No announcement yet.

Peak Oil

  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by Versus View Post
    Price formation is based for the most part on the supply and demand, basic principle of open market laws. But they can be seen as valid only till there is a capacity to satisfy the supply which than satisfied the demand.
    I think that may be too simplistic a way of looking at it in the age of futures markets. What role do these markets play in determining the price of oil tomorrow. Its gone beyond supply & demand and more into the realm of speculation. What ppl think the price will cost tomorrow based on events that happen today. There are many ppl that want futures pricing in oil to be stopped as they see it as highly speculative, prone to bubbles just like any commodity market and the effects are much more far reaching than with other commodities.

    But the idea is if you know in advance how much to spend for fuel tomorrow then it helps in planning. It makes the future more predictable and then you won't have to worry about investing in growth. It removes one variable at least. This works for consumers as well as suppliers as they know if they invest in more production they can see returns in a reliable manner.

    Suggest you examine the role & impact that futures markets have on the price of oil we see.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Jun 11,, 10:26.


    • The fall of man with technology

      When cutting costs to remain profitable come head to head with things that have to be done, this is what happens:
      Los Alamos nuclear lab to remain closed as New Mexico wildfire nears - BlogPost - The Washington Post
      Wildfire swells near New Mexico nuclear laboratory | Top AP Stories | - Houston Chronicle
      Same thing happened in Serbia in 2006.
      To make it a bit clearer.
      This is the matrix. This is how things work. Wild fires present the substantial danger to everything. I will go trough the most obvious ones that strike first to the long term consequences.
      First, the fire is a danger to human habitats and infrastructure. Also it is a threat to human lives. It can burn homes,businesses, govt and military facilities and it can kill people. It is destructive in every shape or form. It destroys wildlife as well. Woods present habitat for various wildlife species whom either perish or get displaced from threat. And when they are displaced they migrate and they might come in contact with human habitats. Various predators can than endanger the live stock,herbivores can endanger crops in the times after the fire has ended. That is also added to the damage and presents mid range damage. The long term damage reflects it self in a desolate landscape that is prone to dust storms the weather is dry or it can cause mudslides during the rain. The ash cloud form the fires can contaminate the water ways and water supplies furthering the damage.
      As the human habitats are forced to evacuate, with them the economic driver goes away, less people means less consumers, less workforce and that reflects on the economy. With New Mexico there is also a potential for radioactive containment which is the most devastating consequence.
      So why, I mean WHY these things happen?
      US is the most technologically advanced country in the world. It has huge industrial potential, it has skilled workforce and good infrastructure. But yet again, it fails to address this issue. It is capable to invest billions of dollars into advanced stealth aircraft, millions more in maintenance and training but yet it is incapable to fill a large cargo lifter with water and to prevent disasters like this. Think of the old ones, if you don't want to use new ones. Think of thousands and thousands of cargo planes that are rotting in the scrap yard that could be converted for areal fire suppression. The damage would be a heck of a lot smaller.
      For large area detection, the US has advanced drones and satellite network. It can see everything 24/7. How it failed to see first 100 acres of fire that turned into a monstrosity a few days later? My guess is that it didn't even look at this.
      This relationship with reality, carries with itself some pretty dire consequences. It is not the technology, it is not the know how it is the WILL to address these issues. It is too expensive to maintain the fleet for areal suppression. Well when it is not needed, lease it for heaven sake. There are a plenty of wildfires across the globe, which means that areal firefighters could build up experience rapidly and when they are needed in the US they could to their job with minimum cost thanks to it. But one thing would be much more important. This stance would show to the rest of the world, that the US cares and that it is capable and confident. That it understands and that it is active and in charge of its destiny. And that confidence would reflect than onto that bloody wall street that is so "important" now and profits would grow.
      But as it is, this situation just adds another point to the overall score of feeling being helplessness, lost and incapable, and the misery is steadily building from beneath. I find it to be ironic that birth place of atomic age, that pillar of techno grandiosity was simply torched to the ground by nature. If the wildfire can do this, think what peak oil can.

      If this continues, you bet that it wouldn't bring anything good and positive. Than don't be shocked if things go seriously wrong.

      They simply can't go in any other direction.
      Last edited by Versus; 28 Jun 11,, 21:10.