The US 2020 Presidential Election

[TopHatter]

In addition to the websites you cite and the regular big three networks have failed to inform me of the nefarious acts of the organization that you appear to fear?

Wait, what happened to "I watch regular old network evening news"?

"Failed to inform you"? Uh, yeeeeah....https://www.breitbart.com/tag/qanon/ https://www.theblaze.com/tag/qanon We all know that you usually don't read the actual content of the links you post...but now I'm suspecting that you might be functionally illiterate.

It's pretty obvious that besides a case of TDS, that you may have lost other segments of the plot. Such as honesty, morality, decency, honor, respect, conscience, character and integrity.

[TopHatter]

Jacksonville seeks $150K from GOP convention host committee

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) — Jacksonville city officials are seeking reimbursement for more than $150,000 in expenses for law enforcement costs, consulting fees and other funds spent preparing to host the National Republican Convention that never took place in their city.

The festivities, which were to be held in Jacksonville in August to formally reanoint President Donald Trump as the Republican nominee for president, was scuttled because of concerns over the coronavirus.

City officials told the Florida Times-Union that they have been assured by the 2020 Jacksonville Host Committee that it will be repaid.

Jacksonville had been selected to host Trump and other Republicans in late August after a disagreement over social distancing with North Carolina’s Democratic governor prompted the party to scale back festivities in Charlotte.

Jacksonville officials, including Mayor Lenny Curry, had openly sought to host the event. Curry had assured residents that taxpayers would not be on the hook for the convention.

Jordan Elsbury, chief of staff for the mayor, said the city and the host committee have been “working together over the past couple of weeks to resolve any balances the city had.”

He said the city has been assured “timely payment.”

An invoice dated Oct. 6 shows the city's itemized expenses, including: $69,974 in overtime costs for the Sheriff’s Office, $9,862 for the Fire and Rescue Department and $69,777 to a consulting firm that was assisting the city secure more than $30 million in federal grants to help pay for security during the multiday event.

In a report to the Federal Election Commission, the host committee did not show any payments to the city, the Times-Union reported.
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Time for Lenny Curry (Gullible Idiot Republican Mayor of Jacksonville) to learn why you don't do business with a con man like Donald Trump.

[TopHatter]

Reporter Refused to Put Name on Hunter Biden Story

“The New York Post’s front-page article about Hunter Biden on Wednesday was written mostly by a staff reporter who refused to put his name on it,” the New York Times reports.

“Bruce Golding, a reporter at the Rupert Murdoch-owned tabloid since 2007, did not allow his byline to be used because he had concerns over the article’s credibility.”

Many Post staff members questioned whether the paper had done enough to verify the authenticity of the hard drive’s contents, said five people with knowledge of the tabloid’s inner workings. Staff members also had concerns about the reliability of its sources and its timing, the people said.

The article named two sources: Stephen K. Bannon, the former adviser to President Trump now facing federal fraud charges, who was said to have made the paper aware of the hard drive last month; and Rudolph W. Giuliani, the president’s personal lawyer, who was said to have given the paper “a copy” of the hard drive on Oct. 11.
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[TopHatter]

What early voting can (and can't) tell us about the election

Democratic strategists think the early numbers show a 2020 electorate that's bigger, younger and more diverse than in 2016 — and not just shifting forward votes that would have otherwise arrived on Election Day.

The big picture: Early voting data signals strong Democratic enthusiasm in key battleground states. But strategists in both parties say Republicans could still overtake that advantage with a surge of in-person turnout on Election Day.

Details: So far, first-time and infrequent Democratic voters are outpacing registered Republicans with larger margins than in 2016, according to data from TargetSmart, a Democratic firm.

• “In North Carolina, nearly 1 in 5 ballots cast so far come from those who didn’t vote in 2016," said Greg Speed, president of America Votes.
• 24.9 million ballots have already been cast. In key states like Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Iowa, more than a quarter of the total number of ballots that were cast in 2016 have already been received.
• More than six times as many Democrats have cast ballots than at the same point in 2016 — and Republican early voting has nearly quadrupled.

Pennsylvania and Florida are key to watch.

• 59% of first-time voters who already cast ballots in Pennsylvania are registered Democrats, compared to the just 15% who are registered Republicans. Democratic first-time voters were just barely outvoting Republicans (40% to 38%) at this point in 2016.
• In Florida, registered Democrats' lead over registered Republicans among first-time voters has grown by nearly 10 percentage points compared to 2016.

What to watch: 2020 is an election like none other, and comparisons to 2016 should be taken with a grain of salt.

• "I can't help but look at this data with the lens of Trump telling Republicans so consistently that vote-by-mail is a scam," Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of Michael Bloomberg's data firm Hawkfish, told Axios. "That distrust — it bears out in this data."
• "There's less of an imperative for Republicans to vote early," said Mike Meyers, a Republican and president TargetPoint Consulting

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[tbm3fan]

Wait, what happened to "I watch regular old network evening news"?

"Failed to inform you"? Uh, yeeeeah....https://www.breitbart.com/tag/qanon/ https://www.theblaze.com/tag/qanon We all know that you usually don't read the actual content of the links you post...but now I'm suspecting that you might be functionally illiterate.

It's pretty obvious that besides a case of TDS, that you may have lost other segments of the plot. Such as honesty, morality, decency, honor, respect, conscience, character and integrity.

I would add ethics and principles. When you associate with a flea bitten dog, like Trump, you end up covered in fleas also making anything you say as worthless as Trump's lies. Once you make that willful choice there is pretty much no going back and regaining any sense of integrity. So no complaining...

[TopHatter]

Time to vote, come what may. The lines are moving along quickly here. Regardless of the outcome, this will be a distinct pleasure.

Edit: In and out in 6 minutes. Glad I didn't come first thing in the morning, apparently the line was wrapped around the building.

[Albany Rifles]

Person who said that comes from CA

Did anyone expect PA to go for Trump in the last election ?

Why then are you precluding any surprises this time around.

If you knew anything about Pennsylvania that was the least surprising outcome in that state. I was a PA resident for 18 years. Once steel and coal collapsed there was nothing for the Union workforce to hold on to. The State House when GOP. Pittsburgh went from steel and coal to high tech & medical research....Philadelphia banking. The entire middle part was kept Democratic only through Union work in steel & coal. Fracking has allowed some Union work to reappear but nothing like it was.

But what PA has seen is the hollow shell that is Trumpism...which is why Joe Biden leads in almost all polls.

[TopHatter]

If you knew anything about Pennsylvania that was the least surprising outcome in that state..

Hey cut him some slack there. He knows as much about Pennsylvania as he does California....not to mention the rest of America.

[Albany Rifles]

Hunter Biden article is....."questionable"?

It is utter bullshit.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...n-stories.html

[TopHatter]

Hunter Biden article is....."questionable"?

It is utter bullshit.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...n-stories.html

Utter bullshit? Didn't you hear?

In regards to the Hunter Biden laptop, in addition to the unscrupulous business and corruption implications, is that Special Agent Joshua Wilson is reportedly working on this case. An FBI Agent that is named Joshua Wilson is a specialist in child pornography.
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-...source-2020-10

Smoking gun if I ever saw one. I mean, even Fox News has gone after this one....oh, wait:

Fox News Reportedly Turned Down Hunter Biden Laptop Story First

Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani apparently first approached Fox News with the trove of emails he claims came from Hunter Biden’s laptop, but the network passed on the story over credibility concerns, per a report by Mediaite. According to Mediaite’s sources, “the lack of authentication of Hunter Biden’s alleged laptop, combined with established concerns about Giuliani as a reliable source and his desire for unvetted publication, led the network’s news division to pass.” The network’s so-called Brain Room, for its part, has warned Fox News hosts that Giuliani has a reputation for “amplifying disinformation.”

Giuliani eventually went to Fox News’ sister publication the New York Post to run a story on the largely unverified emails and Giuliani’s assertion that they were pulled from a laptop that Hunter Biden left at a Delaware computer repair shop. The shop owner, meanwhile, has given conflicting accounts on how the laptop supposedly came into his possession.

The New York Times reported on Sunday that the Post had a hard time convincing reporters to add their bylines to the email story, with the reporter who did the bulk of the writing outright refusing to be attached to the story. One of the bylines on the report, who was barely involved in the story, only found out her name was added after publication. While Fox News may have initially passed on the story, the network’s opinion hosts have devoted hours of coverage to promoting and disseminating the Post’s reporting, even as some of the channel’s “hard news” anchors label the story “sketchy” and “completely unverified.”
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Even Fox News knows that Rudy Giuliani is full of Russian shit.

[DOR]

The Voters

The total number of people old enough to vote in the United States in 2020 is 257,605,088, give or take. Of those, 1.45mn are in prison, 1.96mn are on probation, 0.62mn are on parole, and 14.32mn are non-citizens. There are also about five million voters living overseas.

If the numbers are right – and they are the best available – 239.25 million people will be eligible to vote, or about 72.5% of the population. Of those, the actual turnout may be between 55.3% (2000) and 62.2% (2008), or 132.3-148.8mn. That's a gap of 16.5mn, which is easily enough to swing any election. So, turnout is key.

In the five presidential elections since 2000, the highest average turnout is found in Minnesota (averaging 75.2%), followed by Wisconsin (71.5%), and Maine (70.1%). 19 states have turnouts in the 60s, and 26 in the 50s. Hawai'i, which almost always knows the results of the election well before the polls close, has an average turnout of just 45.5%. West Virginia, at 49.4%, has no such excuse.

The data are compiled by University of Florida's Dr Michael McDonald in the United States Election Project, http://www.electproject.org/.


For the actual results, the most comprehensive source I've found is The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/), which shows federal and gubernatorial candidates and votes. It is particularly useful for minor parties coverage, and for keeping track of newly added / dropped candidates. How else would we know that 24 people are running for president, but only 7 for VP?

= = =

I dropped off my ballot this morning.

[TopHatter]

Florida shatters opening day record for early voting

TALLAHASSEE — Florida shattered its opening day record for in-person early voting Monday, with at least 350,000 people casting ballots and election officials continuing to count statewide late into the night.

The trend continues a record-setting pace in the battleground state that is viewed as a must-win for President Donald Trump. Voting by mail, which started earlier this month, racked up more than 2.5 million ballots headed into Monday, more than double the 1.2 million during the same timeframe in 2016.

More than 350,000 voters, some of whom were treated to pizza by singer Ariana Grande while they waited in line, easily surpassed 2016 numbers when 291,000 people voted on the first day of in-person early voting, which includes 52 of Florida’s 67 counties. All counties begin early voting on Saturday.

Democrats have a significant pre-Election Day lead, built by a more than 450,000 vote-by-mail lead, through Monday, but Republicans insist they are just “cannibalizing” their in-person vote. Put another way, they say Democrats are not gaining additional voters, but that voters in candidate Joe Biden's party are just changing how they participate because of Democrats' greater emphasis on voting by mail during a global pandemic.

“Democrats know they can’t compete with our unrivaled ground game,” said Trump Victory spokesperson Emma Vaughn.

Kamala Harris, a California senator and Biden’s running mate, held in-person rallies in Orlando and Jacksonville to boost enthusiasm on the first day of in-person early voting.

“Today I had to come here on kickoff of early voting in Florida, because y’all are going to make it happen,” Harris told an audience in Orlando. “What you will do here in Florida … by early voting is you will be the first to put our country back on the right track.”

Her Florida rally locations were not accidental. Orlando is in the middle of the fabled I-4 corridor, a 19-county swath of the state notoriously packed with swing voters. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has long been Republicans' home turf, but for the first time in recent political history was won by Democrats during the 2018 midterm elections, an outcome they hope to replicate in 2020.

Trump’s campaign, which has blanketed Florida with surrogate appearances in recent weeks, held “Team Trump On Tour” bus events throughout conservative North Florida, including stops in Pensacola and Tallahassee that featured Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Panhandle Republican and top Trump ally.

“Today is really the start of our get out the vote movement, with our supporters wanting to vote in person, or turn their absentee ballots in person at voting locations,” said Leon County GOP Chair Evan Power, who attended the Trump events. “We are confident that our voters will turn out between now and Election Day to support the President and our Republican team.”

Early in the day, there was anecdotal evidence across the state that signaled there could be record turnout. Lines formed in some of Florida’s largest counties before polls opened at 7 a.m., even as rain soaked portions of South Florida.

In Broward County, Parkland Mayor and incoming Democratic state Rep. Christine Hunschofsky posted a video of long lines at a polling site in that county, one of Florida’s bluest.

“It is the longest line I have ever seen at early voting in Parkland,” she tweeted.

Pinellas County, a bellwether that has voted for every winning presidential candidate but one since 1980, also quickly amassed record-setting numbers.

“Over 6,300 people have voted so far in Pinellas County during a record-breaking first day of early voting!" Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections Julie Marcus tweeted at 3:30 p.m.

The Orange County Supervisor of Elections office tweeted just before 4:30 p.m. that it had already seen more than 11,000 votes with more than two hours to go. In 2016, the county saw 16,912 total votes on the first day of early voting.
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[Double Edge]

Sounds like he's in high spirits. Fair to say he's made a full recovery.



Hilarious

[Double Edge]

Now, as for that “the polls do not reflect the mood on the street ” nonsense … which poll told you that? Was it the 48% approve one?
Sorry, you don't get to pick one poll and say it's disproves all the others.

Polls can be calibrated and the samples can be highly skewed in terms of objectively communicating what really the pulse of the people is

Biden is 12 points ahead

Disagree and you have to be ignorant

[Double Edge]

If you knew anything about Pennsylvania that was the least surprising outcome in that state. I was a PA resident for 18 years. Once steel and coal collapsed there was nothing for the Union workforce to hold on to. The State House when GOP. Pittsburgh went from steel and coal to high tech & medical research....Philadelphia banking. The entire middle part was kept Democratic only through Union work in steel & coal. Fracking has allowed some Union work to reappear but nothing like it was.

You say this after the fact isn't it. But before election 2016 why would any one expect PA to go with Trump ? after all ...

The state has gone for every Democratic presidential candidate since 1992.

Hence surprise

on election night 2016, something different happened. For the first time in decades, the voters of rural and suburban Pennsylvania overwhelmed the city-dwellers and went red. Almost all the polls predicted the state was safely in Clinton's grasp. What happened in Pennsylvania on 8 November was a huge upset.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37942545

But what PA has seen is the hollow shell that is Trumpism...which is why Joe Biden leads in almost all polls.

Ah well, i'm thinking if Trump could do it once he can do it again

My room mate was from Erie. He used to read the NYPost. Back in the day I was more the snob and thought only the NYT mattered.

DE,



yes, the person who has lived in both Northern and Southern California for several decades is telling you that California isn't purple.

and also the person who can easily point out at data from 2008, 2012, 2016, 2018 and show you that California has only gone more blue the whole time.



yes, Hillary Clinton. she and Tim Kaine literally spent the most time in that state, with ~30 visits in 20 days.

Not saying CA is going Trump. I'm aware its blue through and through

Why is going purple so hard to accept ?

It may sound absurd but then the world had to put up with Trump