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  • #31
    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    Yeah, CBO got it all wrong.
    Premiums didn't go up as fast as they thought they would, and more people signed up.

    Idiots.

    [/sarscam]
    As the below chart shows, in 2010, when the Affordable Care Act was passed, CBO estimated that 21 million people would enroll in the ACA exchanges in 2016. The actual number was closer to 10 million. Even now, CBO believes that 18 to 19 million people will soon be enrolled in the exchanges, when in fact enrollment is degrading under current law. According to estimates I've published at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, Obamacare exchange enrollment will likely end up stabilizing at about 10 to 11 million.

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    • #32
      I am a conservative and for almost all my working life have had private health insurance. It made sense for me although the UK has free healthcare the NHS (National Health Service) does not extend to Macedonia or Poland. I can afford it so it was just pure common sense. What about those who do not travel though and cannot afford it? They are more productive if active and working - contributing tax. There is surely an economic case for universal healthcare for those who cannot afford the basics?

      Comment


      • #33
        bfng,

        As the below chart shows, in 2010, when the Affordable Care Act was passed, CBO estimated that 21 million people would enroll in the ACA exchanges in 2016. The actual number was closer to 10 million. Even now, CBO believes that 18 to 19 million people will soon be enrolled in the exchanges, when in fact enrollment is degrading under current law. According to estimates I've published at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, Obamacare exchange enrollment will likely end up stabilizing at about 10 to 11 million.
        https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ions/99157846/

        Coverage

        As it normally does, CBO attempted to forecast the law’s effects in each of the following 10 years. And here we compare what actually happened last year with what CBO predicted for 2016.

        CBO got the big picture right. It predicted that millions of people would gain coverage, and millions did.

        It predicted that the number of nonelderly (under age 65) people lacking insurance would drop to 30 million in 2016. And that turned out to be pretty close. The actual number was 27.9 million during the first nine months of last year, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health Interview Survey. That’s a decline of 20.3 million since 2010, by CDC’s reckoning.

        In percentage terms, CBO predicted 89% of the nonelderly would be covered by last year. CDC put the actual percentage at 89.7%.
        Exchanges

        Where CBO had trouble was predicting the number of newly insured who would get their coverage by purchasing private insurance through the new exchanges set up by the law. CBO predicted that in 2016 there would be 23 million getting policies through the exchanges. The actual number was 10.4 million during the first half of the year, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.

        That’s less than half the predicted total.

        Medicaid

        On the other hand, CBO was too low in its estimate of the number who would gain coverage through expansion of Medicaid, the state-federal program for low-income people and children.

        CBO estimated 10 million would be added to the Medicaid rolls by 2016, even with many states refusing to expand eligibility. But that was too low. As of the first quarter of last year, 14.4 million adults had enrolled in Medicaid as a result of the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of the program, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured.

        So to a large extent, CBO’s mistake was in estimating where the uninsured would get covered, not how many of them would gain coverage.
        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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        • #34
          In case you missed it the first time ...

          Obamacare Scorecard III

          2016 Edition

          _ Share _ _ _ _ 2013 _ _ _ 2014 _ _ _ 2015 _ _ _ 2016 _ _ _ 2013-16 _ _ _ 2013-16 p.a.

          Got insurance? _ _ 86.7% _ _ _89.6% _ _90.9% _ _ 91.2% _ _ _ +4.6 pts _ _ _ +1.5 pts. p.a.
          No insurance? _ _ _13.3%_ _ _10.4% _ _ _9.1% _ _ _8.8% _ _ _ -4.6 pts _ _ _ -1.5 pts. p.a.

          The number of insured people rose by 20.7 million under Obamacare, an average of 6.9 million people each year. While there are still 28 million without insurance, thatís down from 41.8 million in 2003.


          In 2013, 13 states had more than 15% of their population uncovered by health insurance:
          Alaska _ 18.5%
          Arkansas _ 16.0%
          California _ 17.2%
          Florida _ 20.0%
          Idaho _ 16.2%
          Louisiana _ 16.6%
          Montana _ 16.5%
          Nevada _ 20.7%
          New Mexico _ 18.6%
          North Carolina _ 15.6%
          Oklahoma _ 17.7%
          South Carolina _ 15.8%
          Texas _ 22.1%

          In 2016, it was just one state: Texas (16.6%).

          Source: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2...e/p60-260.html
          Trust me?
          I'm an economist!

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by DOR View Post
            Obamacare Scorecard III

            2016 Edition

            _ Share _ _ _ _ 2013 _ _ _ 2014 _ _ _ 2015 _ _ _ 2016 _ _ _ 2013-16 _ _ _ 2013-16 p.a.

            Got insurance? _ _ 86.7% _ _ _89.6% _ _90.9% _ _ 91.2% _ _ _ +4.6 pts _ _ _ +1.5 pts. p.a.
            No insurance? _ _ _13.3%_ _ _10.4% _ _ _9.1% _ _ _8.8% _ _ _ -4.6 pts _ _ _ -1.5 pts. p.a.

            The number of insured people rose by 20.7 million under Obamacare, an average of 6.9 million people each year. While there are still 28 million without insurance, that’s down from 41.8 million in 2003.


            In 2013, 13 states had more than 15% of their population uncovered by health insurance:
            Alaska _ 18.5%
            Arkansas _ 16.0%
            California _ 17.2%
            Florida _ 20.0%
            Idaho _ 16.2%
            Louisiana _ 16.6%
            Montana _ 16.5%
            Nevada _ 20.7%
            New Mexico _ 18.6%
            North Carolina _ 15.6%
            Oklahoma _ 17.7%
            South Carolina _ 15.8%
            Texas _ 22.1%

            In 2016, it was just one state: Texas (16.6%).

            Source: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2...e/p60-260.html
            How many can afford to use it though? I can't. Deductibles so high it basically means I can't touch it, just have to pay in each month.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by zraver View Post
              How many can afford to use it though? I can't. Deductibles so high it basically means I can't touch it, just have to pay in each month.
              Sorry to hear you're in financial distress.

              Imagine how bad it might be for someone who can't afford ANY health insurance.
              Trust me?
              I'm an economist!

              Comment


              • #37
                ironically this is precisely why the conservative side of the ACA is the hardest to defend politically, while the straight medicaid expansion is far easier to protect.

                and this is why the GOP continually fails at the repeal ACA game-- you can promise "freedom" to not pay for health insurance but good luck trying to expand coverage and lower prices.

                regarding the overall state of play, i agree with Krugman in that absent a commanding Democratic control of government, Dems would be better served by doing minor fixes/increases to the ACA while focusing on other objectives. the Sanders "Medicare for all" plan would mean a relatively small increase in the number of insured for the amount of expected disruption it would cause, both politically and economically.
                There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                Comment

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