Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

[Bigfella]

Did they ever produce the T-14? I remember them showcasing it as the most advanced tank ever but the price tag was wild.

As best I can tell proper production hasn't begun. The start date keeps being pushed back. There are claims that a handful have been delivered for testing, but that is about it.

Given the current restrictions they might have issues getting production started. The Kremlin wunderwaffe have been a decided letdown at this stage.

[Albany Rifles]

The Russians never had a whole lot of T-90s, but they have thousands of T-72s, T-80s, BMP-2s in storage. Given what terrible shape Russian vehicles have been in mechanically despite being in active service, I doubt they can be quickly put into action, but they can cannibalize them for spares.

I see miles and miles of dry totted seals, hoses and belts. Track tensioners that won't hold grease. Turrets and cupolas frozen in place sue to corrosion. Closed electronic systems invaded by moisture and rotted.

In our Army Prepositioned Stocks sites, both afloat and land based, the vehicles are exercised regularly. The closed systems are purged on a schedule. Ammunition is inspected and rotated out per schedules. Having the hardware and making sure it works are 2 different things.

[Albany Rifles]

As best I can tell proper production hasn't begun. The start date keeps being pushed back. There are claims that a handful have been delivered for testing, but that is about it.

Given the current restrictions they might have issues getting production started. The Kremlin wunderwaffe have been a decided letdown at this stage.

Supposedly 20 total have been built as of close of 2021...80 more this year. That implies each has been hand built...that is nowhere near enough of a production run to set up and test a production line. And the initial 100 production run are first to be handed over to an operational tank division for user and field testing.

Right now the status of the T-14 in combat briefs well on PowerPoint.

[DOR]

This is what lick spittle looks like.
The author, who has ambitions to be Chief Executive ASAP, was Secretary of Security in Hong Kong during the 2002-03 national security law protests, and is generally viewed by the pan-democrats as horrible.

To The Editor,
The Economist,

“Where will he stop?” (February 26th) portrayed the Russia-Ukraine crisis as totally unprovoked. An alternative question could be “Where will NATO stop?” After the Warsaw Treaty Organisation (Warsaw Pact) was dissolved in 1991, NATO, an American-led military organisation, expanded eastward four times, inching closer and closer to Russia’s border.

In 1999 NATO invited the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland to join, which they did two months later. In 2004 the Baltic states, Romania and three other eastern European countries joined NATO. At a summit in 2008 NATO invited Albania and Croatia to start accession procedures; the two countries joined in 2009. At the same meeting NATO welcomed the aspirations of Ukraine and Georgia to join. At its invitation, Montenegro and North Macedonia joined in 2017 and 2020, over Russia’s strong expression of security reservations.

To further stoke Russian insecurity, in June 2021 a British destroyer, HMS Defender, conducted a freedom of navigation patrol in disputed Crimean waters, apparently in a calculated move to show support for Ukraine. The display of force was followed in October by a pair of American strategic bombers flying over the Black Sea. They had to be escorted away from the Russian border by Russian jets.

Is it really fair to say that the Russia-Ukraine conflict was totally unprovoked, and NATO played no part in fuelling Russian aggression?



REGINA IP
Member of the Legislative Council
Hong Kong

[TopHatter]

EU offers farmers aid, more land to grow due to Ukraine war

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union will distribute 500 million euros ($550 million) to help farmers and allow them to grow crops on fallow land to mitigate food price spikes and potential shortages resulting from Russia's war in Ukraine.

Published on Wednesday, the proposals by the EU's executive European Commission also include assistance to Ukraine to help its farmers sow corn and sunflower seeds and tend to wheat.

Ukraine is a top global player in sunflower oil, with over 50% of world trade, and holds significant shares for wheat, barley and maize, which has already led to surges in prices and concerns about shortages.

The EU executive stressed on Wednesday that there was no immediate threat to food security in the 27-nation bloc given it is a net exporter of cereals.

However, recognising farmers will face higher fuel and feed prices, the EU will distribute 500 million euros to aid farmers hardest hit by the crisis, particularly if they are engaged in more environmentally friendly production.

The Brussels-based Commission will also let farmers temporarily grow crops on the almost 6% of EU agricultural land that is set aside to boost biodiversity.

The Commission believes this, along with record Indian exports, will help cover some of the 20 million tonnes of wheat which Ukraine normally exports.

The Commission also proposed an emergency support programme of 330 million euros to Ukraine, some of which is designed to help farmers.

Ukraine's minister of agrarian policy and food, Roman Leshchenko, told EU lawmakers this week that his country normally exported 80% of its agricultural and food production but was now limiting that to feed its own population.

He said most of Ukraine's grain and harvest production used to be exported from sea ports, now destroyed or blocked, and that farmers were struggling with the spring sowing campaign amid shelling.

"We must do everything possible to avert a hurricane of hunger and a meltdown of the global food system," he said.

Speaking to the chamber on Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed Leshchenko's call to free up Ukraine's wheat sea exports.

"The consequences will be felt from Lebanon, Egypt and Tunisia, to Africa and the Far East. I call on (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to let those ships go. Otherwise he will not only be responsible for war but also for famine."

Moscow says its "special military operation" is to disarm its neighbour. It denies targeting civilians and has said that Western sanctions on Russia are akin to a declaration of war.
________

[Albany Rifles]

EU offers farmers aid, more land to grow due to Ukraine war

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union will distribute 500 million euros ($550 million) to help farmers and allow them to grow crops on fallow land to mitigate food price spikes and potential shortages resulting from Russia's war in Ukraine.

Published on Wednesday, the proposals by the EU's executive European Commission also include assistance to Ukraine to help its farmers sow corn and sunflower seeds and tend to wheat.

Ukraine is a top global player in sunflower oil, with over 50% of world trade, and holds significant shares for wheat, barley and maize, which has already led to surges in prices and concerns about shortages.

The EU executive stressed on Wednesday that there was no immediate threat to food security in the 27-nation bloc given it is a net exporter of cereals.

However, recognising farmers will face higher fuel and feed prices, the EU will distribute 500 million euros to aid farmers hardest hit by the crisis, particularly if they are engaged in more environmentally friendly production.

The Brussels-based Commission will also let farmers temporarily grow crops on the almost 6% of EU agricultural land that is set aside to boost biodiversity.

The Commission believes this, along with record Indian exports, will help cover some of the 20 million tonnes of wheat which Ukraine normally exports.

The Commission also proposed an emergency support programme of 330 million euros to Ukraine, some of which is designed to help farmers.

Ukraine's minister of agrarian policy and food, Roman Leshchenko, told EU lawmakers this week that his country normally exported 80% of its agricultural and food production but was now limiting that to feed its own population.

He said most of Ukraine's grain and harvest production used to be exported from sea ports, now destroyed or blocked, and that farmers were struggling with the spring sowing campaign amid shelling.

"We must do everything possible to avert a hurricane of hunger and a meltdown of the global food system," he said.

Speaking to the chamber on Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed Leshchenko's call to free up Ukraine's wheat sea exports.

"The consequences will be felt from Lebanon, Egypt and Tunisia, to Africa and the Far East. I call on (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to let those ships go. Otherwise he will not only be responsible for war but also for famine."

Moscow says its "special military operation" is to disarm its neighbour. It denies targeting civilians and has said that Western sanctions on Russia are akin to a declaration of war.
________

What a difference of attitudes just 2 generations make.

This is a dramatic offer from the EU recognizing they need to step in to help stave off global famine.

[Double Edge]

Who couldn't see this one coming !!!

He's had all the time in world to game how this plays out

Yes, gas is just a commodity but its a difficult to replace commodity.

Vladimir Putin Wants Europe to Pay for Gas in Rubles | WSJ | Mar 23 2022

By Georgi Kantchev , Caitlin Ostroff and Kim Mackrael
Updated March 23, 2022 2:03 pm ET

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wants his country to only accept rubles in gas deals with European countries and other customers, adding a new financial dimension to tensions over energy supplies while the war in Ukraine rages.

Mr. Putin said Russia would refuse to accept payment for natural-gas supplies in currencies “that have compromised themselves,” including dollars and euros, and will switch to payments in rubles, state newswire TASS reported.

“I have decided to implement a set of measures to transfer payment for our gas supplies to unfriendly countries into Russian rubles,” Mr. Putin told a government meeting.

Gas prices in Europe spiked after Mr. Putin’s remarks, with Europe’s regional gas benchmark, the TTF month-ahead contract, rising 19% before retreating and ending the day lower. Brent crude oil prices also rose around 5% to above $120 a barrel.

Russia supplies around 40% of the EU’s natural gas, a dependency that has cast a shadow over Europe’s response to the war. European leaders have scrambled since the war broke out to reduce the region’s reliance on Russian energy. Officials announced fresh legislation Wednesday to require gas storage facilities be filled to minimum levels and proposed the creation of a task force to coordinate gas purchases.

Mr. Putin said that Moscow would continue to supply gas in accordance with existing contracts. Russia’s list of unfriendly countries includes EU members, the U.K., the U.S. and others.

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Wednesday that Mr. Putin’s demand constituted a breach of contract. Mr. Habeck said that Berlin will discuss a response with its European partners.

Most global commodity deals are conducted in dollars—and to a lesser extent euros—and it isunclear how Russia could force its biggest customers to change. Sourcing rubles for Western utilities could be difficult if not impossible. Trading in the Russian currency has been severely hampered by Western sanctions as well as Russia’s capital controls, which seek to prevent capital flight from the country.

The move could backfire for Russia. “Insisting on ruble payments may give buyers cause to reopen other aspects of their contracts—such as the duration—and simply speed up their exit from Russian gas altogether,” said Vinicius Romano, senior analyst at Rystad Energy consulting firm.

Payments for energy supplies were granted specific carve-outs in U.S. and EU sanctions to ensure the flow of energy and dollars could continue. Western nations designed sanctions to create maximum pressure on Russia’s economy without boomeranging on themselves.

Even if buyers of Russia’s energy switched payments to rubles, there might be limited effect. Russia has already asked its companies that take payment in dollars and euros to swap 80% of their revenue into rubles, a way to create demand for the currency. But it has the practical impact of putting the onus of supporting the ruble on Russia’s customers, rather than the central bank or domestic companies.

The Russian ruble gained 7% to trade at around 98 rubles to the dollar after Mr. Putin’s remarks.

Russia’s government takes hold of dollars generated through energy sales. Sanctions on Russia’s central bank, however, have limited the country’s ability to use them.

Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was surprised by the sweep of Western sanctions.

“When the central bank’s reserves [were frozen], no one would think, out of those who made predictions, what sanctions the West might apply,“ he said on Wednesday.

Mr. Putin directed the central bank and the government to determine the procedure for such transactions within a week.

Jason Tuvey, a senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said that the move was likely aimed at boosting the ruble and reducing Russia’s reliance on Western financial infrastructure. However, the downside is that it would reduce Russia’s already diminished inflow of hard currencies needed to pay for imports.

“Ultimately, I guess this simply reinforces the idea that Russia will continue its drift toward autarky,” Mr. Tuvey said, referring to an inward-looking economic system that seeks to diminish ties with the outside world.

Europe, meanwhile, is under heavy pressure to address concerns about the security of its energy supplies and its reliance on Russia.

The European Commission proposed legislation that would set a minimum natural-gas storage level of 80% by Nov. 1, a move that is meant to ensure enough energy supply to get through next winter’s heating season. The minimum storage level would increase to 90% in subsequent years, it said.

The commission also laid out options for possible emergency measures to deal with surging electricity prices. Those could include financial compensation, either at the retail or wholesale level, or a regulatory cap for the maximum price that could be charged for gas.

Ben McWilliams, a research analyst with Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, said the EU should also be putting more emphasis on reducing its overall energy use.

“Demand has to be reduced,” Mr. McWilliams said. “If we live in this world of subsidizing prices and protecting consumers by artificially keeping prices low—which means demand stays high—we’re heading for a huge crunch.”

Articles seems to imply rubles are scarce so he will have to reverse this decision. Really ?

No rubles. No gas. Otherwise sit down and negotiate.

[Ironduke]

I think the author raises some pretty good arguments here.

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/r...ne-damage-now/

Russia can be made to pay for Ukraine damage now

Robert E. Litan

Nonresident Senior Fellow - Economic Studies, Center on Regulation and Markets

Billions of people around the world are watching helplessly as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accelerates into its third week, continuing to kill more innocent people every day, while destroying infrastructure throughout the country and forcing millions of refugees into neighboring European countries.

There is one positive step that the U.S. and like-minded countries should begin developing immediately to ensure that Russia at least is held responsible for the cost of humanitarian assistance, reparations, and eventual reconstruction: Tap Russian foreign exchange reserves that are held in central banks outside the country and that have been frozen by their governments.

According to the most recent data supplied by Russia’s central bank, as of June 30, 2021, Russia’s foreign currency reserves totaled $585 billion, though not all of this would be accessible to pay for damages. That’s because Russia holds a good portion of the total in gold at home (22%), a substantial amount of renminbi in China (14%), and some in international institutions (5%). Subtracting these amounts leaves about $350 billion in “available reserves” for distribution—mostly held by France (12%), Germany (10%), Japan (10%) and the U.S. (7%), with the rest scattered among many other countries.

In the past, reparations have been paid after hostilities ended by the aggressor country—that was Germany in the first two world wars. Now, the fact that many countries already have control over Russia’s holdings of foreign currency means that, in effect, reparations for the Ukrainian invasion have been pre-funded by Russia itself. This is an admittedly unique circumstance, but there is a basis in international law for enabling nations that hold these reserves to commit them to pay for damages.

Russia has committed on a massive scale what under U.S. law is considered an “intentional tort”: unprovoked violence, which requires at a minimum that the aggressor pay damages for human suffering, deaths, and property losses. In December 2005 the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution affirming a variation of intentional tort doctrine by providing a right to reparations to victims of human rights abuses under international law.

The U.N. resolution is not self-enforcing, however. Instead, it charges member states to establish “national programs for reparation and other assistance to victims in the event that the parties liable for the harm suffered are unable or unwilling to meet their obligations.” It’s a safe bet that Russia won’t be willing to meet these obligations, so other countries now holding Russian reserves can best enforce the reparations principle by agreeing on a common plan.

In theory, reparations and other assistance for Ukraine would have the most international legitimacy if it were administered by the U.N., though there’s no precedent for the U.N. doing so. Moreover, even if the U.N. General Assembly—which already has censured Russia for its invasion of Ukraine—were to establish such a program, Russia, and perhaps China, would veto it at the Security Council.

Nonetheless, a coalition of willing states could establish their own special reparations task force to rectify the massive human rights wrongs committed by Russia in Ukraine. Ideally, the task force would be a relatively small, nimble new body led by internationally recognized names with a reputation for integrity on par with the late Kofi Annan, the former U.N. Secretary General who won a Nobel Peace Prize. It should be staffed by experts provided by countries whose central banks hold Russian foreign currency reserves, along with others from nonprofit and private sectors, preferably with government expertise. Representatives of the Ukrainian government should be involved.

[Versus]

Huh, where to start.
First, there will be huge disruptions in energy supply and availability. This wave will be accompanied with financial tremors and it will last till mid summer. When the autumn starts, financial problems will be bigger than energy ones and they will dominate till the winter comes. When the winter comes the energy problems will rise to the level of financial problems. Next year, energy and financial problems will be accompanied by the food shortages, both in Eu and across the Middle east and Africa.. They will not go away yet reinforced by this new set of problems. This will be a second wave. Third wave will hit IT industry as Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of rare earths and special chemicals needed for digital economy. In the third wave the digital world will go down. Expect rapid increase in poverty and crime up to the point of full blown collapse of the advanced economies and introduction of martial law. All that army and assets that are building up now, "for Russian threat" they are not intended for that, yet for what is about to come on the domestic soil. Over all time till the dust settles, 3 to 5 years.

[DOR]

Consequences.

• The czar orders imperial gas to be paid for with rubles.
• If customers actually want to buy such gas, they must first buy rubles.
• When customers buy rubles, the value rises.
• A rising ruble reduces imported inflation, reduces the value of assets held abroad, and reduces the competitiveness of exports.

[Officer of Engineers]

I think the author raises some pretty good arguments here.

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/r...ne-damage-now/

Won't happen for one reason and one reason alone. Never set a precedent that can be used against you in the future.

[Ironduke]

Won't happen for one reason and one reason alone. Never set a precedent that can be used against you in the future.

The precedent has already been set, in Bank Markazi v. Peterson, in which frozen assets of the Iranian national bank totaling $1.75 billion were paid out to the plaintiffs. The award was appealed to the Supreme Court, and upheld 6-2.

a financial asset that is—

(A) held in the United States for a foreign securities intermediary doing business in the United States;

(B) a blocked asset (whether or not subsequently unblocked) that is property described in subsection (b); and

(C) equal in value to a financial asset of Iran, including an asset of the central bank or monetary authority of the Government of Iran or any agency or instrumentality of that Government, that such foreign securities intermediary or a related intermediary holds abroad

shall be subject to execution or attachment in aid of execution in order to satisfy any judgment to the extent of any compensatory damages awarded against Iran for damages for personal injury or death caused by an act of torture, extrajudicial killing, aircraft sabotage, or hostage-taking, or the provision of material support or resources for such an act.

— 22 U.S.C. § 8772(a)(1)

[Officer of Engineers]

The precedent has already been set, in Bank Markazi v. Peterson, in which frozen assets of the Iranian national bank totaling $1.75 billion were paid out to the plaintiffs. The award was appealed to the Supreme Court, and upheld 6-2.

That precedent was set against damages suffered by the US and US Nationals within US jusridication. The US has no jurisdiction over relationship between the UKR and Russia.

Even accepting that, the outcome of this war has not been decided. While Russia is most likely unable to win, it would not be Kiev dictating terms. In historic terms, it would Kiev paying tribute to Moscow to get her to leave which will null any US Judicary Decision made on Kiev's behalf.

In other words, you're allowing other countries to punish the US in any future wars that the US is going to win. That would not be acceptable to any power.

[statquo]

Hungary PM rejects Zelensky appeal for weapons and sanctions

Hungarian PM Viktor Orban has dismissed an appeal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for weapons and tougher sanctions against Russia, saying it would be "against Hungary's interests".

Orban rejected Zelensky's demands at the European Council "because they are contrary to the interests of Hungary", Hungarian government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs said in a statement.

"Hungary wants to stay out of this war, so it will not allow the transfer of arms and weapons to Ukraine," Kovacs said.

Orban says that the ethnic-Hungarian minority in the west of Ukraine would be threatened if Hungary sent weapons to Kyiv.

Hungary, an EU and Nato member, has refused to send military aid to Kyiv, or let it cross its territory. However, it has allowed more than half a million Ukrainian refugees to enter its territory.

Orban, a nationalist, has cultivated close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent years.

Zelensky used an address to EU leaders on Thursday to call on Orban to approve expanding sanctions, let weapons through to Ukraine, and cut off business ties with Russia.

"Listen, Viktor, do you know what's going on in Mariupol?" Zelensky said, referring to Ukraine's besieged south-eastern port city.

"Once and for all, you should decide who you are with," he said.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60856533

[astralis]

That precedent was set against damages suffered by the US and US Nationals within US jusridication. The US has no jurisdiction over relationship between the UKR and Russia.

Even accepting that, the outcome of this war has not been decided. While Russia is most likely unable to win, it would not be Kiev dictating terms. In historic terms, it would Kiev paying tribute to Moscow to get her to leave which will null any US Judicary Decision made on Kiev's behalf.

In other words, you're allowing other countries to punish the US in any future wars that the US is going to win. That would not be acceptable to any power.

At this stage, do you really think the Ukrainians will need to pay tribute of any sort to Moscow?

it seems to me that the Ukrainian maximalist war aims (complete liberation of DNR/LNR/Crimea) is now in the realm of possible (not yet probable).