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Trump's Economy

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  • #91
    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
    That too is incorrect. The IRS doesn't have to bring him to court, Congress can impeach him for high crimes and misdemeanours. It's just a matter of bringing proof so blatant that even GOP whores protecting Trump are forced to stand aside and let justice prevail.
    I'm thinking #1 on the whore list would be Graham...


    • #92
      Impeachment. Since he denies that he is bound by any Congress subpoena that is the sole remaining remedy, though he will deny they have a jurisdiction for that too.


      • #93
        Keeping it real

        I doubt there's anyone around here who doesn't know what I think of this current bunch of GOPers. But, some on my side seem to think that using their style of misinformation is acceptable, and I strongly disagree.

        There's a story going around that the reason the unemployment rate is so low is that the Trump Administration is counting as employed anyone who worked as little as one hour a week.

        Here's my response:

        One hour = employed?
        My God! Will they stoop so low as to use exactly the same measure as the Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon, Johnson, Kennedy, Eisenhower, Truman and Roosevelt administrations? All the way back to 1940?!?
        Have these people no shame?
        Trust me?
        I'm an economist!


        • #94
          A fine jobs report.


          • #95
            Insights for people who seriously think about policy.

            The Trump Tax Reform, As Seen in the U.S. Balance of Payments Data
            By Brad Setser, Council on Foreign Relations July 3, 2019.


            The international side of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was a real reform, not just a straight-forward cut in the rate. It ended deferral, and shifted to a (mostly) territorial tax system. Yet, judging from the balance of payments data, it didn't get rid of the incentive for firms to offshore profits to low-tax jurisdictions. The global minimum is too low—and there are too many incentives to shift tangible assets abroad.

            Knowledge in the hands of the best, not the rest: The decline of US business dynamism
            Ufuk Akcigit, Sina T. Ates, VoxEU, Centre for Economic Policy Research, 04 July 2019


            The US economy has witnessed a number of striking trends that indicate rising market concentration and a slowdown in business dynamism in recent decades. This column uses a micro-founded model of endogenous firm dynamics to show that a decline in the intensity of knowledge diffusion from frontier firms to laggard ones plays a key role in the observed shifts. It presents new evidence on higher concentration of patenting in the hands of firms with the largest stock that corroborates declining knowledge diffusion in the economy.

            US Multinationals Expand their Foreign-based Research and Development
            Timothy Taylor, July 5, 2019


            "For decades, US multinational corporations (MNCs) conducted nearly all their research and development (R&D) within the United States. Their focus on R&D at home helped establish the United States as the unrivaled leader of innovation and technology advances in the world economy. Since the late 1990s, however, the amount of R&D conducted overseas by US MNCs has grown nearly fourfold and its geographic distribution has expanded from a few advanced industrial countries (such as Germany, Japan, and Canada) to many parts of the developing world ..."
            Trust me?
            I'm an economist!


            • #96
              DJ over 27,000
              NASDAQ over 8,000
              S&P hovering at 2,999.9


              • #97
                Q-2 2019: +2.3% YoY, +2.1 Q-Q

                The US economy grew 2.3% in the second quarter, as compared to April-June 2018 and when adjusted for price changes. That is the slowest pace in two years, and comes amid revisions dating back to 2014. Private consumption bumped up just over one-half of a percentage point, from 2.51% in Q-1 to 2.57% in the latest figure. Capital investment, which has been widely discussed in recent weeks because of the expected boost from the Trump tax cuts, slowed a full percentage point drop, to 4.1%.

                As this is a thread about the real economy, any reference to the stock market should probably be classified under jokes.
                Trust me?
                I'm an economist!


                • #98
                  As most reports of late the number will be revised up.


                  • #99
                    Manipulate the data

                    According to the neutral Bank for International Settlements, the Chinese renminbi’s real effective exchange rate – that’s the one that matters, not the tourist or interbank rate – is 22.9% stronger than it was in 2010. The US dollar is 16.4% stronger, which makes the Rmb 5.6% stronger than the dollar in the first half of 2019.

                    By way of comparison, the Euro is 6.1% weaker than in 2010 (-19.3% vis-à-vis the dollar) and the Japanese yen is 24% weaker than in 2010 and 34.7% down on the dollar.

                    The US Federal Reserve Board provides all the data any presidential advisor needs to prove that the recent charges of currency manipulation against charges are nothing more than political posturing. If anyone over there understands anything about economics, have a look here:

                    What that will show it that the countries with dramatically undervalued currencies are Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Turkey. Well down this list are Japan and Mexico.

                    The ones with over-valued exchange rates are Iceland, Hong Kong, China, and the USA.
                    Trust me?
                    I'm an economist!


                    • Source:
                      Stocks wilt as bond markets flash recession warnings

                      LONDON (Reuters) - Stock markets slumped on Wednesday as Germany’s economy went into reverse, fuelling fears of global recession and slamming the brakes on a rally for equities after Washington delayed tariffs on some Chinese imports.

                      Europe’s biggest economy shrank 0.1% in the second quarter as the trade war and weak demand dragged on German manufacturers. The euro zone as a whole barely grew in the same quarter, with the 19-country bloc adding 0.2% - a slowdown from the first three months of the year.

                      The Euro STOXX 600 fell 1%. Markets in London .FTSE, Frankfurt .GDAXI and Paris FCHI lost between 0.8% and 1.5%. Wall Street futures gauges were also indicating losses of around 0.7%.

                      The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS, which tracks shares in 47 countries, lost 0.2%, surrendering by late morning its earlier gains. Bond markets, too, were flashing warning signals of recession.

                      The gap between U.S. two-year and 10-year Treasury yields - a metric closely watched for signs of a slowdown - inverted for the first time since 2007, raising the specter of a global recession.

                      “The telling thing is that there is a delayed effect - traditionally you see a one-to-two-year lag before a recession. You could see it next year,” said Neil Wilson, chief markets analyst at

                      “The fact that 2s10s has also gone this way is a massive red warning light for the U.S. economy,” he said, referring to the inverted yield of U.S. Treasuries.

                      The gap between UK two- and 10-year bonds also inverted for the first time in over a decade, while U.S. 30-year bonds and German 10-year bunds fell to record lows.

                      The German figures - along with data showing the slowest growth for Chinese industrial output in 17 years that indicated faltering demand in the world’s second-largest economy - knocked the wind out the sails for stocks and gave rise to the angst over a slowdown.

                      Equity investors on Wall Street and in Asia had cheered earlier when U.S. President Donald Trump pushed back to December a Sept. 1 deadline for new tariffs on remaining Chinese imports.

                      The S&P 500 .SPX, which had fallen 1% on Monday, rose 1.5% overnight, buoying Asian stocks outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS by 0.5%. Benchmarks in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Seoul all mirrored the surge in U.S. stocks.

                      But the momentum ebbed in Europe, as optimism faded that Trump’s move meant tensions were easing and Germany’s slowdown showed the damage already done by the trade war.

                      “The trade war and the dispute between U.S. and China has already had an impact - especially when you look at countries most sensitive to global trade like Germany and even Italy,” said Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities in Paris.

                      In another sign the trade dispute is hampering growth, China’s industrial output slowed more than expected in July. Its 4.8% growth was the lowest since February 2002.
                      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."


                      • All these recession fears are really starting to drag me down. On the plus side, this recovery has been damned good to me, and food processing isn't recession-prone, so at least I am in a decent spot.

                        Realllllllyyyy hoping we can avert this with some aggressive stimulus.
                        "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck


                        • well, if a recession does happen, i sure will look forward to all the temporary Republican converts to Keynesianism...:-)
                          There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov


                          • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                            well, if a recession does happen, i sure will look forward to all the temporary Republican converts to Keynesianism...:-)
                            I just blew a snot bubble...
                            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                            Mark Twain


                            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                              well, if a recession does happen, i sure will look forward to all the temporary Republican converts to Keynesianism...:-)
                              Well, you see, that's not artificially low rates, that's just good ol' capitalism!
                              "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck


                              • The stable genius seems to love shooting Americans in the foot...and the wallet.

                                How Iran could threaten Trump’s reelection

                                I wonder how many of Trump's Kool-aid drinkers will support him with a gallon of gas goes well north of $3.50? I wonder if Iran could possibly be aware of that little detail?
                                "Donald Trump and his supporters and allies are a clear and present danger to American democracy" ~ Judge J. Michael Luttig