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Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

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  • Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

    I don't want to spam the other thread which is great for operational and tactical stuff. So putting some things regarding broader economic, political and strategical stuff here.

  • #2
    https://twitter.com/typesfast/status...56877731094528

    Implications for aviation and air freight

    https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/s...76840937136130

    Major changes to German policy
    Last edited by tantalus; 27 Feb 22,, 13:34.

    Comment


    • #3
      https://twitter.com/eigenrobot/statu...80760421359618

      Putins PR meltdown and why it matters...

      https://twitter.com/timurkuran/statu...28842483945478

      Tail risks to Putin

      Comment


      • #4
        https://twitter.com/Tom_Fowdy/status...31092172779520

        1st time in history China has major geopolitical clout in a european war

        https://twitter.com/RTPerson3/status...31514779553794

        A thread on freezing russian central bank funds in the west
        Last edited by tantalus; 27 Feb 22,, 13:43.

        Comment


        • #5
          https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1497043084856619011

          Thinking about the implications of a cyber war escalation between the USA and Russia

          Comment


          • #6

            SWIFT: The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications.

            For 45 years, this “cooperative society” has facilitated financial transactions among the world's banks. Prior to that, First National City Bank (Citibank) was the main – and private – conduit, which raised concerns among European (and other) institutions.

            SWIFT does not transfer funds, but only encoded messages containing payment instructions. There is no clearing or settlement system; that is done through other means, such as TARGET2 in the Eurozone.

            SWIFT links 200 jurisdictions' financial institutions, and is owned by its members. In 2012, and for the first time, it barred four banks' access to the system as part of the US-led sanctions against Iran. The restrictions were lifted four years later. The society refused a 2014 UK request to bar Russia from the system following the first invasion of the Ukraine, but agreed to do so this month.

            Trust me?
            I'm an economist!

            Comment


            • #7
              https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1497550173597093894

              A thread musings on second order effects of targeting a nuclear nation via swift in an increasingly digital world

              https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1497855053092339712

              and a follow up...

              All economcic eyes now turn to the developing story around the russian central bank...
              Last edited by tantalus; 27 Feb 22,, 19:19.

              Comment


              • #8
                https://twitter.com/gametheorizing/s...92526401134596

                A case for the power of memes and how the internet is shifting the calculus...

                Comment


                • #9
                  https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/...12270104084483

                  A case for providing Putin an off ramp
                  Last edited by tantalus; 27 Feb 22,, 19:35.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro says his government will remain neutral regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

                    Bolsonaro says he had a two-hour long conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday to talk about the war and assured Russia’s leader that Brazil will keep a neutral position.

                    Brazil’s ultra conservative president visited Putin in Moscow earlier this month before the invasion and says he does not want to “bring the consequences of the conflict” to Brazil.

                    Bolsonaro says that Russia has no intention of carrying out any massacres and that in some regions of Ukraine “90% of the people want to get closer to Russia.”

                    The Brazilian president also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, saying people “entrusted the fate of the nation to a comedian.”

                    ___
                    “Fascism not only promotes violence but relishes it, viscerally so. It cherishes audacity, bravado and superbia, promotes charismatic leaders, demagogues and ‘strong men’, and seeks to flood or control the media.”

                    "Donald Trump and his supporters and allies are a clear and present danger to American democracy" ~ Judge J. Michael Luttig

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      More Countries Ban Russian Flights From Their Airspace

                      A growing number of countries announced Sunday that they were closing their airspace to Russian planes in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

                      Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain joined at least a dozen European countries that had made similar announcements.

                      “There is no room in Dutch airspace for a regime that applies unnecessary and brutal violence,” the infrastructure minister for the Netherlands, Mark Harbers, said on Twitter.

                      Denmark’s minister of foreign affairs, Jeppe Kofod, said he would push for Russian aircraft to be banned from the entirety of the European Union’s airspace at a meeting of the bloc’s ministers of foreign affairs Sunday.

                      Low-cost, Hungary-based airline Wizz Air also said Sunday that it would cancel its flights to Russia for at least a week. The airline said that, because of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union and the United States, it would not be able to access spare parts for its planes in Russia.

                      Britain has banned all flights by Russia’s flagship carrier, Aeroflot, from its airspace, and German airline Lufthansa said Saturday that it would not use Russian airspace for the next week.

                      Germany banned Russian aircraft, with the exception of humanitarian flights, from its airspace starting Sunday for the next three months.

                      In response to the measures, the Russian government has banned flights from several European countries, and S7, Russia’s second-largest airline, suspended its flights to Europe.
                      ______
                      “Fascism not only promotes violence but relishes it, viscerally so. It cherishes audacity, bravado and superbia, promotes charismatic leaders, demagogues and ‘strong men’, and seeks to flood or control the media.”

                      "Donald Trump and his supporters and allies are a clear and present danger to American democracy" ~ Judge J. Michael Luttig

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        BP quits Russia in up to $25 billion hit after Ukraine invasion

                        LONDON (Reuters) - BP is abandoning its stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft in an abrupt and costly end to three decades of operating in the energy-rich country, marking the most significant move yet by a Western company in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

                        Rosneft accounts for around half of BP's oil and gas reserves and a third of its production and divesting the 19.75% stake will result in charges of up to $25 billion, the British company said, without saying how it plans to extricate itself.

                        "I have been deeply shocked and saddened by the situation unfolding in Ukraine and my heart goes out to everyone affected. It has caused us to fundamentally rethink bp's position with Rosneft," BP Chief Executive Bernard Looney said.

                        The rapid retreat represents a dramatic exit for BP, the biggest foreign investor in Russia, and puts the spotlight on other Western companies with operations in the country including France's TotalEnergies and Britain's Shell, amid an escalating crisis between the West and Moscow.

                        It also underscores growing pressure from Western governments on their companies to curtail operations in Russia as they widen a net of economic sanctions against Moscow.

                        British Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, who on Friday had expressed "concern" over BP's Rosneft, welcomed the decision.

                        "Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine must be a wake up call for British businesses with commercial interests in (President Vladimir) Putin's Russia," Kwarteng said on Twitter.

                        Rosneft blamed BP's decision on "unprecedented political pressure", Russian news agencies reported, saying 30 years of successful cooperation had been ruined.

                        Susannah Streeter, senior investment analyst at British retail stock broker Hargreaves Lansdown, said it will be "highly difficult" for BP "to recover anywhere near what was considered to be the full value" of Rosneft.

                        Last week, Looney said that BP was sticking to its Russian business and would comply with any Western sanctions on Moscow.

                        Earlier, Putin put Russia's nuclear deterrent on high alert in the face of Western reprisals for his invasion of Ukraine, which included blocking access to the SWIFT international payment system for some Russian banks.

                        And Norway's $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, will divest its Russian assets after the Ukraine invasion, its prime minister said.

                        DIVIDEND BLOW

                        BP said its move and financial hit will not impact its short and long term financial targets within its strategy to shift away from oil and gas to low-carbon fuels and renewables energy.

                        But Hargreaves Lansdown's Streeter said a write down of this magnitude is "likely to limit the extent to which BP can continue to accelerate its transition towards renewables."

                        Looney and his predecessor as CEO Bob Dudley will both step down from the board of Rosneft, which BP acquired a shareholding in as part of its $12.5 billion TNK-BP stake sale in 2013.

                        BP held a board meeting on Friday and another on Sunday where the decision to quit Rosneft, as well as two other joint ventures BP has with Rosneft in Russia, was taken, a spokesperson for the company said.

                        It will take an $11 billion foreign exchange non-cash charge after the exit from Rosneft, which BP will no longer include in its accounts. BP said it also expects a second non-cash charge of up to $14 billion, for the "carrying value" of Rosneft.

                        BP received revenue from Rosneft in the form of dividends which totalled around $640 million in 2021, roughly 3% of its overall cash flow from operations.

                        The company currently has around 200 employees in Russia, most of whom are local staff, the BP spokesperson said.

                        Many other Western energy companies have operations in Russia, including TotalEnergies which holds a 19.4% Novatek stake and 20% of the Yamal LNG project.

                        "In the current environment any European or American company with assets in Russia must be considering similar moves," Eurasia Group analyst Henning Gloystein told Reuters.
                        ________
                        “Fascism not only promotes violence but relishes it, viscerally so. It cherishes audacity, bravado and superbia, promotes charismatic leaders, demagogues and ‘strong men’, and seeks to flood or control the media.”

                        "Donald Trump and his supporters and allies are a clear and present danger to American democracy" ~ Judge J. Michael Luttig

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          So the next question, how realistic would it be to ban Russian flagged merchant vessels from western ports and what would the likely economic impacts be for both Russia and the West?
                          If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Monash View Post
                            So the next question, how realistic would it be to ban Russian flagged merchant vessels from western ports and what would the likely economic impacts be for both Russia and the West?
                            Realistic? It's being done.

                            The French Coastguard intercepted a Russian freighter bound for St. Petersburg in the Channel yesterday and interred it at Boulogne-sur-Mer. The freighter is owned by a bank that is under sanctions.

                            Russian narrative version: https://tass.com/russia/1412057

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by kato View Post
                              Realistic? It's being done.

                              The French Coastguard intercepted a Russian freighter bound for St. Petersburg in the Channel yesterday and interred it at Boulogne-sur-Mer. The freighter is owned by a bank that is under sanctions.

                              Russian narrative version: https://tass.com/russia/1412057
                              Sounds like that might be a specific case. I assume other ships owned by that or another sanctioned financial institution would suffer a similar fate but what about Russian merchant shipping in general?
                              If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                              Comment

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