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The US 2020 Presidential Election

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  • tbm3fan
    replied
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post

    He's old enough and he did mention Gingrich

    He added there was still bipartisanship back then.
    No there wasn't. In fact I can date the last time I voted Republican was just before Gingrich since afterwards he believed in a no prisoners attitude and that wasn't the Republican Party I knew in the 70s.

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  • TopHatter
    replied
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post

    1% lead in FL for Biden

    I wanted to say Trump could take PA & WI if he did it last time but every one disagrees : |
    How much did he win PA and WI by last time?

    ...the three states that Clinton lost by eight-tenths of a point or less: Michigan (0.2 percentage points) Pennsylvania (0.7), and Wisconsin (0.8). Charlie Cook

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  • Double Edge
    replied
    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
    1% lead in FL for Biden

    I wanted to say Trump could take PA & WI if he did it last time but every one disagrees : |

    Leave a comment:


  • TopHatter
    replied
    Denialism, Dishonesty, Deflection: The Final Days of the Trump Campaign Have It All

    No one wants to admit it, but in Washington, D.C., the election might as well be over—except for the what-if-the-polls-are-wrong jitters, which are real and have been the stuff not just of nightmares but of all-day worrying since Donald Trump’s 2016 upset. Still, there are post-election plans to be made, lobbying strategies to be gamed out, Cabinet positions to speculate about. The election forecasters at The Economist currently give Joe Biden a ninety-six-per-cent chance of winning the Electoral College. According to the political Web site FiveThirtyEight, the former Vice-President has an only slightly more circumspect eighty-nine-per-cent chance. The Cook Political Report has moved Texas into the tossup category—Texas, which has not gone Democratic since Jimmy Carter, in 1976. No wonder the rumors are rife about Biden’s White House, about who will get what job and why. Will Susan Rice, a surprise finalist for Vice-President, be tapped as Secretary of State? Is Ron Klain a lock for White House chief of staff? On Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she was “very confident” that Biden will win, and spent her weekly press conference outlining her governing agenda for the new Administration, from instituting green infrastructure policies to lowering the cost of prescription drugs. Politico has already started on a transition newsletter, though I am trying not to read it.

    This is not because I don’t believe the polls. The election may, in fact, be over. In truth, the polls matter less and less every day from here on in. As I wrote this column, on Thursday, more than seventy million Americans had voted, and there are still five days to go. In some places, more voters have cast their ballots in early voting than in the entire 2016 election. In other words, it’s already the equivalent of 2 p.m.. on Election Day. A late revelation—yet another Trump scandal, or an attack on Biden—can’t change votes that have been cast. And, besides, who is going to change their minds about Donald Trump now, anyway? Since winning four years ago, in a fluke of our electoral system, he has been the most omnipresent, overexposed President in American history. Everybody has an opinion of him, and he has never, for a single day of his Presidency, had the support of a majority of the American people. That is not going to suddenly flip over a Halloween weekend, at a time when thousands of Americans are sick or dying because of a pandemic that he claims is no big deal.

    Back in early September, the election already looked to me like a race in which everything happens and nothing matters, with remarkably fixed voter preferences and a remarkably stable set of polls showing Biden with a strong, though not overwhelming, lead. With only five days left until Election Day, this is still the case. Much has indeed happened this fall: scandals that would have destroyed anyone other than Trump. His bout of covid-19 and subsequent tour of the country proclaiming that the coronavirus is being vanquished—even as case levels are hitting record highs. His disastrous performance in the first Presidential debate and ferocious late efforts to label Biden a corrupt and out-of-touch career politician. Through it all, Biden’s lead has held more or less steady. So let’s stipulate—although we won’t know for sure for some days—that the polls are more or less correct. Even without knowing for sure, it is already fair to say that, should Trump prevail, it would be even more unprecedented in modern American politics than his 2016 win—and is, therefore, even less likely.

    I have a different fear this time: What if the polls are right—and Trump still wins? The election may be over, but the counting is not. His path to victory through the Electoral College may rest with only a few states where Election Night results are ambiguous enough that Trump could question them and, instead, pursue a win via friendly Republican state legislatures and the pro-Trump Supreme Court. Trump has already spent months laying the groundwork for this, pre-emptively attacking the “rigged” election, baselessly suggesting widespread voter fraud in the use of mail-in ballots, and authorizing lawsuits to push for as many restrictive conditions on voting as possible in key states. An American President attacking American democracy in advance of an election has simply never been seen before. But he continues to do it every day, in the final run-up to November 3rd. Whatever the election’s outcome, this is already one of the greatest political scandals of our time, and a lasting blot on Trump’s record.

    Whether or not Trump once again succeeds in pulling an unlikely win out of a near-certain defeat, this fall’s campaign may well go down as one of the most scandalous periods of his norm-shattering Presidency. Trump in recent weeks has openly flirted with white supremacy and bizarre conspiracy theories. He has demanded that the U.S. government investigate and jail Biden—it is not clear for what—and he has publicly threatened to fire the F.B.I. director and the Attorney General for failing to do so. He has held rallies at which his supporters chanted “Lock him up,” and did and said nothing to stop them. He has broadcast so much misinformation that social-media platforms such as Twitter have, for the first time, regularly warned readers about the veracity of his posts. He has lied so much that the Times found seventy-five per cent of his statements during a single rally to be untrue. He has issued orders that threaten to politicize the government long after he is gone, including an executive order, last week, which would remove key protections from the professional civil service; the potential consequences of this move are so significant that, on Monday, the Republican Trump appointee who would have to oversee it resigned in protest, warning that the decision will “replace apolitical expertise with political obeisance” across the government.

    In recent weeks, scandalous revelations about Trump’s corruption include the Times’ reporting on hundreds of millions of dollars of debt that Trump is personally liable for. (He will not say to whom.) The Washington Post disclosed this week that Trump has used his power to direct at least eight million dollars from the U.S. government—–and his political supporters—into his personal businesses since he took office. The consequences of Trump’s Presidency, meanwhile, include the forcible separation of at least twenty-six hundred migrant children from their parents at the southern border, and last week the awful news came out that five hundred and forty-five of these children are now stranded alone in the United States, owing to the authorities being unable to locate their mothers or fathers.

    And this parade of horrors, of course, also includes Trump’s record on the coronavirus, a disastrous performance that, as of this week, has left more than two hundred and twenty thousand Americans dead. Universal mask-wearing could prevent perhaps a hundred and thirty thousand Americans from dying, according to a study in the scientific journal Nature which was released earlier this month. Yet Trump not only refuses to issue a national mask mandate; he has repeatedly and publicly questioned the need for mask-wearing during the fall campaign and has held numerous White House events with packed crowds of unmasked attendees.

    The most notable such event, of course, was the public announcement, in late September, of his nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. So many coronavirus cases apparently resulted from that gathering, on the White House lawn, that even government public-health officials labelled it a “superspreader” event. Trump has been extraordinarily blunt in admitting that his main reason for pushing Barrett’s nomination through so close to November 3rd was to insure his own reelection, an effort that culminated in this Monday’s Senate vote to confirm Barrett, just eight days before Election Day. “I think this will end up in the Supreme Court,” Trump said of the election, “and I think it’s very important that we have nine Justices,” rather than risk a 4–4 tie. The vote for a Supreme Court Justice so close to an election was unprecedented, and yet it was just another violation in a campaign full of them. Trump’s comment about why he was pushing for Barrett now was a norm-shattering scandal in its own right, undermining the legitimacy of the high court at a time when it is urgently needed.

    In many ways, the whole Trump Presidency can be encapsulated in the past few days and weeks. It is self-dealing, denialism, dishonesty, and deflection. It is narcissism, recklessness, and disregard for the public good—and for democracy itself. There is nothing and no one he has not corrupted—or tried to. Even the remaining uncertainty about the election’s outcome is a product of Trump’s cynical, self-serving, and dangerous assault on the political system. Washington can read the polls, but after four years there’s still no poll that can fully account for this President. Folks, it ain’t over till it’s over.
    _______________

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  • Double Edge
    replied
    Originally posted by DOR View Post

    Not immediately in a position to look at your source, but he might be too young to remember Newt Gingrich’s days as Speaker of the House of Representatives. By which I mean, the second big push — after Reagan’s embrace of the Holier-Than-Thou / NRA wing of the far right — to divide and destroy bipartisanship.

    Famous 1970s quote: It doesn’t matter what you believe, or what your policies are, unless you get into office.

    He's old enough and he did mention Gingrich

    He added there was still bipartisanship back then.

    Leave a comment:


  • TopHatter
    replied
    District Attorney Krasner to Donald Trump: Leave Philly Alone
    PHILADELPHIA (Oct. 28, 2020) — Less than a week out from the most significant U.S. election in generations, District Attorney Larry Krasner on Wednesday denounced baseless, incendiary provocations from the Trump Administration and warned that any criminal and violent attempts to interfere with Election Day activities or constitutionally required transfers of power would be dealt with swiftly by the District Attorney’s Office:

    “The Trump Administration’s efforts to suppress votes amid a global pandemic fueled by their disregard for human life will not be tolerated in the birthplace of American democracy. Philadelphians from a diversity of political opinions believe strongly in the rule of law, in fair and free elections, and in a democratic system of government. We will not be cowed or ruled by a lawless, power-hungry despot. Some folks learned that the hard way in the 1700s.

    Donald Trump claims to be a ‘law and order’ president, but his administration has posed the greatest danger to public health and safety in modern history. More than 227,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, and we are again seeing infections spike across the country. More than 100 police officers have died from COVID-19 this year — more than died from all other causes — including in the line of duty — combined.

    “Philadelphians are grieving the fatal shooting by police of a Black man who appeared to be in mental health crisis. Instead of working with cities and states to improve accountability and efficacy in policing, instead of supporting and strengthening Black communities, the Trump Administration seeks to throw gasoline on a long-burning fire in order to provoke further unrest and violence ahead of an election he is terrified to lose.

    “My office is working, as it always does, to hold accountable all those who cause harm, irrespective of status or position. Today, we filed a dozen serious charges against an individual responsible for seriously injuring a Philadelphia Police sergeant by hitting her with a vehicle during the unrest this week. That person is sitting in jail and is being held on $999,999 bail. My office is also investigating the police shooting death of Walter Wallace, Jr., because justice demands accountability for every death at the hands of government actors — whether on the streets or in prisons or in the ICE facilities where Donald Trump is caging children.

    “The Philadelphia District Attorney’s Office continues to work with our partners in law enforcement and government to ensure every voter gets to vote and that every vote is counted. Keep your Proud Boys, goon squads, and uncertified ‘poll watchers’ out of our city, Mr. President. Break the law here, and I’ve got something for you.”
    ______________

    Several people I've spoken to about Trump cite the (supposed) fact that he "fights" as a prime reason for their adoration of him.

    In actual fact, THIS is what 'fighting' looks like.

    “Keep your Proud Boys, goon squads, and uncertified ‘poll watchers’ out of our city, Mr. President. Break the law here, and I’ve got something for you.”

    Leave a comment:


  • TopHatter
    replied
    Originally posted by astralis View Post
    it'd be even funnier if Trump loses Texas.
    That would be the ultimate slap in the face the GOP. It could also presage a 400+ EC rout by Biden.

    Personally I'll be happy with a Biden win that doesn't get somehow negated by Trump's court-packing.

    Leave a comment:


  • astralis
    replied
    it'd be even funnier if Trump loses Texas.

    Leave a comment:


  • DOR
    replied
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    Commentator was talking about the decline of bipartisanship. He traced its start to the Obama administration.

    Think what will happen if Trump wins a second term. People are talking about riots.

    It's not that he won't step down if he loses but all hell will break lose if he wins.

    If he loses he might have to move to another country.
    Not immediately in a position to look at your source, but he might be too young to remember Newt Gingrich’s days as Speaker of the House of Representatives. By which I mean, the second big push — after Reagan’s embrace of the Holier-Than-Thou / NRA wing of the far right — to divide and destroy bipartisanship.

    Famous 1970s quote: It doesn’t matter what you believe, or what your policies are, unless you get into office.


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  • TopHatter
    replied
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    Trump loses FL he's gone. But Biden still has chances if he loses FL
    Absolutely correct

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  • Double Edge
    replied
    Trump loses FL he's gone. But Biden still has chances if he loses FL

    Leave a comment:


  • TopHatter
    replied
    Republicans are narrowing the early voting gap in these states
    (CNN)In four key states -- Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Iowa -- Republicans are beginning to narrow the Democratic advantage in pre-Election Day voting.

    More than 12 million ballots have been cast in these four states, which could be crucial in determining the next president.

    The candidates' schedules reflect the focus on these states. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden were both in Florida on Thursday campaigning for the state's 29 electoral votes. Later, Trump was set to travel to North Carolina, while Vice President Mike Pence was scheduled for campaign stops in Iowa and Nevada. Biden is due in Iowa on Friday.
    With five days until November 3, here's a deeper look at who's already voted in these key states, with data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue-advocacy organizations

    Florida
    Trump won Florida by slightly over one percentage point last cycle.
    In the last week, voters under 30 have slightly increased their share of Florida's early voting electorate, from 8% to 10%. Other age groups have also seen small increases, further diminishing the dominance of Florida's senior voters 65 or older, who made up 45% of early voters a week ago, but now make up only 39%.
    Florida's early voting electorate is slightly more diverse than at this time four years ago. Hispanic voters' share of the pre-Election Day vote has increased from 14% four years ago to 16% now, and Black voters' share has ticked slightly up from 12% then to 13% now. The vote from White voters is down three points from this point in 2016.
    Republicans are narrowing the gap in pre-election ballots cast. Democrats currently lead by four points. A week ago, it was nine points. Party advantage is not predictive of outcome -- but nationwide polling shows many Republicans also prefer voting in person on Election Day rather than early.

    North Carolina
    Trump won the Tar Heel State by more than three percentage points in 2016.
    Young people are continuing to vote in large numbers in North Carolina. Last week, voters under 30 made up about 11% of early voters but that's now ticked up slightly to over 12%.
    Democrats have lost some of their lead in the pre-election vote. Last week, they had a 12-point advantage over Republicans in ballots cast. Currently, it stands at eight points.
    By race, White voters account for the majority of ballots already cast in North Carolina at 72%, followed by Black voters with the second largest share of those ballots at 22%. This remains nearly identical to the racial composition of the early voting electorate four years ago.

    Iowa
    Iowa remains a competitive battleground this cycle after Trump won the Hawkeye State by more than nine percentage points in 2016. The state also has a key Senate race between incumbent Republican Joni Ernst and Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield.
    Democrats continue to cast pre-election ballots at a much higher rate than Republicans, similar to 2016. At 49% of the pre-election vote, Democrats have a 17-point lead over Republicans, who stand at 32%. Republicans, however, have slightly narrowed that gap over the last week by four points.
    By race, Iowa's current pre-Election Day electorate is similar to this point in 2016, with White voters comprising the vast majority of early voters at 94%.
    Iowa hasn't seen as large a shift in age breakdown as some other states. Voters under 30 make up 10% of all early voters -- up only three points from this time four years ago. Voters 30-64 are up five points from 42% of turnout at this point four years ago to 47% now. Voters 65 and older make up a smaller share of early voters than at this point four years ago.

    Nevada
    Nevada had a narrow margin of defeat for Trump four years ago, with about two percentage points separating him from Hillary Clinton.
    Nevada's early voting electorate is trending younger compared to the last week. Eleven percent of voters so far are under 30; last week it was only 9%. Voters 65 or older have gone from 40% of early voters last week to 35% now.
    About two-thirds of Nevada's pre-election ballots come from White voters, which is a small decrease from 70% four years ago. Hispanic voters make up the second largest share of those ballots at 13%, a slight uptick from in 2016. Black voters and Asian voters have also seen one-percentage-point increases in their shares of the early vote.Republicans are narrowing the Democratic advantage in the pre-election vote. Last week, Democrats led Republicans by 12 points. As more ballots have been returned in the vote-by-mail state, the 42% of ballots cast by Democrats is now only seven points higher than Republicans' 35%.

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  • Double Edge
    replied
    Big tech comes prepared with veiled threats about regulation following the NYPost debacle.

    That story got pulled quick but another from China ran for sixty days before the fact checkers decided it was wrong.

    Pretty obvious the bias here as he points out.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 30 Oct 20,, 00:16.

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  • Double Edge
    replied
    Commentator was talking about the decline of bipartisanship. He traced its start to the Obama administration.

    Think what will happen if Trump wins a second term. People are talking about riots.

    It's not that he won't step down if he loses but all hell will break lose if he wins.

    If he loses he might have to move to another country.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 29 Oct 20,, 23:53.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bigfella
    replied
    It occoured to me the other day that decades ago people used to laugh at conspiracy theorist Lyndon LaRouche when he ran for President and saw his followers for the cult they were. Now America has a President almost as detached from acceptable norms & reality as LaRouche and tens of millions of citizens acting the exact same way LaRouche followers used to.

    Talk about the decline of the Republic.

    Leave a comment:

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