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  • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    Colonel, this is NOT what we did in 1918.
    1918 is N1H1, a completely different virus that frankly is a lot scarier than COVID-19. You catch it at breakfast. You're dead at dinner. Not the current 2 week incubation period. What we learn with COVID-19 is not applicable to any other virus other than the SARS-CORONA family.

    Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    And not everyone catching and dying are in at risk groups. And death is only a partial outcome. Numerous American college athletes who came down with COVID recovered but have enlarged hearts....their careers are over.Same with several MLB players. What pro-sports have done well? MLS, NBA & NHL who have all been in a bubble and get tested regularly.

    The other thing we are not doing is we are not testing anywhere near enough. And while capacity has been ramped up the issue is because of the screwed up American healthcare system and insurance because the issue has become....who pays for the test.
    There will always be outliers. The Black Plague did not stop Mongol Armies from conquering the world even though more Mongol soldiers died from the Black Plaguie than by the sword.

    But the current point is that 97%+ of all COVID-19 infections recover with zero effects. Yes, there are/will be extremely healthy people who died/will die from COVID-19 but the current evidence is that the vast, vast majority will have zero after effects.

    Again, I do not fault the current reaction but as Dr Faucci said, once the evidence comes in, we should adjust. We have not been adjusting.

    The point is that DOR tried to paint Trump rally participants as Darwin Awards nominees. From the statistical perspective, not by a very long shot.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 15 Sep 20,, 19:39.
    Chimo

    Comment


    • “recover with zero effects” ... says who?
      All COVID-19 recoveries are less than 8-10 months in duration.
      Very significant numbers of cases of long-term hospitalization, and long home recovery, are reported.
      Policy analysts are debating if “pre-existing conditions” will include COVID-19.

      Trust me?
      I'm an economist!

      Comment


      • Originally posted by DOR View Post
        “recover with zero effects” ... says who?
        Says the WHO, Health Canada, the CDC, China,

        AND the USN.The USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT has returned to sea with a full crew, includinhg those who recovered from COVID-19

        AND THEY ARE COMBAT EFFECTIVE!

        You want me to go on?
        Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 15 Sep 20,, 22:11.
        Chimo

        Comment


        • You know for someone who is supposed to be an expert at numbers, you really can't read the numbers

          29 million cases world wide, 21 miillion recovered/DISCHARGED!, 931,000 deaths

          For someone who says he believes the scientists. The science is staring AT YOU RIGHT IN THE FACE! 21 miilion people HAVE BEEN DISCHARGED!!!!!

          https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

          SO YEAH RECOVERED WITH ZERO EFFECTS!
          Chimo

          Comment


          • So, where did you read that “discharged” means zero effects?
            ”Discharged” means “better off at home,” or perhaps, “we need the bed for someone else.”
            Trust me?
            I'm an economist!

            Comment


            • moreover, even if you're asymptomatic all the way through, you're likely to infect others.

              also, we all know the 931K deaths is a massive, massive undercount. a comparison of excess mortality rates shows the US is experiencing about +30% higher mortality rate compared to reported COVID deaths.

              bottom-line: yeah, COVID-19 ain't 1918 flu deadly...but it's serious, bad enough where it's the third-leading cause of death for Americans already, even after we purposefully put the economy in a coma via lockdowns and people are kinda-sorta wearing masks on a regular basis now.

              so attending a packed indoor rally is stupid, triply so if you're not wearing a mask.
              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

              Comment


              • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                moreover, even if you're asymptomatic all the way through, you're likely to infect others.

                also, we all know the 931K deaths is a massive, massive undercount. a comparison of excess mortality rates shows the US is experiencing about +30% higher mortality rate compared to reported COVID deaths.

                bottom-line: yeah, COVID-19 ain't 1918 flu deadly...but it's serious, bad enough where it's the third-leading cause of death for Americans already, even after we purposefully put the economy in a coma via lockdowns and people are kinda-sorta wearing masks on a regular basis now.

                so attending a packed indoor rally is stupid, triply so if you're not wearing a mask.
                Its actually an interesting thought experiment if you time travelled this virus back to 1918 and subbed it in for spanish flu.

                Reality is viruses don't really have an intrinsic mortality rate unless you apply zero medical treatment, the mortality rate is a function of the time in history. While mortality rates of the spanich flu vary widely, 2.5% is often cited. Covid 19 in 1918 actually has a decent chance of reacing those numbers or atleast being in that range. The moratlity rate is far lower because of modern healtcare and the elderly and sick being able to protect themelves better in the 21st century, better information, more care from broader society, social safety nets etc.

                It is worth noting that spanish flu did kill many people in their 20s and 30s, possibly strong immune responses were counter productive, so the human years lost would still have been far greater than a 1918 covid 19 pandemic.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                  You know for someone who is supposed to be an expert at numbers, you really can't read the numbers

                  29 million cases world wide, 21 miillion recovered/DISCHARGED!, 931,000 deaths

                  For someone who says he believes the scientists. The science is staring AT YOU RIGHT IN THE FACE! 21 miilion people HAVE BEEN DISCHARGED!!!!!

                  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

                  SO YEAH RECOVERED WITH ZERO EFFECTS!
                  Best to wait to next year before drawing broad conclusions but evidence is buidling for a second "pandemic" of long haulers including some young people who had no problem with the 2 weeks of covid disease initially. Heart and brain symptoms seem front and centre. Obviously people who had severe disease also have lung problems, but evidence seems to suggest milder lung scarring than say SARS. Could be a major burden on health systems in 2021 but right now these people seem to just be lost in the process of events, god help the third world.

                  Comment


                  • Well I just got home from a nursing home in Turlock CA where I spent 4 1/2 hours inside seeing 17 of their residents. Seems 1/3 now have Covid-19 down on their long list of conditions. Conditions almost universally hypertension, diabetes II, dementia, renal failure, copd, and other assorted mental conditions and physical aliments. Went through 1 PPE gown, two masks and 38 pairs of gloves. Outside of one resident trying to punch me, I move fast, things went as well as can be expected. Most nursing homes in California are not letting any ancillaries in but this one did. As for the ones who had Covid-19 it is hard to tell what lasting effects the virus caused given all their other issues and me spending about 15 minutes with each.

                    Comment


                    • The case for voting Trump

                      https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...1f1_story.html

                      I found this article interesting. I usually cant stand most writers who try and justify Trump, it usually means a lot of deflecting, glossing over his glaring problems, blaming the democrats, whataboutism.

                      On the other hand this author acknowledges the some of the serious concerns with Trump, his erratic behavior, his systematic weakening of the Western Alliance and contempt towards America's allies. While I strongly disagree with the conclusions of the article and think that the author does leave out other issues like Trump's incompetence in dealing with the Covid crisis and his deliberate attempt to exacerbate divisions in society, I think the it does address why many right leaning voters might look at Trump as the option that might still cause the lesser damage to the United States inspite of everything.

                      While the Republican Party has been in many ways the more extreme of the two parties over the past decade, it is true that the far left/woke wing of the democrats wields far more power within the party than they did even 4-5 years. Ideas considered fringe as recently as 10 years ago, like universal healthcare, socialism etc are very definitely within the mainstream. I am not sure if the democratic party can remain competitive nationally without the support of the far left.

                      Comment


                      • 1. Universal Healthcare is not a plank in the 2020 Democratic Party Platform. Joe Biden wants to expand the ACA but not replace it with UH.

                        2. The Democrats are not Socialists...anymore than the GOP is Fascists.

                        These are not mainstream Democratic Party values. progressive, yes. Socialist, no. And there is a difference. And of it were the mainstream Joe Biden would not be our candidate.
                        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                        Mark Twain

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                          1. Universal Healthcare is not a plank in the 2020 Democratic Party Platform. Joe Biden wants to expand the ACA but not replace it with UH.

                          2. The Democrats are not Socialists...anymore than the GOP is Fascists.

                          These are not mainstream Democratic Party values. progressive, yes. Socialist, no. And there is a difference. And of it were the mainstream Joe Biden would not be our candidate.
                          Ok, that describes the Democrats and the GOP. Now how do you describe Trumpism which is a political movement centered of the cult of one leader who cares only about his base of support and no one else.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post

                            Ok, that describes the Democrats and the GOP. Now how do you describe Trumpism which is a political movement centered of the cult of one leader who cares only about his base of support and no one else.
                            Lunacy, an infantile disorder of the Right.
                            Trust me?
                            I'm an economist!

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                              1. Universal Healthcare is not a plank in the 2020 Democratic Party Platform. Joe Biden wants to expand the ACA but not replace it with UH.

                              2. The Democrats are not Socialists...anymore than the GOP is Fascists.

                              These are not mainstream Democratic Party values. progressive, yes. Socialist, no. And there is a difference. And of it were the mainstream Joe Biden would not be our candidate.
                              I remember when Bernie Sanders was first elected Senator he was considered something of a novelty, although this year he came pretty close to being a viable candidate for the Presidential nominee. There are Democrats, even prominent politicians like AOC who openly wear the label of 'Democratic Socialist'. Additionally the Woke wing of the part is louder, more intolerant when it comes to opposing viewpoints and better when it comes to silencing voices through intimidation on social media. Even senior leaders were slow to criticize the violence and riots over the summer.

                              However, I agree that the far left of the Democrats does not dominate the party, especially the legislative agenda the way the right wing of the Republican party does under Trump. I wouldn't agree with pointing to the radicalism of some on the left to justify voting for Trump as a lesser evil.

                              Comment


                              • Jim Rogers says President Trump will win a second term. If I had a vote, considering the current geo-political scenarios, it would go to President Trump as China will feel the heat much stronger this time around. Having said that, considering his erratic deal-making strategy with just about any country, my confidence wanes.
                                Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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