, probably back to the $60 range over the next year.
status quo, more or less. well, unless we get into a major war...
it effectively means trillions of dollars going to autocratic regimes and trickle-down to terrorist groups. innovation on renewables would be sped up, but there's an upper limit to that, plus the issue with infrastructure.
on the contrary, i want to see a shock in the other direction: collapse back down to the $30-35 level, which was the low in February 2016. even current prices, which have roughly stabilized around $50, is rather too much for my taste-- Russia's budget can tolerate $40-45, but not much lower than that.
unfortunately, don't think that will happen soon either. my guess is that if anything, prices will go up, probably back to the $60 range over the next year.
status quo, more or less. well, unless we get into a major war...
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