2020 Close Contests Summary: Decision by 2% or less … thus far
It looks very much like the Libertarian Candidate Jo Jorgensen has swung the election for Joe Biden.
Nevada (6 EVs): VP Biden 49.45% vs. DJ Trump 48.48%. The 11,822 gap is almost covered by Lib Jorg (11,641) and “None of these candidates” (11,060), with Independent American Blankenship getting 2,595.
Wisconsin (10 EVs): VP Biden 49.58% vs. DJ Trump 48.94%. that's only 20,938 votes apart, and Lib Jorg polled 38,370, followed by two others with a combined 10,441.
Pennsylvania (20 EVs): VP Biden 49.48% vs. DJ Trump 49.38%, a gap of 6,742 that is largely due to Lib Jorg's 76,340 grab.
Georgia (16 EVs): VP Biden 49.40% vs. DJ Trump 49.37%, a gap of 1,587 votes with Lib Jorg at 61,390.
North Carolina (15 EVs): DJ Trump 49.98% vs. VP Biden 48.57%. The 76,701 difference is larger than Libertarian Jorgensen (47,215), Green (11,825), Constitution (7,381) and “scattering” (12,940), but not if they all went the same direction (79,361)
In the Senate, no elections seem to have been swung by third party candidates:
Georgia Senate: Perdue (incumbent, GOP) 49.84% vs. Ossof (Dem) 47.85%
97,952 vote difference, with Libertarian Shane Hazel polling 113,788 votes
North Carolina Senate: Tillis (Incumbent, GOP) 48.73 vs. Cunninghamm (Dem) 46.94%.
96,707 vote differnece, with Libertarian Bray (167,968) out-gunning Constitution Party Hayes (66,668).
Michigan Senate: Peters (Incumbent, Dem) 49.86% vs. James (GOP) 48.26%.
The 87,447 vote difference doesn't include U.S. Taxpayers candidate Willis (50,323), Green Party candidate Squier (39,048), or Natural Law man Dern (13,035).
House-side, ...
Nevada House 03 was swung Democratic: Kelley (Incumbent, Dem) 48.36% vs Rodimer (GOP), 46.56%, and the 6,380 vote difference came from Libertarian Brown (9,439) and Independent American Bridges (8,559) providing equal opportunity disruption.
Iowa House 03 is another win for the Democrats, courtesy of the Libertarian Party: Axne (Incumbent, Dem) 49% vs. Young (GOP) 47.57%, a 6,397 vote difference out-shined by Libertarian Holder (15,344)
New York House 03 … Maybe, can't be sure: Devolder-Santos (GOP) 47.21% vs. Suozzi (Incumbent, Dem) 45.76%3
That's a 4,230 vote difference and the next largest category is “scattering” (blank, void, write-in) at 19,045, which is a bit embarrassing for Libertarian Rabin (1,500).
Texas House 24, an open seat: Van Duyne (GOP) 48.82% vs. Valenzuela (Dem) 47.45%.
The 4,643 vote gap is courtesy of Libertarian Hamilton (5,583), Independent Kuzmich (4,179) and Independent Bauer (2,871).
Utah House 04: Ownes (GOP) 48.03% vs. McAdams (Incumbent, Dem) 47.12%, with the 2,520 vote difference overshadowed by Libertarian (8,339) and United Utah (5,080) candidates.
Iowa House 02, an open seat: Miller-Meeks (GOP) 50.05%, vs. Hart (Dem) 49.95%, and no spoilers between the 354 vote difference.
California House 48: Steel (GOP) 50.67% vs. Rouda (Incumbent, Dem) 49.33%. The 4,774 vote difference is pure: no third candidates recorded (yet).
California House 39: Kim (GOP) 50.43% vs. Cisneros (Incumbent, Dem) 49.57%, a 2,497 vote gap with no spoilers in sight.California House 25: Garcia (Incumbent, GOP) 50.05% vs. Smith (Dem) 49.95%, and just 265 tiny votes between them with no spoilers around to take the, *ahem* credit.
Illinois House 14: Oberweis (GOP) 50.14% vs. Underwood (Incumbent, Dem) 49.86), just 1,078 lazy nonvoters apart and no third party to mess it up.
South Carolina House 01: Mace (GOP) 50.59% vs. Cunningham (Incumbent, Dem) 49.41%. Another pure one, with a 4,993 vote difference.
Virginia House 07: Spanberger (Incumbent, Dem) 50.57% vs. Freitas (GOP) 49.43%. A gap of 5,063 votes and no spoilers on the horizon.
Pennsylvania House 17: Lamb (Incumbent, Dem) 50.52% vs. Parnell (GOP) 49.48%, a 4,287 gap and no other candidates recorded.
Updates should be here: https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G20/CloseContests.phtml
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