Trump guarentees Obama landslide

[Julie]

In the mean time I expect all the butter cookies to be sent to me to hold in safe keeping

Yeah, right....that's like Top holding the cheetos.

[Julie]

julie,



okay, let's do a similar bet as the one i made to highsea: if obama loses in 2012 i owe you in a tin. if not, you owe me a tin.

and i'll buy you 10 tins if trump wins. that Newsmax poll was an "internet poll sponsored by Newsmax.com"...yeah...no way there's sampling/bias errors there...

Deal.

I know the newsmax poll was sponsored by Newsmax, but it was still shocking to me that anyone would even consider Trump as a candidate over Obama. I think it says something.

[highsea]

I'm pretty sure Attila the Hun would beat Obama in a Newsmax poll....

astralis, you're on. Barry wins, I send cookies to the troops. He loses, you send 'em.

Better buy in bulk, you are going to be sending a lot of cookies.

[Julie]

I'll give yall a better poll done by CNN:

CNN Poll: Trump tied for first in GOP horserace

Washington (CNN) - Donald Trump is now tied with Mike Huckabee for first place when Republicans are asked who they support for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012, according to a new national poll.

But while a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday indicates that the real estate mogul and reality TV star has nearly doubled his support since mid-March, it doesn't mean he has smooth sailing ahead.

"More than four in ten Republicans say they would not like to see Trump toss his hat in the ring," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Nineteen percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents questioned in the poll say that as of now, they'd be most likely to support Trump for next year's GOP presidential nomination. Trump says he'll decide by June whether he runs for the White House. An equal amount say they'd back Huckabee. The former Arkansas governor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate says he'll decide by later this year if he'll make another bid for the White House.

Twelve percent say they'd support former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, who was the party's 2008 vice presidential nominee, with 11 percent backing former Massachusetts Gov. and 2008 White House hopeful Mitt Romney and the same amount supporting former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Seven percent say they are backing Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, another 2008 presidential candidate, with five percent supporting Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who enjoys strong backing from many in the Tea Party movement. Everyone else registers in the low single digits.

Trump jumped from 10 percent in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted last month, with Romney dropping from 18 percent to 11 percent.

"Are Republicans switching from Romney to Trump? Some are, but it's a lot more complicated than that, as you would expect with 11 potential hats in the ring," adds Holland. "Only one in five Trump supporters say that Romney would be their second choice. It looks like Trump pulls as much support from Gingrich and Palin as from Romney, and Romney's support would go down even if Trump were not in the list of potential candidates."

The poll was conducted in the two days before Romney's Monday announcement that he was taking the first formal step towards another bid, by setting up a presidential exploratory committee.

According to the survey, more than seven in ten Republicans say that regardless of whom they would support, they'd like to see Huckabee run for the party's presidential nomination, with two-thirds saying the same thing about Romney.

But that figure drops to 56 percent for Trump, with 43 percent saying they don't want to see him run. By a narrower 53 to 47 percent margin, they would like to see Palin make a bid for the White House, and by a 51 to 45 percent margin, they would like to see Gingrich run.

So what could be behind Trump's rise in the poll?

One contributing factor could be his numerous appearances in the national media. Trump's questioning of whether President Barack Obama was born in the U.S. has put Trump smack in the media spotlight the past two months.

"If Trump is rising in the polls because of the amount of air time he has gotten, it would be difficult to tell whether his gains are due to what he is saying or simply due to his increased visibility. In a field of more than a dozen potential candidates, all air time is good air time," says Holland. "Most presidential seasons get to a point when the voters are looking for a fresh face. That's what gave us Fred Thompson in 2008 and Wesley Clark in 2004, to name just two examples. If the Republican rank and file has already hit that phase, Trump would be the obvious beneficiary."

But being in the top spot in the polls the year before the election doesn't always end with that candidate winning their party's nomination. Both Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani led in the national horserace polls in 2007, with neither ending up taking their party nominations.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted by telephone, with 824 people questioned. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Poll: Trump tied for first in GOP horserace – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

A Trump/Huckabee ticket wouldn't be too bad either. Matter of fact, I heard they had a meeting together today.

Yep....better start stocking up on some butter cookies. ;)

[Roosveltrepub]

Julie, those polls point to why Obama has a head up. Trump surged when he embraced birtherism. That won't fly with the mainstream. So obamaderanged right present a problem because their message communist!!! not american!!! is not attractive to swing voters

[Roosveltrepub]

I'm pretty sure Attila the Hun would beat Obama in a Newsmax poll....

astralis, you're on. Barry wins, I send cookies to the troops. He loses, you send 'em.

Better buy in bulk, you are going to be sending a lot of cookies.

will you double down on that with a 20 dollar phone card bet?

[Roosveltrepub]

I'm pretty sure Attila the Hun would beat Obama in a Newsmax poll....

astralis, you're on. Barry wins, I send cookies to the troops. He loses, you send 'em.

Better buy in bulk, you are going to be sending a lot of cookies.

I'm pretty sure He would be considered to centrist by the tea party :Dancing-Banana:

[zraver]

i already have one ongoing bet with zraver re: inflation, although your guess of 6% inflation is rather lower than z's belief that we will be in hyperinflationary hell. it'll still be nowhere close to 6% though; it's 2.1% now.

Don't get to comfortable food and fuel price spikes will win me those butter cookies. The price of a gallon of gas is up 25% year over year, beef is over 10%. Pork and fresh veggies are at 8.9%, othe rmeats over 6% and several food items like fruits, fats/oils are near or above 5%. Gold has more than doubled since 2006 while the dollar has lost 8% of its value vs the Euro year over year.

[highsea]

will you double down on that with a 20 dollar phone card bet?

I don't think we'll see Attila on the ticket, if that's what you mean.

You want to bet me a phone card Obama loses? I can do that- phone cards for the troops, right?

I'm in for 5 x $20 phone cards- Rosie's got the first one, next?

[Julie]

Julie, those polls point to why Obama has a head up. Trump surged when he embraced birtherism. That won't fly with the mainstream. So obamaderanged right present a problem because their message communist!!! not american!!! is not attractive to swing voters

He's lost swing voters, and he is in jeopardy of losing his own supporters:

Progressive Group To Supporters: Withhold Donations To Obama If He Cuts Medicare, Medicaid

WASHINGTON -- One of the thorniest progressive groups in the side of the Obama administration is launching a new campaign against the president on Tuesday, this time targeting the president’s vaunted grassroots donor base.

One day before President Obama is slated to outline his blueprint for deficit reduction, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) put out a preemptive warning shot, of sorts. In an email to its list, the group asks members to withhold money from the Obama re-election campaign should the president endorse cuts to Medicare and Medicaid.

Progressive angst with the president is hardly unique to the deficit debate. On Tuesday, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) announced that he would oppose the budget deal coordinated by the White House, Senate Democrats and House Republicans, on grounds that the cuts were “Robin Hood in reverse.”

In that respect, the PCCC’s latest campaign fits its institutional niche -- the group has done wonders raising funds, building its email list, and raising its profile off demands that Obama be a more principled Democrat. What stands out about this effort is the targeting of small donors, whose money remains (despite all the high-profile fundraising events) mother’s milk for the Obama campaign.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._lnk3%7C209603

Obama is now in a box, and if he even hints at cutting Medicaid or Medicare, the man is history.

[highsea]

Guys, Rosie has the right idea. Let's switch our bets to phone/gift cards for the troops. $20 a pop.

We can buy these through the army/air force exchange service and it guarantees that our people overseas will be able to use them in the exchange or for calling home.

Link here:

https://shop.aafes.com/scs/default.aspx

We can prove we paid up on the bets by PM'ing the receipt to the winner.

Agree?

[Julie]

Obama's 2012 chances of winning Pennsylvania not so hot, new poll shows

Published: Tuesday, April 12, 2011, 2:05 PM Updated: Tuesday, April 12, 2011, 2:36 PM

Not many of the potential Republican candidates for president in 2012 are particularly well liked in Pennsylvania, but that's still not good enough news for Barack Obama.

A new poll today signals that the swinging Keystone state could prove troublesome for the Democratic president, even against a field of Republicans that so far promises primary runs from Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann and the country's newest big Birther, Donald Trump.

According to Public Policy Polling, Pennsylvania's looking like it could be a very tough state for Obama in 2012. His approval rating here is only 42 percent, with 52 percent of voters disapproving of him.

Obama is within the margin of error in the state against three potential Republican opponents, including Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. That's a far cry from his double-digit victory in the state in 2008.

"What has to be concerning for Obama beyond those topline numbers is that the Republicans poll competitively with him despite the fact that they themselves are not well liked,'' said PPP pollster Tom Jensen.

"Huckabee's net favorability is a minus-6 spread ... and Romney and Santorum are both at minus-10 spreads. The fact that they tie Obama without being all that appealing makes you wonder how much trouble the president will be in here if the party's nomination process actually does result in a strong candidate,'' Jensen said.

Pennsylvania is back to looking red heading into the 2012 election cycle. Republicans control the state House and Senate and Gov. Tom Corbett won the governor's post handily over Democrat Dan Onorato. Sen. Pat Toomey nudged former Rep. Joe Sestak to take Arlen Specter's seat.

"Obama has two major problems in the state: independents and white Democrats. A majority of independents disapprove of him: 54 percent give him bad marks to 39 percent who think he's doing a good job,'' PPP polling said.

"More concerning is that his approval rating with Democrats is only 68 percent, well below the 81 percent we find for him nationally.''

Obama's 2012 chances of winning Pennsylvania not so hot, new poll shows | PennLive.com

[astralis]

okay, highsea,

so one phone card from me if he loses, one phone card from you if he wins.

[highsea]

Love it.

Trump is the big birther and Obama's only problems are independents and white democrats.

edit: astralis- you got it.

[dalem]

If Trump ran as an independent and siphoned off the 3 percent of the electorate that is still made up of birthers angry there is " a shiney black man" in the big chair no way Republicans compete in swing states.

I say it that way to point out the fact that the only people who care about Obama's skin color are, as usual, liberals.

That said I do think the birther thing is a loser for the Repubs.

-dale