The US 2020 Presidential Election

[tantalus]

Where Harris has appeal is among the less self absorbed elements of the Democratic voter base. While black voters won't just vote for someone on skin colour, the symbolism here is significant. Similarly other potential non-white voters may feel well disposed, though I doubt she will do anything much to attract Hispanic voters that can't be better done by Dems from that background. I am not sure what the historical turnout of the somewhat misleading 'Asian-American' demographic is, but having someone called Kamala on the ticket won't hurt outreach to Americans from subcontinental backgrounds. Just as important, this signals to white moderates that a) the party is indeed committed to diversity; and b) It hasn't given itself over to the more radical wing. Harris has experience at the national level, so she won't be seen as a risk.

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Covering gender and ethnicity protects biden from those sorts of attacks. It doesnt hurt that corporate america and wall street appear comfortable with her. All he needs to do is avoid obvious blunders and stay alive. Solid strategy. As you said, people on the progressive left have no choice but to turn up and vote against trump.

[DOR]

Sen. Harris

Before the lies and whisper campaigns really get started, let's lay down a marker for Kamala Harris.

According to Wikipedia, she supports healthcare reform, legalized cannabis, a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, the DREAM Act, a ban on assault weapons, and progressive tax reform. She opposed trying juvenile defendants in Superior Court, opposes the death penalty, and opposes “three strikes” sentencing for non-violent crimes. She increased the felony conviction rate in San Francisco from 50% to 74% in her first term as DA, and then turned her department's attention more toward environmental crimes, political corruption.

She prosecuted more people for marijuana crimes than her predecessor, but fewer went to jail for simple possession. Gun-related crimes, however, got much tougher bail terms and jail time. She has a long track record of working to curb inherent bias and police misconduct at both the city and state level.

As State AG, she used California's economic clout to bully the nation's five largest lenders into backing down from aggressive mortgage foreclosure practices, and helped pass the Homeowner Bill of Rights. Harris also prosecuted for-profit colleges for false advertising and deceptive marketing; and Southern California Edison for corruption.

Quotes:
“It's not progressive to be soft on crime.”
“Leadership isn't about being perfect. Leadership means taking responsibility.”
“If you carry an illegal gun in the city of San Francisco and your case is brought to my office, you are going to spend time in jail. Period.”


A fair observation would be that the policy positions described above are highly popular with the American public.
You know, the kind that would be held by those middle-of-the-roaders called Democrats.

[Bigfella]

Covering gender and ethnicity protects biden from those sorts of attacks. It doesnt hurt that corporate america and wall street appear comfortable with her. All he needs to do is avoid obvious blunders and stay alive. Solid strategy. As you said, people on the progressive left have no choice but to turn up and vote against trump.

They have the same choice they had in 2016. Some of them threw a tantrum then and didn't vote for Clinton. I think that is a lot less likely now, but that assumes rational and adult behaviour from people who didn't see the need to try to stop Trump. I can't safely predict how such people might behave.

[Bigfella]

Bad right now or bad forever?

I struggle to work out what is the best thing to have for tea tonight, so 'forever' is a bit too far in the future for me. Bad enough right now that it shuoldn't be done. It is one of those ideas that sounds wonderfully elegant in the abstract, but is 'law of unintended consequences' on steroids.

[tantalus]

They have the same choice they had in 2016. Some of them threw a tantrum then and didn't vote for Clinton. I think that is a lot less likely now, but that assumes rational and adult behaviour from people who didn't see the need to try to stop Trump. I can't safely predict how such people might behave.

People feel energised and when that option is gone they lose their passion. Some of the would be voters who don't turn up fall in love with a vision of the world, in some ways its something too admire but I agree its important to remain practical.

On the other hand we often seem to hold the most contempt for people who are closest to our views but still different. Call me paranoid but sometimes I feel the left do this more, its definitely the luxury of the modern westerener.

I struggle to work out what is the best thing to have for tea tonight, so 'forever' is a bit too far in the future for me. Bad enough right now that it shuoldn't be done. It is one of those ideas that sounds wonderfully elegant in the abstract, but is 'law of unintended consequences' on steroids.

Its smart to stay flexible, especially for tea.

[Bigfella]

People feel energised and when that option is gone they lose their passion. Some of the would be voters who don't turn up fall in love with a vision of the world, in some ways its something too admire but I agree its important to remain practical.

On the other hand we often seem to hold the most contempt for people who are closest to our views but still different. Call me paranoid but sometimes I feel the left do this more, its definitely the luxury of the modern westerener.

The tendency waxes & wanes across the political spectrum. Right now in the US both sides have fanatics punishing those politically close to them for the 5% difference. In 2016 GOP voters did a better job of focussing on the main game - getting the Presidency. I suspect that if Trump goes there will be infighitng in the GOP that makes what is happening on the left look like a playground slap fight.

Its smart to stay flexible, especially for tea.

Right now I am under stage 4 COVID lockdown along with the rest of Melbourne. That means I can leave the house for about 1 hour a day. Tea is one of the highlights of my day, so I try to surprise myself once in a while. :-)

[astralis]

BF,

I suspect that if Trump goes there will be infighitng in the GOP that makes what is happening on the left look like a playground slap fight.

I used to have hope for this but I really don't think so anymore.

even if Trump is defeated in an enormous landslide, there's no real opposing pole in the GOP that can capitalize on Trump's lowered standing to re-take the leadership reins. Larry Hogan, bless his heart, is trying, but he's not going to get anywhere. the base will not tolerate any more "Mitt Romney" types.

the enormous inclination will be to blame Trump's loss on the man himself, and nominate someone whom advocates Trumpism without mindlessly pissing off everyone he/she talks to. Don Jr is sitting in the wings...

[DOR]

The tendency waxes & wanes across the political spectrum. Right now in the US both sides have fanatics punishing those politically close to them for the 5% difference. In 2016 GOP voters did a better job of focussing on the main game - getting the Presidency. I suspect that if Trump goes there will be infighitng in the GOP that makes what is happening on the left look like a playground slap fight.




Right now I am under stage 4 COVID lockdown along with the rest of Melbourne. That means I can leave the house for about 1 hour a day. Tea is one of the highlights of my day, so I try to surprise myself once in a while. :-)

Next time you're crawling the walls, desperate for something -- anything! -- that will break the monotony, try this ... but only as a last resort:
Tea before milk.

Game changer.

[TopHatter]

the enormous inclination will be to blame Trump's loss on the man himself, and nominate someone whom advocates Trumpism without mindlessly pissing off everyone he/she talks to. Don Jr is sitting in the wings...

Trump's mentally-stunted spawn won't be able to do what Daddy does (and they know it)

[Officer of Engineers]

Right now I am under stage 4 COVID lockdown along with the rest of Melbourne. That means I can leave the house for about 1 hour a day.

Damned. We sufferred worst than you and we're not this bad even during the worst of it. Social distancing. No gathering bigger than 3. Face mask/shield (though you are exempt if you say you have a condition - with zero proof needed) in all indoor public places.

BTW, we break all these rules when any of my neighbours need help. Calving season and stacking hay don't care about COVID-19. When you rely on sunlight to get things done, you don't have time to sanitize everything the farmer's wife is bringing you to eat. Masks? They clogged up real fast when stacking bay. Wet bandannas is the only thing that keeps things tolerable.

Tea is one of the highlights of my day, so I try to surprise myself once in a while. :-)

Scotch. After the first finger, you wouldn't care if it's new or not.

Next time you're crawling the walls, desperate for something -- anything! -- that will break the monotony, try this ... but only as a last resort:
Tea before milk.

Game changer.

You ... You ... You BRIT!!!!!

[DOR]

Damned. We sufferred worst than you and we're not this bad even during the worst of it. Social distancing. No gathering bigger than 3. Face mask/shield (though you are exempt if you say you have a condition - with zero proof needed) in all indoor public places.

BTW, we break all these rules when any of my neighbours need help. Calving season and stacking hay don't care about COVID-19. When you rely on sunlight to get things done, you don't have time to sanitize everything the farmer's wife is bringing you to eat. Masks? They clogged up real fast when stacking bay. Wet bandannas is the only thing that keeps things tolerable.

Scotch. After the first finger, you wouldn't care if it's new or not.

You ... You ... You BRIT!!!!!

Watch it, Canuck.

[DOR]

Trump admits he's refusing to fund the US Postal Service to sabotage mail-in voting


Grace Panetta, Business Insider (https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...-voting-2020-8)

President Donald Trump told Fox Business on Thursday morning that he would block additional funding and election assistance for the US Postal Service to sabotage mail-in voting.

On Wednesday and Thursday, Trump said he would not sign off on any relief bill that includes emergency federal funds for the USPS and more money to process election-related mail.

"They want $25 billion — billion — for the post office. Now they need that money in order to have the post office work so it can take all of these millions and millions of ballots," Trump said on Thursday, adding, "But if they don't get those two items, that means you can't have universal mail-in voting."

[Albany Rifles]

Scotch. After the first finger, you wouldn't care if it's new or not.

Colonel, this is the most intelligent thing you have ever written on the WAB....and you have written a crap ton of smart stuff!

[tantalus]

BF,



I used to have hope for this but I really don't think so anymore.

even if Trump is defeated in an enormous landslide, there's no real opposing pole in the GOP that can capitalize on Trump's lowered standing to re-take the leadership reins. Larry Hogan, bless his heart, is trying, but he's not going to get anywhere. the base will not tolerate any more "Mitt Romney" types.

the enormous inclination will be to blame Trump's loss on the man himself, and nominate someone whom advocates Trumpism without mindlessly pissing off everyone he/she talks to. Don Jr is sitting in the wings...

Multiple defeats in the houses in back to back election cycles is what would probably move a party. If the GOP feel there only way to win is to double down on their base like 2016 then you have a bad incentive structure and political polarization will continue.

In the end breaking the bonds between corporate america and washington would serve the country well. If GOP politicans get their board positions and retirement pay offs what does it matter to them who occupies the white house...the whole system just tips along nicely for all involved. All the incentives are wrong.

Just to be clear I am an admirer of corporate amercia, efficient capital deployment and the innovation from american companies, but it would be better if they werent bonded at the hip with the american political system.

[GVChamp]

DOR,



not quite; she's definitely on the more liberal side of the Democratic spectrum.

but, the fact that so many Sanderistas hate her tends to obfuscate that.

in any case, I'm glad she got the pick over Susan Rice.

I don't think I ever got the case for Susan Rice. Between the two, at least Kamala is actually a politician. Also, while she may be on the liberal side:
1. Her "liberal" voting record is in part just an "Anti-Trump" voting record designed to position herself as the Anti-Trump candidate for 2020: See Kristen Gillibrand.
2. She is not as relatively progressive as Barbara Boxer was, so on net she is a "conservative" shift relative to what California was sending before.

Ultimately I think this is just about fundraising and having someone being an Attack Dog for the campaign, since Biden cannot attack Trump without sticking his foot in his mouth. Kamala's statewide electoral history is not an obvious knock-out and on a national stage she had only modest success. I think Mayor Pete, Klobuchar, Duckworth, and Cortez Masto are all better choices, for their own reasons.