The US 2020 Presidential Election

[DOR]

DE,
I very, very specifically answered your comment about farmers' voting.
You seem to be stuck on the notion that there is, and must be, only one reason why someone votes the way they do.
That is not the case.
Recognize that simple fact, and move on.

[Albany Rifles]

He could take PA again, given how Biden is on the defensive on fracking and PA is a fracking state.

Repeatedly Biden has to clarify he won't come after the frackers.



Same way implies CA going red. If CA is going red, Trump wins all 50 hands down.

I'm not saying that.

What the commentator said is don't be surprised if he scores higher than expected in CA.

Purple not red

Well let's look at what the power lobbyist group in PA says about Biden's plan and fracking...

https://electrek.co/2020/08/11/where...nds-on-energy/

Bottomline is more jobs in PA are tied to renewable energy than to fracking. 3/4s of the states population lived in urban areas of suburbia and not the country.

Biden is for transition away from carbon based, not a hard stop.

As for farmers....depends on where and what type. So much of the pain felt by the trade war has been buffered not by new markets but by cash payments to offset their losses. Yet Biden has a narrow lead in Iowa as of the end of last week.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/21/u...den-trump.html

I am not saying anything is a lock....or that Trump cannot be reelected...but I do see it as unlikely.

But I think you are misreading much of what some of the impacts of the underlying issues are all about here.

[astralis]

DE,

What the commentator said is don't be surprised if he scores higher than expected in CA.

Purple not red

if Trump loses by 28 points instead of 30 points, I'm really not sure this counts as "purple".

but, regardless, I don't think that will be the case. most likely scenario is that Trump loses CA by an even larger margin than he did in '16.

[tbm3fan]

DE,



if Trump loses by 28 points instead of 30 points, I'm really not sure this counts as "purple".

but, regardless, I don't think that will be the case. most likely scenario is that Trump loses CA by an even larger margin than he did in '16.

His commentator (ie: whisperer) must be along similar lines as the one surfgun listens to. What else could it be?

[TopHatter]

Carl Bernstein Says GOP Senators Weighing Action If Trump Won't Step Down
Watergate journalist Carl Bernstein said Sunday that a handful of Republican senators are beginning to discuss what they’ll do President Donald Trump refuses to leave office if he’s defeated in the election.

Trump has refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses, and has repeatedly tried to undermine the integrity of the electoral process by claiming the only way he can lose is if the vote is rigged.

As many as 10 GOP senators are “talking with each other about how to restrain what they regard as an out-of-control” president who is “determined to do anything to hold on to office regardless of its legality.” Bernstein told CNN’s Ana Cabrera without naming anyone involved.

They are “terribly, terribly concerned about what they regard as the president’s unconstitutional and unthinkable acts to undermine the electoral process,” Bernstein added, calling Trump’s aggressive grip on power a “scorched earth” strategy.

“I think he’s been very strenuous about telling people around him that he intends to use every tool at his command to see that there is no way that the Democrats and Joe Biden can win this election,” Bernstein said. “The only way would be a landslide that would be...undeniable.”

He is “setting up an apparatus and a methodology in which he intends to prolong the count, to make it impossible, perhaps, for the Electoral College, when it’s supposed to meet, to reach a majority. That’s part of his strategy,” Bernstein added.

Former national security adviser John Bolton told Jake Tapper on CNN last week that Republicans will have to act to eject the president if he refuses to leave the White House.

“I think it’s very troubling [that Trump] has said, ‘I can’t lose unless there’s fraud,’” Bolton said. “Of course he can lose in an honest election.”

Bolton warned: “Let’s be clear: Trump will not leave graciously if he loses. Whether he carries it to the extreme, I don’t think we know.”

Republicans, Tapper noted, haven’t exactly been “profiles in courage” in response to Trump’s outrageous conduct.
______________

A clear cut landslide on November 3rd is the only way that this won't turn into an utter shit show.

Sure would be nice if these "terribly concerned" Republicans had acted months or years ago to curb Trump's illegality.

[Albany Rifles]

[SIZE=16px]______________

A clear cut landslide on November 3rd is the only way that this won't turn into an utter shit show.

Sure would be nice if these "terribly concerned" Republicans had acted months or years ago to curb Trump's illegality.

I wonder who the Barry Goldwater, Hugh Scott and John Rhodes will be...

[TopHatter]

I wonder who the Barry Goldwater, Hugh Scott and John Rhodes will be...

Great question. I assume it'll be McConnell, Thune and Grassley.

Assuming the landslide is big enough and early enough of course.

Pretty sure it was McConnell that told Trump that using his Doral resort for the G7 meeting would be a bridge too far...even for the GOP.

[astralis]

"as many as 10" -- that's pathetic.

during Watergate, there were 42 GOP Senators; after the smoking gun tape came out, Goldwater told Nixon that there were maybe 15 Senators who'd acquit him.

[TopHatter]

"as many as 10" -- that's pathetic.

during Watergate, there were 42 GOP Senators; after the smoking gun tape came out, Goldwater told Nixon that there were maybe 15 Senators who'd acquit him.

Let's face it, if there's even a shadow of a doubt about the outcome of the election, the number will be ZERO. They've already sacrificed their souls to Trump. There's no going back now.

[TopHatter]

More than 57 million Americans have already voted, suggesting a huge voter turnout for 2020. But it's not clear who that would favor.

More than 57 million Americans have already voted with more than a week to go.

The data comes from the US Elections Project which is run by Dr. Michael P. McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida.

It says that the number of votes cast already is already 41.7% of the total votes cast in 2016.

According to the Guardian, McDonald projects from those numbers that the total turnout in 2020 will be 65%. That level of participation would be the highest since 1908.

However — what a surge in turnout could mean for the end result is not obvious.

In a recent analysis, McDonald argued that the early voting trends favor Democratic nominee Joe Biden, because his campaign can stop spending resources on supporters who already turn out, and focus on those who are yet to vote.

The Trump campaign, he argued, is at a disadvantage because it still has many more potential voters to absorb its attention.

However, it is impossible to know how meaningful that difference will prove. Past analyses of the impact of increased turnout suggested that it could go either way.

New York Magazine this week suggested that increased turnout would likely strongly favor Biden it it helps younger voters get to the polls.

Citing a new poll from Axios and SurveyMonkey-Tableau, it noted that voters under 35 in all but five states — and every swing state — favor Biden over Trump.

However, the New York Times earlier this year noted that white working-class supporters — most of whom favor Trump — have also historically not voted in high numbers.

If more of those voters make it to the polls — especially in target areas like Pennsylvania — it could help the Republicans most.
___________

Most current number as of 4:00pm EST is 62,014,329, or 45% of the 2016 turnout.

The website cited is a fantastic resource

[Bigfella]

Let's face it, if there's even a shadow of a doubt about the outcome of the election, the number will be ZERO. They've already sacrificed their souls to Trump. There's no going back now.

I often wonder what would happen if any given GOP member of Congress or Trump supporter happened across Trump violently beating a 10 year old black girl. Based on current behaviour I reckon no more than 20% try to stop him, while the rest decide whether or not to just pretend they didn't see it or work out why it is OK for Trump to do it.

That 20% might bump up above 30% if the girl is white. The complete & utter amorality I see on display daily from Trump supportes & apologists is genuinely nauseating. GOP elected officials largely personify this. They are divided between being the party of Trump & the party of Lindsay Graham - Profiles in Cowardice.

[surfgun]

So Bigfella, has got a case of diarrhea? Such dribble.
Beating of 10 yr old girls!? Seriously, WTF!

[TopHatter]

So Bigfella, has got a case of diarrhea? Such dribble.
Beating of 10 yr old girls!? Seriously, WTF!

Oh were you under the mistaken impression that there's even a shred of morality in Cult45?

As you said: Seriously, WTF!

Remember what your cult leader said (and argued all the way up to the Supreme Court):

"You know what else they say about my people? The polls, they say I have the most loyal people. Did you ever see that? Where I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters, okay? It’s like incredible"

So yeah, beating a 10 year old girl probably wouldn't faze them.

That's the cult that you belong to surfgun. Just fucking own it for once.

[surfgun]

Don’t forget to take your prescriptions!

[Double Edge]

OK, his total approve is 52% as of Oct 26

Has he peaked too early or can he add more until election day.

The first two months of his presidency show him in the mid to high fifties.

His highest rating since was 53% total approve.

He's close and in the right ball park