I don't think this election is going to be super-hard to predict. Biden has a decisive lead and he basically has to totally bungle something huge for Trump to even be competitive. This isn't 2016. Even in 2016, Trump had an obvious chance. The only time Trump actually exceeded expectations and defied all hot takes was when he took the GOP nomination, but that was a 20-person slug-fest in which Trump managed to suck up most oxygen.
The biggest question is how big the win will be by Biden and various down-ballot effects, particularly on Senate races.
Also, America 2020 is not America 1990. The nation as a whole was substantially more conservative, particularly on crime/race issues, and the nation was substantially more bipartisan. We started breaking consensus in the Clinton years, really ramped it up starting around the 2010 mid-terms, and have essentially been in over-drive since Trump's election. The biggest stumbling block for the more extreme Dems is that they are basically ideologically driven morons and will probably run countries and cities directly into the ground: voter backlash might bite pretty hard. However, they control the press, they control social media, and it doesn't matter if you run a country directly into the ground, you can still control everything for decades as long as you control all the levers of power.
The hard political right is ultimately limited by their complete inability to expand the base and their growing loss of power in most cultural and economic spheres.
The biggest question is how big the win will be by Biden and various down-ballot effects, particularly on Senate races.
Also, America 2020 is not America 1990. The nation as a whole was substantially more conservative, particularly on crime/race issues, and the nation was substantially more bipartisan. We started breaking consensus in the Clinton years, really ramped it up starting around the 2010 mid-terms, and have essentially been in over-drive since Trump's election. The biggest stumbling block for the more extreme Dems is that they are basically ideologically driven morons and will probably run countries and cities directly into the ground: voter backlash might bite pretty hard. However, they control the press, they control social media, and it doesn't matter if you run a country directly into the ground, you can still control everything for decades as long as you control all the levers of power.
The hard political right is ultimately limited by their complete inability to expand the base and their growing loss of power in most cultural and economic spheres.
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