The US 2020 Presidential Election & Attempts To Overturn It

[Mihais]

It’s hard to predict the future, but I don’t think we are entering a period of Republican dominance comparable to after the civil war or even during the time of Ronald Reagan. I think the next decade will continue to see a balance between the two parties and extremely close elections.

While Democrats might struggle to hold on to white suburban voters and some minority voters this will likely be balanced somewhat by changing demographics. And I also think many democratic voters may not so easily forget the Trump years and rush back to the arms of the GOP

Republicans have problems of their own. The chamber of commerce wing of the party might see this as an opportunity to take the party back from the Trumpists. They would probably control political contributions, Republicans were badly outmatched this cycle when it came to raising campaign contributions.

You assume this is 1992.It's not.The 2 sides hate each other.Just because some folks living in their ivory tower don't see it that way doesn't make it less true.The chamber of commerce Republicans,as you named them,are peanuts compared to Trump's base.Trump himself was always less important and his flaws were always known to everyone on the right.It's just that half of the nation views him as a lesser evil with a couple of qualities mixed in,compared to outright evil.Dems on their turn have nothing to tell on the other half of the nation,except ''racists and nazis''.Which is a dumber way of saying ''evil''.
What you will likely see is even greater radicalization and starting of calls for seccession,as far fetched as it may look right now.2020 is a preview,not the endgame.

[Firestorm]

Obviously a lot of split ticket voting went on. Now we know that no Trump supporter would ever split ticket vote. The same is true of dyed in the wool Democratic voters which leaves independents who would split their ticket down ballot in their local elections. I'm not sure yet how much the socialist tag on some House members hurt them but I'm sure it did. Same goes for any one who seemed to even give defund the police a passing nod. As I was telling GVC California is an interesting study. The state elects all Democrats and some quite progressive but a lot in the state gets dealt with via propositions good or bad. The key is to watch which get passed and which don't. If you pay close attention you would see the ones that pass are right down the middle while the edge propositions get nixed every time. So if the Democrat was perceived towards the far left edge the electorate (independents) pulled things back more to the center right.

True, I am also talking about independents and voters whom the Dems had lost to Trump in 2016. At least some of them seem to have come back along with some of the new voters. But have they come back to Dems, or just to Biden because they despise Trump?

No Cruz and Rubio do not come even close to what Trump has. Trump has "Celebrity!" which no other candidate has had before. Trump is the Kardashian of the political world hands down and as we know lots of people are awed by celebrities. That type of awe is endemic around the world in many countries. However, for Trump, he would need to come through in order to keep some of those who were only awed a little bit and then got bored.

If it was Trump's celebrity that was carrying things for the Republicans, they would not be gaining seats in the House and holding in the Senate while Trump is on course to lose the presidential race. Looks to me like the other way around. Trump is perhaps dragging them down now. Not with their base but with the fence sitters who seem to be ok voting for them in Congressional races but don't seem to want to do so for Trump after seeing the train wreck of the last 4 years.

[InExile]

Nothing stops them from changing their rhetoric having learned lessons from Trump. The thing is, their huge support in minority communities and urban liberals is what is sustaining Democrats right now. If the Republicans can chip away at their minority support, they will be in serious trouble. Trump managed to do that in some areas despite being a racist clown.

It’s hard to predict the future, but I don’t think we are entering a period of Republican dominance comparable to after the civil war or even during the time of Ronald Reagan. I think the next decade will continue to see a balance between the two parties and extremely close elections.

While Democrats might struggle to hold on to white suburban voters and some minority voters this will likely be balanced somewhat by changing demographics. And I also think many democratic voters may not so easily forget the Trump years and rush back to the arms of the GOP

Republicans have problems of their own. The chamber of commerce wing of the party might see this as an opportunity to take the party back from the Trumpists. They would probably control political contributions, Republicans were badly outmatched this cycle when it came to raising campaign contributions.

[DOR]

More from the political experts at The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/)

2020 Close Contests Summary: Decision by 2% or less … thus far

It looks very much like the Libertarian Candidate Jo Jorgensen has swung the election for Joe Biden.


Nevada (6 EVs): VP Biden 49.45% vs. DJ Trump 48.48%. The 11,822 gap is almost covered by Lib Jorg (11,641) and “None of these candidates” (11,060), with Independent American Blankenship getting 2,595.
Wisconsin (10 EVs): VP Biden 49.58% vs. DJ Trump 48.94%. that's only 20,938 votes apart, and Lib Jorg polled 38,370, followed by two others with a combined 10,441.
Pennsylvania (20 EVs): VP Biden 49.48% vs. DJ Trump 49.38%, a gap of 6,742 that is largely due to Lib Jorg's 76,340 grab.
Georgia (16 EVs): VP Biden 49.40% vs. DJ Trump 49.37%, a gap of 1,587 votes with Lib Jorg at 61,390.
North Carolina (15 EVs): DJ Trump 49.98% vs. VP Biden 48.57%. The 76,701 difference is larger than Libertarian Jorgensen (47,215), Green (11,825), Constitution (7,381) and “scattering” (12,940), but not if they all went the same direction (79,361)


In the Senate, no elections seem to have been swung by third party candidates:
Georgia Senate: Perdue (incumbent, GOP) 49.84% vs. Ossof (Dem) 47.85%
97,952 vote difference, with Libertarian Shane Hazel polling 113,788 votes
North Carolina Senate: Tillis (Incumbent, GOP) 48.73 vs. Cunninghamm (Dem) 46.94%.
96,707 vote differnece, with Libertarian Bray (167,968) out-gunning Constitution Party Hayes (66,668).
Michigan Senate: Peters (Incumbent, Dem) 49.86% vs. James (GOP) 48.26%.
The 87,447 vote difference doesn't include U.S. Taxpayers candidate Willis (50,323), Green Party candidate Squier (39,048), or Natural Law man Dern (13,035).



House-side, ...
Nevada House 03 was swung Democratic: Kelley (Incumbent, Dem) 48.36% vs Rodimer (GOP), 46.56%, and the 6,380 vote difference came from Libertarian Brown (9,439) and Independent American Bridges (8,559) providing equal opportunity disruption.

Iowa House 03 is another win for the Democrats, courtesy of the Libertarian Party: Axne (Incumbent, Dem) 49% vs. Young (GOP) 47.57%, a 6,397 vote difference out-shined by Libertarian Holder (15,344)

New York House 03 … Maybe, can't be sure: Devolder-Santos (GOP) 47.21% vs. Suozzi (Incumbent, Dem) 45.76%3
That's a 4,230 vote difference and the next largest category is “scattering” (blank, void, write-in) at 19,045, which is a bit embarrassing for Libertarian Rabin (1,500).

Texas House 24, an open seat: Van Duyne (GOP) 48.82% vs. Valenzuela (Dem) 47.45%.
The 4,643 vote gap is courtesy of Libertarian Hamilton (5,583), Independent Kuzmich (4,179) and Independent Bauer (2,871).

Utah House 04: Ownes (GOP) 48.03% vs. McAdams (Incumbent, Dem) 47.12%, with the 2,520 vote difference overshadowed by Libertarian (8,339) and United Utah (5,080) candidates.

Iowa House 02, an open seat: Miller-Meeks (GOP) 50.05%, vs. Hart (Dem) 49.95%, and no spoilers between the 354 vote difference.

California House 48: Steel (GOP) 50.67% vs. Rouda (Incumbent, Dem) 49.33%. The 4,774 vote difference is pure: no third candidates recorded (yet).

California House 39: Kim (GOP) 50.43% vs. Cisneros (Incumbent, Dem) 49.57%, a 2,497 vote gap with no spoilers in sight.California House 25: Garcia (Incumbent, GOP) 50.05% vs. Smith (Dem) 49.95%, and just 265 tiny votes between them with no spoilers around to take the, *ahem* credit.

Illinois House 14: Oberweis (GOP) 50.14% vs. Underwood (Incumbent, Dem) 49.86), just 1,078 lazy nonvoters apart and no third party to mess it up.

South Carolina House 01: Mace (GOP) 50.59% vs. Cunningham (Incumbent, Dem) 49.41%. Another pure one, with a 4,993 vote difference.

Virginia House 07: Spanberger (Incumbent, Dem) 50.57% vs. Freitas (GOP) 49.43%. A gap of 5,063 votes and no spoilers on the horizon.

Pennsylvania House 17: Lamb (Incumbent, Dem) 50.52% vs. Parnell (GOP) 49.48%, a 4,287 gap and no other candidates recorded.

Updates should be here: https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G20/CloseContests.phtml

[tbm3fan]

Doesn't matter. Come 20 JAN 21 his term ends.

Hell, just go on Fox News and give an interview about how you feel about the loss. I'm sure Trump will be watching. Besides we all could enjoy some more off the wall tweets after he sees that interview.

[tbm3fan]

So Biden seems to be leading in states where the Democrats actually lost some House seats. Overall, they have underperformed in the House and their situation in the Senate isn't any better than before the election. IMO this is evidence that a statistically significant number of people might have voted for Biden but also voted Republican for down-ballot races (or not voted at all).

Obviously a lot of split ticket voting went on. Now we know that no Trump supporter would ever split ticket vote. The same is true of dyed in the wool Democratic voters which leaves independents who would split their ticket down ballot in their local elections. I'm not sure yet how much the socialist tag on some House members hurt them but I'm sure it did. Same goes for any one who seemed to even give defund the police a passing nod. As I was telling GVC California is an interesting study. The state elects all Democrats and some quite progressive but a lot in the state gets dealt with via propositions good or bad. The key is to watch which get passed and which don't. If you pay close attention you would see the ones that pass are right down the middle while the edge propositions get nixed every time. So if the Democrat was perceived towards the far left edge the electorate (independents) pulled things back more to the center right.

This could be because of their personal dislike/disgust for Trump as a person and a Presidential candidate. If that is True, another candidate like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio might have blown Biden away perhaps? Democrats have a big problem on their hands for the future either way.

No Cruz and Rubio do not come even close to what Trump has. Trump has "Celebrity!" which no other candidate has had before. Trump is the Kardashian of the political world hands down and as we know lots of people are awed by celebrities. That type of awe is endemic around the world in many countries. However, for Trump, he would need to come through in order to keep some of those who were only awed a little bit and then got bored.

The 2016 race reminds me of another race. The 2016 was between a celebrity and a boring technocrat. In 1960 we had a dashing JFK (the Sean Connery of politics) versus the boring Richard Nixon. That race was close but dashing won as did celebrity. The only thing we can never know is how JFK vs Goldwater would have turned out four years later as here.

I have always gotten a kick out of how one could easily get elected to office in the Philippines by having been a popular actor. It would be slam dunk. Sadly, the same can be said of America and American voters.

[Albany Rifles]

Trump allies reportedly discussing who will have to break the news of his potential loss
As former Vice President Joe Biden appears on the cusp of potentially winning the presidency, President Trump's allies are reportedly discussing how to tell him that he may have lost his re-election bid.

No winner in the presidential race has been projected yet, but as Biden pulls ahead in Pennsylvania, CNN reports that those around Trump are discussing who might have a tough discussion with the president, who has baselessly claimed he is being cheated out of a victory.

"People around Trump are working to identify who might be able to communicate to him the stark reality," CNN reports. "There has been talk of potentially Jared Kushner or Ivanka Trump, though their willingness to lead a difficult intervention wasn't clear."

One way of doing so that has been discussed, CNN writes, is "framing potential conversations with Trump around the idea of preserving his brand for life after being president," and The New York Times also reports that Republicans are discussing how to bring up with Trump "what leaving quietly could mean for his family, his business and his own ability to remain in politics."

But according to CNN, Trump has "given virtually no thought" to the idea that he might not win a second term, and that idea was "not discussed widely among his team." He also reportedly does not have a concession speech prepared.

Trump has reportedly told people he does not intend to concede the race, and Axios' Jonathan Swan writes that "nobody I have spoken to on the campaign or in the White House believes that Trump would ever publicly acknowledge a loss, even long after the election is certified." The Times similarly reports that while some believe Trump could ultimately concede if a loss becomes clear, "he will most likely never publicly accept the result" of the election.
__________

Doesn't matter. Come 20 JAN 21 his term ends.

[Firestorm]

I think some voters are drawn to Trump due to his economic nationalism and anti-establishment rhetoric. A conventional Republican perceived as being friendly to big business might not motivate them sufficiently to turn out even if they lean conservative.

Nothing stops them from changing their rhetoric having learned lessons from Trump. The thing is, their huge support in minority communities and urban liberals is what is sustaining Democrats right now. If the Republicans can chip away at their minority support, they will be in serious trouble. Trump managed to do that in some areas despite being a racist clown.

[TopHatter]

Trump allies reportedly discussing who will have to break the news of his potential loss
As former Vice President Joe Biden appears on the cusp of potentially winning the presidency, President Trump's allies are reportedly discussing how to tell him that he may have lost his re-election bid.

No winner in the presidential race has been projected yet, but as Biden pulls ahead in Pennsylvania, CNN reports that those around Trump are discussing who might have a tough discussion with the president, who has baselessly claimed he is being cheated out of a victory.

"People around Trump are working to identify who might be able to communicate to him the stark reality," CNN reports. "There has been talk of potentially Jared Kushner or Ivanka Trump, though their willingness to lead a difficult intervention wasn't clear."

One way of doing so that has been discussed, CNN writes, is "framing potential conversations with Trump around the idea of preserving his brand for life after being president," and The New York Times also reports that Republicans are discussing how to bring up with Trump "what leaving quietly could mean for his family, his business and his own ability to remain in politics."

But according to CNN, Trump has "given virtually no thought" to the idea that he might not win a second term, and that idea was "not discussed widely among his team." He also reportedly does not have a concession speech prepared.

Trump has reportedly told people he does not intend to concede the race, and Axios' Jonathan Swan writes that "nobody I have spoken to on the campaign or in the White House believes that Trump would ever publicly acknowledge a loss, even long after the election is certified." The Times similarly reports that while some believe Trump could ultimately concede if a loss becomes clear, "he will most likely never publicly accept the result" of the election.
__________

[InExile]

Why would Cruz or Rubio be less able to turn out minority voters?

I think some voters are drawn to Trump due to his economic nationalism and anti-establishment rhetoric. A conventional Republican perceived as being friendly to big business might not motivate them sufficiently to turn out even if they lean conservative.