Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The US 2020 Presidential Election

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • I see Nate Silver has Biden where Hilary was on probability projections 72-28. That said their model has Trumps chances that high because of the time to election which gives a higher probability that Trump can alter the calculus. If the election was tomorrow his chances would be far lower.

    Comment


    • Yeah, it's important to NOT confuse Biden's chances with Hillary's chances. Hillary had a small polling lead on election day, really within a typical polling error, and an error in one state implies errors in other states: IE, if Hillary loses Pennsylvania, she is also likely to lose Wisconsin and Michigan. That's why she had a 1 in 3 chance of losing.

      Biden has a 1 in 3 chance of losing because a lot can happen in 3 months. Dubya and Dukkakis were both winning by double-digits and totally blew it before Election Day. As Election Day comes closer, there is less time for Trump to gain ground. If the Election were held tomorrow, 9/10 chance Trump would lose. National polls have Biden up by 7-10.

      Most betting odds, at least according to the RCP website, have Biden's lower, between 55-60%.
      "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

      Comment


      • Originally posted by GVChamp View Post
        Yeah, it's important to NOT confuse Biden's chances with Hillary's chances. Hillary had a small polling lead on election day, really within a typical polling error, and an error in one state implies errors in other states: IE, if Hillary loses Pennsylvania, she is also likely to lose Wisconsin and Michigan. That's why she had a 1 in 3 chance of losing.

        Biden has a 1 in 3 chance of losing because a lot can happen in 3 months. Dubya and Dukkakis were both winning by double-digits and totally blew it before Election Day. As Election Day comes closer, there is less time for Trump to gain ground. If the Election were held tomorrow, 9/10 chance Trump would lose. National polls have Biden up by 7-10.

        Most betting odds, at least according to the RCP website, have Biden's lower, between 55-60%.
        Cant help but think that the chances of altering the polls is lower in trumps case compared to previous elections on account of political polarization and the dynamics of infectious diseases but the point is noted. Lets see what happens.

        I personally think biden is a terrible candidate but the pandemic is helping mask that (no pun intended) and Trump is.... well...doing his best to lose the election.

        Comment


        • Ultimately I think this is just about fundraising and having someone being an Attack Dog for the campaign
          isn't that precisely what a VP is for?
          There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

          Comment


          • Originally posted by DOR View Post
            Trump admits he's refusing to fund the US Postal Service to sabotage mail-in voting


            Grace Panetta, Business Insider (https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...-voting-2020-8)

            President Donald Trump told Fox Business on Thursday morning that he would block additional funding and election assistance for the US Postal Service to sabotage mail-in voting.

            On Wednesday and Thursday, Trump said he would not sign off on any relief bill that includes emergency federal funds for the USPS and more money to process election-related mail.

            "They want $25 billion — billion — for the post office. Now they need that money in order to have the post office work so it can take all of these millions and millions of ballots," Trump said on Thursday, adding, "But if they don't get those two items, that means you can't have universal mail-in voting."

            =UPDATE=


            "Whoever, being a person employed in any administrative position by the United States, or by any department or agency thereof, or by the District of Columbia or any agency or instrumentality thereof, or by any State, Territory, or Possession of the United States, or any political subdivision, municipality, or agency thereof, or agency of such political subdivision or municipality (including any corporation owned or controlled by any State, Territory, or Possession of the United States or by any such political subdivision, municipality, or agency), in connection with any activity which is financed in whole or in part by loans or grants made by the United States, or any department or agency thereof, uses his official authority for the purpose of interfering with, or affecting, the nomination or the election of any candidate for the office of President, Vice President, Presidential elector, Member of the Senate, Member of the House of Representatives, Delegate from the District of Columbia, or Resident Commissioner, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both." Title 18 U.S. Code § 595.
            Trust me?
            I'm an economist!

            Comment


            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
              BF,



              I used to have hope for this but I really don't think so anymore.

              even if Trump is defeated in an enormous landslide, there's no real opposing pole in the GOP that can capitalize on Trump's lowered standing to re-take the leadership reins. Larry Hogan, bless his heart, is trying, but he's not going to get anywhere. the base will not tolerate any more "Mitt Romney" types.

              the enormous inclination will be to blame Trump's loss on the man himself, and nominate someone whom advocates Trumpism without mindlessly pissing off everyone he/she talks to. Don Jr is sitting in the wings...
              Asty,

              I wasn't predicting the outcome of the fight, just that there would be one. If trump loses, especially badly, the non-Trumpist elements in the party will see an opportunity. Meanwhile, Trumpist elements who have already begun purging the party in much the same way the Tea party did a decade ago - thus people who rode in on the TP wave are no longer sufficiently right wing/racist/crazy to qualify. My bet is that the fighting that follows a Trump loss will comfortably overshadow what has happened in the Dems over the past 4 years.
              sigpic

              Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

              Comment


              • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                Next time you're crawling the walls, desperate for something -- anything! -- that will break the monotony, try this ... but only as a last resort:
                Tea before milk.

                Game changer.
                Oops! Translation error.

                When I say 'tea time' or 'what I'm having for tea' I'm referring to the evening meal, not the drink. I'm afraid that I don't much like tea the drink, and only ever have it in chinese restaurants. Don't drink coffee either. I inherited this quirk from my mother, who had the misfortune to grow up as a non-tea (or coffee) drinker in 1950s rural Australia. As tea drinking was the foundation of all social ritual for females in this setting, Mum caused all manner of upset & even chaos, with panicked people resorting to offering her boiled water (such things as juice or soft drink rarely being available).

                As a result the whole argument over the sequencing of milk or exactly how much sugar is appropriate is completely lost on me. The only time I even have tea in the house is if I have guests staying who drink it, and then I ask them what to buy & insist they prepare it themselves. For the record, tea last night was a sort of Thai curry rice with chicken - a dish largely of my own invention. Tonight I'll be buying some fried chicken & hot chips from a local shop. Tommorrow might will likely be some reheated shiro wot, a delicious spicy Ethiopian stew made of ground chick peas & served with home made injera (not my home sadly). :-)
                sigpic

                Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

                Comment


                • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                  Damned. We sufferred worst than you and we're not this bad even during the worst of it. Social distancing. No gathering bigger than 3. Face mask/shield (though you are exempt if you say you have a condition - with zero proof needed) in all indoor public places.
                  We are desperately trying to avoid the heavier casualties other places suffered. The virus is under control or non-existent in the rest of Australia, so we are unofficially trying for somethign close to elimination.

                  BTW, we break all these rules when any of my neighbours need help. Calving season and stacking hay don't care about COVID-19. When you rely on sunlight to get things done, you don't have time to sanitize everything the farmer's wife is bringing you to eat. Masks? They clogged up real fast when stacking bay. Wet bandannas is the only thing that keeps things tolerable.
                  Rules are looser in rural areas and looser still when it comes to farming. We are in winter, so farms aren't in their busiest season. Many areas have had zero cases and travel from city to country areas is extremely limited.

                  Scotch. After the first finger, you wouldn't care if it's new or not.
                  As it is winter I'm busy reacquainting myself with my supply of quality Cognac. With appropriate warming time it is ideal for a cold Melbourne evening. The Scotch will have to wait a coulpe of months, though its time will most definitely come. :-)
                  sigpic

                  Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

                  Comment


                  • Well that didn't take long:

                    President Trump on Thursday encouraged a racist conspiracy theory that is rampant among some of his followers: that Senator Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic vice-presidential nominee born in California, was not eligible for the vice presidency or presidency because her parents were immigrants.

                    That assertion is false; Ms. Harris is eligible to serve.

                    Mr. Trump, speaking to reporters on Thursday, nevertheless pushed the attack on his opponent. “I heard it today that she doesn’t meet the requirements,” Mr. Trump said.

                    “I have no idea if that’s right,” he added. “I would have thought, I would have assumed, that the Democrats would have checked that out before she gets chosen to run for vice president.”

                    Mr. Trump appeared to be referencing a widely discredited op-ed written in Newsweek by John C. Eastman, a conservative attorney who has long argued that the United States Constitution does not grant birthright citizenship, as proof. Ms. Harris, the daughter of Jamaican and Indian immigrants, was born in 1964 in Oakland, Calif., several years after her parents arrived in the United States.

                    In the hours after Joseph R. Biden Jr. announced Ms. Harris as his running mate, a new crop of memes and conspiracy website postings began proliferating online, suggesting that the junior senator was an “anchor baby” because of her background.
                    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/08...gtype=Homepage

                    One day & the race-based attacks begin. This is going to get uglier.
                    sigpic

                    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      isn't that precisely what a vp is for?

                      *bingo*
                      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                      Mark Twain

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                        isn't that precisely what a VP is for?
                        Not really?
                        Tim Kaine: moderate conservative catholic who is well established in Dem Circles
                        Mike Pence: Please take us seriously, this is the only guy who wanted to hitch his wagon to Trump. But after the election, no worries, he'll disappear
                        Paul Ryan: Look, I'm a serious technocrat!
                        Joe Biden: White Working Class Midwest appeal Guy
                        Sarah Palin: relative unknown, energize the base conservative
                        John Edward: MAYBE picked as an attack dog?
                        Dick Cheney: He's the guy Dubya trusts
                        Joe Lieberman: ????
                        Kemp: ????
                        Dan Quayle: This guy was not picked to be the Attack Dog
                        Al Gore: Look, we're not super liberal! We're technocrats!


                        The equivalent would have been Mitt Romney picking, I don't know, Ted Cruz to be his running mate.
                        "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

                        Comment


                        • off the top of my head -- Kaine, Ryan, Palin (especially Palin), Cheney -- all acted as political attack dogs for their principal.

                          maybe not picked to BE an attack dog (Palin and Cheney excepted), but on the other hand, I don't think Harris was picked to be an attack dog either, tho she'll play the role and play it well.
                          There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
                            Well that didn't take long:

                            https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/08...gtype=Homepage

                            One day & the race-based attacks begin. This is going to get uglier.
                            As with surfgun's "TDS" thread: It's all they've got.
                            TwentyFiveFortyFive

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                              As with surfgun's "TDS" thread: It's all they've got.
                              Which he "added" to today....
                              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                              Mark Twain

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                                Which he "added" to today....
                                He's branching it out into the other threads too, gotta give him credit for that.
                                TwentyFiveFortyFive

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X