2017 American Political Scene

[Parihaka]

lol, pretty sure i didn't say "from my personal experiences at work, the polls are right, Clinton will win in a landslide and that all conservatives are racist", but hey, enjoy hitting that strawman.

Okay, professional opinion then. When I opined that Obama's 'pivot to Asia' meant increased hostilities and that NZ should assume a more neutral stance you were outraged. How is the Pivot to Asia going?

[astralis]

pretty decent, in my book. and that -is- my professional opinion, as that's precisely what i work on every day.

in fact, the worst thing that happened to it was Trump closing down TPP.

[snapper]

All US and intelligence agencies agreed Saddam Hussein was developing weapons of mass destruction.
All US and intelligence agencies agreed that the Gulf of Tonkin incident was an attack by Vietnam on US forces.
Brennan's CIA didn't hack Senate computers.

Etcetera etcetera.

I can only speak for the Iraqi case in relation to the British case where I have met some of the people involved in the original report and they were not happy at all with "sexed up" report that was finally was released to make the case. But having said that if I had been in Bush or Blair's position at the time - or even contributing to the advice flow - I would have said "Can you afford to take the chance he is isn't lying this time?" and my answer would have been "No". Fact is he was developing chemical agents again.

[antimony]

All US intelligence and security agencies agree that Moscow tried to interfere in the election in Trumps favour. Why have they consistently lied about all their Muscovite contacts? This is NOT a conspiracy these are facts from Manafort to Flynn to Tillerson. What was Lavrov even doing in the Oval Office? Why has Trump compromised an Israeli asset in the field? Stop squealing "Globalist conspiracy" and answer the damn questions - because the Trump administration cannot except to say it all 'fake news'. And by the way if you think being a 'globalist' is an insult the first globalists were the British who advocated free trade against the continental Europeans - most notably Napoleon and his 'Continental System'. I am not afraid of free trade and a global market - it enriches all.

As someone on TV said (don't remember who), P90X does not work the backbone.

[astralis]

basically, pari's argument is the populist argument: if so-called "experts" were wrong before, how can we be sure they won't be wrong in the future? why should their experiences/knowledge/etc be worth any more than our own?

yes, and doctors misdiagnose hundreds of patients a year, but i don't think you'll be doing yourself any favors if you try to self-medicate for your cancer at home, either.

[snapper]

As someone on TV said (don't remember who), P90X does not work the backbone.

What??? I do not know what P90X or it's relevance to a persons spine has here. I apologise but totally lost what you are referring to or it's meaning. As far as Muscovite tactics and methods go - and the threat they have and openly pose - yes I do claim some 'expertise'. I joined this forum during the Georgian invasion... I have learned far more since and was one of a few 'Cassandras' for a long time on Putin having actually read the files and done the research on the whole thing and met many of those involved who still survived including Litvinenko and Berezovsky (who was also murdered imv). I know the modus operandi back to front and I am telling you this whole Trump - Moscow business stinks to hell; Trump is trying to hide his collusion to subvert the democratic process and belongs in jail. Nor am I liberal but a conservative but the reason perhaps why astralis and I agree on this is that we are both (though in different ways) civil servants who's duty it is act in accordance with the law not for the good of our boss but for the good of the people.

[Parihaka]

basically, pari's argument is the populist argument: if so-called "experts" were wrong before, how can we be sure they won't be wrong in the future? why should their experiences/knowledge/etc be worth any more than our own?

yes, and doctors misdiagnose hundreds of patients a year, but i don't think you'll be doing yourself any favors if you try to self-medicate for your cancer at home, either.

Well, no. My argument is that previous falsehoods by your intelligence agencies coupled with their current hyper-politicised attacks against the Trump prior to and since his election means that these agencies are at best compromised.
To use your analogy, these specific doctors are compromised by their repeated failures and so their opinions are suspect: instead you should choose another doctor with a better track record.

It may be simply that WAPO is inventing its unnamed sources, god knows they've done enough of that already as I've highlighted. Either way, anything coming from Washington has to be viewed with extreme caution.

[Parihaka]

pretty decent, in my book. and that -is- my professional opinion, as that's precisely what i work on every day.

in fact, the worst thing that happened to it was Trump closing down TPP.

So you're happy with a policy that has made China far more aggressive. Thanks.

[Parihaka]

Fact is he was developing chemical agents again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_a..._and_incidents

[Parihaka]

On a side note, news organizations are seeing a rise in readership and profits thanks to intense controversy over Trump.

Ironically, yes they are. Reinforcing peoples beliefs is big business.

[astralis]

So you're happy with a policy that has made China far more aggressive. Thanks.

lol, this is probably better discussed in another thread, but suffice it to say here that i disagree with the idea that the re-balance "made China far more aggressive".

the root cause is a doubling of GDP in six years' time (2009-2015) combined with the ascension of a leader that centralized power in a way unprecedented since Deng Xiaoping.

there's a reason why China's neighbors are seeking out the US to balance against China, instead of viewing US policy as overly aggressive and stepping aside.

[antimony]

What??? I do not know what P90X or it's relevance to a persons spine has here. I apologise but totally lost what you are referring to or it's meaning. As far as Muscovite tactics and methods go - and the threat they have and openly pose - yes I do claim some 'expertise'. I joined this forum during the Georgian invasion... I have learned far more since and was one of a few 'Cassandras' for a long time on Putin having actually read the files and done the research on the whole thing and met many of those involved who still survived including Litvinenko and Berezovsky (who was also murdered imv). I know the modus operandi back to front and I am telling you this whole Trump - Moscow business stinks to hell; Trump is trying to hide his collusion to subvert the democratic process and belongs in jail. Nor am I liberal but a conservative but the reason perhaps why astralis and I agree on this is that we are both (though in different ways) civil servants who's duty it is act in accordance with the law not for the good of our boss but for the good of the people.

http://time.com/3445032/paul-ryan-al...r-his-closeup/

It is an exercise routine which ensures that Mr. Speaker does not ever need Healthcare

[Parihaka]

lol, this is probably better discussed in another thread, but suffice it to say here that i disagree with the idea that the re-balance "made China far more aggressive".

the root cause is a doubling of GDP in six years' time (2009-2015) combined with the ascension of a leader that centralized power in a way unprecedented since Deng Xiaoping.

there's a reason why China's neighbors are seeking out the US to balance against China, instead of viewing US policy as overly aggressive and stepping aside.

That's not what we're reading outside Wa(po)shington.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/.../#.WR0FIGiGNck
https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s...ing_Ratner.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...hina-ascendant
http://foreignaffairsreview.co.uk/20...ertain-future/

The failure of the TPP specifically places China, already more militarily aggressive because of your posturing, in prime position to embed economic ties throughout the region. This is not a bad thing in itself but obviously the US feels threatened by this.

[astralis]

wow, your evidence of "what we're reading outside of Washington" is...a bunch of random googled op-ed articles, two of which are written by Americans. lol.

look, i can google too:

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/...mportant-ever/

https://www.csis.org/analysis/pacnet...mas-pivot-asia

[zraver]

Well, no. My argument is that previous falsehoods by your intelligence agencies coupled with their current hyper-politicised attacks against the Trump prior to and since his election means that these agencies are at best compromised.
To use your analogy, these specific doctors are compromised by their repeated failures and so their opinions are suspect: instead you should choose another doctor with a better track record.

It may be simply that WAPO is inventing its unnamed sources, god knows they've done enough of that already as I've highlighted. Either way, anything coming from Washington has to be viewed with extreme caution.

If Bezos can keep Trump under attack via the WaPo he can claim its retaliation if the DoJ goes after Amazon with an Anti-Trust case. Nothing the WaPo publishes should be regarded as anything but a legal move by Bezo to try and ward off DoJ action against him.