777 missing with 239 souls on board

[dave lukins]

BBC: ''Malaysian police have searched the homes of the pilots of the Malaysia Airlines plane that vanished eight days ago with 239 people on board. The police are also reportedly looking at the family life and psychological state of pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah, 53, and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid, 27. This comes after the authorities said the communications systems of the plane had been deliberately disabled. This has refocused attention on the individuals on that flight, both passengers and crew. Investigators will want to know if any had a recent history of mental problems, family difficulties or extreme stress. Only four weeks ago an Ethiopian Airlines co-pilot hijacked his own plane to seek political asylum in Switzerland.''

[anil]

So, here’s how I think this went down....

After takeoff, they engaged the autopilot and autothrottles - which is normal. Once air traffic control cleared them to climb on course, they engaged VNAV-LNAV. At that point the airplane was being controlled by the computer (power setting, climb speed and ground track). All that is totally normal. “Climb on course” means to turn to your destination and climb at your desired rate – which pretty much means do what you want to do – GTFO of here.

However, while enroute to China, at some point during the climb and prior to reaching their cruise altitude (while the power was still up at a climb power setting), something happened (I have no idea what). The electrical system had a failure of some sort or other. The autopilot quit and the autothrottles quit and the airplane was pointed UP with a relatively high power setting. They were climbing and there was nothing other than the pilot that was going to level the airplane off.

note.... it’s right here that the captain should have given control of the airplane to the first officer and told him to LEVEL OFF and turn back to the departure airport in Malaysia. Then, while the FO was physically flying the airplane and getting clearance to descend back to the departure airport, the captain would address the electrical problem and try to fix what he could. No way would I fly an airplane all the way to China in the dead of night with a serious electrical problem like that. However, the captain did NOT do any of this. They just kept going (freaking stupid – major league pilot error there – MUCHO FAIL). I guarantee you that ultimately they’ll do the typical thing and “blame it on the dead guy,” but in this case it’s deserved. The decision to do nothing right then is what ultimately killed everyone.

The pressurization system: The pressurization system pumps up the interior of the airplane like a balloon. As air pressure is fed into the cabin from the engines, the “outflow valve” controls how fast air is allowed to leave the cabin. A computer automatically meters the outflow valve (open and closed) to maintain the cabin pressure within certain limits during all phases of flight. While in climb, the engines are putting out lots of air pressure, so the outflow valve is fairly open (when a lot of pressure comes in, a lot has to be allowed to flow out).

However, with an “essential bus” electrical failure (in the 727 and 737 anyway) the outflow valve freezes in it’s last position. So, if the electrical problem occurred in a climb with a climb power setting, the outflow valve would have failed in a more OPEN position. Normally, as the airplane climbs, the pressurization system automatically meters the outflow valve closed to maintain a cabin pressure differential (the “differential” being the difference between inside – cabin altitude - and the outside – airplane altitude) within certain limits. In this case, with the valve failed OPEN, the cabin-altitude (that’s the effective altitude inside the semi-pressurized airplane) would have continued to climb along with the airplane. It was either this or there was a breech in the fuselage and they lost pressurization completely. I doubt that there was a breech because that would have been noticeable (everyone’s ears would have immediately popped and a fog would have been created in the cabin and cockpit). I think their loss of pressurization was slow and not noticeable at all.

That same electrical problem (whatever it was) caused the transponder to fail (it was NOT intentionally turned off as suspected – the electrical power was interrupted). The engine power was up at CLIMB (engines are mostly unaffected by electrical problems), the autothrottles had failed, the autopilot was either OFF or in some wings level reversion mode, and the pilots were screwing around looking at the electrical problem instead of leveling off, turning back around to Malaysia, and putting their O2 masks on. As the airplane continued to climb, the effective altitude of the cabin continued to climb because the outflow valve was stuck in a more open position. As the airplane climbed and pressure outside the cabin was reduced, the outflow valve needed to CLOSE to maintain cabin pressure. As this continued, the cabin altitude continued to climb and they slowly lost the ability to think and passed out. They never leveled off and the power stayed up at the CLIMB power setting (where it had been since takeoff). The people in the back would have donned their masks which would have automatically dropped at a cabin altitude of 10,300’. There’s no telling what the airplane’s altitude was at that point (probably in the high 20,000s). Passenger oxygen is delivered by something called a gas grain generator and as I recall, those things start when you pull the lanyard down and on the 777 they work for 20 minutes or so. But the airplane was still climbing, so the passengers’ 02 units would have been exhausted and they would have probably been dead before the airplane reached 45000 feet. The airplane was still heavy after T/O so it was probably only climbing at 1000 feet per minute or so after reaching 30,000’ and slower after reaching 40,000’. It takes a while to get that high. The airplane was not being piloted at that point (by anyone or anything). It was ballistic. Passenger oxygen is designed to keep people alive while the airplane makes an emergency DESCENT. This airplane was still climbing

At 45000 feet, the airplane could no longer physically climb. The wings could no longer support the airplane and they stalled. The nose dropped and dished out to the left bottoming out at 23000 feet. Like a falling leaf (in a way), that’s what caused the 90 degree heading change. Then, in a big aerodynamic oscillation aided by the big increase in airspeed (caused by the nose dropping and the dish-out maneuver), the nose rose and continued up – the airplane climbed again to 29000 feet. The changes in heading after that were random and probably caused by minor turbulence here and there in the air.

It was at climb power the whole time, so it ran out of gas an hour early – which is probably close to where the last ACARS ping was seen. The ACARS is an automatic computer generated reporting system in the airplane that sends all kinds of real-time data back to a computerized database at Boeing, the company that owns the airplane and to the maker of the various aircraft components – like the engines). It’s all automated.

The destroyer sent to the Indian Ocean will hear the pings from the Flight Data Recorder. It’s in the water, everyone is dead.

The one thing I don’t understand is how the ACARS was powered when the transponder, the autopilot and the autothrottles weren’t. The ACARS may have its own independent power system. The wiring inside that jet has to be insanely complicated. Either way, it obviously happened.

According to some guy on reddit who claims to be a retired pilot

[Bigfella]

BBC: ''Malaysian police have searched the homes of the pilots of the Malaysia Airlines plane that vanished eight days ago with 239 people on board. The police are also reportedly looking at the family life and psychological state of pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah, 53, and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid, 27. This comes after the authorities said the communications systems of the plane had been deliberately disabled. This has refocused attention on the individuals on that flight, both passengers and crew. Investigators will want to know if any had a recent history of mental problems, family difficulties or extreme stress. Only four weeks ago an Ethiopian Airlines co-pilot hijacked his own plane to seek political asylum in Switzerland.''

I know a bit about this via a mate whose brother is an Ethiopian Airlines pilot. Apparently a disgruntled (now ex) employee who thought he could just claim asylum. Apparently the Swiss disagree. I imagine Swiss jails are nicer than Ethiopian ones, so it could be worse.;)

[Triple C]

I am not sure I buy the terrorists took the plane theory. If you successfully took control of a huge jet like the 777 without anyone knowing, good for you and it's time to use it. There's no reason to disappear with it. If somebody intentionally diverted the plane from the flight path, as it now appears to be the case, I think something went very wrong for the second time and the jet is lost.

[Monash]

I am not sure I buy the terrorists took the plane theory. If you successfully took control of a huge jet like the 777 without anyone knowing, good for you and it's time to use it. There's no reason to disappear with it. If somebody intentionally diverted the plane from the flight path, as it now appears to be the case, I think something went very wrong for the second time and the jet is lost.

Agreed, I might add the the days of (overt) State sponsored terrorism are done. There is simply nowhere for the 'terrorists' to take the plane and land it without invoking the ire of the international community along with subsequent crippling economic sanctions and international arrest warrants for the head of state concerned. And that's not even considering the likelihood of military intervention following along in due course.

Gadafi's Libya is gone, so is Idi Amin's Uganda, Cuba, the Eastern Block and all other old suspects. Does anyone seriously think that NK is going to accept the risk hiding a plane load of kidnapped Chinese citizens inside it's borders? Somalia wouldn't have any place to hide it even if the plane had the fuel to get there which it doesn't and the rest of the Arab world is out of range to.

In short, non-state actors might dream about pulling of a coup like this but no country on Earth is going to let them park that plane on its soil without alerting the world first.

[Aryajet]

Hard to say why no calls, but isn't it possible hijackers might have taken all the cell phones? Maybe told passengers that the use of a cell phone might set a bomb off? There are also cell phone blockers available commercially and plans on making them. So much so that the FCC had to step in- FCC Cracks Down on Cell Phone 'Jammers' - US News.
Also the lack of service might be another reason.
I asked earlier about the existence of old WW2 abandoned fields in the vicinity- a quick Google search turned up a couple of abandoned fields in West Bengal, not sure of runway conditions, although a site I found showing some abandoned WW2 fields on remote Pacific islands still had pavement in good enough condition for multi engine turboprops to land, so maybe they're usable. If an aircraft the size of a B777 approached the coast of India, is it possible it could escape detection? Seems like a really unlikely scenario to hijack it and re-purpose it later, but with no claim of responsibility, no demands and authorities now saying they think it a highjacking I guess you have to wonder.
Unless it's a pilot suicide, but if it's that, why turn off the transponder and change course and fly out of your course. Why not just nose dive it?
Definitely going to need a lot of thorough police work and a bit of luck to solve this. And it might never be solved- it's a big ocean.

I don't believe post 9/11 an airliner hijacking can be initiated from cabin, knowing what happened to the passengers of those 4 jets they will overpower the jackers, although few people might get killed but airplane will not be slammed to a building. Even if the hijacking was started from cockpit the pilot/s will need collaboration of flight attendants, they have probably flown that route multiple times and will notice the suspicious activities in the cockpit, unusual flight duration and/or course changes.

[citanon]

According to some guy on reddit who claims to be a retired pilot

That would have explained one course change, not the several moving to known navigation points and evading radar.

[Blademaster]

That would have explained one course change, not the several moving to known navigation points and evading radar.

Perhaps the waypoints would automatically trigger an increase of speed or decrease of speed as part of the flight plan profile?

I am thinking that something happened on the plane where a glitch with the pilots knocked out input an earlier stored flight plan that was used on previous flights as the computer tried to restore back systems. Is that plausible?

[citanon]

Perhaps the waypoints would automatically trigger an increase of speed or decrease of speed as part of the flight plan profile?

I am thinking that something happened on the plane where a glitch with the pilots knocked out input an earlier stored flight plan that was used on previous flights as the computer tried to restore back systems. Is that plausible?

I don't think the autopilot can do something like that on its own, and it seems unlikely that technical failures alone can explain the behavior without a guiding intelligence. Of course there's still a chance that the information we are getting about the course changes are inaccurate due to incompetence or difficulty of analysis.

Here are some more info about the events:


Planning could hold key to disappearance of Flight MH370 | Reuters.com

[lemontree]

Still no word , those poor relatives must be in turmoil .

Spare a thought for the chap who told his wife that he was going to Beijing on MH370,....
and now he cannot come out of his girlfriend's flat.

[Doktor]

Spare a thought for the chap who told his wife that he was going to Beijing on MH370,....
and now he cannot come out of his girlfriend's flat.

He is still alive. Till he comes home.

[lemontree]

He is still alive. Till he comes home.

His wife will clobber him to pulp, and the Govt with stuff his ass in jail...and interrogate his 7 generations

[Triple C]

Malaysian news organizations reported the pilot of MH370 is a relative of Anwar, the jailed opposition leader, by marriage, and Anwar had in fact confirmed that the pilot is a close friend (oh my, Malay authorities must be SHOCKED by this revelation!). In addition to this, Malaysian police found in the pilot's flight simulator at home seven landing practices for airstrips located in the Indian Ocean.

[Monash]

Malaysian news organizations reported the pilot of MH370 is a relative of Anwar, the jailed opposition leader, by marriage, and Anwar had in fact confirmed that the pilot is a close friend

Yes and hijacking a plane on his behalf would be just what Anwar needs at the moment by way of boosting his national and international profile!

[Triple C]

Yes and hijacking a plane on his behalf would be just what Anwar needs at the moment by way of boosting his national and international profile!

What an idiot ball, if that's the case. Everybody looks bad now.