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  • Originally posted by astralis View Post
    here's the White House Council of Economic Advisers COVID modeling from the beginning of LAST week.

    [ATTACH]48625[/ATTACH]

    can't wait-- by tomorrow we're going to have zero deaths from COVID!

    so great to hear that Kevin Hassett, noted epidemiologist and author of Dow 36,000 (1999), has been so on point again.
    Why they think they deaths will drop when lockdowns start a calibrated unwinding ?

    If deaths follow infections and infections increase with less social distancing, why do deaths drop.

    I'd love for that to be true.

    Once you unwind you reach a steady rate of infections & deaths, and its for the state to decide whether they can handle it.

    You become Sweden.

    The graphs don't go down they become asymptotic at whatever rate they settle on.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 15 May 20,, 22:03.

    Comment


    • It's starting slowly

      Why contact tracing may be a mess in America | MTR | May 16 2020

      Alaska, California, Massachusetts, New York, and others are collectively hiring and training tens of thousands of people to interview infected patients, identify people they may have exposed, and convince everyone at risk to stay away from others for several weeks.

      Contact tracing is a proven tool in containing outbreaks of highly infectious diseases. But this particular virus could pose significant challenges to tracing programs in the US, based on new studies and emerging evidence from initial efforts. Stubbornly high new infection levels in some areas, the continued shortage of tests, and American attitudes toward privacy could all hamstring the effectiveness of such programs.
      references this NPR article

      States Nearly Doubled Plans For Contact Tracers Since NPR Surveyed Them 10 Days Ago | NPR | May 07 2020

      In all, 44 states and the District of Columbia now have plans to expand their contact tracing workforce, reaching a total of 66,197 workers — an increase by 30,000 of the number that were planned last week when we first published.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 16 May 20,, 22:20.

      Comment


      • Why they think they deaths will drop when lockdowns start a calibrated unwinding ?

        If deaths follow infections and infections increase with less social distancing, why do deaths drop.

        I'd love for that to be true.

        Once you unwind you reach a steady rate of infections & deaths, and its for the state to decide whether they can handle it.

        You become Sweden.

        The graphs don't go down they become asymptotic at whatever rate they settle on.
        Kevin Hassett literally plugged one of those downward trend blips -- which is from reporting lag-- into an Excel spreadsheet cubic formula to project a permanent downward trend.

        it's transparently stupid and dishonest, which is par for course for the entire administration.
        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

        Comment


        • Originally posted by astralis View Post
          Kevin Hassett literally plugged one of those downward trend blips -- which is from reporting lag-- into an Excel spreadsheet cubic formula to project a permanent downward trend.

          it's transparently stupid and dishonest, which is par for course for the entire administration.
          The troughs on the line graph you've posted, and the bar graphs I've seen over at the Worldometers website, are always on Saturdays through Mondays.

          But yeah, it's just reporting lag.
          "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

          Comment


          • Eric Trump Claims COVID-19 Will 'Magically' Vanish After Election Day

            Taking a page from his dad’s playbook, Eric Trump insisted in an interview Saturday that COVID-19 will “magically” disappear — after Election Day.

            He claimed that the coronavirus that has killed 312,000 people around the globe — including nearly 90,000 Americans — is a ploy cooked up by the Democrats to stop Donald Trump from rallying his supporters at campaign events.

            Democratic presidential frontrunner Joe Biden “loves this,” Trump’s middle son told Jeanine Pirro on Fox News.

            “They think they’re taking away Donald Trump’s greatest tool, which is to go into an arena and fill it with 50,000 people every time.” (Trump has rarely, if ever, attracted a crowed of 50,000, despite repeated claims that he has.)

            “You watch,” Eric added. “They will milk it every single day between now and November 3rd.”

            “And guess what – after November 3rd, coronavirus will magically, all of the sudden, go away and disappear and everybody will be able to reopen.”

            He called it a “very cognizant strategy.”

            In late February the president insisted that COVID-19 would “disappear” one day “like a miracle.”

            In fact, there will likely be a second wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter, one that might be even worse than the outbreak over the past few months.
            ______________

            Yep, COVID is a hoax cooked up by the Dems just to get at Donald Trump.

            90,000 dead hoaxes.
            "Proud Boys - Stand back and stand by" ~ President Donald J Trump 30 September 2020

            "Standing down and standing by sir"~ Proud Boys 30 September 2020

            “Trump basically said to go fuck them up...This makes me so happy.” Joe Biggs, a leader of the Proud Boys 30 September 2020

            Comment


            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
              so the most worrying thing about this is that it's not just him. people around Trump-- I think the press mentioned Kushner-- are pressing him to do LESS testing because less testing means fewer confirmed cases!

              christ.
              Less testing means more deaths. As people who develop symptoms are told to come back when they have more symptoms at which point its harder to save them.

              Less testing makes sense when you have a low positivity rate. Low means under 3%, around 10 states qualify.

              Use the same idea for different counties in a state, you will also find counties that have low positivity rates.

              https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity

              It makes sense to use tests in states that have higher positivity rates than waste them in states with lower positivity.

              The way to get the rates down is to increase testing. Number of tests done seems to be holding at the moment.

              Whether it can be sped up...in the coming weeks.
              Last edited by Double Edge; 17 May 20,, 22:08.

              Comment


              • Most US States Fall Short of Recommended Testing Levels | AP | May 15 2020

                Among the states falling short are Texas and Georgia, which recently moved aggressively to reopen stores, malls, barbershops and other businesses.
                Let's watch these two over the coming weeks and see how they're doing

                The first stage of Maryland's reopening began Friday evening, when some retail stores were allowed to reopen and a stay-at-home order was lifted. Some of the hardest-hit parts of the state, including the suburbs of Washington, D.C., extended restrictions for residents and businesses.

                Maryland averaged 4,265 tests per day this week, compared with about 4,900 the previous week. Nearly 22 percent of people tested positive in Maryland on average over the last seven days.

                Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan made headlines last month when the state acquired 500,000 test kits from a South Korean company in a confidential deal, but Maryland has not had all the components needed for testing — like swabs — to meet demand. Hogan said Maryland just received swabs this week from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

                “We requested 350,000,” Hogan said Wednesday. “They’ve committed to 225,000, and I think we got 75,000 yesterday with another 125,000 that are supposedly days away, along with the tubes and the stuff that goes with them. So it’s not enough, but it helps us.”
                He feels confident because he got more tests. But a positivity nearing 20% is pretty damn high to be opening up.
                Last edited by Double Edge; 17 May 20,, 21:10.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by troung View Post
                  So....that's... ummm... not a call for violence...

                  Good.
                  Thank god Trump wasn't calling for violence, eh?. God only knows what would happen. /s

                  Click image for larger version

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                  "Proud Boys - Stand back and stand by" ~ President Donald J Trump 30 September 2020

                  "Standing down and standing by sir"~ Proud Boys 30 September 2020

                  “Trump basically said to go fuck them up...This makes me so happy.” Joe Biggs, a leader of the Proud Boys 30 September 2020

                  Comment


                  • We have to live with the virus for the foreseeable future, until a vaccine is developed, which is still at the very least 6 months away. People under 10 and over 60 need to maintain social distancing norms, and if possible stay at home for some more time. We can't let this virus affect us mentally. Economies around the world has been wrecked. We need to open up slowly and restart our respective economic engines. There is no other way.
                    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                    Comment


                    • agreed. what pisses me off is that the lockdown was just meant to buy time for public health infrastructure to work: for hospitals not to be overwhelmed, for testing, for case load to decline so governments could do contact tracing.

                      in the US, much of this time was frittered away. the most basic part -- hospitals not being overwhelmed-- was largely achieved; however, testing took a LONG time to get going, and we're not in any sort of position to realistically do contact tracing.

                      moreover, the lockdown implementation was done on a state-by-state basis, with widely varying levels of intensity and leakage. in this way, we got 80% of the pain for 40% of the benefit.
                      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                        agreed. what pisses me off is that the lockdown was just meant to buy time for public health infrastructure to work: for hospitals not to be overwhelmed, for testing, for case load to decline so governments could do contact tracing.

                        in the US, much of this time was frittered away. the most basic part -- hospitals not being overwhelmed-- was largely achieved; however, testing took a LONG time to get going, and we're not in any sort of position to realistically do contact tracing.

                        moreover, the lockdown implementation was done on a state-by-state basis, with widely varying levels of intensity and leakage. in this way, we got 80% of the pain for 40% of the benefit.
                        ^ Exactly what India did. The blame rests fully with your President. I used to give examples of America this, and America that. Well, w.r.t Covid-19, I am keeping my mouth shut when the discussion revolves around America. Your President has cost your country 91K lives. And on top of that his outlandish statements, that the far-right laps up as gospel.
                        Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                          agreed. what pisses me off is that the lockdown was just meant to buy time for public health infrastructure to work: for hospitals not to be overwhelmed, for testing, for case load to decline so governments could do contact tracing.

                          in the US, much of this time was frittered away. the most basic part -- hospitals not being overwhelmed-- was largely achieved; however, testing took a LONG time to get going, and we're not in any sort of position to realistically do contact tracing.

                          moreover, the lockdown implementation was done on a state-by-state basis, with widely varying levels of intensity and leakage. in this way, we got 80% of the pain for 40% of the benefit.
                          What if more of that benefit is yet to come ?

                          Today you say this, but what about three months from now or later.

                          Meaning if what the US went through is normal as far as the virus goes then every country with community spread is going to have to go through some variant of what the US did.

                          This means you are further along the curve than most countries.

                          The tricky part with the US is you have a lock down but there were leaks and it was of varying intensity. It's as if you had a soft lockdown. Swedish model. Not by design but by outcome.

                          Does this mean opening up will be less troublesome as a result ? we only find out when states start opening up.

                          Whether you like it or not the US said one thing and implemented something else. There is more herd immunity in the US than in countries that locked down more fully with less leakages.

                          Keep in mind other countries that have this problem well controlled have to open borders at some point. This means they risk restarting the cycle again.

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                          That is Fla. They call it a no change state.

                          They kept their beaches open and nothing changed : )
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 18 May 20,, 21:36.

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                          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            There is more herd immunity in the US than in countries that locked down more fully with less leakages
                            Do you even know what herd immunity is?

                            Obviously not.
                            "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                              Do you even know what herd immunity is?

                              Obviously not.
                              You're further along that path than other countries.

                              The Swedes make it clear that the by product of their strategy is herd immunity not the goal.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                                You're further along that path than other countries.

                                The Swedes make it clear that the by product of their strategy is herd immunity not the goal.
                                We’ve had this conversation before.
                                Did someone conclusively (dis)prove that people who have (had) COVID-19 can(not) be reinfected?
                                Until and unless that basic question is fully answered, there can be no herd immunity.
                                Trust me?
                                I'm an economist!

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