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  • Peak Oil

    Considering the over-reliance of the global economy on a finite commodity, when not IF peak oil hits, how much of a problem do you think it will cause? Fairly pessimistic peak-oil advocates say that peak oil is "just around the bend", ranging from 1-20 years in their estimates.

    I'm interested to hear what the WAB population thinks of the issue of Peak Oil, is there a valid point made by proponents of Peak Oil in the near future - namely things like the bumpy plateau and the control of information over oil reserves, or can potential sites like the Oil Sands last us for a long time

    (Oil sand reserves estimated @ 2/3 of all global hydrocarbons, they account for that much)

    What is your opinion on peak oil, is it a feasible enough threat to plan for, or is it simply another doomsday myth in the vein of many other previous ones?

    Recently having watched a documentary called Collapse, based on an interview of Michael C. Ruppert, I naturally needed to see the counterside to peak-oil alarmists.
    "Who says organization, says oligarchy"

  • #2
    Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
    Considering the over-reliance of the global economy on a finite commodity, when not IF peak oil hits, how much of a problem do you think it will cause? Fairly pessimistic peak-oil advocates say that peak oil is "just around the bend", ranging from 1-20 years in their estimates.
    I don't buy their estimates. They just come out with new ones when the deadlines pass.

    Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
    I'm interested to hear what the WAB population thinks of the issue of Peak Oil, is there a valid point made by proponents of Peak Oil in the near future - namely things like the bumpy plateau and the control of information over oil reserves, or can potential sites like the Oil Sands last us for a long time
    They do not know how much oil there is to be exploited. The reserves get revised upwards as extraction techniques improve. They do not like economists because they junk their speil. The Oil drum is one of their advocacy sites, i call it that because they do not entertain views that differ or challenge their own.

    Peak oil is only a problem for Americans because they pay very much less compared to other countries, if oil sells at $100 a barrel, you're paying little over that because your govt does not tax it much. The Brits pay at the pump as if oil cost $350. ZOMG ZOMG, what happens if oil costs that much in the US. look at europe, thats what you'll turn into and they still use cars.

    Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
    (Oil sand reserves estimated @ 2/3 of all global hydrocarbons, they account for that much)

    What is your opinion on peak oil, is it a feasible enough threat to plan for, or is it simply another doomsday myth in the vein of many other previous ones?

    Recently having watched a documentary called Collapse, based on an interview of Michael C. Ruppert, I naturally needed to see the counterside to peak-oil alarmists.
    Don't waste your time with Ruppert.

    http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/

    Comment


    • #3
      We don't know the exact volume of recoverable oil, but it seems no one argues that oil is a finite resource.
      For now, it's like a black box of unknown volume in which we are sticking straws and sucking juice. How long this will go? No one knows it.
      But one thing we do know. The more oil we use, the more entrenched it becomes in our economy. And when we actually hit the peak, the extent of consequences will depend on how big a share of energy usage provided by oil is.

      Comment


      • #4
        Relatively short answer: Yes, it should be a concern. Optimists place conventional peak oil somewhere between now-2030, perhaps stretching all the way to 2050. Assuming consumption maintains a similar increase as we now see, production in ME countries and in unconventional fields needs to increase significantly as well. Regarding unconventional oil resources, you will see Canada's increased production first, followed by Venezuela, Russia and eventually the US. Unfortunately, even if unconventional resources are tapped, most scenarios indicate ME countries will be able to maintain at least a 30-50% market share as well as a cheaper production cost through conventional means. Seeing as US domestic production even in conventional resources cannot match increase consumption, reference scenarios of most models reflect that the import gap will remain or increase in the future, thus resulting in increased US oil dependence. In short, we should be looking at alternative technologies for transportation or alternative fuel sources.

        Comment


        • #5
          This is de ja vu all over again. Do a search on this forum and you can find this dozens of posts on this subject, if not hundreds.

          Bottom line, peak oil is bullshit. Theoretically it's true, assuming oil is finite.

          The problems with that are:
          1. we don't know how oil is made
          2. we don't know if it's replenished
          3. we don't know how much oil there is
          4. we haven't been drilling for oil

          Artificially restricting output and then use it to suggest "peak oil" exists is bovine excrement of the 1st order.
          "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

          Comment


          • #6
            When you get to the last line of the model that says oil will run out, add a factor for "conservation."

            Guaranteed to totally wreck all preconceived notions.
            Trust me?
            I'm an economist!

            Comment


            • #7
              1. Oil will never run out.
              2. Proven reserves continue to increase.
              3. Despite #1 and #2, oil "dependency" will be broken long before it runs out.
              "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

              Comment


              • #8
                The problems with that are:
                1. we don't know how oil is made
                The science that I have been taught says that long chain hydrocarbons ---> oil is formed via the compression of dead algae and plant matter underground in a process that has taken millions of years to occur. Cite the swamps, bogs and peat of the Carbineferous period.

                This can lead one to conclude that it is replenishment would take millions of years as well.

                The only thing I have seen refuting this is an article in the news a few years ago that referred to a trash-eating microbe that converted trash into oil.

                Scientists find bugs that eat waste and excrete petrol - Times Online

                Nippon Oil and Hitachi aim at mass-producing microbe-derived biofuel

                Reading about abiogenic oil/petrol origin also offers an alternative, though it is disregarded by geologists nowadays, especially after Soviet scientists dumped the model because it could not accurately predict locations of reserves

                Peak oil is only a problem for Americans because they pay very much less compared to other countries, if oil sells at $100 a barrel, you're paying little over that because your govt does not tax it much. The Brits pay at the pump as if oil cost $350. ZOMG ZOMG, what happens if oil costs that much in the US. look at europe, thats what you'll turn into and they still use cars.
                The issue isn't the price-factor, rather the ability of the supply to keep up with the demand, and the potential for the demand to overreach supply, thus causing shortages in areas. The peak-oil folk argue that there simply will be not enough supply. The only way this is going to be tested is when the Chinese and Indian markets start utilizing automobiles with combustion engines en-masse and whether or not oil Producers like OPEC can actually lift up levels of supply.

                As for reserves, I mainly refer to ultimate recoverable reserves, the amount of total oil in the ground and the ability to extract whilst remaining financially competitive.

                2. Proven reserves continue to increase.
                Sir,

                The Saudis and OPEC are not too forthcoming with their data concerning reserves, neither are they all too transparent. I think it's justified to take OPEC's forecasts with a grain of salt considering their history of operating like a cartel.

                The North Sea is running out for the Brits.

                Russia and the Arctic also present other options for Oil Supply, as do Canadian tar sands, I am not ruling that out (if you believe in AGW last one is automatically ruled out), but eventually demand for oil will exceed the supply. Why do we assume that oil supply is infinite and not finite? And what proven reserves are you initially referring to?

                3. Despite #1 and #2, oil "dependency" will be broken long before it runs out
                As long as oil remains financially competitive, it outshadows all alternate technology. Bioplastics for example, are still more expensive to produce than conventional plastics and it's market presence remains quite small.

                In the years 2000 to 2008, worldwide consumption of biodegradable plastics based on starch, sugar, and cellulose - so far the three most important raw materials - has increased by 600 %.[16] The NNFCC predicted global annual capacity would grow more than six-fold to 2.1 million tonnes by 2013.[14] BCC Research forecasts the global market for biodegradable polymers to grow at a compound average growth rate of more than 17 percent through 2012. Even so, bioplastics will encompass a small niche of the overall plastic market, which is forecast to reach 500 billion pounds (220 million tonnes) globally by 2010
                Bioplastic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

                Agriculture also is reliant on oil for the Haber-Bosch process of fixing nitrogen and hydrogen industrially to produce ammonia. It remains more competitive and dominates the agricultural industry, as opposed to more non-oil ammonium fixing processes ( Peak Oil Debunked: 314. PEAK OIL AND FERTILIZER: NO PROBLEM ) which have no existing infrastructure bar one or two factories in Northern Europe and a test facility in Minnesota.

                If oil reserves are indeed that numerous, and thus will remain cost-effective, there is no way that we will wean off them (apart from the AGW scare from Rev.Gore)
                "Who says organization, says oligarchy"

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Shek View Post
                  1. Oil will never run out.
                  2. Proven reserves continue to increase.
                  3. Despite #1 and #2, oil "dependency" will be broken long before it runs out.
                  Interestingly, your statements don't contradict the peak oil theory.

                  1. Oil will never run out.

                  The peak oil crowd doesn't say that oil will run out. They just insist that at some point in the future we won't be able to expand the annual production.

                  2. Proven reserves continue to increase.

                  The question is, will these increases be enough to compensate for depleted fields?

                  3. Despite #1 and #2, oil "dependency" will be broken long before it runs out.

                  Since oil will never completely run out and there will always remain some production, your statement is technically correct.
                  But the real issue at stake is, whether our dependence on oil will be broken before the annual production starts to decrease. Or we will be forced to sober up like an alcoholic who suddenly discovered that the supply of the stuff is drying out.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I hope this is not a of topic question but the subject interests me very much.
                    How much oil did we drill so far ? worldwide I mean.
                    J'ai en marre.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      ...
                      The Oil Drum | World Oil Supplies as Reported in EIA
                      Attached Files

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Did you know that the current global dependance on oil started with British Battleships?
                        sigpic"If your plan is for one year, plant rice. If your plan is for ten years, plant trees.
                        If your plan is for one hundred years, educate children."

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I'm mostly interested from a historical perspective, as from 1800 so far.

                          ps : this is a graph from the good old days ...:)
                          Attached Files
                          Last edited by 1979; 22 Mar 11,, 15:00.
                          J'ai en marre.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by USSWisconsin View Post
                            Did you know that the current global dependance on oil started with British Battleships?
                            I wondered when blame would be apportioned and to whom .......... like I didnt guess .........
                            sigpicFEAR NAUGHT

                            Should raw analytical data ever be passed to policy makers?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by USSWisconsin View Post
                              Did you know that the current global dependance on oil started with British Battleships?
                              Complements of APOC lobbying convincing Churchill as I recall.

                              Comment

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