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Faked census to show higher employer data pre election 2012

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  • #16
    Debate the story and its implications strenuously, but desist from engaging in further personal attacks
    sigpic

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    • #17
      Originally posted by astralis View Post
      you know, you're not doing your credibility any wonders when you source from the New York Post and from Zerohedge.
      Very good old chap! One sentence to attack me and the paper... really I applaud. I wasn't aware that you didn't like the New York Post. I apologise.

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      • #18
        Seriously - have people not seen the prev warning?
        Linkeden:
        http://au.linkedin.com/pub/gary-fairlie/1/28a/2a2
        http://cofda.wordpress.com/

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        • #19
          Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
          Seriously - have people not seen the prev warning?
          I unreservedly apologise and hope others will do so too.

          There is a more serious and substantive matter here and that is the credibility of the US Administration. I am no 'Yank hater', quite the opposite. All the world and particularly 'the west' benefits from a strong prosperous and free US. The mismanaged Bush/Blair invasion of Iraq after non existent WMD was just the start of the dissemination of truth as practiced by this administration. From Bernanke's denial that were any bubbles in 2008 to Obama's dismal failure at 'stimulus' and now Janet "no bubbles here" Yellen the economy has gone to pot aided and abetted by rigged statistics. From an inflation/Consumer Price Index calculation that does not accept or count that 'consumers' eat food or buy fuel to a retrospective recalculation of GDP that amounts to a form of double accounting and now the question mark over jobs statistics where those who have given up looking for work are already no longer counted everything is done to delude the populace. The NSA which was supposedly busy looking for terrorists is actually busy monitoring innocent civilians in half the globe but Obama didn't know, the IRS targets those with a particular political point of view but nobody knew, Benghazi was a shock to the entire Administration when there were clear warnings, investigations into rigged metals markets - which anyone with half a brain can see - report "nothing to see here", people can held without trial ad infinitum... I mean the list goes on. Even when the Chinese call for the end of the $ as the world reserve people refuse to accept that maybe - just maybe - something is going very seriously wrong. Obama would not vote to raise the debt ceiling when Bush wanted it raised but when he wants it raised it's not increasing debt. He promises that the ACA won't force people to change doctors and plans and knowingly lied - at least these are things he knew about! It is about time that both the US Democrats and Republican stopped trying to score points from each other and recognised the real problems. Unless you stop deceiving yourselves you can never hope to address the real problems and the US will increasingly be viewed not as a beacon of liberty but of deception armed to the teeth with only selfish intent. For all our sakes stop lying to each other and to yourselves.

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          • #20
            :red:
            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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            • #21
              Deleted as per warnings
              Last edited by DOR; 21 Nov 13,, 03:26. Reason: Deleted as per warnings
              Trust me?
              I'm an economist!

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              • #22
                Well, we have a problem with the NY Post article, not it's facts, but facts it did not report.

                The "insider' source of their article is a man named Julius Buckmon. He was the surveyor for the Census Bureau who claimed to have submitted false employment numbers. The paper also cites 'confidential documents'.

                The innuendo is clear: The favorable unemployment number released just before the 2012 election was faked.

                But the NY Post fails to report that Buckmon left the Census Bureau in 2011, a year before the election. Also, it fails to report that the 'confidential documents' were from a 2010 government investigation, 2 years before the election.

                It also ignores the sheer improbability that one surveyor or even 10 or 15 could skew the unemployment number. Buckmon was only one of 2,200 surveyors, contacting a rotating pool of 60,000 households a month representing 110,000 individuals. The survey is broken down into about 2,000 geographic areas, from which about 800 are randomly selected to make up the unemployment rate. The only way the September 2012 unemployment number could have been rigged is by collusion among a large group of senior managers. One rogue surveyor couldn't have made a difference.

                The problem of surveyors 'making-up' data isn't new. Often it's the result of plain laziness or in the rush to complete work. In fact, the Census Bureau always has a few cases under investigation, 14 in 2012.

                So, how did the September 2012 unemployment rate miraculously drop from 8.1% to 7.8%? You get a sense of the reasons from this article out at the time: September unemployment rate falls to 7.8%

                Also, it is interesting that the 7.8% number was consistent with charts showing a gradual decline for the previous 2 years. The rate is currently 7.2%.

                So, why is a Republican coming to the aid of Obama? I'm not, really. I just abhor ginned up tabloid scandals and crappy reporting. I don't have any complaint with the likes of Rep Issa using the furor to slam Obama and the dems, but personally I want to know the truth, and I want the WAB to be a place where the truth matters and journalistic bullsh*t exposed.
                To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                • #23
                  Attached Files

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by snapper View Post
                    [ATTACH=CONFIG]34403[/ATTACH]
                    I think this is the graph you meant to post.
                    Attached Files
                    Trust me?
                    I'm an economist!

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                    • #25
                      No my friend I did not. Just because unemployment statistics say the unemployment level is falling doesn't mean more people are working. They are not. Less people looking for work in this case means living by the black economy which is tax free!

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                      • #26
                        You're right. Mine reflects unemployment (the topic), rather than the number of retired people.

                        Interesting aside: In October, US inflation fell below 1%, year-on-year, for the first time in four years. Interestingly, it is the same 48 month period that the real Fed Funds rate has been negative.
                        Trust me?
                        I'm an economist!

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                        • #27
                          Sorry old chap but it ain't suddenly everyone retiring;



                          Either that or a whole load of people suddenly retired in 2008 and no younger people want jobs. Stop either kidding yourself - which I pray is what you're doing - or worse deceiving others.

                          Inflation - CPI may fall if you don't count consumers as consuming food or fuel. By the 1980 calculation US inflation is around 9.5%. But statistics don't need to eat and as long as the numbers look good you can continue to rob the average man to feed the election donors. Keep a flat in Hong Kong is my advice - your 'forged bits of tree' won't save you soon from an angry mob.
                          Attached Files

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                          • #28
                            Sheesh.

                            -dale

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                            • #29
                              snapper,

                              actually it's pretty funny that you use that graph; Krugman uses the same to push for more stimulus.

                              a good portion of that number can be attributed to retired people. 2008 was the first year that the Boomers could start taking social security and retiring. of course this trend will accelerate as time goes on.

                              this is how you can have a declining unemployment rate AND continued stagnation in the employment-population ratio. the new normal will be lower than in previous years.

                              in any case, i'm curious as to how you trust THAT graph over others. after all, isn't the census faked? aren't employment numbers faked? aren't inflation numbers faked? could it be you trust that graph because it seemingly corresponds with one of your arguments? :)
                              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by astralis View Post
                                actually it's pretty funny that you use that graph; Krugman uses the same to push for more stimulus.
                                This really is the question i was hoping to see an answer for here.

                                So people disagree whether the figures were faked. Now what. Continue QE or taper.

                                Is there a real recovery or not.

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