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I wouldn't get my hopes up or jump out the window because of any single month report being good or not so good. The medium and long term trends give a much better indication.
Removing a single turd from the cesspool doesn't make any difference.
U6 number is more honest but even it does not account for people no longer attached to the labor force because they've given up. But I never expect you or any krugbot to post honest numbers.
Half a million people gave up.... Of the lucky ones who found jobs- 37,000 of them found only part time jobs. That is what passes for the American dream these days- dreaming of days gone by when being able to keep the light son was a given, not a goal. Mean while krugbots keep fiddling against a flame lit back drop or re-arranging deck chairs to get the best view what they claim is a rising economic tide, not a sinking ship. its so bad that illegal immigration is near zero. The ones here don't want amnesty, they want a bus ticket home....
Labour force participation is now back at 1978 levels but because people are not actually looking for jobs - they have given up or are living on the black economy which is tax free - they are not counted as 'unemployed'; a statistical misrepresentation of the truth that Goebbels would be proud of. Just a little more stimulus? Sure why not! It has proved to make the richest richer and the poorest poorer after all so that must work right?
As an isolated indicator, I wouldn't put too much stock in it until we see the next few reports. These numbers tend to bounce around. The trend is more important. DOR's chart shows that clearly.
To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato
We’ve been through this before (and probably will again): U-6 is not a measure of unemployment the way that most people understand the term. It doesn’t take into account demographic or educational adjustments.
snapper,
Labor force participation rate . . . see above.
In the end, these are only really useful in the context of highly sophisticated modeling. And, right-wing politically motivated talk shows.
DOR, and the unemployment number is not a real reflection of the state of the economy because it counts all non-farm non-seasonal the same. Regardless if they are part time or not. It also only counts those still attached in some way to the labor force, not those who have dropped out. The real headline should have been half a million give up hope.
We’ve been through this before (and probably will again): U-6 is not a measure of unemployment the way that most people understand the term. It doesn’t take into account demographic or educational adjustments.
snapper,
Labor force participation rate . . . see above.
In the end, these are only really useful in the context of highly sophisticated modeling. And, right-wing politically motivated talk shows.
Whereas not counting those who are not working as 'unemployed' is not a politically motivated way of cooking the books?
There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov
zraver
Some may think one man’s labor is more worthy of being counted than another; some may think mere working stiffs don’t deserve the same respect as those with “proper” jobs. I’m not one of those people, and from an economic statistics perspective, neither are unemployment figures.
The media and White House use the same unemployment figures used for decades. To do otherwise would simply invite accusations of manipulation.
More to the point, part-time and full-time work are specifically defined, and calculated over the history of the data. You may not like it, but the unemployment rate it coming down.
Get used to it.
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snapper,
Counting the same thing, in the same way, regardless of who is in office or which party is trying to wreck the economy for mere partisan gain is not the problem.
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astralis,
In order to facilitate sophisticated economic modeling, governments frequently release data sets that measure something similar, but not identical, to the more common measure. The confusion arises when people unfamiliar with the differences – or motivated to twist the facts to suit their particular political views – pretend that there is some sinister plot afoot.
The media and White House use the same unemployment figures used for decades. To do otherwise would simply invite accusations of manipulation.
Counting the same thing, in the same way, regardless of who is in office or which party is trying to wreck the economy for mere partisan gain is not the problem.
Can you say the same about measuring inflation?
That said, one month shows nothing and more to the point it still shows creation of jobs, so why the fuss?
No such thing as a good tax - Churchill
To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.
zraver
Some may think one man’s labor is more worthy of being counted than another; some may think mere working stiffs don’t deserve the same respect as those with “proper” jobs. I’m not one of those people, and from an economic statistics perspective, neither are unemployment figures.
The media and White House use the same unemployment figures used for decades. To do otherwise would simply invite accusations of manipulation.
More to the point, part-time and full-time work are specifically defined, and calculated over the history of the data. You may not like it, but the unemployment rate it coming down.
Get used to it.
The real un/under employment rate is above 13%. It is not 6.7%. 6x more people gave up on finding jobs that found one. of those who found one, half were part time. Thats the real story from those numbers, not a declining unemployment rate that isn't really declining.
Yes, I can say exactly the same about inflation. If you understand why economists find value in “core inflation,” which omits fuel and food; and you don’t head off on a tangent about “how can you measure inflation based on the assumption that people don’t have to eat or travel,” then using that highly specific measurement can be very useful.
Same for import prices, for example, or the domestic demand deflator. Each has its uses, and sometimes these measures get used for the wrong reasons.
One month shows nothing . . .
Couldn't agree more.
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zraver,
We can solve this very easily: call it U-6, and not unemployment. You won't get any arguments from me, and we'll all know exactly what you're talking about.
For the record, U-6 is higher than the unemployment rate, always has been and (by definition) always will be.
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