2012 Presidential Election - The Ups and Downs

[dalem]

Ahh, thank you once again, Bill Whittle.

http://www.declarationentertainment....wall-looks-bad

-dale

[JAD_333]

The fiscal cliff...



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...f-in-one-post/

[JAD_333]

another way to look at the so-called fiscal cliff



Everything you need to know about the fiscal cliff in one post

[JAD_333]

If the payroll tax cuts end on Jan 1 and sequestration takes place (automatic cuts in DoD and other agency budgets)...

What will happen to the economy?

The CBO estimates that the total effect of these provisions is a 3.9 percent reduction in the growth rate of GDP next year — enough to make the year’s total growth rate negative, plunging the country back into recession. What’s more, the mere anticipation of this change will reduce GDP growth by 0.5 percent this year. However, this change is not evenly distributed between the cliff’s components, as this helpful chart from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget shows:

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So letting us fall over the fiscal cliff would be very bad in the short-term, and a deal that offset some of the changes would do a lot to mitigate that. The CBO estimates that if the payroll tax cut is allowed to expire but the other provisions are extended, growth will fall by 2.3 percent — not good, but it would leave the overall growth rate still positive.

Curiously, both deficit hawks and groups focused on promoting the interests of low-income people are more bullish about the cliff than the CBO is. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, for one, has noted that since most of the economic damage of the cliff is concentrated in the payroll tax cut expiring and the debt ceiling’s cuts, letting the more expensive Bush tax cuts expire while extending those provisions would have a much lesser impact.

Some deficit hawks are also sanguine about the cliff. A report from the Carlyle Group argues that going over the cliff is actually preferable to extending these policies and increasing the long-term deficit. “This automatic deficit reduction package would largely solve near-to-medium term fiscal problems,” the authors, Jason Thomas and David Marchick, argue. But it’s worth noting that while the expiration of these provisions reduces the deficit, the effect on growth actually grows the deficit by $47 billion between 2012 and 2013. This is easily overwhelmed by the deficit reduction of the actual provisions, but it’s a reminder that growth is an important and frequently undervalued tool for deficit reduction.

[astralis]

JAD,

But isn't the lower corporate rate abroad the impetus for our wanting to lower ours? It seems to me 5% will just start a bidding war with other countries. All we need to do is get close to their rates to nullify their advantage.

well, i was looking at a figure that would be enough to get companies to move their physical infrastructure here, as well. but i'm not wedded to the 5% figure. either way, i have to say this is the first time i think i've advocated a lower tax than you :)

With a two-tiered national healthcare system; that is, retired people on Medicare and everyone else covered in theory by Medicaid, what advantage is gained by raising the eligibility age for Medicare?

not sure how everyone else is covered in theory by medicaid-- there's certain means-tested low-income restrictions, right? raise eligibility rates for medicare and the base effect is to have seniors pay for more of their own medical costs prior to getting on medicare.

Slightly off topic, isn't raising the Social Security retirement age just going to make jobs more scarce for younger people?

slightly so, but not significantly. 'younger people' being affected in this case would be the 45-50 year old cohort, waiting for the next promotion slot up to evacuate, with bleedover into the other age groups. spreading this out over a few years would negate even this minor effect.

[bigross86]

Ahh, thank you once again, Bill Whittle.

http://www.declarationentertainment....wall-looks-bad

-dale

Full link to all 1,001 reasons here

[JAD_333]

Sarah Palin Deserves To Deliver Game Changer Speech At GOP Convention
By Kevin Fobbs on Jul 19, 2012 in 2012 Election News, featured opinion, Opinion, Politics

Winning the presidency has a lot more to do with the charisma of the leader than it does with the policies that are brought to the American dinner table. Just look at the last sorrowful example the country was saddled with in 2008 with the current president. Now there is reportedly, current intrigue moving about in the backrooms of GOP political leadership within Romney’s campaign concerning Sarah Palin. It is suggested that Romney is sitting pat on the idea of not issuing Sarah Palin VIP credentials to the August RNC Convention in Tampa, let alone giving her any real speaking role. Sarah Palin Deserves To Deliver Game Changer Speech At GOP Convention

Anyone think this is a good idea? I can see not giving her a keynote position, but let her speak. She represents a segment of the GOP. If the GOP wants to be the big umbrella, it has to start by including its own. Anyway, rumor has it Christie will be the keynoter. He'll rock the house.

The word is going out quietly to Republican activists across New Jersey: If you’re going to the GOP convention in Tampa next month, be sure to be there by Tuesday night, Aug. 28, because Gov. Chris Christie is going to be giving the keynote speech that night.

“We’ve been told that’s the night to be there, that’s when the governor is going to speak. They’re saying he’s the keynoter,” one top party activist told The Post yesterday.

Read more: Christie to give keynote at convention, NJ GOPers told - NYPOST.com

[dalem]

Sure, let 'em both speechify - it'll be great.

-dale

[antimony]

Anyone think this is a good idea? I can see not giving her a keynote position, but let her speak. She represents a segment of the GOP. If the GOP wants to be the big umbrella, it has to start by including its own. Anyway, rumor has it Christie will be the keynoter. He'll rock the house.

I think it is a bad idea.
The faction that Palin represents is already in the bag, Romney now needs to focus on the independents/ fence sitters and this lady will screw that plan.

Same for Michelle Bachmann

[bigross86]

I would love to hear Christie's speech. The man is bloody amazing

[Parihaka]

Anyone think this is a good idea?

Palin's job was to pull women from the Dems after Clinton was put down, which she succeeded in doing for all of 48 hours. After that it became the Sarah Palin show with the well chewed over result. Put her in a prominent seat, or rather tie her to it, and place an invisible gag over her mouth.




"just smile and wave boys, smile and wave"

[JAD_333]

Pari:

The pressure is on to let Palin speak. Senator DeMint and Newt Gingrich back it. She herself reportedly asked for a slot.

At this point refusing her a spot becomes an issue in itself, and a bit of a rebuff to her and her fans. While it's true that her adoring fans will probably vote for Romney no matter what, angering them will dampen their enthusiasm to work for Romeny's election. I'm sure a spot can be found for her and I expect she will not do her hockey mom bit. She's strong on energy policy, and really not at all a political dummy. Hey, let's have a party.:)

[Gun Grape]

Let her speak. And the idiot Birthers too. Just let them do it out back, in a circus tent.

[antimony]

Pari:

The pressure is on to let Palin speak. Senator DeMint and Newt Gingrich back it. She herself reportedly asked for a slot.

At this point refusing her a spot becomes an issue in itself, and a bit of a rebuff to her and her fans. While it's true that her adoring fans will probably vote for Romney no matter what, angering them will dampen their enthusiasm to work for Romeny's election. I'm sure a spot can be found for her and I expect she will not do her hockey mom bit. She's strong on energy policy, and really not at all a political dummy. Hey, let's have a party.:)

Emphasis on the bolded part.

JAD, what makes you think that Palin supporters would actually work for Romney?

Agree with Pari, Romney needs to strike a deal with her which involves a gag order.

[JAD_333]

Emphasis on the bolded part.

JAD, what makes you think that Palin supporters would actually work for Romney?

From experience as a national campaign staffer, as a GOP county committee member and as a state delegate... Let me answer from a negative perspective. In an election, you don't marginalize a segment of the party that didn't support you in the primaries. Snubbing one of their national spokespersons does just that. I know my district. Heavily GOP and many Tea Party members. If Palin is denied a speaking role, it will be a slap in their face. Yes, they'll hold their nose and vote for Romney, but don't count on their help either financially or in turning out the vote. Besides I think she could turn in a healing performance.