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COVID-2019 in America, effect on politics and economy

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  • Q-2 2020: Worst Ever.

    The US economy contracted 31.7% from the first quarter to the second, right in line with expectations. The year-on-year change was -9.1%. Both are the worst-ever recorded (modern data).

    Private consumption accounted for 80% of the decline, dropping 6.9% from Q-2 2019. Capital investment (one-third of the drop-off) fell 9%, exports were off 9.5%, and imports by 15%.

    bea.gov
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

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    • is congress gridlock an incalculable danger here?

      All the money being pumped in from the bottom and flowing up is at risk of stopping. if consumer spending drops off, and the virus grows in the winter it could be a very nasty combination for the poor of america...

      I always thought that economic collapses rest on tipping points such at that that nobody can really model or predict....

      Comment


      • The Budget

        Average per quarter, US$ billion

        _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Apr 2016 – Mar 2018 _ _ Apr 2018 – Mar 2020 _ _ Apr-Jun 2020
        Federal Current Revenue: $5,442.4 bn _ _ _ _ $5,782.5 bn _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $5,560.8 bn
        Hmm. No big drop in revenue, even though April 15 was kicked down the road.
        Personal tax receipts were down 3.8% from normal, corporate -18.3% … The Trumpet's tax give-away.

        Fed Current Expenditures: $6,402.3 bn _ _ _ _ $7,015.0 bn _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $10,703.4 bn
        Big jumps in spending, both before and during COVID-19. +52.6% over normal.
        Current transfers from government to individuals up 85.6%, , which accounts for 70.5% of the increase in spending.

        Subsidies, on the other hand: $60.5 bn _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $70.7 bn _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $1,086.8 bn
        That's the rest: 27.5% of the total increase in spending.

        GDP version of Fed Balance: $631.8 bn _ _ _ _ $840.3 bn _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $3,521.0 bn

        Source: bea.gov

        = = = = =

        tantalus,

        There was a recognition in congress that this is a crisis, and action is needed. That got us this far, but going forward the presidential election's effect on politicians is posing a real danger that the lower middle class loses their homes, and poorer people starve.

        Economic collapse cannot be modeled until is well along the way, and even then, every case is different. We are very fortunate not to have lots of examples to examine for clues.
        Trust me?
        I'm an economist!

        Comment


        • What's really great about this country is that Bezos, Zukerberg, and Musk have seen their net worth increase 179 billion dollars since the beginning of the year. That trickle down effect seems more like a tsunami running uphill.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by tantalus View Post
            is congress gridlock an incalculable danger here?
            Absolutely, so many bills have sat on SEN McConnell's desk that it has settled 2 feet into the floor.

            As Astralis has said, if the Democrats win the Senate, and that is not a longshot at all, the filibuster is dead.
            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
            Mark Twain

            Comment


            • Originally posted by DOR View Post
              The Budget

              Average per quarter, US$ billion

              _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Apr 2016 – Mar 2018 _ _ Apr 2018 – Mar 2020 _ _ Apr-Jun 2020
              Federal Current Revenue: $5,442.4 bn _ _ _ _ $5,782.5 bn _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $5,560.8 bn
              Hmm. No big drop in revenue, even though April 15 was kicked down the road.
              Personal tax receipts were down 3.8% from normal, corporate -18.3% … The Trumpet's tax give-away.

              Fed Current Expenditures: $6,402.3 bn _ _ _ _ $7,015.0 bn _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $10,703.4 bn
              Big jumps in spending, both before and during COVID-19. +52.6% over normal.
              Current transfers from government to individuals up 85.6%, , which accounts for 70.5% of the increase in spending.

              Subsidies, on the other hand: $60.5 bn _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $70.7 bn _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $1,086.8 bn
              That's the rest: 27.5% of the total increase in spending.

              GDP version of Fed Balance: $631.8 bn _ _ _ _ $840.3 bn _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $3,521.0 bn

              Source: bea.gov

              = = = = =

              tantalus,

              There was a recognition in congress that this is a crisis, and action is needed. That got us this far, but going forward the presidential election's effect on politicians is posing a real danger that the lower middle class loses their homes, and poorer people starve.

              Economic collapse cannot be modeled until is well along the way, and even then, every case is different. We are very fortunate not to have lots of examples to examine for clues.
              Don't get me wrong, Blaming for trump for everything is a good starting place but it can't cover everything. And trump is definitely the chicken, someone has to take responsibilty for hatching him.

              I agree with you that extreme levels of harm are occuring. It's madness and it's remarkable from the outside how little attention it seems to be getting. But congress and both sides got no support through, even trump wanted more money for the bottom, admittedly only for his own self gain, its unconscionable to do that to the american public and a crazy economic risk.

              Trump is truly hapless, more stimulus cheques or unemployment benefits would have been welcomed by the both sides of the electorate, the democrats, some republicans and increasse his chances of relection and derisked the economy for now and he still couldnt get even 5% done.
              Last edited by tantalus; 28 Aug 20,, 20:48.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                Absolutely, so many bills have sat on SEN McConnell's desk that it has settled 2 feet into the floor.

                As Astralis has said, if the Democrats win the Senate, and that is not a longshot at all, the filibuster is dead.
                What was the reason for it originally?

                And why have a democratically elected government if it can't make policy?

                Comment


                • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                  What's really great about this country is that Bezos, Zukerberg, and Musk have seen their net worth increase 179 billion dollars since the beginning of the year. That trickle down effect seems more like a tsunami running uphill.
                  The bottom up money has held consumer spending steady and poverty levels virtually stable which is remarkable given what has happeened. America already does operate from a low standard there however. That all looks set to end but it just shows the mechainsm did bear some fruit.

                  The top down money has kept larger companies from going under but risks a zombie market. It did deliver results but there were many failings.

                  Both have helped to juice the stock market and disconnect it from the real economy.

                  Comment


                  • tantalus,

                    What was the reason for it originally?
                    it wasn't purposefully designed: it was an unintended side effect of a 19th-century Senate rule change.

                    its rise to prominence was during the Civil Rights era, when Southern Democrats used it over and over again to try to stop legislation from passing.

                    the only purpose now is forcing the Senate to require a supermajority to pass bills.
                    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      tantalus,



                      it wasn't purposefully designed: it was an unintended side effect of a 19th-century Senate rule change.

                      its rise to prominence was during the Civil Rights era, when Southern Democrats used it over and over again to try to stop legislation from passing.

                      the only purpose now is forcing the Senate to require a supermajority to pass bills.
                      And its current day advocates favour it for which reasons? Out of fear...just the liberatarians...

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by tantalus View Post
                        And its current day advocates favour it for which reasons? Out of fear...just the liberatarians...
                        In our fractured politics it is almost impossible to get 60 votes on an item get get cloture...the vote needed to end a filibuster.

                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK9rGQcwI7Y
                        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                        Mark Twain

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                          In our fractured politics it is almost impossible to get 60 votes on an item get get cloture...the vote needed to end a filibuster.

                          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK9rGQcwI7Y
                          Dear god, good video.

                          It seems to me that a democratically elected government should be able to pass legislation.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by tantalus View Post
                            Dear god, good video.

                            It seems to me that a democratically elected government should be able to pass legislation.
                            Are you familiar with the book Poland by James Michener? He explains well how previous Polish governments were undone by a Senate that required 100% for anything.

                            In today's world the US is coming close.
                            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                            Mark Twain

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                              Are you familiar with the book Poland by James Michener? He explains well how previous Polish governments were undone by a Senate that required 100% for anything.

                              In today's world the US is coming close.
                              I am not.

                              Clearly a legacy issue that needs to be cleared.

                              Comment


                              • The US Federal Budget, September 2020 version

                                What can we say about the Congressional Budget Office's September 2020 reassessment? First, that deficits will be larger than anticipated, forever (i.e., until at least 2030). Second, that revenues will be smaller this year and next, but spending will be larger as far as the eye can see. Third, the federal debt in 2030 will be $2.16 trillion more than anticipated. And finally, that the cost of servicing – paying for – this will be just 7.7% more than anticipated in March.


                                Or, as the CBO puts it …
                                “CBO projects a federal budget deficit of $3.3 trillion in 2020, more than triple the shortfall recorded in 2019. That increase is mostly the result of the economic disruption caused by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and the enactment of legislation in response. At 16.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit in 2020 would be the largest since 1945.

                                The deficit in 2021 is projected to be 8.6 percent of GDP. Between 1946 and 2019, the deficit as a share of GDP has been larger than that only twice. In CBO’s projections, annual deficits relative to the size of the economy generally continue to decline through 2027 before increasing again in the last few years of the projection period, reaching 5.3 percent of GDP in 2030. They exceed their 50-year average of 3.0 percent in each year through 2030.

                                As a result of those deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to rise sharply, to 98 percent of GDP in 2020, compared with 79 percent at the end of 2019 and 35 percent in 2007, before the start of the previous recession. It would exceed 100 percent in 2021 and increase to 107 percent in 2023, the highest in the nation’s history. The previous peak occurred in 1946 following the large deficits incurred during World War II. By 2030, debt would equal 109 percent of GDP.”

                                Source: https://www.cbo.gov/
                                Trust me?
                                I'm an economist!

                                Comment

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