Where to Now for the GOP - Presidential Elections

[JAD_333]

Going off the cliff will be bad for the GOP.

Of course, you are right. You are representative of most Americans, the media and politicians. You're seeing the road ahead only as far as the next hill. That is important, but it is shortsighted. The future of the US years out is being shaped right now. What is bad for the GOP today may be good for the country 50 years from now. One has to think short and long term. Just ask Gun Grape, an old concrete contractor, what comes first. The form or the pour. :)

[astralis]

JAD,

Few Americans are objective to the point where they are willing to suffer 10-20 years of hardship so the economy can blossom anew, stronger and more efficient and less prone to the shenanigans of investment banks, financial markets and special interests.

yet i question this "we must sacrifice for the long-term" POV.

10-20 years of hardship, translated, would mean millions of idled workers-- idled in the prime of their lives. people who can't afford education. a slow-down of economic/technological growth. this type of disruption does immense economic damage, perhaps more than the stagnation that you foresee.

the -guarantee- of short-term and medium-term pain with absolutely no guarantee that we would put into place all the systemic cures you deem advantageous to long-term growth (which of course everyone has their own panacea for).

as such, looking at the very long-term-- where we're famously all dead-- there is also a very real possibility that the "cure" proves rather worse than the disease.

[InExile]

I am starting to think the best solution is simply inflation not hyper inflation, but something like 5-10%; atleast that way everyone pays an equal share.

[bonehead]

Of course, you are right. You are representative of most Americans, the media and politicians. You're seeing the road ahead only as far as the next hill. That is important, but it is shortsighted. The future of the US years out is being shaped right now. What is bad for the GOP today may be good for the country 50 years from now. One has to think short and long term. Just ask Gun Grape, an old concrete contractor, what comes first. The form or the pour. :)

Going off the cliff may be bad or even worse for the country in the long haul as well as the short haul. If only we had a crystal ball for that. What is clear is that this country needs to make some changes. However changing for the sake of change would be a mistake. We need to come together as a country and find a long term direction and the leaders that will steer us in that direction. Right now we have the equivalent of two morons fighting over the rudder as the ship heads for the rocks.

I for one am enjoying the downfall of the republicans. It is in our nature to continue the course until we hit rock bottom before trying something new and I think the republicans are getting close to the bottom. They need to get rid of a lot of bad apples, show some humility and vision, and then develop a platform that is more in the best interest of the country and give up on their "party first" mantra. Once the GOP rises from the ashes it will be the democrats turn to fall and reinvent themselves. I see all this happening by 2024-2032. However a viable 3rd party that is a moderate would precipitate things a whole lot faster as reality would hit harder and faster than the current denial that pervades in the the two party system.

[tbm3fan]

Of course, you are right. You are representative of most Americans, the media and politicians. You're seeing the road ahead only as far as the next hill. That is important, but it is shortsighted. The future of the US years out is being shaped right now. What is bad for the GOP today may be good for the country 50 years from now. One has to think short and long term. Just ask Gun Grape, an old concrete contractor, what comes first. The form or the pour. :)

Not shortsighted at all. I was simply making an observation over how things will come down should that time arrive vs. your comment about the GOP calling Obama's bluff. Personally, I'd am curious to see what will happen come January 2nd and no deal in place. Obviously the crap will hit the fan all across the board. Well it is assumed it will. Now if that doesn't put a fire under their butts to hammer out a compromise...

[JAD_333]

JAD,



yet i question this "we must sacrifice for the long-term" POV.

In terms of economics, sacrifice is key, both in the short and long term. A businessman sacrifices some of his desires so he can preserve his operating capital. Sacrifice is what people do to earn a living, and not do, if they can avoid it, as millions do nowadays, thanks to government largesse that ultimately acts as a drag on the economy. We take money from productive people and give it to unproductive people. Sometimes that is a good thing, but mostly it ends up creating a large dependent class. Government interference continues to grow because every program begets new programs. People who have no need for food stamps get them these days because, unlike 4 years ago, they are available practically for the asking. The money to pay the bill comes right out of the economy, and when the economy can't provide it, the government borrows it. There's something wrong with that picture. What would we have to sacrifice to fix it?

20 years of hardship, translated, would mean millions of idled workers-- idled in the prime of their lives. people who can't afford education. a slow-down of economic/technological growth. this type of disruption does immense economic damage, perhaps more than the stagnation that you foresee.

I suppose you're right. We'll all travel around in beat up RVs from state to state looking for work picking apples and cabbages, and at night we'll all gather at the campfire to sing Woody Guthrie songs, tell jokes and write novels like "The Grapes of Wrath". It'll be great. It'll build self-reliant people with character, people who know what it means to be hungry and poor, who'll work hard to save for rainy days and avoid debt. Sound familiar?

the -guarantee- of short-term and medium-term pain with absolutely no guarantee that we would put into place all the systemic cures you deem advantageous to long-term growth (which of course everyone has their own panacea for).

Avoiding hard choices is what got up in this mess to start with. If we keep on running away from solutions, we'll have no choice but to live in the mess we've made.

as such, looking at the very long-term-- where we're famously all dead-- there is also a very real possibility that the "cure" proves rather worse than the disease.

There is that possibility. But I would be inclined to suffer the cure if to suffer the disease is worse.

[JAD_333]

I am starting to think the best solution is simply inflation not hyper inflation, but something like 5-10%; atleast that way everyone pays an equal share.

You mean, pays an equal rate. Anything over 3% is ruinous.

[JAD_333]

Going off the cliff may be bad or even worse for the country in the long haul as well as the short haul. If only we had a crystal ball for that. What is clear is that this country needs to make some changes. However changing for the sake of change would be a mistake. We need to come together as a country and find a long term direction and the leaders that will steer us in that direction. Right now we have the equivalent of two morons fighting over the rudder as the ship heads for the rocks.

I for one am enjoying the downfall of the republicans. It is in our nature to continue the course until we hit rock bottom before trying something new and I think the republicans are getting close to the bottom. They need to get rid of a lot of bad apples, show some humility and vision, and then develop a platform that is more in the best interest of the country and give up on their "party first" mantra. Once the GOP rises from the ashes it will be the democrats turn to fall and reinvent themselves. I see all this happening by 2024-2032. However a viable 3rd party that is a moderate would precipitate things a whole lot faster as reality would hit harder and faster than the current denial that pervades in the the two party system.

I like your post. Rather philosophical. I didn't click the like button because I don't quite agree with all your comments on the downfall of the GOP. I do agree the pendulum will, in time, swing away from the Democrats. But I believe the GOP is on the right track, but, as you seem to have alluded to, needs to jettison some useless baggage. I see the dems going down in 2016 for reasons I don't have time to go into right now.

[bonehead]

JAD,
I see this as much more of a pendulum swing. Both parties are going go suffer some huge losses and make some fundamental changes to how they do their business. Right now the republicans got kicked in the balls twice in 4 years. They are finally talking the talk but since the last election is scarcely a month old and the republicans have already retreated to the same trenches it doesn't look like they are ready for the walk. If the republicans get crushed in 2014 then I bet we will see some wholesale changes in the party and it will take 2-6 years for voters to trust them again. I see the republicans coming back strong in 2020. Then it will be the democrat's turn to go through the denial, more denial, then clean house scenario that the republicans are going through now. 2016 might be an optimistic time line and right now it is the democrats to lose it but they have dropped the ball before.

[astralis]

JAD,

Government interference continues to grow because every program begets new programs. People who have no need for food stamps get them these days because, unlike 4 years ago, they are available practically for the asking. The money to pay the bill comes right out of the economy, and when the economy can't provide it, the government borrows it. There's something wrong with that picture. What would we have to sacrifice to fix it?

yes, i'm aware of the GOP talking points.

We'll all travel around in beat up RVs from state to state looking for work picking apples and cabbages, and at night we'll all gather at the campfire to sing Woody Guthrie songs, tell jokes and write novels like "The Grapes of Wrath". It'll be great. It'll build self-reliant people with character, people who know what it means to be hungry and poor, who'll work hard to save for rainy days and avoid debt. Sound familiar?

or alternatively it'll create a populace willing to turn the GOP into a minority party for 40 years...something which occurred the last time this happened ;)

Avoiding hard choices is what got up in this mess to start with. If we keep on running away from solutions, we'll have no choice but to live in the mess we've made.

the short-term mess was caused by avoiding hard choices, a la the bush tax cut.

the long-term mess is caused by demographics.

and frankly, the largest portion of the mess is not a republican issue or a democratic issue but a senior-voter bloc issue.

[InExile]

JAD,

the short-term mess was caused by avoiding hard choices, a la the bush tax cut.

the long-term mess is caused by demographics.

and frankly, the largest portion of the mess is not a republican issue or a democratic issue but a senior-voter bloc issue.

What about the growth in means tested welfare spending; like food stamps, disability payments, Medicaid and subsidized housing. Right wing commentators like pointing out that usage of these programs has exploded the past decade and about a 100 million Americans receive some form of aid (excluding Social Security and Medicare). It is my understanding though that sum of all these programs is about 16% of the Federal budget, as opposed to almost 50% for Social Security and Medicare.

[tbm3fan]

What about the growth in means tested welfare spending; like food stamps, disability payments, Medicaid and subsidized housing. Right wing commentators like pointing out that usage of these programs has exploded the past decade and about a 100 million Americans receive some form of aid (excluding Social Security and Medicare). It is my understanding though that sum of all these programs is about 16% of the Federal budget, as opposed to almost 50% for Social Security and Medicare.

Welfare is 12.19% of the 2011 Federal Budget of 3.287 trillion dollars. That puts it at roughly $400 billion dollars. Deficit at $16.375 trillion dollars. Completely eliminating all welfare would erase that deficit in about 40.5 years. If they think they are going to get things under control by 2020 then increasing revenue is definitely has to on the table. No way around those stark numbers unless the economy grows at 8% for the next 10 years to help out.

As for Social Security and Medicare I have been taxed for those for 45 years now and it is $1.299 trillion now or 39%. When I hit 65 it will be 51 years so guess where I stand on fooling around with it. Of course, if someone wants to give me all that I paid in taxes for those years at 5% minimum interest then I will gladly give my benefits up.

[Mandala]

The Republican Party faces two problems: the growing income gap, the decline in the percentage of white voters.

Since 2000, and to a lesser extent since 1980, real after tax income for most Americans has declined. For the richest 20 percent it has increased. For the richest 1 percent it has increased much more.

The Vampire Economy | DNDN Message Board Posts

This has never happened before. Previous periods of growing income inequality were the last quarter of the nineteenth century, and the 1920's. Back then most Americans advanced somewhat.

The leaders of the GOP do not really care, because the people they really do care about are benefiting. Nevertheless, this is an issue the Democrats can exploit.

The Republicans can counter by telling economically struggling whites that their problems are caused by non whites. Those efforts will of course alienate non whites.

[Albany Rifles]

Mandala, we ask newly joined members to go to the introduction thread and tell us a bit about themselves when they first come on board. Please head there and introduce yourself to other members of the WAB.

[JAD_333]

The Republican Party faces two problems: the growing income gap, the decline in the percentage of white voters.

Since 2000, and to a lesser extent since 1980, real after tax income for most Americans has declined. For the richest 20 percent it has increased. For the richest 1 percent it has increased much more.

The Vampire Economy | DNDN Message Board Posts

This has never happened before. Previous periods of growing income inequality were the last quarter of the nineteenth century, and the 1920's. Back then most Americans advanced somewhat.

The leaders of the GOP do not really care, because the people they really do care about are benefiting. Nevertheless, this is an issue the Democrats can exploit.

The Republicans can counter by telling economically struggling whites that their problems are caused by non whites. Those efforts will of course alienate non whites.

Where theory meets reality here is that appealing to whites on that theme, however subtly, would hurt rather than help the GOP.

While there are plenty of whites in the Democratic party to go after--60% of the party is white/non-Hispanic--blasting minorities in the process is at odds with the reality that the GOP needs to beef up its minority support to win national elections.

The Hispanic community is a logical target. Hispanics make up only a small percentage of either party, 2 or 3%, but they account for more than 16% of the independent vote. The GOP can draw on those independents but not by making them into scapegoats. Same goes for Asians. Only black-Americans affiliated with parties outnumber their independent brethren.

Parties aim for power and have amazing powers of adaptation. The Democratic party was once the party of slavery while abolitionists helped found the GOP. The modern GOP, like any party that wants to survive, will move as far as it needs to to attract enough supporters to win.


Hopefully you've introduced yourself by now, and if so, welcome to the WAB.