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The US 2020 Presidential Election & Attempts To Overturn It

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  • Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
    So Biden seems to be leading in states where the Democrats actually lost some House seats. Overall, they have underperformed in the House and their situation in the Senate isn't any better than before the election. IMO this is evidence that a statistically significant number of people might have voted for Biden but also voted Republican for down-ballot races (or not voted at all).

    This could be because of their personal dislike/disgust for Trump as a person and a Presidential candidate. If that is True, another candidate like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio might have blown Biden away perhaps? Democrats have a big problem on their hands for the future either way.
    Not necessarily, I think Trump is unique in his ability to turn out certain kinds of voters (mainly white working class , but also minorities as seen in this election). He also generates strong emotions on both sides which party explains the high turnout.

    I doubt that any other Republican will be able to turn out his voters the same way.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by InExile View Post

      Not necessarily, I think Trump is unique in his ability to turn out certain kinds of voters (mainly white working class , but also minorities as seen in this election). He also generates strong emotions on both sides which party explains the high turnout.

      I doubt that any other Republican will be able to turn out his voters the same way.
      Why would Cruz or Rubio be less able to turn out minority voters?

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Firestorm View Post

        Why would Cruz or Rubio be less able to turn out minority voters?
        I think some voters are drawn to Trump due to his economic nationalism and anti-establishment rhetoric. A conventional Republican perceived as being friendly to big business might not motivate them sufficiently to turn out even if they lean conservative.

        Comment


        • Trump allies reportedly discussing who will have to break the news of his potential loss
          As former Vice President Joe Biden appears on the cusp of potentially winning the presidency, President Trump's allies are reportedly discussing how to tell him that he may have lost his re-election bid.

          No winner in the presidential race has been projected yet, but as Biden pulls ahead in Pennsylvania, CNN reports that those around Trump are discussing who might have a tough discussion with the president, who has baselessly claimed he is being cheated out of a victory.

          "People around Trump are working to identify who might be able to communicate to him the stark reality," CNN reports. "There has been talk of potentially Jared Kushner or Ivanka Trump, though their willingness to lead a difficult intervention wasn't clear."

          One way of doing so that has been discussed, CNN writes, is "framing potential conversations with Trump around the idea of preserving his brand for life after being president," and The New York Times also reports that Republicans are discussing how to bring up with Trump "what leaving quietly could mean for his family, his business and his own ability to remain in politics."

          But according to CNN, Trump has "given virtually no thought" to the idea that he might not win a second term, and that idea was "not discussed widely among his team." He also reportedly does not have a concession speech prepared.

          Trump has reportedly told people he does not intend to concede the race, and Axios' Jonathan Swan writes that "nobody I have spoken to on the campaign or in the White House believes that Trump would ever publicly acknowledge a loss, even long after the election is certified." The Times similarly reports that while some believe Trump could ultimately concede if a loss becomes clear, "he will most likely never publicly accept the result" of the election.
          __________


          “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

          Comment


          • Originally posted by InExile View Post

            I think some voters are drawn to Trump due to his economic nationalism and anti-establishment rhetoric. A conventional Republican perceived as being friendly to big business might not motivate them sufficiently to turn out even if they lean conservative.
            Nothing stops them from changing their rhetoric having learned lessons from Trump. The thing is, their huge support in minority communities and urban liberals is what is sustaining Democrats right now. If the Republicans can chip away at their minority support, they will be in serious trouble. Trump managed to do that in some areas despite being a racist clown.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
              Trump allies reportedly discussing who will have to break the news of his potential loss
              As former Vice President Joe Biden appears on the cusp of potentially winning the presidency, President Trump's allies are reportedly discussing how to tell him that he may have lost his re-election bid.

              No winner in the presidential race has been projected yet, but as Biden pulls ahead in Pennsylvania, CNN reports that those around Trump are discussing who might have a tough discussion with the president, who has baselessly claimed he is being cheated out of a victory.

              "People around Trump are working to identify who might be able to communicate to him the stark reality," CNN reports. "There has been talk of potentially Jared Kushner or Ivanka Trump, though their willingness to lead a difficult intervention wasn't clear."

              One way of doing so that has been discussed, CNN writes, is "framing potential conversations with Trump around the idea of preserving his brand for life after being president," and The New York Times also reports that Republicans are discussing how to bring up with Trump "what leaving quietly could mean for his family, his business and his own ability to remain in politics."

              But according to CNN, Trump has "given virtually no thought" to the idea that he might not win a second term, and that idea was "not discussed widely among his team." He also reportedly does not have a concession speech prepared.

              Trump has reportedly told people he does not intend to concede the race, and Axios' Jonathan Swan writes that "nobody I have spoken to on the campaign or in the White House believes that Trump would ever publicly acknowledge a loss, even long after the election is certified." The Times similarly reports that while some believe Trump could ultimately concede if a loss becomes clear, "he will most likely never publicly accept the result" of the election.
              __________

              Doesn't matter. Come 20 JAN 21 his term ends.
              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
              Mark Twain

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
                So Biden seems to be leading in states where the Democrats actually lost some House seats. Overall, they have underperformed in the House and their situation in the Senate isn't any better than before the election. IMO this is evidence that a statistically significant number of people might have voted for Biden but also voted Republican for down-ballot races (or not voted at all).
                Obviously a lot of split ticket voting went on. Now we know that no Trump supporter would ever split ticket vote. The same is true of dyed in the wool Democratic voters which leaves independents who would split their ticket down ballot in their local elections. I'm not sure yet how much the socialist tag on some House members hurt them but I'm sure it did. Same goes for any one who seemed to even give defund the police a passing nod. As I was telling GVC California is an interesting study. The state elects all Democrats and some quite progressive but a lot in the state gets dealt with via propositions good or bad. The key is to watch which get passed and which don't. If you pay close attention you would see the ones that pass are right down the middle while the edge propositions get nixed every time. So if the Democrat was perceived towards the far left edge the electorate (independents) pulled things back more to the center right.

                This could be because of their personal dislike/disgust for Trump as a person and a Presidential candidate. If that is True, another candidate like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio might have blown Biden away perhaps? Democrats have a big problem on their hands for the future either way.
                No Cruz and Rubio do not come even close to what Trump has. Trump has "Celebrity!" which no other candidate has had before. Trump is the Kardashian of the political world hands down and as we know lots of people are awed by celebrities. That type of awe is endemic around the world in many countries. However, for Trump, he would need to come through in order to keep some of those who were only awed a little bit and then got bored.

                The 2016 race reminds me of another race. The 2016 was between a celebrity and a boring technocrat. In 1960 we had a dashing JFK (the Sean Connery of politics) versus the boring Richard Nixon. That race was close but dashing won as did celebrity. The only thing we can never know is how JFK vs Goldwater would have turned out four years later as here.

                I have always gotten a kick out of how one could easily get elected to office in the Philippines by having been a popular actor. It would be slam dunk. Sadly, the same can be said of America and American voters.
                Last edited by tbm3fan; 06 Nov 20,, 18:14.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post

                  Doesn't matter. Come 20 JAN 21 his term ends.
                  Hell, just go on Fox News and give an interview about how you feel about the loss. I'm sure Trump will be watching. Besides we all could enjoy some more off the wall tweets after he sees that interview.

                  Comment


                  • More from the political experts at The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/)
                    2020 Close Contests Summary: Decision by 2% or less … thus far

                    It looks very much like the Libertarian Candidate Jo Jorgensen has swung the election for Joe Biden.


                    Nevada (6 EVs): VP Biden 49.45% vs. DJ Trump 48.48%. The 11,822 gap is almost covered by Lib Jorg (11,641) and “None of these candidates” (11,060), with Independent American Blankenship getting 2,595.
                    Wisconsin (10 EVs): VP Biden 49.58% vs. DJ Trump 48.94%. that's only 20,938 votes apart, and Lib Jorg polled 38,370, followed by two others with a combined 10,441.
                    Pennsylvania (20 EVs): VP Biden 49.48% vs. DJ Trump 49.38%, a gap of 6,742 that is largely due to Lib Jorg's 76,340 grab.
                    Georgia (16 EVs): VP Biden 49.40% vs. DJ Trump 49.37%, a gap of 1,587 votes with Lib Jorg at 61,390.
                    North Carolina (15 EVs): DJ Trump 49.98% vs. VP Biden 48.57%. The 76,701 difference is larger than Libertarian Jorgensen (47,215), Green (11,825), Constitution (7,381) and “scattering” (12,940), but not if they all went the same direction (79,361)


                    In the Senate, no elections seem to have been swung by third party candidates:
                    Georgia Senate: Perdue (incumbent, GOP) 49.84% vs. Ossof (Dem) 47.85%
                    97,952 vote difference, with Libertarian Shane Hazel polling 113,788 votes
                    North Carolina Senate: Tillis (Incumbent, GOP) 48.73 vs. Cunninghamm (Dem) 46.94%.
                    96,707 vote differnece, with Libertarian Bray (167,968) out-gunning Constitution Party Hayes (66,668).
                    Michigan Senate: Peters (Incumbent, Dem) 49.86% vs. James (GOP) 48.26%.
                    The 87,447 vote difference doesn't include U.S. Taxpayers candidate Willis (50,323), Green Party candidate Squier (39,048), or Natural Law man Dern (13,035).



                    House-side, ...
                    Nevada House 03 was swung Democratic: Kelley (Incumbent, Dem) 48.36% vs Rodimer (GOP), 46.56%, and the 6,380 vote difference came from Libertarian Brown (9,439) and Independent American Bridges (8,559) providing equal opportunity disruption.

                    Iowa House 03 is another win for the Democrats, courtesy of the Libertarian Party: Axne (Incumbent, Dem) 49% vs. Young (GOP) 47.57%, a 6,397 vote difference out-shined by Libertarian Holder (15,344)

                    New York House 03 … Maybe, can't be sure: Devolder-Santos (GOP) 47.21% vs. Suozzi (Incumbent, Dem) 45.76%3
                    That's a 4,230 vote difference and the next largest category is “scattering” (blank, void, write-in) at 19,045, which is a bit embarrassing for Libertarian Rabin (1,500).

                    Texas House 24, an open seat: Van Duyne (GOP) 48.82% vs. Valenzuela (Dem) 47.45%.
                    The 4,643 vote gap is courtesy of Libertarian Hamilton (5,583), Independent Kuzmich (4,179) and Independent Bauer (2,871).

                    Utah House 04: Ownes (GOP) 48.03% vs. McAdams (Incumbent, Dem) 47.12%, with the 2,520 vote difference overshadowed by Libertarian (8,339) and United Utah (5,080) candidates.

                    Iowa House 02, an open seat: Miller-Meeks (GOP) 50.05%, vs. Hart (Dem) 49.95%, and no spoilers between the 354 vote difference.

                    California House 48: Steel (GOP) 50.67% vs. Rouda (Incumbent, Dem) 49.33%. The 4,774 vote difference is pure: no third candidates recorded (yet).

                    California House 39: Kim (GOP) 50.43% vs. Cisneros (Incumbent, Dem) 49.57%, a 2,497 vote gap with no spoilers in sight.California House 25: Garcia (Incumbent, GOP) 50.05% vs. Smith (Dem) 49.95%, and just 265 tiny votes between them with no spoilers around to take the, *ahem* credit.

                    Illinois House 14: Oberweis (GOP) 50.14% vs. Underwood (Incumbent, Dem) 49.86), just 1,078 lazy nonvoters apart and no third party to mess it up.

                    South Carolina House 01: Mace (GOP) 50.59% vs. Cunningham (Incumbent, Dem) 49.41%. Another pure one, with a 4,993 vote difference.

                    Virginia House 07: Spanberger (Incumbent, Dem) 50.57% vs. Freitas (GOP) 49.43%. A gap of 5,063 votes and no spoilers on the horizon.

                    Pennsylvania House 17: Lamb (Incumbent, Dem) 50.52% vs. Parnell (GOP) 49.48%, a 4,287 gap and no other candidates recorded.

                    Updates should be here: https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G20/CloseContests.phtml




                    Trust me?
                    I'm an economist!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Firestorm View Post

                      Nothing stops them from changing their rhetoric having learned lessons from Trump. The thing is, their huge support in minority communities and urban liberals is what is sustaining Democrats right now. If the Republicans can chip away at their minority support, they will be in serious trouble. Trump managed to do that in some areas despite being a racist clown.
                      It’s hard to predict the future, but I don’t think we are entering a period of Republican dominance comparable to after the civil war or even during the time of Ronald Reagan. I think the next decade will continue to see a balance between the two parties and extremely close elections.

                      While Democrats might struggle to hold on to white suburban voters and some minority voters this will likely be balanced somewhat by changing demographics. And I also think many democratic voters may not so easily forget the Trump years and rush back to the arms of the GOP

                      Republicans have problems of their own. The chamber of commerce wing of the party might see this as an opportunity to take the party back from the Trumpists. They would probably control political contributions, Republicans were badly outmatched this cycle when it came to raising campaign contributions.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post

                        Obviously a lot of split ticket voting went on. Now we know that no Trump supporter would ever split ticket vote. The same is true of dyed in the wool Democratic voters which leaves independents who would split their ticket down ballot in their local elections. I'm not sure yet how much the socialist tag on some House members hurt them but I'm sure it did. Same goes for any one who seemed to even give defund the police a passing nod. As I was telling GVC California is an interesting study. The state elects all Democrats and some quite progressive but a lot in the state gets dealt with via propositions good or bad. The key is to watch which get passed and which don't. If you pay close attention you would see the ones that pass are right down the middle while the edge propositions get nixed every time. So if the Democrat was perceived towards the far left edge the electorate (independents) pulled things back more to the center right.
                        True, I am also talking about independents and voters whom the Dems had lost to Trump in 2016. At least some of them seem to have come back along with some of the new voters. But have they come back to Dems, or just to Biden because they despise Trump?


                        No Cruz and Rubio do not come even close to what Trump has. Trump has "Celebrity!" which no other candidate has had before. Trump is the Kardashian of the political world hands down and as we know lots of people are awed by celebrities. That type of awe is endemic around the world in many countries. However, for Trump, he would need to come through in order to keep some of those who were only awed a little bit and then got bored.
                        If it was Trump's celebrity that was carrying things for the Republicans, they would not be gaining seats in the House and holding in the Senate while Trump is on course to lose the presidential race. Looks to me like the other way around. Trump is perhaps dragging them down now. Not with their base but with the fence sitters who seem to be ok voting for them in Congressional races but don't seem to want to do so for Trump after seeing the train wreck of the last 4 years.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by InExile View Post

                          It’s hard to predict the future, but I don’t think we are entering a period of Republican dominance comparable to after the civil war or even during the time of Ronald Reagan. I think the next decade will continue to see a balance between the two parties and extremely close elections.

                          While Democrats might struggle to hold on to white suburban voters and some minority voters this will likely be balanced somewhat by changing demographics. And I also think many democratic voters may not so easily forget the Trump years and rush back to the arms of the GOP

                          Republicans have problems of their own. The chamber of commerce wing of the party might see this as an opportunity to take the party back from the Trumpists. They would probably control political contributions, Republicans were badly outmatched this cycle when it came to raising campaign contributions.
                          You assume this is 1992.It's not.The 2 sides hate each other.Just because some folks living in their ivory tower don't see it that way doesn't make it less true.The chamber of commerce Republicans,as you named them,are peanuts compared to Trump's base.Trump himself was always less important and his flaws were always known to everyone on the right.It's just that half of the nation views him as a lesser evil with a couple of qualities mixed in,compared to outright evil.Dems on their turn have nothing to tell on the other half of the nation,except ''racists and nazis''.Which is a dumber way of saying ''evil''.
                          What you will likely see is even greater radicalization and starting of calls for seccession,as far fetched as it may look right now.2020 is a preview,not the endgame.


                          Those who know don't speak
                          He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                            What you will likely see is even greater radicalization and starting of calls for seccession,as far fetched as it may look right now.2020 is a preview,not the endgame.
                            I'm afraid that you're correct. This was just the warm-up.
                            “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                            Comment


                            • The Lies from the Trump White House are Getting Desperate

                              The November 5 press conference was a new low point for the Office of the President as Trump made baseless claims about the state of the electoral race.
                              by BRIAN KAREM

                              NOVEMBER 6, 2020 2:54 PM
                              I was in the White House briefing room on Thursday.

                              I was stunned.

                              I have covered every president since Ronald Reagan. I’ve occasionally been lied to or misled by every one of them.

                              But no president ever sought to destroy our Democracy with their lies until Donald Trump. None ever showed the American people such callous disrespect until Donald Trump walked into the White House briefing room on November 5, 2020.

                              Trump told the nation that mail-in votes were fraudulent. He had no proof of this.

                              He said he was leading the race. He wasn’t.

                              He wanted to stop counting votes in states where he led and continue counting votes in states where he trailed.

                              He gave a prepared speech filled with lies that disparaged every volunteer and worker at every precinct in the United States and dismissed how our democracy counts votes—without even appearing to know how it is done.

                              I watched as press secretary Kayleigh McEnany nodded along in agreement with her boss. It was disgraceful.

                              What comes next? Having watched this man up close for four years, I do not believe that Donald Trump will concede his loss. There might be a phone call to Joe Biden from someone at the Trump campaign. Maybe Mike Pence will deliver some remarks in lieu of a concession speech.

                              And if I had to guess, I would be surprised if Trump shows up for the inauguration.

                              His future is bleak. He may or may not be indicted. He’s staring at a debt of close to a billion dollars and that won’t go away.

                              Trumpism as a movement is not dead. And that will have to be addressed by the Republican party—not to mention the rest of America—going forward. But we should all understand one important thing: Trump’s defeat is a good outcome—an unambiguously good outcome—for America.


                              Those who expected an easy defeat of Trump underestimated the power of his personality and the problems which drove many to his cause.

                              It was always going to be a tough fight because the soul of America was at stake and people like Stephen Miller, once they get ahold of power, are always loathe to let it go. And Trump is the same. He called the White House a shit hole when he first moved in, but he has grown to love both the power and its trappings.

                              The mood in the White House has sunk each day since Fox News called Arizona for Joe Biden. I watched Kellyanne Conway bolt out of the Palm Room doors leading to the East Room, where the Trump faithful gathered late Tuesday night to celebrate Trump’s re-election.

                              Conway was talking on the phone, trying to deal with the fallout of the Arizona results. Like dictators everywhere, the Trump people could not believe that he’d lost a state full of “his people.”

                              By Wednesday morning, the numbed looks on staffers’ faces made it apparent that Trump was losing more than Arizona. There were a few souls putting on a brave face, but for most it was slowly sinking in that Trump was staring at the abyss.

                              He will challenge everything he can in court. He will get Lindsay Graham to bow and scrape and shill for him. He will put Corey Lewandowski on a megaphone outside of every precinct, whore house, outhouse and chicken house in the country. But there has been no evidence of widespread voter fraud. And as Trump now stands metaphorically naked before the American people, fewer will follow the lesser imps who remain.

                              Donald Trump defiled the office of the presidency and his November 5 remarks should go down as the lowest point for any chief executive at any time in American history.

                              But he will soon be on his way and the soul of America is still intact. The people of the United States showed that. The poll workers in precincts across the country showed us the system is sound and people from all political parties and persuasions can work together.

                              The American soul is strong. Democracy is messy and working together and treating each other with respect is alive and well. Poll workers dedicated to the American dream proved that this week. We only need to excise the malignancy of Donald Trump to encourage people to work together once again.

                              It will be done because Donald Trump is done.

                              As Donald Trump walked away from us last night I asked him why he continued to lie to the American people and why was he so delusional. He flinched, but didn’t answer, and held on to a column as he rounded the corner and disappeared into the bowels of the White House.

                              It may be the last time I get to ask him a question as president.
                              ____________

                              The only question now is, how much more of a circus shit show will Trump perform between now and January 20th?

                              I think we'll see a major eruption when a major network or news service like AP and especially Fox News declare Biden the winner.
                              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                              Comment


                              • TH,if even a fraction of the acusations of election fraud turn true and can be proven as such,the situation is fvcked.Is way worse than a Trump victory.What soul is intact,no idea.
                                Those who know don't speak
                                He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                                Comment

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