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  • Trump is back in the WH after 72h. This is good news.

    8 months in treatment & therapy have improved and doctors have a better idea now then earlier.

    Let's see how this week unfolds.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
      Trump is back in the WH after 72h. This is good news.
      Depends on one's point of view...

      Comment


      • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

        Trump and the Republicans still have voter suppression/voter intimidation and the gutting of the USPS to fall back on, to at least pull off another Electoral College victory. It can absolutely happen.

        Failing that, unless Biden wins big in every meaningful category (see below), Trump and the Republicans will use every method they can to steal the presidency.
        • Overall popular vote landslide
        • Electoral College landslide
        • Each state he wins is by a landslide
        I really don't see how anything in the linked article comes close to stealing an election in the fashion of a Post-Soviet dictatorship. Clicking into the links:
        -The RNC can have poll watchers in the same fashion as the Democrats, because a nearly 40 year old consent decree has been overturned. But the Trump Campaign already HAD poll watchers, this is just allowing the RNC to fund it directly, so you're going from 62 to 100 (in the entire state of Wisconsin?) There is no full transcript, only edited quips.
        -Yeah, black voters didn't turn out for Hillary like they did for Obama, Trump got a few more black votes than Romney did, and this probably helped him out in a few states. Not really sure what the scandal is here.
        -I don't see anything illegal about the section in mail-in ballots. It is an error-prone system. The errors are noted and the expectation is to file lawsuits to force election commissioners to follow the laws as written.

        I eventually stopped reading the article because it's just so light on content and so long on prophetic dystopia, and the Hunger Games came out almost a decade ago: time for a new fiction genre.


        Either way, I don't think this election is going to be particularly close and I don't think a few court cases are going to change it. It would have to take multiple states completely invalidating their results and sending a slate of GOP electors to turn it, and even then, I HIGHLY doubt the US Supreme Court is anywhere near as nakedly partisan as it is often assumed to be.
        "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

        Comment


        • Originally posted by GVChamp View Post

          I really don't see how anything in the linked article comes close to stealing an election in the fashion of a Post-Soviet dictatorship. Clicking into the links:
          -The RNC can have poll watchers in the same fashion as the Democrats, because a nearly 40 year old consent decree has been overturned. But the Trump Campaign already HAD poll watchers, this is just allowing the RNC to fund it directly, so you're going from 62 to 100 (in the entire state of Wisconsin?) There is no full transcript, only edited quips.
          -Yeah, black voters didn't turn out for Hillary like they did for Obama, Trump got a few more black votes than Romney did, and this probably helped him out in a few states. Not really sure what the scandal is here.
          -I don't see anything illegal about the section in mail-in ballots. It is an error-prone system. The errors are noted and the expectation is to file lawsuits to force election commissioners to follow the laws as written.

          I eventually stopped reading the article because it's just so light on content and so long on prophetic dystopia, and the Hunger Games came out almost a decade ago: time for a new fiction genre.


          Either way, I don't think this election is going to be particularly close and I don't think a few court cases are going to change it. It would have to take multiple states completely invalidating their results and sending a slate of GOP electors to turn it, and even then, I HIGHLY doubt the US Supreme Court is anywhere near as nakedly partisan as it is often assumed to be.
          Remember, there are poll watchers and then there are poll "watchers" ...
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Brothers_riot
          Trust me?
          I'm an economist!

          Comment


          • Originally posted by GVChamp View Post

            I really don't see how anything in the linked article comes close to stealing an election in the fashion of a Post-Soviet dictatorship. Clicking into the links:
            -The RNC can have poll watchers in the same fashion as the Democrats, because a nearly 40 year old consent decree has been overturned. But the Trump Campaign already HAD poll watchers, this is just allowing the RNC to fund it directly, so you're going from 62 to 100 (in the entire state of Wisconsin?) There is no full transcript, only edited quips.
            -Yeah, black voters didn't turn out for Hillary like they did for Obama, Trump got a few more black votes than Romney did, and this probably helped him out in a few states. Not really sure what the scandal is here.
            -I don't see anything illegal about the section in mail-in ballots. It is an error-prone system. The errors are noted and the expectation is to file lawsuits to force election commissioners to follow the laws as written.

            I eventually stopped reading the article because it's just so light on content and so long on prophetic dystopia, and the Hunger Games came out almost a decade ago: time for a new fiction genre.


            Either way, I don't think this election is going to be particularly close and I don't think a few court cases are going to change it. It would have to take multiple states completely invalidating their results and sending a slate of GOP electors to turn it, and even then, I HIGHLY doubt the US Supreme Court is anywhere near as nakedly partisan as it is often assumed to be.
            Does it have to go all the way to Post-Soviet dictatorship to be effective? No, no it does not.

            As DOR said, there's poll watchers and then there's "poll watchers" and then there's POLL WATCHERS.

            Quite honestly I don't really care about who came out for what in 2016. I'm talking about Here, and Now, in 2020.

            I can provide plenty more links detailing how Republicans can fuck over this election and indeed Trump has already heaped doubt on the legitimacy the election months before it's even happened "If I lose, the election is rigged".

            I'm curious to know why you think the election won't be close and in which direction.

            Personally I would love to see a blowout, wherein a large majority of Americans (once again) reject Trump and Trumpism. But a large majority rejecting Trump that didn't keep him out of the White House in 2016 and I'm not counting on that happening this year either. I hope to be proven completely and utterly wrong. But I have no rose colored glasses on this year. Not anymore.

            You say "so light on content and so long on prophetic dystopia", which tells me that the last 4 years of Trump shredding the law and Constitution haven't made the slightest impact on you.

            Dystopia doesn't have to look like The Day After or The Man In The High Castle. It can look like a President brazenly disparaging once-sacred totems of a county, without the slightest consequence. Or openly sneering at the parts of a country's constitution that he finds inconvenient, again without the slightest reaction from his followers, which number in the tens of millions.

            Dystopia can look pretty goddamn normal.
            Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
              Trump is back in the WH after 72h. This is good news.
              Trump's car ride that put Secret Service agents at risk was reportedly a compromise after doctors refused to discharge him from the hospital

              President Donald Trump demanded to leave Walter Reed on Sunday, according to reports from CNN and the New York Times, but doctors urged him against doing so.

              The car ride that Trump took near the hospital, which put Secret Service agents at risk, was a compromise, according to the Times.

              Trump, who tested positive for COVID-19 last week and was subsequently taken to Walter Reed, is reportedly concerned that he looks "weak" being in the hospital.

              The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Insider.

              The president could be seen in the back seat of a car on Sunday wearing a mask and waving to supporters. On Twitter, Trump described the ride as a "little surprise visit to some of the patriots we have out on the street."

              But medical experts had a different take.

              Dr. James P. Phillips, an assistant professor of emergency medicine at George Washington University who is also an attending physician at Walter Reed, said Trump's car ride unnecessarily put lives at risk.

              "Every single person in the vehicle during that completely unnecessary Presidential 'drive-by' just now has to be quarantined for 14 days. They might get sick. They may die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives at risk for theater. This is insanity," Phillips tweeted.

              "That Presidential SUV is not only bulletproof, but hermetically sealed against chemical attack. The risk of COVID19 transmission inside is as high as it gets outside of medical procedures," Phillips added. "The irresponsibility is astounding. My thoughts are with the Secret Service forced to play."

              Beyond medical professionals, current and former Secret Service agents were also alarmed by the incident.

              "He's not even pretending to care now," one agent told the Washington Post on the condition of anonymity, for fear of retribution.

              The White House defended the move against the swift backlash.

              "Appropriate precautions were taken in the execution of this movement to protect the president and all those supporting it," White House spokesperson Judd Deere told reporters on Sunday.

              White House chief of staff Mark Meadows downplayed Trump's risky car ride in a "Fox & Friends" interview on Monday.

              "Here's the interesting thing — they're criticizing, 'well, he put his Secret Service agents at risk.' Well, the Secret Service agents — how do we think he got here?" Meadows said.
              _____________

              Clearly Trump's doctors were confident in his condition to allow him to leave the hospital after 72 hours and pumping him full of a cocktail of experiment drugs.



              Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

              Comment


              • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                Trump and his wife test Positive

                https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/polit...rus/index.html

                Sorry but I can't feel bad for anyone who decides to ignore the seriousness of this virus. Have always felt that if you want to play with fire then you need to be ready to pay the price if it is called in. I'm sorry but it is poetic justice.

                Quarantine now and 33 days before the election and he has HPB and is quite overweight. Question is if he has diabetes II which he would never permit release of that piece of information.

                Next debate Oct. 15th.

                Next Rally???

                I will say one more thing and that is this virus is amazing as it just crossed species again.
                They're saying he got it from one of the staffers. He did not catch it from the rallies.

                At least this man did not insist on shaking hands with covid patients like Boris Johnson.

                Boris is twenty years younger, ended up in the ICU and still isn't his same old self.
                Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Oct 20,, 13:57.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

                  Does it have to go all the way to Post-Soviet dictatorship to be effective? No, no it does not.

                  As DOR said, there's poll watchers and then there's "poll watchers" and then there's POLL WATCHERS.

                  Quite honestly I don't really care about who came out for what in 2016. I'm talking about Here, and Now, in 2020.

                  I can provide plenty more links detailing how Republicans can fuck over this election and indeed Trump has already heaped doubt on the legitimacy the election months before it's even happened "If I lose, the election is rigged".

                  I'm curious to know why you think the election won't be close and in which direction.

                  Personally I would love to see a blowout, wherein a large majority of Americans (once again) reject Trump and Trumpism. But a large majority rejecting Trump that didn't keep him out of the White House in 2016 and I'm not counting on that happening this year either. I hope to be proven completely and utterly wrong. But I have no rose colored glasses on this year. Not anymore.

                  You say "so light on content and so long on prophetic dystopia", which tells me that the last 4 years of Trump shredding the law and Constitution haven't made the slightest impact on you.

                  Dystopia doesn't have to look like The Day After or The Man In The High Castle. It can look like a President brazenly disparaging once-sacred totems of a county, without the slightest consequence. Or openly sneering at the parts of a country's constitution that he finds inconvenient, again without the slightest reaction from his followers, which number in the tens of millions.

                  Dystopia can look pretty goddamn normal.
                  Ultimately I'd say I would have expected Biden to have a 5 point win prior to all this, or something around there, and I'd expect something like +9 or +10 now, which is pretty much as much of a blowout as you can get in a hyper-partisan environment.

                  However, it wouldn't be impossible to have a Trump win, either with outright popular vote plurality or a EV/PV split. Even 538 still has Trump's odds at roughly 1 in 6 last I checked, which means that Trump can still win even with normal race changes and normal polling errors.

                  Neither of those are really likely, but I think both of those are substantially more likely than an election in which the GOP tries to "steal" an election that's won by Biden, and ESPECIALLY more likely than the SC just riding along with it. That'd be a substantial overreach from just disputing Florida or Ohio results.
                  "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

                  Comment


                  • Ultimately I'd say I would have expected Biden to have a 5 point win prior to all this, or something around there, and I'd expect something like +9 or +10 now, which is pretty much as much of a blowout as you can get in a hyper-partisan environment.

                    However, it wouldn't be impossible to have a Trump win, either with outright popular vote plurality or a EV/PV split. Even 538 still has Trump's odds at roughly 1 in 6 last I checked, which means that Trump can still win even with normal race changes and normal polling errors.

                    Neither of those are really likely, but I think both of those are substantially more likely than an election in which the GOP tries to "steal" an election that's won by Biden, and ESPECIALLY more likely than the SC just riding along with it. That'd be a substantial overreach from just disputing Florida or Ohio result.
                    I think that's essentially the GOP strategy now: try to close the point gap to within 4-5, and then with enough shenanigans-- like the post office stuff, questioning of mail-in balloting, lawsuits, etc-- try to force it into either the court system or the House of Representatives.

                    but, the recent Biden polling is such that if it even kinda-sorta holds, all of this will be meaningless, thank God.

                    at this point, Biden is holding -consistently- higher leads than Clinton: both because he's more popular AND because Trump is doing considerably worse than in 2016.

                    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by GVChamp View Post

                      Ultimately I'd say I would have expected Biden to have a 5 point win prior to all this, or something around there, and I'd expect something like +9 or +10 now, which is pretty much as much of a blowout as you can get in a hyper-partisan environment.

                      However, it wouldn't be impossible to have a Trump win, either with outright popular vote plurality or a EV/PV split. Even 538 still has Trump's odds at roughly 1 in 6 last I checked, which means that Trump can still win even with normal race changes and normal polling errors.

                      Neither of those are really likely, but I think both of those are substantially more likely than an election in which the GOP tries to "steal" an election that's won by Biden, and ESPECIALLY more likely than the SC just riding along with it. That'd be a substantial overreach from just disputing Florida or Ohio results.
                      Eric already covered the "stealing the election" part very well, so I won't rehash it.

                      I agree with you that Biden will almost certainly notch a significant popular vote win, just as Clinton did in 2016. But, also as you said, it's not impossible for Trump to pull off an EV win. A PV win doesn't appear likely. 538's odds for a Trump victory are indeed at 17%, which is "high unlikely but not impossible"....personally I don't think the "not impossible" part is in operation here unless we get an October surprise that disembowels Biden's campaign. Incidentally, Biden has now pulled away from even the normal polling margins of error....for now at least.

                      For what it's worth, the Republican money machine appears to agree with you about Trump's chances.

                      But all that is meaningless when it comes to what actually puts you in the White House and it isn't the American voter. And now that Trump has the apparatus of Executive Department firmly in his hands, and is already doing incalculable damage to the election, there's no telling what results will be until the Electoral College votes are certified in the Senate.
                      Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        Mid 40s to lower 50s for total approve is looking safe.

                        Lower forties and staying there is not.
                        His overall Approval Index keeps dropping, I'm guessing due to his non-stop lying about, and downplaying of, COVID.

                        He's down to -15 as of today. His numbers haven't been this bad since early July (a relative eternity ago)

                        He needs to do his usual "pull out of the tailspin" maneuver pretty damn quick.
                        Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

                        Comment


                        • All the evil ones that has wished death upon a certain individual are about to have their heads explode.
                          The physician to the POTUS reports that President Trump has Covid-19 anti-bodies. Nice try China.
                          https://nypost.com/2020/10/07/trump-...ntibodies-doc/

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by surfgun View Post
                            All the evil ones that has wished death upon a certain individual are about to have their heads explode.
                            The physician to the POTUS reports that President Trump has Covid-19 anti-bodies. Nice try China.
                            https://nypost.com/2020/10/07/trump-...ntibodies-doc/
                            Thank GOD! There won't be any of his usual slithering out the back door scot free this time.
                            Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

                              His overall Approval Index keeps dropping, I'm guessing due to his non-stop lying about, and downplaying of, COVID.
                              The optics are bad. Downplaying the pandemic then getting sick brings it to the foreground. How well are you managing the crisis if you get sick yourself.

                              The other view is what he said, he's out there working with people. He wants people back at work and here he is setting an example.

                              If that's true then we can expect an uptick in approve due to sympathy.


                              Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                              He's down to -15 as of today. His numbers haven't been this bad since early July (a relative eternity ago)

                              He needs to do his usual "pull out of the tailspin" maneuver pretty damn quick.
                              The biggest drop in approval index remains Sept 25 to Sept 28, -2 down to -11

                              I think -15 will decrease over the coming days.

                              How long does it take to improve ? only few days

                              Jul 10 - Jul 15 he goes from -15 to -4

                              Jul 15 - Jul 20 drops to -12

                              Jul 20 - Jul 22 up to -5

                              Jul 22 - Jul 29 back down to -13

                              Jul 29 - Aug 03 up to -1

                              and so on.....

                              Getting the timing right when people go to vote, approval index is not lower than -5

                              If its -10 - 15 then he's out


                              Another reason i think the first debate was a draw see

                              Sept 30 - Oct 1 -12 up -6

                              Oct 1 - Oct 2 back down to -12
                              Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Oct 20,, 20:53.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                                The optics are bad. Downplaying the pandemic then getting sick brings it to the foreground. How well are you managing the crisis if you get sick yourself.

                                The other view is what he said, he's out there working with people. He wants people back at work and here he is setting an example.

                                If that's true then we can expect an uptick in approve due to sympathy.
                                He flouted every recommended precaution while "out there working with people", and in the process became a one-man super spreader.

                                I doubt you're going to see an uptick due to sympathy. The majority of Americans say that he brought this on himself....and dozens of others.


                                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                                The biggest drop in approval index remains Sept 25 to Sept 28, -2 down to -11

                                I think -15 will decrease over the coming days.

                                How long does it take to improve ? only few days

                                Jul 10 - Jul 15 he goes from -15 to -4

                                Jul 15 - Jul 20 drops to -12

                                Jul 20 - Jul 22 up to -5

                                Jul 22 - Jul 29 back down to -13

                                Jul 29 - Aug 03 up to -1

                                and so on.....
                                Yes, that's been his pattern.

                                Likely as not, he'll recover, yeah. But like I said: He needs to recover pretty damn quick.
                                Supporting or defending Donald Trump is such an unforgivable moral failing that it calls every bit of your judgement and character into question. Nothing about you should be trusted if you can look at this man and find redeemable value

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