The Sequester

[DOR]

Wow. 2 whole years, urban consumers. Thanks for not joining the conversation. :)

-dale

Now that was useful.

[dalem]

Wow. 2 whole years, urban consumers. Thanks for not joining the conversation. :)

-dale

[DOR]

No inflation

US Consumer Price Index (all items), percent change year-on-year, January 2011 to February 2013.

[dalem]

energy and food prices (mostly energy; food's costs are mostly from energy) are affected far, far more by global events than they are by US debt levels.

what do you think has a greater effect of energy and food prices-- iran threatening to close down the Straits of Hormuz or US debt levels of 90%? alternatively, what happens when US shale oil starts getting produced in mass quantities?

I'm not saying where inflation's coming from, I'm saying that it's there. As far as energy, choosing to not develop our own resources has an effect on energy prices, and stuffing corn into our gas tanks for no good reason is a reinforcing harmonic on both food AND energy prices.

So don't tell me that "there's no inflation".

-dale

[astralis]

energy and food prices (mostly energy; food's costs are mostly from energy) are affected far, far more by global events than they are by US debt levels.

what do you think has a greater effect of energy and food prices-- iran threatening to close down the Straits of Hormuz or US debt levels of 90%? alternatively, what happens when US shale oil starts getting produced in mass quantities?

[dalem]

as for significant inflation...yeah, i've heard this since 2008/2009. this definitely will not happen in the short-term and there's a high probability of not happening in the medium-term, 10 years or so.

Yeah, IF you ignore energy and food prices. Have fun with that.

-dale

[astralis]

JAD,

Our economic system needs a thorough Roto-Rootering, but God forbid we should inconvenience anyone to do it.

it's a self-correcting issue, for the most part. realistically, debt will probably stabilize at approximately 85-95% of GDP, somewhat lower than the norm in western europe (which makes sense, we have better demographics, better higher education/tech base, access to natural resources, and immigration).

there will be no disaster, no greece-like event-- we produce rather more than luxury olive oils and tourism.

as for significant inflation...yeah, i've heard this since 2008/2009. this definitely will not happen in the short-term and there's a high probability of not happening in the medium-term, 10 years or so. i've literally bet my house on it for the last 3 years; quite a few people were telling me to buy when rates were 4.90% in mid-2009 as it was down from 6%+ a year or so earlier!

i got it several weeks ago for 2.75%. sorry, couldn't help the personal brag...:)

[dalem]

On your basic point--NIMBY economics--I agree. The people will never take an objective, what's-best-for-the-country position. The only bad spending is the spending that benefits someone else. I recognize that in myself even as I argue for what's best for the country. Our economic system needs a thorough Roto-Rootering, but God forbid we should inconvenience anyone to do it. We'll just keep sailing along until it clogs up. Brace yourself for significant inflation. :)

Wait up there, Hoss :) - I've advocated things that I'm ideologically opposed to (higher taxes) or cuts to things I'm personally invested in (government space exploration) in order to address the problems in spending I see. We're not ALL NIMBYs. :)

-dale

[JAD_333]

JAD,



think we've mentioned this a time or three but it's akin to the "Congress sucks except for my Congressman" problem. when asked what they would cut, huge majorities put SS/medicare/medicaid off limits, and instead want to raise taxes on the wealthy and cut military spending.

"conservatism with liberal characteristics", indeed...

On your basic point--NIMBY economics--I agree. The people will never take an objective, what's-best-for-the-country position. The only bad spending is the spending that benefits someone else. I recognize that in myself even as I argue for what's best for the country. Our economic system needs a thorough Roto-Rootering, but God forbid we should inconvenience anyone to do it. We'll just keep sailing along until it clogs up. Brace yourself for significant inflation. :)

[astralis]

JAD,

But he is right that a majority of Americans "think Washington has a spending problem".

think we've mentioned this a time or three but it's akin to the "Congress sucks except for my Congressman" problem. when asked what they would cut, huge majorities put SS/medicare/medicaid off limits, and instead want to raise taxes on the wealthy and cut military spending.

"conservatism with liberal characteristics", indeed...

[JAD_333]

And on a related note, Boehner all but says Romney's personality lost the election. I don't know if I buy that. But he is right that a majority of Americans "think Washington has a spending problem".

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/15/us...ment.html?_r=0

[JAD_333]

The bloom is off the rose. To those who say give Obama what he wants because he has a mandate from last fall's election, not so fast.

Obama’s approval drops as Americans take a dimmer view of his economic policies - The Washington Post

[snapper]

what i meant by the laffer curve statement is that at our current tax rates, a further reduction in taxes will NOT generate enough economic activity/economic efficiency to make up for the loss of revenue.

I was referring to the Bush tax cuts that I quoted you as referring to... and the answer? Well it's clear since you endorse the Fed rigging the bond market and everything else so that you can have an negative real borrowing rate anytime you want that the size of debts or the amount the tax levied on the people need never be reduced. I presume you would not accept that as true? So given that real wages are falling (so presumably Krugman is wrong about individuals savings), that more people are on food stamps than ever before, but yet that stock market is at an all time high and bond yields near all time lows... when does the man on street get some Bernanke 'magic money'?

"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."

-Woodrow Wilson

[DOR]

Oh, go away, men are talking.

-dale

So I noticed.
But, if economists aren't welcome, so be it.

[dalem]

dale,

ah yes, the ideological argument.

your money is yours first, of course, with the full realization that you, as a citizen of the Republic, have an obligation to the rest of the nation-- obligations which you and your fellow citizens decide upon through duly-elected representatives.

Well, I happen to have an ideology or two so sure, I often take positions based upon them.

And granting that I have the obligations you describe, who's going to generally decrease them - Dems or Repubs?

-dale