The Voters
The total number of people old enough to vote in the United States in 2020 is 257,605,088, give or take. Of those, 1.45mn are in prison, 1.96mn are on probation, 0.62mn are on parole, and 14.32mn are non-citizens. There are also about five million voters living overseas.
If the numbers are right – and they are the best available – 239.25 million people will be eligible to vote, or about 72.5% of the population. Of those, the actual turnout may be between 55.3% (2000) and 62.2% (2008), or 132.3-148.8mn. That's a gap of 16.5mn, which is easily enough to swing any election. So, turnout is key.
In the five presidential elections since 2000, the highest average turnout is found in Minnesota (averaging 75.2%), followed by Wisconsin (71.5%), and Maine (70.1%). 19 states have turnouts in the 60s, and 26 in the 50s. Hawai'i, which almost always knows the results of the election well before the polls close, has an average turnout of just 45.5%. West Virginia, at 49.4%, has no such excuse.
The data are compiled by University of Florida's Dr Michael McDonald in the United States Election Project, http://www.electproject.org/.
For the actual results, the most comprehensive source I've found is The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/), which shows federal and gubernatorial candidates and votes. It is particularly useful for minor parties coverage, and for keeping track of newly added / dropped candidates. How else would we know that 24 people are running for president, but only 7 for VP?
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I dropped off my ballot this morning.
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