2020 American Political Scene

[astralis]

lol, Kosovo levels.

right now the level of unrest isn't even half as severe as the 1992 Rodney King riots, let alone the riots following the death of MLK.

[tbm3fan]

[B][SIZE=3]

But other Republican leaders, those who have less to fear from Trump, have begun to denounce him. The last Republican president, George W Bush, sided with the protesters with a clear reference to Trump. He wrote: “The only way to see ourselves in a true light is to listen to the voices of so many who are hurting and grieving. Those who set out to silence those voices do not understand the meaning of America – or how it becomes a better place.”

I don't know about that as you would think those Senators, whose re-election is precarious in blue leaning states would come out against Trump and try to save their asses. These would be people like Collins or Gardner but they are silent. So I guess they can kiss their asses goodbye and good riddens for selling out their principles. It seems many can't resist the 40 pieces of silver consequently Christ didn't stand a chance.

[tbm3fan]

Been a while since i saw that poll.

What we are left to figure out is why that index swings as it does.

Covid handling was ok until we get into the second week of April then the index goes negative two figures.

Kinda recovers in the first two weeks and a bit in May and then the gap between approve & disapprove widens again and its remained like that.

He's at negative 17 today btw

Not seeing any spike in approve over the George Floyd thing. Some people like Rushdie were saying he would exploit it.

You article says it would get worse and Rushide thought it would improve.

The floyd thing has not made a difference either way.


We wil find out just how much in Nov ; )

Watch Trump over the next months with bad news. He doesn't handle bad news well especially a drum beat of constant bad news. Just as he is incapable of actually running a Top 500 company he is also incapable of dealing with bad news that assaults his ego. He will do what he has always done, even more so, that is strike out and flail which is not a good look. I'm counting on it.

[TopHatter]

Kinda recovers in the first two weeks and a bit in May and then the gap between approve & disapprove widens again and its remained like that.

That's been the case for his entire presidency: A gently undulating wave with barely any meaningful peaks or troughs.

He's at negative 17 today btw

I saw that, yeah. He seems to lose support as the week starts, and then recovers it later in the week, an endless cycle.

It'll be interesting to see what tomorrow looks like, though. This current cycle is pretty short compared to the semi-recent past.

If he sinks into the negative 20s and stays there awhile, that'll be fairly amusing....but ultimately meaningless with the election so far off, because he'll eventually recover.

Incidentally, his worst sustained numbers, in August 2017 as noted, were due to a double-whammy of his reactions to Charlottesville and Hurricane Harvey.

[tbm3fan]

I was just reading an article by Alan Alda and his involvement with science. When he was asked what the best medicine he could think of especially during shelter in place he said laughter.

That made me thinking. I have been aware of Trump since the mid-70s. Seen him countless times over those decades on TV. You know what? I have never seen that man laugh once at all. All he does do is seethe. Never trust a man who can't laugh.

[Gun Grape]

Meh, I won't josh you around. Because we let them and we're willing to pay it.


tbm has a good long-form answer. PBMs theoretically serve as middle-men between pharmacies and insurance companies. Handling pharmacy claims and handling medical claims are basically entirely different industries so it makes sense to have PBMs. In practice, major PBMs are basically combined with major insurance companies, and they are all looking to form strategic relationships with pharmacies as well....major vertical integration.

So, PBMs negotiate drug discounts. So, we have no idea how expensive insulin really is in the United States. The PBMs negotiate those discounts and probably keep a big cut (no one knows how large).

People like to blame insurance companies, but not all insurance companies are owned by major PBMs and a lot of them really dislike this. You might remember Amazon and Berkshire and some other company trying to make their own PBM. However, this is extremely difficult since this is a business of relationship and sales, and the Big Boys have market power, and the Little Boys do not.

Also, modern insulins are a LOT better than older insulins. We (the royal we) are trialing out once a week insulin shots. If you still want old, cheap insulin, you can buy at Walmart for $25/bottle. It won't work for everyone, and you have to basically monitor your carbs like a porn addict cruising the Hub or you run the risk of severe medical incident.

Wife got her insulin delivered today. 6 boxes of Lantus Solostar pens. Each box contains 5 pens. We had a co-pay of $10 for all 35 pens.

Right after Hurricane Michael, when computers were down, no telephones we went to the local pharmacy and tried to get her a refill. They couldn't process our insurance but you can buy insulin without a prescription. The cost, without insurance, was $100 a pen.
Think about that. I pay $10 for 35 pens. Someone without insurance would pay $3500. I know I have good insurance but damn someone is making a killing off the uninsured. My insurance company didn't eat $3490 so the wife could get cheap drugs

[Double Edge]

That's been the case for his entire presidency: A gently undulating wave with barely any meaningful peaks or troughs.

Going by the approval index, he has spent 98% of his term in negative digit territory. His only positive patch is the first month of his term and then the disapproves overtake approves. When he gets to zero it lasts only for a day or little more before slipping back.

The riots have not made a noticeable difference to his ratings over two weeks later. I cannot seperate the effect of riots from covid.

The effects of covid have pushed him into double negative territory. A slight recovery but slipped back again into double negative.

Compare that with similar patches in his term without covid and ask if even covid is that big of a problem for him ?

We will know more in three months when the economic side effects become more pronounced. But that is what the stumulus was for and if it works as thought he makes the slow climb back into single digit territory.

I saw that, yeah. He seems to lose support as the week starts, and then recovers it later in the week, an endless cycle.

It'll be interesting to see what tomorrow looks like, though. This current cycle is pretty short compared to the semi-recent past.

If he sinks into the negative 20s and stays there awhile, that'll be fairly amusing....but ultimately meaningless with the election so far off, because he'll eventually recover.

Incidentally, his worst sustained numbers, in August 2017 as noted, were due to a double-whammy of his reactions to Charlottesville and Hurricane Harvey.

If that index is negative double digits around polling time a second term is unlikely otherwise he's in.

Low single negative numbers, in, double negative, out.

We'd get a better handle of this if it was possible to correlate why that index rises or falls.

There's a trigger that starts the difference, if things don't improve it slowly grows.

At some point he does something to reverse the trend.

This reminds me of celsius & Fahreheit. The latter is preferred in the US to the former elsewhere.

The latter is more sensitive and shows changes faster.

In a polling context it would be too sensitive and not suffciently dampened.

[Double Edge]

I was just reading an article by Alan Alda and his involvement with science. When he was asked what the best medicine he could think of especially during shelter in place he said laughter.

That made me thinking. I have been aware of Trump since the mid-70s. Seen him countless times over those decades on TV. You know what? I have never seen that man laugh once at all. All he does do is seethe. Never trust a man who can't laugh.

What about his rallies ? he's got to be smiling a lot for those.

[Double Edge]

The next US election I fear will not be or end peacefully as the man child's narcissism cannot withstand the realisation that he's a fake and a failure.

I hear this prediction frequently.

If it does end up being contested, they won't be firing any shots, it will end up in court and we get a nastier version of Bush 2000

[Oracle]

Covid-19, unemployment, riots. I am afraid I might have been wrong when I said President Trump will win another term. The left might come out in droves to vote this November. Biden is actually not a bad choice. 4 years of Trump was like bad fiction, minus some of his policies.

[Double Edge]

Covid-19, unemployment, riots. I am afraid I might have been wrong when I said President Trump will win another term. The left might come out in droves to vote this November. Biden is actually not a bad choice. 4 years of Trump was like bad fiction, minus some of his policies.

This would be a reasonable assumption. Young people coming out to vote because they did not in sufficient numbers last time but reading around i got the impression that they can't be counted on to do it. Voter turnouts since the last election should have increased but does not seem that way.

[TopHatter]

The left might come out in droves to vote this November.

It won't just be "the left", I can assure you of that.

[Gun Grape]

How unhinged can you be? And how can Republican Senators still ignore it?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...lo-cops-308716

Trump’s conspiracy theory on 75-year-old protester draws sharp backlash
The president’s tweet comes after a video of the encounter between Martin Gugino and two Buffalo police officers went viral online.

President Donald Trump has a long history of toying with conspiracy theories, many of which get little traction or even reaction. But his Twitter message on Tuesday suggesting that the 75-year-old man whose head was cracked open by Buffalo law enforcement last week was a tech-savvy “ANTIFA provocateur” prompted an immediate outcry, as well as support for the still-hospitalized victim.

“Buffalo protester shoved by Police could be an ANTIFA provocateur. 75 year old Martin Gugino was pushed away after appearing to scan police communications in order to black out the equipment. @OANN,” Trump tweeted, citing the conservative cable channel One America News Network but offering no evidence to support such an assertion.

Trump added: “I watched, he fell harder than was pushed. Was aiming scanner. Could be a set up?”

Gugino’s attorney, Kelly Zarcone, pushed back against the president.

“Martin has always been a PEACEFUL protestor because he cares about today’s society,” Zarcone said in a statement reported Tuesday by various media outlets. “He is also a typical Western New Yorker who loves his family.”

“No one from law enforcement has even suggested anything otherwise so we are at a loss to understand why the President of the United States would make such dark, dangerous, and untrue accusations against him,” Zarcone said, adding that although “Martin is out of ICU,” he is “still hospitalized and truly needs to rest.”

The president’s conspiratorial social media post comes after a video of the encounter last Thursday between Gugino and officers in Buffalo, N.Y. — shot by local NPR affiliate WBFO — went viral online amid nationwide protests in the wake of the killing of George Floyd, a 46-year-old black man, by Minneapolis police.

The footage shows Gugino approach two officers outfitted in tactical gear who were part of a larger group of police officers enforcing the city’s 8 p.m. curfew in Buffalo’s Niagara Square, in front of City Hall. After a brief interaction, the officers forcefully push Gugino, and he falls backward onto the pavement. Officers can then be seen walking past Gugino’s body as he bleeds from his head.

Buffalo police initially said in a statement last Thursday night that a person “was injured when he tripped & fell” during a “skirmish involving protestors,” but they later apologized and said they were “working with incomplete details during what was a very fast-moving and fluid situation.”

Mayor Byron Brown announced on Friday that Buffalo’s police commissioner had suspended the two officers involved in the episode without pay, prompting dozens of other officers to step down from the department’s crowd-control unit in protest.

On Saturday, Erie County, New York, District Attorney John Flynn charged the two officers, Robert McCabe and Aaron Torgalski, with second-degree assault. McCabe and Torgalski pleaded not guilty and were released without bail.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York said Tuesday there was “no proof whatsoever” to back up Trump’s accusation that Gugino was associated with the leftist ideology antifa, fiercely criticizing the president during his daily news briefing in Albany.

“How reckless. How irresponsible. How mean. How crude,” Cuomo told reporters. “I mean, if there was ever a reprehensible, dumb comment — and from the president of the United States. At this moment of anguish and anger, what does he do? Pours gasoline on the fire. If he ever feels a moment of decency, he should apologize for that tweet. Because it is wholly unacceptable.”

The state’s lieutenant governor, Kathy Hochul, a native Buffalo resident, also condemned Trump’s tweet as “sick,” writing online: “The President continues to use his platform to peddle conspiracy theories, this time about a peaceful protestor and fellow New Yorker. Not sure how this is supposed to bring our country together...”

Former Vice President Joe Biden, Trump’s likely Democratic rival in the November election, similarly denounced the president’s accusation.

“My Dad used to say there’s no greater sin than the abuse of power,” Biden said in a tweet. “Whether it’s an officer bloodying a peaceful protester or a President defending him with a conspiracy theory he saw on TV. I’m a Catholic — just like Martin. Our faith says that we can’t accept either.”

The criticism wasn’t limited to Democrats.

“Oh, lord. Ugh,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) when shown a printout of the president’s tweet on Tuesday. “Why would you fan the flames? That’s all I’m going to say.”

Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said: “It’s a serious accusation, which should only be made with facts and evidence. And I haven’t seen any.”

Trump’s tweet echoed a recent OANN segment about a report from a website called the Conservative Treehouse, which alleges Gugino “was attempting to capture the radio communications signature of Buffalo police officers.” The report states that the “capture of communications signals … is a method of police tracking used by Antifa to monitor the location of police.”

Neither OANN nor the Conservative Treehouse offered any evidence to support their claims about Gugino, who is a longtime peace activist from Amherst, according to The Buffalo News.

The president and Attorney General William Barr have charged that extremist organizations are largely responsible for acts of looting and violence that have broken out at some protests across the country. Republicans have specifically blamed what they refer to as antifa, a collection of far-left militant groups that often resist neo-Nazis, white supremacists and far right-wing groups at demonstrations and other events.

Trump declared last month the U.S. government would be “designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization” — even though he does not appear to have the legal authority to do so, and it is not clear that the loosely defined group of radical activists is an organization at all.

At a news briefing last Thursday, Barr claimed Justice Department officials “have evidence that antifa and other similar extremist groups, as well as actors of a variety of different political persuasions, have been involved in instigating and participating in the violent activity” at protests.

Max Cohen, Marianne LeVine, Burgess Everett and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

[TopHatter]

We'd get a better handle of this if it was possible to correlate why that index rises or falls.

There's a trigger that starts the difference, if things don't improve it slowly grows.

At some point he does something to reverse the trend.

This reminds me of celsius & Fahreheit. The latter is preferred in the US to the former elsewhere.

The latter is more sensitive and shows changes faster.

In a polling context it would be too sensitive and not suffciently dampened.

I found a good quote from fivethirtyeight.org that explains that gentle up-and-down of his numbers:

There’s about 5 percent of the electorate that seems to go back and forth on Trump, mostly based on how Trump behaves, and how bad the coverage of him is.
Based on regression to the mean, I’d guess Trump’s approval rating will go back up, unless there is some kind of cascade of elite Republicans turning on him.

[TopHatter]

How unhinged can you be? And how can Republican Senators still ignore it?

Trump's insanity will only get worse. Much worse. I've said this before and I'll say until I'm blue in the face: Time is not on that man's side.

As for Republican Senators...well, they have to ignore it. If they take one side or the other, they're screwed. And they know it.

The problem when you're dancing with a rabid animal like Trump is that sooner or later the music stops. All they can do is pray that they get elected for another term before then.