The US 2020 Presidential Election

[Double Edge]

Trump's doctor says the president already has antibodies. That might not mean he is cured with long-term immunity — it could just be his medication.


Always another side to the story....

Maybe i should have qualified that. We're clear its not long term immunity.

Short term. About a year. And this is subject to change as we learn more.

The word 'cure' is not yet sure.

Immunologists are quite adamant over some things though. They saw the limelight being hogged by the epidemologists and their models which turned out to be bunk. I remember one from Switzerland that insisted that asymptomatic spread was pure fiction. That some one with no symptoms could be a spreader. He reasoned if the person is asymptomatic they've already beaten the virus on their own. Hence cannot spread. But the test cannot distinguish that, dead virus RNA shows up positive.

If the body beat the virus once, the system has an idea how to beat it again. So any subsequent infection will be milder.

This depends on the virus not mutating to a point where the immune system gets beaten back.

How quickly does the virus mutate ? we're still learning.

I think the countries that only had a partial lockdown will weather it better than those that were strict.

Either you take the hit upfront or spread it out over time.

-- Who won the first presidential debate? Eight in 10 Biden supporters think he won, while 6 in 10 Trump supporters say the president won. Overall, voters think Biden won by a 44-29 percent margin, 11 percent say tie/no one, and 16 percent are unsure.

National polls show what we already know: A majority of Americans reject Trump. But it wasn't a majority of Americans that put Trump in the White House the last time.

That fewer Trump supporters think he won makes sense.

Guess i'm in the 11% because i expected Trump to do better at the debate.

[TopHatter]

Fox News Poll: Biden gains ground over Trump

A 70 percent majority believes our democracy is “in danger” in this election

Democratic candidate Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a 53-43 percent margin, in a Fox News national survey of likely voters conducted after a combative debate and the president testing positive for coronavirus. Biden’s 10-point advantage is up from a 5-point lead last month.



The incumbent faces a challenging landscape:

-- Voters think the stakes are high. A 70 percent majority believes our democracy is “in danger” in this election, including about 8 in 10 Biden supporters and 6 in 10 Trump supporters.



-- On coronavirus, most, 72 percent, favor requiring masks when people are outside their home, while the number who think the virus is under control is small (24 percent mostly/completely) -- and down from a month ago (30 percent). Almost twice as many voters prioritize limiting the spread of coronavirus over restarting the economy.

-- Most rate economic conditions negatively (65 percent only fair/poor).

Coronavirus and the economy are the two issues that matter most to voters in deciding their choice for president. The same number, 44 percent, say the pandemic will be the single most important factor as say the economy will be the top factor. That’s more than say the same about health care (34 percent), racism (26 percent), the Supreme Court and violent crime (25 percent each).

Biden leads Trump by 39 points among those saying coronavirus is the most important factor, while Trump is preferred among those saying the economy by 12.


Twice as many voters want to keep ObamaCare in place as want to repeal the health care law (64-32 percent), and voters who prioritize health care favor Biden by 32 points.

Those who say violent crime is the most important factor to their vote favor Trump by a single point, while voters who prioritize racism back Biden by 44.

A 58 percent majority thinks the way Trump talks about racial inequality is leading to an increase in violence, including 28 percent of those supporting him. For comparison, 38 percent believe Biden’s language incites violence, including 17 percent backing him.

On the Supreme Court, 54 percent don’t think a president should get to appoint someone to a lifetime position this close to the election, while 44 percent think it is the responsibility of current leaders to act to fill the vacancy created by Justice Ginsburg’s death. This is a reversal from 2016, in the wake of Justice Scalia’s death, when most felt it was the responsibility of current leaders to act by a 62-34 percent margin.

Views divide evenly over increasing the number of justices on the Supreme Court, with about one in five unsure.

Biden leads Trump by 5 points among those saying the high court is the most important factor in their vote. At the same time, half would vote to confirm Amy Coney Barrett. Nine in 10 Republicans favor her confirmation, while 8 in 10 Democrats oppose it. Support for Barrett’s confirmation is a touch better than the highest numbers Brett Kavanaugh received for his nomination and in line with the highest Neil Gorsuch received.



Voters say Biden is a strong leader by 5 points, while they think Trump is not by 4 points.

Among groups, Biden owes his lead mainly to support from women (+19 points), especially suburban women (+25 points), Hispanics (+43), and voters under age 35 (+43).

Trump is favored by Whites (+9 points), White women without a college degree (+10), White Catholics (+11), rural voters (+13), and White men without a college degree (+19).

In 2016, Trump won men by 11 points and those ages 65+ by 9, according to Pew Research Center validated voter data. The new survey finds Biden with a slight edge among seniors (+2 points) and men (+1).

Equal numbers of Biden (75 percent) and Trump (77 percent) backers are extremely committed to their candidate and extremely interested in the election (65 and 66 percent respectively).

Voters planning to cast a ballot by mail favor Biden by 41 points, while Trump leads by 11 points among those planning to vote in person.

Among registered voters:

-- More voters like Biden than Trump, and that’s increasingly true. Biden’s favorable ratings are net positive by 16 points (57 favorable vs. 41 unfavorable), while Trump’s are underwater by 10 (44-54). The president’s favorable is down 3 points from his record 47 percent in April. Since that time, Biden’s favorable is up 9 points (48 percent in April).



-- Views of Vice President Mike Pence are more negative than positive by 1 point (47 favorable vs. 48 unfavorable), while views of Kamala Harris are net positive by 13 (53-40).



-- An increasing number think neighbors support Trump. By an 11-point margin, more think their neighbors are for Trump than Biden. In August, that was a 5-point spread. Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News survey with Republican Daron Shaw, believes more voters thinking their neighbors are for Trump is due to, “a combination of 2016 PTSD and liberal anxiety.” More Democrats say their neighbors back Trump (22 percent) than Republicans think theirs support Biden (9 percent), and very liberals (34 percent) are nearly three times as likely as very conservatives (13 percent) to think others are voting for the competition.



-- Trump’s job rating mostly holds steady, as 47 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove. Last month, it was 48-51 percent. While approval of Trump has never hit 50 percent, it was 49-49 percent in April. He’s leaving votes on the table, as more voters approve of his job performance than are supporting him in the race against Biden.

-- A record 41 percent see the disruption Trump has brought to Washington as a good thing, up from 35 percent two years ago. Still, a majority of 52 percent sees it as a bad thing, including 10 percent of Republicans and 7 percent of Trump supporters.

-- Views on abortion remain divided: 53 percent think it should be legal all (31 percent) or most of the time (22 percent), while 45 percent say illegal all the time (9 percent) or except in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother (36 percent). Last June, it was 50-46 percent.

-- Views are more lopsided on Roe v. Wade. By a 61-28 percent margin, voters say the Supreme Court should let it stand. Most Democrats (69 percent) say abortion should be legal and want Roe to stand (76 percent). For Republicans, most (63 percent) think abortion should be illegal, yet they split on Roe, as 44 percent say it should be overturned, while 42 percent say let it stand.



-- Who won the first presidential debate? Eight in 10 Biden supporters think he won, while 6 in 10 Trump supporters say the president won. Overall, voters think Biden won by a 44-29 percent margin, 11 percent say tie/no one, and 16 percent are unsure.

Conducted October 3-6, 2020 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,107 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The survey includes results among 1,012 likely voters. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for both registered and likely voters.
________

National polls show what we already know: A majority of Americans reject Trump. But it wasn't a majority of Americans that put Trump in the White House the last time.

[TopHatter]

Trump's doctor says the president already has antibodies. That might not mean he is cured with long-term immunity — it could just be his medication.

White House physician Sean Conley reported that President Trump has "detectable levels" of coronavirus antibodies.

The president, who was diagnosed with COVID-19 Thursday, recently returned to the White House from Walter Reed Military Medical Center. According to Conley, Trump's blood tested positive for Ig antibodies — a type of protective protein that helps us fight off infection — on Monday.

That announcement left several experts scratching their heads. Typically, it takes the immune system between one and three weeks to make enough antibodies that can be detected in a lab. But a peek at Trump's treatment at Walter Reed may explain why he has antibodies just six days after testing positive for COVID-19.

In his report, Conley failed to mention that Trump recently took a single, 8 mg dose of an experimental antibody cocktail called REGN-COV2 from drug company Regeneron that's been shown to improve symptoms in non-hospitalized patients.

"This is a really wild thing," Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco, told Business Insider. "Most likely, it's a false positive because of the antibody cocktail he got on Friday."

The test 'likely' detected antibodies from the cocktail
President Donald Trump disembarks from the Marine One helicopter followed by White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows as he arrives at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center after the White House announced that he "will be working from the presidential offices at Walter Reed for the next few days" after testing positive for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Joshua Roberts/ReutersMore
A spokeswoman from Regeneron suggests Chin-Hong's assessment is on point.

Given the timing of the test, and the fact that Trump received an 8 mg dose — the higher of two doses from REGN-COV2's clinical trial by more than a factor of three (the other dose was 2.4 mg) — "it's likely" that the test is detecting antibodies from the Regeneron cocktail, company spokeswoman Hala Mirza, said in a statement Wednesday.

Most tests that look for immunoglobulin G (IgG), the most common antibody found in our blood, cannot distinguish between endogenous antibodies, meaning the ones the patient's immune system made, and antibodies "delivered by our therapy," Mirza added.

Antibodies show up between one and 3 weeks after a person gets infected, meaning Trump could still be infectious
Antibodies help the body identify invading pathogens, then mark them for destruction by aggressive white blood cells.

Some people develop them within the first week of getting sick, according to the CDC. But in other COVID-19 infections, Ig antibodies arise "within two to three weeks after illness onset."

Research suggests you should wait at least two weeks after the onset of COVID-19 symptoms before taking an antibody test.

"In medicine, we don't check for antibodies much more than two weeks after infection because they take some some time to develop," Chin-Hong said.

According to Conley, Trump's medical team detected his antibodies just four days after Trump's positive diagnosis on Thursday. Bloomberg News reported that a few aides think Trump might have been exhibiting symptoms a day earlier.

That means that Trump could still have an active coronavirus infection, since the virus's incubation period can be up to two weeks long.

"He should be wearing a mask," Chin-Hong said, adding: "You can have antibody detection and still be infectious. They're not mutually exclusive."

If the antibodies aren't from the drug cocktail, this could mean Trump's been sick for longer than a week
President Donald Trump poses for a White House photograph to show him working during his stay at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Bethesda, Md. Tia Dufour/The White House via Getty Images
If Trump's antibodies are, indeed, endogenous, that could suggest the president has been sick for longer than his diagnosis timeline indicates.

"It is possible that he was infected for longer than reported as there has not been complete clarity on when he developed symptoms and when he last tested negative," Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, told Business Insider via email.

That could be somewhat good news for those concerned about President Trump's health.

Typically, patients with severe COVID-19 take a turn for the worse between the 7- to 10-day window, which is likely why Trump's doctors said they were still "on guard" Monday.

But according to Chin-Hong, that downturn may have already happened for Trump when he went to the hospital over the weekend.

"If you go back in time, he could've had it two weeks ago from Monday," he said, adding, "that suggests this might now be the second phase of his disease, rather than the first."

Gandhi agreed: "The development of IgG antibodies is usually associated with a decrease in symptoms," she said, adding, "so, yes, this is a good sign for him in terms of hope for not having severe symptoms."

This doesn't necessarily mean Trump is immune
Even if Trump's antibodies are the real deal, and not from the Regeneron cocktail, that doesn't necessarily mean he has long-term coronavirus immunity.

With some diseases, like measles and hepatitis A, infection is a one-and-done deal. Once you get sick and recover, you're immune for life.

"For human coronaviruses, that's not the case," Florian Krammer, a vaccinologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, previously told Business Insider. "You can get repeatedly infected once your immunity goes down."
A young Detroit resident is tested for coronavirus antibodies on April 28, 2020. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
What's more, it's still unclear what level of antibodies a person needs to be considered immune.

With many better-studied viruses like measles, Krammer said, "you know how many antibodies you need to be protected."

But we don't have a specific number for the coronavirus.

Reports of coronavirus reinfections lend further credence to the idea that our immunity may be fleeting.

"We do not know how long immunity lasts or if patients can have full immunity from natural infection," Gandhi said.

That's why — even in light of this antibody news — Trump can't say he's now immune, she added.

The president alluded to his potential protection from the virus in a Twitter video Monday, saying: "Now I'm better and maybe I'm immune."
______________

Always another side to the story....

[Double Edge]

And how many has he infected so far? And how many have they infected?
You don't see it...Nor will you because the White House has refused to do contract tracing.

Well, that's the system then. Self isolation is voluntary. No imposition.

Those that would give up freedom for security deserve neither and all that jazz.

The man is living as he says.

They passed a rule here the other day if any one refuses to be tested they can be fined, jailed or both.

Won't happen in your country.

The man took off his mask and walked into the White House in close proximity to his staff.

Now say that again and ask yourself the likelihood of that happening.

Theoretically he's immune now.

I'll wait a week for him to recover.

[TopHatter]

How many does he have to infect to be a super spreader ? hundred at least

You see that happening. I don't

And how many has he infected so far? And how many have they infected?
You don't see it...Nor will you because the White House has refused to do contract tracing.

Maybe this no mask thing will change as a result.

The man took off his mask and walked into the White House in close proximity to his staff.

Now say that again and ask yourself the likelihood of that happening.

[Double Edge]

You...you think that he spends 24 hours a day at rallies, always over 30 feet from anyone?

Have you even glanced at the news for the past 5 days?

Yeah there's some saying it in an abstract sense because of his attitude and there's others counting how many got infected in his presence.

How many does he have to infect to be a super spreader ? hundred at least

You see that happening. I don't

Maybe this no mask thing will change as a result.

[TopHatter]

How is he a super spreader ? at the rallies which are outdoors he's over 30 feet away from any one.

You...you think that he spends 24 hours a day at rallies, always over 30 feet from anyone?

Have you even glanced at the news for the past 5 days?

[Double Edge]

He flouted every recommended precaution while "out there working with people", and in the process became a one-man super spreader.

I doubt you're going to see an uptick due to sympathy. The majority of Americans say that he brought this on himself....and dozens of others.

How is he a super spreader ? at the rallies which are outdoors he's over 30 feet away from any one.

Yes, that's been his pattern.

Likely as not, he'll recover, yeah. But like I said: He needs to recover pretty damn quick.

Give it ten days

[TopHatter]

The optics are bad. Downplaying the pandemic then getting sick brings it to the foreground. How well are you managing the crisis if you get sick yourself.

The other view is what he said, he's out there working with people. He wants people back at work and here he is setting an example.

If that's true then we can expect an uptick in approve due to sympathy.

He flouted every recommended precaution while "out there working with people", and in the process became a one-man super spreader.

I doubt you're going to see an uptick due to sympathy. The majority of Americans say that he brought this on himself....and dozens of others.

The biggest drop in approval index remains Sept 25 to Sept 28, -2 down to -11

I think -15 will decrease over the coming days.

How long does it take to improve ? only few days

Jul 10 - Jul 15 he goes from -15 to -4

Jul 15 - Jul 20 drops to -12

Jul 20 - Jul 22 up to -5

Jul 22 - Jul 29 back down to -13

Jul 29 - Aug 03 up to -1

and so on.....

Yes, that's been his pattern.

Likely as not, he'll recover, yeah. But like I said: He needs to recover pretty damn quick.

[Double Edge]

His overall Approval Index keeps dropping, I'm guessing due to his non-stop lying about, and downplaying of, COVID.

The optics are bad. Downplaying the pandemic then getting sick brings it to the foreground. How well are you managing the crisis if you get sick yourself.

The other view is what he said, he's out there working with people. He wants people back at work and here he is setting an example.

If that's true then we can expect an uptick in approve due to sympathy.

He's down to -15 as of today. His numbers haven't been this bad since early July (a relative eternity ago)

He needs to do his usual "pull out of the tailspin" maneuver pretty damn quick.

The biggest drop in approval index remains Sept 25 to Sept 28, -2 down to -11

I think -15 will decrease over the coming days.

How long does it take to improve ? only few days

Jul 10 - Jul 15 he goes from -15 to -4

Jul 15 - Jul 20 drops to -12

Jul 20 - Jul 22 up to -5

Jul 22 - Jul 29 back down to -13

Jul 29 - Aug 03 up to -1

and so on.....

Getting the timing right when people go to vote, approval index is not lower than -5

If its -10 - 15 then he's out


Another reason i think the first debate was a draw see

Sept 30 - Oct 1 -12 up -6

Oct 1 - Oct 2 back down to -12