The 2016 US General Election

[JAD_333]

Sorry, that's still projected.
I should have been more clear.

And here I thought you couldn't subtract. ;-) The popular vote lead Clinton holds is indeed going up. In the past couple of days it went up by about 150,000 votes and now stands at 1,177,132.

[S2]

"...what if Calexit suceeds? For how long the Dems wont be in charge of the remaining 49 states?"

Succeeds? As in secession success? We fought a civil war over this once before. Ain't no state exiting our union. Those stupid fcuks in California would get bulldozed.

Then jack-slapped for gross stupidity.

[Doktor]

"...what if Calexit suceeds? For how long the Dems wont be in charge of the remaining 49 states?"

Succeeds? As in secession success? We fought a civil war over this once before. Ain't no state exiting our union. Those stupid fcuks in California would get bulldozed.

Then jack-slapped for gross stupidity.

Hey, if I told you last year Trump would win... It's a major what-if, but still bugles me

[TopHatter]

Hey, if I told you last year Trump would win... It's a major what-if, but still bugles me

Dok,
It's simply impossible. Trump getting elected, while a longshot to just about everybody (including me), was still within the realm of possibility, i.e. get enough votes and you will become President.

Secession is a completely different beast. There is no provision for a state to exit the Union. As S2 pointed out, we've been down this road before and after nearly a million dead, it was decided that secession is a no-go.

[Doktor]

Dok,
It's simply impossible. Trump getting elected, while a longshot to just about everybody (including me), was still within the realm of possibility, i.e. get enough votes and you will become President.

Secession is a completely different beast. There is no provision for a state to exit the Union. As S2 pointed out, we've been down this road before and after nearly a million dead, it was decided that secession is a no-go.

That brings me to my second issue, why the fuss and the tensions?

[JAD_333]

That brings me to my second issue, why the fuss and the tensions?

Dok, be more specific. Examples.

[Chunder]

I guess you missed my points there.

1. You don't get to jump the line. You have to wait 10 years to apply for citizenship. You get to stay but you get an orange card...in other words other than normal green card.

2. Also, you may have missed that we establish a date for when it goes into place. If you are here before that date, you fall into that category. After that date you are an illegal. But I believe in following this plan you greatly dis-incentivize illegals going forward.

Specifically: most farm work is seasonal & most of those jobs revolve around picking. It is by nature suited to casual labor that is prepared to work for less. Ironically the tourism market fills a decent void with young tourists (called backpackers) filling a substantial part of the void and low educated immigrants able to understand the language of a foreman.

Most raids by immigration are likely to be instigated by competition. (A contract supplying a supermarket or grocery chain is considered lucrative, and at the same time devastating if lost)

10 Years is rough but I guess at least it's a way. Working visa's here are designed to help out areas in need - I.E you can work on a farm, but it must be uninterrupted work for 3 years, and you must return home after those 3 years to be approved (The system is exploited by employers blackmailing workers unfortunately) It doesn't take into account the seasonal work either.

One major thing overlooked is comparatively speaking U.S Farming is already subsidized - and the use of illegal labor does actually have a cost. Not only does the labour in effect have no rights, society misses out from a taxation perspective. Naturalized contracting companies are more specialized, have equipment and finance available. You want to see two worlds colliding, go to a farm and watch a fat Citizen on a tractor while skinny people pick fruit introduce yourself, shake hands and feel them it says a lot.

Hard labor does have it's place - for kids to learn why it's important to have a study ethic, and to get the experience of being yelled at. As an illegal though... you have no real hope of progressing. You simply won't have the benefit that the citizen does. It's closer to the state of plantation slavery than of conscious choice and has the distinct effect of coddling you around your own ethnic group for obvious reasons.

[tbm3fan]

While you all argue about immigration about which probably nothing will happen in the end as I don't think Trump understands how incredibly tough it will be. That plus given his attention span, or lack of, he will move on to something else and then move to something else. Running a privately owned business you are the King but a government is a whole other matter. Given his obvious personality he will not stay focused on a problem for any length of time before moving on. People like him don't. Those around him may but they are not wired like he is.

I'm more concerned with the few things he would stay focused on which is his name as in his businesses. Saying his son and daughter will run his empire is not avoiding conflicts as they can talk nightly about decisions. Everyone knows who the Daddy is of those kids and they will react accordingly. Whitewater and the Clinton Foundation could pale in comparison.

So here is our first conflict which will have a direct impact on his hotel in Las Vegas involving working class people that just need opportunities.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/17/news...ute/index.html

[GVChamp]

You aren't the boss-man in a private company. Companies are massive eco-systems with turf wars, silos, warring parties, and reluctant staff that do not do what you want them to. You can fire people, sure (in some states, in some industries), but not without consequence.

Running a massive company as CEO is more like being captain of the Titanic except you aren't able to slow down and the crew doesn't follow your orders half the time.

The idea that we need illegal labor to run the country is mind-boggling. You're talking at most 5% of the labor force, and the least skilled 5%. You would have a better logical argument talking about how essential the Wal-Mart workers are and how they power America. Talk of Armageddon if they leave is extremely daft.

"Americans won't do this work": yeah, if they don't have to and if you don't pay enough. No point in talking about the supply side if you aren't going to talk about the demand-side. No American will make me a Ferrari for $10: clearly there is a massive market failure and we need more immigration!

[Parihaka]

You aren't the boss-man in a private company. Companies are massive eco-systems with turf wars, silos, warring parties, and reluctant staff that do not do what you want them to. You can fire people, sure (in some states, in some industries), but not without consequence.

Running a massive company as CEO is more like being captain of the Titanic except you aren't able to slow down and the crew doesn't follow your orders half the time.

The idea that we need illegal labor to run the country is mind-boggling. You're talking at most 5% of the labor force, and the least skilled 5%. You would have a better logical argument talking about how essential the Wal-Mart workers are and how they power America. Talk of Armageddon if they leave is extremely daft.

"Americans won't do this work": yeah, if they don't have to and if you don't pay enough. No point in talking about the supply side if you aren't going to talk about the demand-side. No American will make me a Ferrari for $10: clearly there is a massive market failure and we need more immigration!

And more importantly, to be successful you need to recruit and retain people you can trust, delegate to them, and reward and punish appropriately.

[JAD_333]

While you all argue about immigration about which probably nothing will happen in the end as I don't think Trump understands how incredibly tough it will be. That plus given his attention span, or lack of, he will move on to something else and then move to something else. Running a privately owned business you are the King but a government is a whole other matter. Given his obvious personality he will not stay focused on a problem for any length of time before moving on. People like him don't. Those around him may but they are not wired like he is.

Trump builds skyscrapers; so he knows how tough building the wall would be. I don't think his followers do, except those who build stuff. One concrete construction exec estimated that it would take 260,000 truckloads of concrete to build a 1000 mile wall 30-40 ft high. As you may know, one truck can carry about 10 yards of concrete or enough to build a small wall 1.5x3x20 ft. Also you have to add surveying, site prep, and re-bar, plus road building to access remote areas. And if that isn't enough, the USG will have pay landowners all along the route, and if some of those landowners refuse to sell, eminent domain actions will have to be filed. One thing no one has mentioned is access to the Rio Grande for water. The cost would be so high that Trump's ambitious infrastructure improvements for the rest of the country would go begging for funds.

I think Trump has known this all along, and knew he'd never build a wall. Already he's talking about using wire fences for sections. What we'll probably see is some wall built in heavy transit zones, wire for the rest, and a beefed up Border Patrol force. One thing he could so is slow-build the wall. He could also increase and expedite deportations to discourage crossings. We'll probably never stop the flow completely because for immigrants where there is a will there is a way.

Concerning Trump's attention span, it seems to me people are mistaken about that. Like a lot of people who grow and run big companies, he likes to cut to the chase, although in his case he can appear very rude in the process. Part of that is distinctive to NYC where everyone is in a hurry. Look at what he did with the Wollman Ice Rink in NYC. http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/fe...-candidacylman

[tbm3fan]

You aren't the boss-man in a private company. Companies are massive eco-systems with turf wars, silos, warring parties, and reluctant staff that do not do what you want them to. You can fire people, sure (in some states, in some industries), but not without consequence.

Running a massive company as CEO is more like being captain of the Titanic except you aren't able to slow down and the crew doesn't follow your orders half the time.

The idea that we need illegal labor to run the country is mind-boggling. You're talking at most 5% of the labor force, and the least skilled 5%. You would have a better logical argument talking about how essential the Wal-Mart workers are and how they power America. Talk of Armageddon if they leave is extremely daft.

"Americans won't do this work": yeah, if they don't have to and if you don't pay enough. No point in talking about the supply side if you aren't going to talk about the demand-side. No American will make me a Ferrari for $10: clearly there is a massive market failure and we need more immigration!

Trump is not a CEO of a large publicly traded company like GM of GE which have stock and stockholders. He is the CEO of a privately held company who doesn't have to answer or explain issues to anyone. Just like Koch Industries. So yes he gets to make all the decisions and rules as founding owner.

As for the rest I did say argue all you want. In the end nothing will really change and I myself would take that to the bank.

[tbm3fan]

Concerning Trump's attention span, it seems to me people are mistaken about that. Like a lot of people who grow and run big companies, he likes to cut to the chase, although in his case he can appear very rude in the process. Part of that is distinctive to NYC where everyone is in a hurry. Look at what he did with the Wollman Ice Rink in NYC. http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/fe...-candidacylman

While that maybe true of people who grow big companies there is still a trait many share. Not all but many. Einstein had it, Jobs had it, Ellison has it as did Gates , Mayer and Zuckerberg. It is useful for creativity but it has it's downsides and weak points. Those I listed liked to cut to the chase and could be brutally rude/nasty as in Jobs and Ellison. I understand Gates was pretty much like that when working. My comment about attention span was related to their tendency to always have their minds moving on to the next thing. Finish move quickly or not finish throw temper tantrum. I have no issue with a CEO like that yet a guy making world affecting decisions can be another matter. We will see once his administration starts and has time for all the personalities to make themselves be felt warts and all.

[JAD_333]

While that maybe true of people who grow big companies there is still a trait many share. Not all but many. Einstein had it, Jobs had it, Ellison has it as did Gates , Mayer and Zuckerberg. It is useful for creativity but it has it's downsides and weak points. Those I listed liked to cut to the chase and could be brutally rude/nasty as in Jobs and Ellison. I understand Gates was pretty much like that when working. My comment about attention span was related to their tendency to always have their minds moving on to the next thing. Finish move quickly or not finish throw temper tantrum. I have no issue with a CEO like that yet a guy making world affecting decisions can be another matter. We will see once his administration starts and has time for all the personalities to make themselves be felt warts and all.

Your point is well taken. We'll just have to wait and see how he does as president. I've read that he was a detail guy on his job sites, and could spot mistakes others missed. That takes attention. Maybe that's a hopeful sign. In the end it will be his policies and actions that we'll judge him on.

[Doktor]

Dok, be more specific. Examples.

Google is full of CalExit news, don't even go to FB. Frustration and tensions (especially in the comments sections) are high and the disappointment will be even greater.

I was not honest in the first question since articles like this pointing not one, but two options for it to succeed are many, so I wanted to see the reactions here.