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The 2016 US General Election

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  • Originally posted by GVChamp View Post
    Obama didn't need to appeal to moderates. He didn't win independents in 2012.
    Wasn't talking about 2012, I said 2008. He won 2012 because the GOP handed him the election on a silver platter. (Look for a redux this time as well)

    Originally posted by GVChamp View Post
    He won in 2008 because he turned out the liberal vote.
    No doubt that the liberal vote turned out, but Obama picked up moderates and independents plenty in 2008. Certainly more than McCain did.

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    Originally posted by GVChamp View Post
    CNN is reporting huge lines at Republican lines. Among some pretty white collar type districts. If those people are turning out for Trump, it's already over, the nomination is going to Trump and Trump is going to destroy anyone who Democrat who runs (unless George Washington comes back and runs as a Democrat)
    People are...sorta turning out for Trump Empty chairs at Trump rally: Is it the weather, or something else?. I've never been entirely convinced that Trump has the numbers he's claiming.
    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

    Comment


    • My point is that Obama didn't need to turn out the independents, and in 2012 he didn't. The analogue is that Trump doesn't necessarily need to win independents either, if he can drive enough turnout on the Republican side, and if the Democrats are depressed because Obama isn't running.



      EDIT: Looks like that extreme Republican turnout is going for Cruz and Rubio, which is REALLY surprising. A lot of people flocking to the Republican side to vote for anyone but Trump, looks like.
      Last edited by GVChamp; 02 Feb 16,, 04:18.
      "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

      Comment


      • Originally posted by GVChamp View Post
        EDIT: Looks like that extreme Republican turnout is going for Cruz and Rubio, which is REALLY surprising. A lot of people flocking to the Republican side to vote for anyone but Trump, looks like.
        Not to sound smug (whom am I kidding??) but I figured this was going to happen. Count on a Dem victory gents, it's inevitable. And unless Hilary is indicted, I'm going to call the election for her.
        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

        Comment


        • Originally posted by DOR View Post
          And, note that only one party has anyone who is a full 90° off center, i.e., bat-shit crazy. Oh, and The Trumpet is South? Not clear what that means.
          Means he is off the typically accepted political axis, the x axis, and occupies his own, the y axis.

          Comment


          • Trump out-performed expectations. The Republican vote was massively higher than expected and Trump defended his vote-share of 25% (which is what 538 projected him at). The Republicans have nearly 50% first-time caucus goers, and Trump took 30% of those, which was the plurality. (20% Rubio, 20% Cruz, 10% Carson).

            Trump performs better among more moderate voters, apparently.


            We'll see when we actually get some better results. The big question is Democratic caucus turnout: it looks a lot less energized from 2008 and 2012. That's a DISASTER for Democrats if it projects overall weakness in the general, and essentially anyone but Cruz (yes, including Trump), would probably win.

            Compare the map in Iowa in 2012. Romney rocks population zones and Santorum rocks the rural area:
            http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.co...aucus/results/

            But look at Trump. Trump is EVERYWHERE!
            http://graphics.latimes.com/election-2016-iowa-results/
            Dubuque? Romney killed it there...800 votes compared to 600 for Paul and 600 for Santorum.

            But establishment Rubio lost! Within a hair's breath, but still, lost.

            Story count? Romney led Santorum 1098 to 835, 26.2% to 19.9% (Ron Paul was #2).
            Trump? Down by 8%, definitely, in massively higher turnout. Cruz is at #3.

            Trump got 10,000 more votes than Santorum, who won in 2012. If this were 2012? Trump just STEAMROLLED the whole party.

            Do not underestimate Trump. This was a much better performance than anyone expected, and there's a lot of life left in the campaign, and a lot of chances left to win.
            Last edited by GVChamp; 02 Feb 16,, 06:04.
            "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

            Comment


            • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
              Not to sound smug (whom am I kidding??) but I figured this was going to happen. Count on a Dem victory gents, it's inevitable. And unless Hilary is indicted, I'm going to call the election for her.
              If Rubio gets the nod he can take Hillary, provided the party isn't too badly damaged. I lean toward your prediction, but with caveats. The big story for me is that Rubio got almost as much of the vote as Trump, and not is a state you would expect to poll especially well for him. Cruz winning wasn't a huge surprise. I'm starting to warm to the theory that the Party is out to nobble Cruz before they worry about Trump, with Rubio as the beneficiary. Of course, that may not work, but it will be interesting to see if it plays out that way. Also interesting to see what impact dropouts have. Huckabee has gone, and I wouldn't be surprised if a few more went before NH.

              Didn't think Bernie would get this close, but he campaigned well in a state that fits his prime demographic better. He'll pick up NH, which means that reality won't really bite until Super Tuesday. So, we get another month of insufferable Sanders groupies acting like he has a chance. SIGH!
              sigpic

              Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

              Comment


              • Iowa Caucus Results

                How Many People Voted In The Iowa Caucus?
                2016 Saw A Record Turnout

                According to ABC News, more than 180,000 Republican Iowans voted in the first 2016 caucus, compared to the previous record of only 121,000 people in 2012.

                Early Tuesday morning, the Iowa Democratic Party announced that 171,109 Iowans participated in its caucuses. That's a fall from 2008, which saw 239,000 Iowans vote in the Democratic caucuses throughout the state. 2016, however, is a dramatic improvement to 2012, which saw numbers dwindle to 25,000.

                http://www.bustle.com/articles/13909...record-turnout
                .
                Percent of Vote (Delegates)
                Hillary Clinton = 50% (22)
                --- Bernie Sanders = 50% (21)
                ---Martin O’Malley = 1% (0)
                .

                Ted Cruz = 28% (8)
                --- Donald Trump =24% (7)
                --- Mario Rubio = 23% (7)
                --- Ben Carson = 9% (3)
                --- Rand Paul = 5% (1)
                Trust me?
                I'm an economist!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                  Not to sound smug (whom am I kidding??) but I figured this was going to happen. Count on a Dem victory gents, it's inevitable. And unless Hilary is indicted, I'm going to call the election for her.
                  I wouldn't be so sure about this. A Cruz Rubio ticket would be 100% Hispanic. Maybe Cruz would be too much of an asshole to form a ticket with Rubio, maybe not.

                  If he does, what do you think the average Hispanic voter is going to do on election day?

                  Comment


                  • Even if all Hispanics will go for Cruz/Rubio,Trump voters will stay at home.
                    Those who know don't speak
                    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                    Comment


                    • Rubio was only competitive in suburban regions won by Mitt Romney. He's not competitive outside those regions, and even then, he lost in places where Romney won, like Dubuque.

                      Dubuque went to Trump, and Trump finished strong in most of those suburban regions as well.

                      We'll see, especially as establishment candidates start dropping out.
                      "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                        Even if all Hispanics will go for Cruz/Rubio . . .
                        And they won't; I'd be surprised if even 75% of the Hispanics went for a Cruz/Rubio ticket. Cruz & Rubio are just a little too far to the right for a lot of Hispanic voters; the Republican party has done a good job at alienating (no pun intended) the Hispanic demographic through anti-immigrant rhetoric.
                        "There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge

                        Comment


                        • And they were correct to do so.The problem is they aren't doing it enough.

                          Still,the point is that Trump voters will stay at home.Nothing else worth voting for them.And that means a GOP loss.TBH,I sorta expect the GOP just to give the dems the elections,just like in France ''left'' and ''right'' allied themselves against FN.

                          Cannot change the status quo.
                          Last edited by Mihais; 02 Feb 16,, 17:33.
                          Those who know don't speak
                          He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                            And they were correct to do so.The problem is they aren't doing it enough.

                            Still,the point is that Trump voters will stay at home.Nothing else worth voting for them.And that means a GOP loss.TBH,I sorta expect the GOP just to give the dems the elections,just like in France ''left'' and ''right'' allied themselves against FN.

                            Cannot change the status quo.
                            In a historic first time type situation like this, large numbers of Hispanics will ultimately vote their ethnicity. You also forget that Rubio favored legalization. Hispanics will look at tat ticket and say Cruz/Rubio must really believe in Rubio's position in their heart of hearts, finally, even for ones who don't believe, are they going to vote agsins a Hispanic ticket? Add those three together you have a massive swing towards the republican side. Not as much as blacks turned out for Obama, but enough to upended the landscape.

                            as for the Donald voters, they will turn out AGAINST Hilabeast or the Berninator if they were conservative. if they were liberal leaning they'd stay home. the truly conservative base will turn our for Cruz and the moderates will turn out for Rubio. for the first time since Clinton I you will have a smart young energetic dual running for the White House.

                            of course all this depends on Cruz reigning in the inner a-hole.

                            Comment


                            • Hispanics are clustered in non-competitive states. Working-class whites against immigration are clustered in more competitive states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.

                              A lot of those states are getting a double-whammy because black vote turnout will be lower (probably).
                              "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

                              Comment


                              • ''Build the yuuuuge wall'' and legalization are mutually exclusive.The right is in full swing civil war.Fact is Donald started a movement.It may be a minority,it is hugely despised be the left and most of the GOP,but is there.
                                From this pov,there is no difference between Reps and Dems.
                                Those who know don't speak
                                He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                                Comment

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