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  • Originally posted by astralis View Post
    i'm not quite that pessimistic.
    After 2016, I have no reason to anything but.

    Originally posted by astralis View Post
    Sanders being the Dem nominee would likely mean the race would be a toss-up. with essentially any other candidate, the Dems have slightly better than even chance.
    I wish I had your optimism, but, see above.

    Originally posted by astralis View Post
    which shows just how much of a handicap Trump is working under-- given the economic fundamentals, any other standard GOP President would be absolutely wiping the floor with ANY opponent.
    Yep. He's got basically no margin for...anything.

    Originally posted by astralis View Post
    as it is, Dems will be crawling over broken glass to vote against Trump. the question is if Dems can get independents as well
    Oh there'll be plenty of independents and even some Republicans crawling over that broken glass as well. The question is, will there be enough of them. And will 3rd-party voters/protest voters learn anything from 2016?

    Originally posted by astralis View Post
    also should mention that Trump support outside his hardcore support is -very- brittle. any black swan event-- either an economic downturn or the equivalent of the Comey October surprise-- means a 2012-level major Dem victory.
    Also yep. It's a long time until November.
    "Donald Trump is the first seditious president in our history. He decided he would not abide by the election, the duly constituted, free election of Joe Biden as the president of the United States, and staged a coup to keep Biden from taking office." ~ Carl Bernstein

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    • Originally posted by astralis View Post
      as it is, Dems will be crawling over broken glass to vote against Trump. the question is if Dems can get independents as well.
      I hope you are right, but I can easily imagine scenarios where Sanders supporters throw a tantrum, moderates can't bring themselves to vote for Sanders or people with an issue about homosexuality wouldn't vote for Buttigieg.

      also should mention that Trump support outside his hardcore support is -very- brittle. any black swan event-- either an economic downturn or the equivalent of the Comey October surprise-- means a 2012-level major Dem victory.
      Living in a country where black swans are indigenous I've never found that a useful phrase. ;-) (and yes, I know what it means)
      sigpic

      Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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      • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
        I'm geniuely having a hard time believing this. After all the shennigans Trump pulled, I'n thinking that even a Chimpanzee would be able to win. That the only slogan needed is "I'm not Trump."

        And you guys are telling me that Trump has more than an even chance of staying on as POTUS.
        You'd be surprised how many people are more than willing to throw all integrity, ethics and honor out the window to advance their narrow point of view over and against others. It is just that they have never had anyone who could even remotely stand a chance of getting into power until Trump. Now they will willing stand in line to get their 40 pieces of silver while he makes a farce out of the Constitution. Support the man over the Constitution. Hmm, I have a word for that and it has seven letters...

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        • Originally posted by astralis View Post
          i'm not quite that pessimistic.

          Sanders being the Dem nominee would likely mean the race would be a toss-up. with essentially any other candidate, the Dems have slightly better than even chance.

          which shows just how much of a handicap Trump is working under-- given the economic fundamentals, any other standard GOP President would be absolutely wiping the floor with ANY opponent.

          as it is, Dems will be crawling over broken glass to vote against Trump. the question is if Dems can get independents as well.

          also should mention that Trump support outside his hardcore support is -very- brittle. any black swan event-- either an economic downturn or the equivalent of the Comey October surprise-- means a 2012-level major Dem victory.
          I'm not counting on independents since I don't think there are that many independents. Supposedly that number is around 10-15% depending on the poll. I think it is more like 5-6% and the others are just being coy, evasive, or would like to think of themselves as independents while voting the same party all the time. So it is all going to revolve around who can get their base fired up and all out there to vote. If both do a bang up job there then Trump loses as his base is smaller than the Dem base. Why else would the Republicans constantly try to limit voting participation by voters who predominately lean Democratic.

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          • BF,

            I hope you are right, but I can easily imagine scenarios where Sanders supporters throw a tantrum, moderates can't bring themselves to vote for Sanders or people with an issue about homosexuality wouldn't vote for Buttigieg.
            if the GOP opponent was Romney or Rubio...yeah, I could see that. Sanders supporters are insufferable in that regards.

            but never fear, Trump will say or do something in the intervening time that will remind everyone and their mother why not voting is a Bad Idea.
            There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
              BF,



              if the GOP opponent was Romney or Rubio...yeah, I could see that. Sanders supporters are insufferable in that regards.

              but never fear, Trump will say or do something in the intervening time that will remind everyone and their mother why not voting is a Bad Idea.
              Again, I really hope you are right. Given some of the rhetoric about Bloomberg and their pathological hatred of the rich (even more than they hate anyone who has actually achieved anything) I'm still skeptical about what the Sandersistas might do if he is the Dem candidate.

              I'm hoping against hope that maybe Klobuchar can get up. Warren has the political sense of a smallish rock, Biden is reminding everyone why he fell over every other time he ran for President, and I still can't shake the feeling that enough people aren't ready for a gay President that Buttigieg can't win. Sanders is such a target rich environment that the GOP campaign writes itself.
              sigpic

              Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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              • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                BF,



                if the GOP opponent was Romney or Rubio...yeah, I could see that. Sanders supporters are insufferable in that regards.

                but never fear, Trump will say or do something in the intervening time that will remind everyone and their mother why not voting is a Bad Idea.
                Trump said all manner of nasty vomit inducing shit during the 2016 campaign and yet Hillary couldn't get the Black vote out and even lost some White voters who had voted for Obama.

                Since then Trump has continued to say (and do) reprehensible stuff all through his presidency and his support hasn't wavered.

                I don't know why Dems continue to believe that the next obnoxious utterance that comes out of his mouth, whatever it may be, will be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
                Last edited by Firestorm; 14 Feb 20,, 22:41.

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                • I always find it funny when Dem presidential candidates make promises to their supporters on the campaign trail. I understand that they kinda have to (otherwise what are thy supposed to do during the campaign?) but in the current hyper-partisan atmosphere, NONE of their promises will bear fruit unless they win the Senate.

                  And if they do win the Senate, then it doesn't matter if Trump wins or loses. Because he will be a lame duck for the entirety of his second term, if he lasts that long. Wining the Senate is far more important for Dems than winning the presidency. Ruth Bader Ginsburg has shown incredible resilience and strength to remain in office this long. But she won't be able to serve out another 4 year term. A GoP controlled senate voting on her successor is a nightmare for the Dems. Winning the Senate is a matter of life and death for liberal polity in the US. Presidency is secondary. Another 4 years of Moscow Mitch will be a disaster for them. More so than another 4 years of Trump.
                  Last edited by Firestorm; 14 Feb 20,, 22:40.

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                  • firestorm,

                    Trump said all manner of nasty vomit inducing shit during the 2016 campaign and yet Hillary couldn't get the Black vote out and even lost some White voters who had voted for Obama.

                    Since then Trump has continued to say (and do) reprehensible stuff all through his presidency and his support hasn't wavered.
                    the difference is that in 2016 Dems thought Trump was a clown and that HRC was gonna landslide the crap out of him.

                    now he's a sitting President with solid economic winds behind his back, and they've had 4 years of him actually -doing- stuff versus just saying it.

                    I always find it funny when Dem presidential candidates make promises to their supporters on the campaign trail. I understand that they kinda have to (otherwise what are thy supposed to do during the campaign?) but in the current hyper-partisan atmosphere, NONE of their promises will bear fruit unless they win the Senate.
                    not only that, but eliminate the legislative filibuster as well.

                    And if they do win the Senate, then it doesn't matter if Trump wins or loses. Because he will be a lame duck for the entirety of his second term, if he lasts that long. Wining the Senate is far more important for Dems than winning the presidency.
                    no, other way around.

                    if the Dems win the Presidency but not the Senate, then they can push through personnel changes and a few judges. the threat of the government shutting down will mean the Dems will get SOME small-ball policies.

                    if Trump wins again but Dems take the Senate, then Trump can still do personnel and executive orders and push through some of HIS small-ball policies.

                    Supreme Court will likely be deadlocked unless one side wins both. right now the Dems are already talking about counter-acting the Merrick Garland fiasco by restructuring the Court; if RBG goes under a Dem President with a GOP Senate, and the GOP tries playing games again, then you won't see just talk the next time the Dems do win the Senate.
                    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                      I'm geniuely having a hard time believing this. After all the shennigans Trump pulled, I'n thinking that even a Chimpanzee would be able to win. That the only slogan needed is "I'm not Trump."

                      And you guys are telling me that Trump has more than an even chance of staying on as POTUS.
                      There's no way on God's Green Earth I'm voting for a Democrat, and there are tens of millions more exactly like me, which is the reason Trump is always going to get 40-45% of the vote.

                      He can get a few more % because the economy is good and there are no wars. The Democrats could take that, except their candidates are weak and it appears they might have a hard time uniting the party. At this point, it is highly likely the Democratic convention will either be contested, or Bernie will win it outright, both of which are going to piss off a lot of Democrats.

                      The only two candidates who should have a respectable chance at this point are Warren or Klobuchar. They are actual Democrats who have actual experience. Instead you have an ambitious, pretentious empty Ivy suit who only has experience running a college town, a lifelong America-hating socialist who IS NOT A DEMOCRAT and has a following more toxic than Trump's, and a multi-billionaire Republican WHO IS NOT A DEMOCRAT that might basically buy the nomination because Democratic primary voters hate all the other candidates even more.

                      These primaries have basically become a joke, but....I'm not going to lie, it makes for AWESOME television. The GOP primaries are better because they don't play with kids gloves, but even these Dem ones are getting good as the candidates get more desperate.

                      I think people underestimate Bernie's chances, but Bernie has not faced a national general election. Americans as a whole generally favor Capitalism over Socialism. Democrats as a whole now favor Socialism over Capitalism. So Democratic candidates cannot hammer Bernie on his socialism. But Trump can. And when I say Americans as a whole favor Capitalism over socialism, I mean socialism is one of the biggest liabilities in American politics.
                      "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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                      • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                        if RBG goes under a Dem President with a GOP Senate, and the GOP tries playing games again, then you won't see just talk the next time the Dems do win the Senate.
                        That's the part that the Trump Party still hasn't caught onto: Whatever Trump is doing now, a Democrat President will eventually do the exact same thing to them down the road.
                        "Donald Trump is the first seditious president in our history. He decided he would not abide by the election, the duly constituted, free election of Joe Biden as the president of the United States, and staged a coup to keep Biden from taking office." ~ Carl Bernstein

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                        • Oh’ we get it.

                          Harry Reid set this stage.

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                          • Bloomberg will likely get Clinton'd in a dark alley, unless he chooses her as a running mate.

                            In which case, the inevitable will be pushed a few months into their term ;-)

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                            • The NASCAR dad, out reach in full effect. The Beast is to lap Daytona International Raceway.
                              https://www.foxnews.com/auto/trump-d...the-beast-limo

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                              • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                                That's the part that the Trump Party still hasn't caught onto: Whatever Trump is doing now, a Democrat President will eventually do the exact same thing to them down the road.
                                Garland was blocked by McConnell and the rest of the Senate GOP, not Trump. Similarly, it was the GOP Senate that filibustered for years, not Trump. The GOP-controlled House refused to take up the Senate's immigration bill, not Trump.

                                Also, Obama pulled a crapton of end-runs around Congress because the elected Congress wouldn't give him what he wanted, including the deal with Iran, trying to legalize millions of illegal immigrants, massive and expensive climate change reform, etc. It's why Trump has so easily stalled so much of it, whereas he couldn't just upend ACA since ACA is in law. And Obama was the ideological moderate in comparison to the next generation of Democrats, who already started radicalizing long before Trump was in the picture. Whatever is in that cake was baked in long before Trump came down that escalator, though Trump may have added some orange extract and a couple of nuts.
                                "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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