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  • Originally posted by GVChamp View Post
    Demographics aren't destiny in terms of parties as the parties aren't fixed entities. They can and do redefine themselves, which is what they are supposed to.
    Parties are destined to have a demographic profile befitting their political positions and legislative accomplishments. I agree they evolve, or "redefine themselves", as you put it, but not always. The 19th Century Federalists and the Whigs didn't evolve. I suppose they were too hidebound and felt evolving would betray their values. On the other hand, the modern day Democratic and Republican parties have always been masters at redefining themselves, albeit slowly.

    Their evolution from the Civil War era till now is a good example. The fact that African Americans left the Republican party for the Democratic party during FDR's presidency in the 1930s attests to the heavy duty change the once pro-slavery Democratic Party went through to win them away from the Party of Lincoln that freed the slaves and got the 13th Amendment passed.

    Political coalitions and policy direction are a different story. You can see groups coming and predict their influence, at least to some extent, especially since they wax and wane in strength over multiple cycles.
    Sounds about right.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

    Comment


    • it is very true that demographics aren't destiny.

      but to ensure that your respective party is on the right side of demographic change requires an understanding of motivating factors and of the voters themselves. how you tailor the message, etc.

      Goldwater killed the idea of widespread black Republicanism by associating himself with "states' rights", which for him meant greater freedom from the federal government but for many blacks meant embracing racist state governments.

      similarly the collapse of Asian-American and Hispanic support throughout the 2000s, along with support from the young (hard to believe now, but 18-24 year old voters were equally for Bush and Gore). none of these demographics have shifted in any significant sense back to the Republicans...because Republicans aren't targeting them to any extent.

      Trump's victory was in essence a double-down of previous strategies. his record unpopularity-- at the start!-- may very well sully the GOP brand for a significant time to come, just like Dubya did for an entire generation of Millennials. he is now the defacto leader of the GOP, and his Congressional allies aren't notably trying to appeal to all of the groups mentioned in the GOP autopsy report from 2012, either.

      i expect the GOP will change to compete for these groups later; the issue is that their current base isn't really interested in it, and there will be aspects of victory disease mixed in now too. i don't think it's a real stretch to say that the GOP will continue to have significant problems with appealing to groups outside their own shrinking demographic base for some time to come.

      there was a very interesting New Yorker (long) interview with Obama regarding what comes next for Dems, etc. this bit stuck out to me.

      And Obama related the Party’s losses this year to previous setbacks—and recoveries. “Some of my staff are really young, so they don’t remember this,” Obama said. “They remember my speech from the Boston Convention, in 2004, because they uploaded it on YouTube or something, but they might have been fifteen when it happened. Well, that’s the election that John Kerry lost. George Bush was reŽlected. Tom Daschle, the Democratic leader in the Senate, was defeated. The Senate went Republican. The House was Republican. Me and Ken Salazar, of Colorado, were the only two Democrats nationally who won. It was a very similar period to where we are right now. Two years later, Democrats had won back the Senate; I think they had won back the House. And four years later I was the President of the United States."
      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

      Comment


      • Question?

        How do you know who voted whom? Isn't the voting secret?

        Is it a guesstimate or there is something else?
        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

        Comment


        • IMO, 2012 autopsy is and always will remain virtue-signaling. The ending conclusion the GOP Elite took is that they are doing everything pretty awesome and basically have just to drop that whole anti-illegal immigration thing (which they never really wanted to support anyways).

          Just disgusting progressivism infecting the GOP elite, and entirely wrong-headed. Remember, the GOP used to support the Equal Rights Amendment and Equal Pay nonsense, too, which totally seemed like the "right side of history" at the time. That didn't deliver electoral majorities. Moral Majority politics delivered electoral majorities, which would've been called exactly the wrong politics at the time.

          Trump jacked up his AA approval ratings with relatively little outreach and Rubio single-handedly increased approval ratings of the GOP just by virtue of looking Hispanic.
          "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

          Comment


          • Originally posted by DOR View Post
            Almost half?
            More like less than 20%.
            Second best result of the year.
            Almost half of those who bothered. Better?
            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
              it is very true that demographics aren't destiny.

              but to ensure that your respective party is on the right side of demographic change requires an understanding of motivating factors and of the voters themselves. how you tailor the message, etc.

              Goldwater killed the idea of widespread black Republicanism by associating himself with "states' rights", which for him meant greater freedom from the federal government but for many blacks meant embracing racist state governments.

              similarly the collapse of Asian-American and Hispanic support throughout the 2000s, along with support from the young (hard to believe now, but 18-24 year old voters were equally for Bush and Gore). none of these demographics have shifted in any significant sense back to the Republicans...because Republicans aren't targeting them to any extent.

              Trump's victory was in essence a double-down of previous strategies. his record unpopularity-- at the start!-- may very well sully the GOP brand for a significant time to come, just like Dubya did for an entire generation of Millennials. he is now the defacto leader of the GOP, and his Congressional allies aren't notably trying to appeal to all of the groups mentioned in the GOP autopsy report from 2012, either.

              i expect the GOP will change to compete for these groups later; the issue is that their current base isn't really interested in it, and there will be aspects of victory disease mixed in now too. i don't think it's a real stretch to say that the GOP will continue to have significant problems with appealing to groups outside their own shrinking demographic base for some time to come.

              there was a very interesting New Yorker (long) interview with Obama regarding what comes next for Dems, etc. this bit stuck out to me.
              hardly anyone can remember the last time dem was that bad. obama's dad wasnt even born yet.

              Comment


              • Has this thread come to the end of the line?

                Is it time to open a new thread covering, say, "Trump: The first 100 days"?

                Suggestions, anyone?
                To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

                Comment


                • Yes.

                  Comment


                  • How about "The last 30 days, The temper tantrums of Obama, who just doesn't give a shit anymore" as the thread title?


                    Obama Appoints Cop Killer Mumia Abu-Jamal’s Attorney To Civil Rights Commission

                    http://nation.foxnews.com/2016/12/16...hts-commission


                    Dershowitz: 'Appalling' Obama 'Stabbed Israel in Back' With UN Abstention

                    http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/12/2...el-settlements


                    Or it could be titled "Oabma shows true colors"
                    Last edited by YellowFever; 28 Dec 16,, 06:10.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by JAD_333 View Post
                      Has this thread come to the end of the line?

                      Is it time to open a new thread covering, say, "Trump: The first 100 days"?

                      Suggestions, anyone?
                      Well there was Merrill's Marauders, The Dirty Dozen and Hogan's Heros so why not Trump's Tweets since that is the way he is going to conduct business.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                        Well there was Merrill's Marauders, The Dirty Dozen and Hogan's Heros so why not Trump's Tweets since that is the way he is going to conduct business.
                        Only 12 days during 2016 he wasn't using exclamation mark. That's a lot of stress even without being POTUS
                        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by YellowFever View Post
                          How about "The last 30 days, The temper tantrums of Obama, who just doesn't give a shit anymore" as the thread title?


                          Obama Appoints Cop Killer Mumia Abu-Jamalís Attorney To Civil Rights Commission

                          http://nation.foxnews.com/2016/12/16...hts-commission


                          Dershowitz: 'Appalling' Obama 'Stabbed Israel in Back' With UN Abstention

                          http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/12/2...el-settlements


                          Or it could be titled "Oabma shows true colors"
                          Since when did an accused cop killer lose his right to be represented in court?
                          And, since when is a single court case more important than an entire career?
                          Trust me?
                          I'm an economist!

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                            Since when did an accused cop killer lose his right to be represented in court?
                            And, since when is a single court case more important than an entire career?
                            When that single court case has Debo Adegbile accusing the court system of racism to defend a vicious cop killer.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                              Only 12 days during 2016 he wasn't using exclamation mark. That's a lot of stress even without being POTUS
                              Doing my best to disregard the many inflammatory President O statements and roadblocks.Thought it was going to be a smooth transition - NOT!
                              Your right. Ah, a true professional - NOT!

                              Hey, look at that. These Trump impressions are easy!

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by JAD_333 View Post
                                Has this thread come to the end of the line?

                                Is it time to open a new thread covering, say, "Trump: The first 100 days"?

                                Suggestions, anyone?
                                Yup, beyond all expectation the Demo(graphic)crat Death Star has been destroyed, but the rebels are still fractured and disorganised and Darth Clinton and Obama Sidious still have many tricks up their sleeves.
                                I suggest calling it
                                Episode II:

                                The Empire Doubles Down.
                                Last edited by Parihaka; 28 Dec 16,, 21:28.
                                In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                                Leibniz

                                Comment

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