The US 2020 Presidential Election

[DOR]

Never seen such a carnival of lies as this Trumpian worship RNC. I thought it said it all when they had no agenda but now they claim they have one - one that is all lies.

Remember, because absolutely nothing has changed in the past four years -- not a single thing! -- there was no need to update the GOPer party platform from v. 2016.

[DOR]

Question? Should Biden debate Trump?

1st Presidential Debate
Vice President Biden: “Mr President, how can you sleep at night after multiple disasters that have tormented our nation because of your ineptitude, lack of interest in policy matters, and criminal malfeasance?”

The Trumpet: blah blah blah

Vice President Biden: “Mr President, have you no shame?”

Repeat as necessary

[zraver]

Oh and today is Friday and the witching hour, the weekend, is coming.

Ratings are coming out. DNC drew more than TNC. Biden drew more than Trump.

Wait for it...tweet...spin...dark conspiracy...media...

The difference is minimal. Roughly speaking for every 330-660 people, 1 more person watched the DNC v RNC depending on night but of that 330 people only about 51-63 people tuned in at all to either, and many of them tuned into both. Both conventions were ratings flops.

[Albany Rifles]

I meant if the primary had been later or covid earlier it would have been viewed beyond just trump and who is best placed to beat him.

I appreciate the outcome most likely remains the same.

Okay...got it. Didn't pick up on that.

Bottomline is Bernie is and will always remain a fringe candidate. In 25 years he may be mainstream but not now.

[Albany Rifles]

Sure, why not?
At least two out of three ...

Launch any unnecessary wars of aggression against the only secular government in the Middle East lately?
Sang "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" lately?

As for Romney, he will rise in my estimation the day he announces that he has left the GOPers for a party with a greater sense of loyalty to the nation.

McCain was a hawk...but I don't believe he would have actually launched a war. As a mainline politician he would have appointed a cabinet of rational folk I believe. Don't think they would have gone along with that....

Romney is far from perfect...but he was governor of Massachusetts and did introduce a medical plan which the ACA is based on. He did vote for one article of impeachment. I look at him like he is the Republicans Joe Manchin....I mean he is far from preferable but I can get what I need from him on the really important votes. He selected Ryan not cause he wanted him but it was in the immediate aftermath of the Tea Party and he had to select their darling. Real Politik.

[GVChamp]

Bernie has competed in major party primaries twice and earned the 2nd most votes in the contests each time. The first time he cleared 40%. That's not a fringe candidate, that's a viable base to win a Presidential primary, and there are probably alternate universes where Bernie is the 2020 Democratic nominee. That absolutely means 2024 and 2028 are excellent targets for a Democratic Socialist Democratic candidate.

[Albany Rifles]

Bernie has competed in major party primaries twice and earned the 2nd most votes in the contests each time. The first time he cleared 40%. That's not a fringe candidate, that's a viable base to win a Presidential primary, and there are probably alternate universes where Bernie is the 2020 Democratic nominee. That absolutely means 2024 and 2028 are excellent targets for a Democratic Socialist Democratic candidate.

Bernie had early success in niche elections. Once he hit the mainstream he fell off quickly amongst the base. He is not the frontrunner for DNC in 24 or 28.

His biggest failure is he has not been a member of the Democratic Party and has done nothing to help Democratic candidates get elected writ large before this year. He learned his lesson after his very tepid support for Mrs. Clinton in 2016.

[tantalus]

Okay...got it. Didn't pick up on that.

Bottomline is Bernie is and will always remain a fringe candidate. In 25 years he may be mainstream but not now.

Well he is too old now. I guess it depends on your defintion of fringe. But it looks to me that he got pretty close and it required consolidation to stop him this time round.

The demographics will favour his spirtual successor and sometimes a great deal of change can occur very quickly. Covid and the economic damage it inflicts combined with rapid automation and a software eats everything/tech driven/labour light takeover of the economy offer potential catalysts that could terraform the landscape rapidly.

[tantalus]

Bernie has competed in major party primaries twice and earned the 2nd most votes in the contests each time. The first time he cleared 40%. That's not a fringe candidate, that's a viable base to win a Presidential primary, and there are probably alternate universes where Bernie is the 2020 Democratic nominee. That absolutely means 2024 and 2028 are excellent targets for a Democratic Socialist Democratic candidate.

This makes sense to me

[astralis]

Bernie has competed in major party primaries twice and earned the 2nd most votes in the contests each time. The first time he cleared 40%. That's not a fringe candidate, that's a viable base to win a Presidential primary, and there are probably alternate universes where Bernie is the 2020 Democratic nominee. That absolutely means 2024 and 2028 are excellent targets for a Democratic Socialist Democratic candidate.

too many unknowns on the Democratic side to make this call.

IE, say Biden loses in November. in that case, I definitely agree that 2024 there's a significant chance that the Dems nominate a lefty, because this will be two elections now that they've had to shut up and color for the establishment choice on arguments of "electability", and lost anyway.

but if Biden wins? then absent Harris standing in the middle of 5th Avenue and shooting someone, she WILL be the Democratic nominee if Biden doesn't feel like a second term. same with 2028.

[DOR]

Biden 75% of the delegate count.
The fact that Sen. Sanders held on longer than the other interesting candidates should not be confused with his being a serious contender.

[Albany Rifles]

Well he is too old now. I guess it depends on your defintion of fringe. But it looks to me that he got pretty close and it required consolidation to stop him this time round.

The demographics will favour his spirtual successor and sometimes a great deal of change can occur very quickly. Covid and the economic damage it inflicts combined with rapid automation and a software eats everything/tech driven/labour light takeover of the economy offer potential catalysts that could terraform the landscape rapidly.

As I said he did well in the screwy Iowa caucus system and then won in a home court game in New England.

Then he, and the rest of the field, ran into the Blue Wall in South Carolina. Once he hit the mainstream of the Democratic Party he was stopped cold. He picked up some crumbs but nothing major. And once Biden started showing serious momentum Bernie couldn't turn out his base...the Bernie Backers stayed home in droves.


Biden shows he knows his politics by reaching out to him & Warren to hopefully woo some of his supporters.

[GVChamp]

Bernie won pluralities in Nevada, Colorado, and California. He had respectable shares in a number of other states and probably would have done better had Warren not still been in the race.

To put in comparison, Bernie's vote share in 2020 eclipsed Romney's in 2008, and his vote share in 2016 eclipsed John McCain's in 2000.

[Albany Rifles]

Bernie won pluralities in Nevada, Colorado, and California. He had respectable shares in a number of other states and probably would have done better had Warren not still been in the race.

To put in comparison, Bernie's vote share in 2020 eclipsed Romney's in 2008, and his vote share in 2016 eclipsed John McCain's in 2000.

And ended up with only 25% of the delegates. Again, his doing well in those states are not the least bit surprising...they match to his constituency. But in the mainstream Democratic areas he did not do as well. Trust me, I have been a staff member of the Democratic Party of Virginia for over 20 years. My siblings the same in NY, MA & CT...so were my parents. All five have run and been elected as Democrats for town or city wide office. They see the same thing. The mainstream of the party sees Bernie as an interloper as he did nothing for the national party or other Democratic candidates until the last 4 years...begrudgingly.

Give it 8-10 years and things can and will no doubt shift...but as of now he is not the mainstream of the party.

[tantalus]

And ended up with only 25% of the delegates. Again, his doing well in those states are not the least bit surprising...they match to his constituency. But in the mainstream Democratic areas he did not do as well. Trust me, I have been a staff member of the Democratic Party of Virginia for over 20 years. My siblings the same in NY, MA & CT...so were my parents. All five have run and been elected as Democrats for town or city wide office. They see the same thing. The mainstream of the party sees Bernie as an interloper as he did nothing for the national party or other Democratic candidates until the last 4 years...begrudgingly.

Give it 8-10 years and things can and will no doubt shift...but as of now he is not the mainstream of the party.

There is no doubt he is not the mainstream of the party. And is viewed by the power holders of the party as an outsider. But I think fringe doesnt quite capture it either. Too far in the other direction.