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2024 U.S. Election of President and Vice President

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  • Ironduke
    replied
    I'm curious if Georgia was called too early. Trump is currently ahead by 117,000 votes, but my napkin math is that Harris will close that margin by 70-80k based on where the outstanding votes are, by the time the count is done. If there have been no delays in counting absentee ballots, this would narrow Trump's lead to 40-50k. I have no idea though how timely or delayed Georgia has been in 2024 in counting absentee ballots, or if there would be enough net Harris votes from absentees to swing the state.

    In 2020 there was a "red mirage" that disappeared over the next four days as absentee votes were counted, that might not be a thing in 2024 as election officials are most likely much timelier with the count this time around.

    Virtually every reputable source has called Georgia though, so I'm guessing they are surer on the numbers than I am.

    The numbers are not looking good in PA, WI, MI. Trump has a lead of 189k in PA at the moment, it was just called, but this should shrink by half as outstanding votes are counted. Doesn't seem like there's any chance there. I think Harris will narrow the leads in WI and MI by 40k and 90k respectively, but not enough to overtake Trump's current leads (122k and 289k). Unless there's a shitload of absentee votes yet to be counted and they went something like four-to-one toward Harris.

    I do think though there's a good chance Harris will take Arizona. Currently Trump is +28k, but my estimate is when the count is done Harris will be +50k. But all for naught if Trump sweeps the "inside straight" states of 2016.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 06 Nov 24,, 08:31.

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  • Versus
    replied
    Well, this was unexpected..

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  • statquo
    replied
    Just a disastrous loss. I kinda figured he’d win again and the Republicans would win the Senate but I didn’t expect them to extend their House majority.

    A full Republican federal government with the Supreme Court in their pocket? Wow. Do the Dems even recover from this? What a disaster.

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  • InExile
    replied
    Decision Desk HQ has called Pennsylvania for Trump, which puts him at 270

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  • TopHatter
    replied
    Pardon me while I vomit....

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  • statquo
    replied
    Originally posted by InExile View Post
    Looks like Harris is done. Trump will sweep the battlegrounds
    Looks like they're extending their majorities in the House and Senate too. Truly worst case scenario for the Dems and orphaned Republicans.

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  • InExile
    replied
    Looks like Harris is done. Trump will sweep the battlegrounds

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  • Versus
    replied
    Wow, this will be uncertain to the last second.

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  • statquo
    replied
    Watching the Allan Lichtman stream. He’s looked sick to his stomach for the last hour. Going to come down to the wire in the blue wall.

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  • Monash
    replied
    It's not looking good gents.

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  • statquo
    replied
    Well wish you guys the best. The next couple months is going to be a gongshow regardless of who wins.

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  • Monash
    replied
    Just a short video that for some reason I thought might have some relevance to us all and to this thread in particular.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnD50llAkP4

    The closing argument is what caught my attention.

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  • statquo
    replied
    I’d be scared shitless of the prospect of RFK Jr in charge of the Department of Health and Kash Patel in charge of the Department of Justice.

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  • Monash
    replied
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    We are now either 4 days or 4 years away from the end of the Trump era. I voted for my first ever democrat. Hopefully I will never have to do that again. If the vote genie grants my wish Harris wins, GOP keeps the senate, Trump goes away and divided government and gridlock force the parties to the center. Fingers crossed. If Trump wins I hope the Dems get at least 1 house of Congress. Thugh the thought of 4 more years of MAGA v TDS makes my head hurt. especially as Trump is old but Vance is not. He is a scary dude. Trump is an oppurtunist, but a dumb one. Vance is smarter, younger and openly pro-Russian.
    Not sure 'grid lock' helps much if at all. You just end up with a succession of Administrations all of whom achieve little if anything from the list of campaign promises that got them elected in the first place. At least if they got some of their promised legislation through they would then have to live or die by the results (good or bad) that flowed from those legislative changes. As it stands?

    After four years US voters end up with yet another Administration that failed to deliver what was promised and 'lied' to the American people. Queue more disillusionment with Politicians and the political establishment in general and hence more voters willing to listen to unscrupulous and opportunistic chancers like that arsehat Trump.

    Nice to see you back btw Z!
    Last edited by Monash; 03 Nov 24,, 11:15.

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  • zraver
    replied
    We are now either 4 days or 4 years away from the end of the Trump era. I voted for my first ever democrat. Hopefully I will never have to do that again. If the vote genie grants my wish Harris wins, GOP keeps the senate, Trump goes away and divided government and gridlock force the parties to the center. Fingers crossed. If Trump wins I hope the Dems get at least 1 house of Congress. Thugh the thought of 4 more years of MAGA v TDS makes my head hurt. especially as Trump is old but Vance is not. He is a scary dude. Trump is an oppurtunist, but a dumb one. Vance is smarter, younger and openly pro-Russian.

    Leave a comment:

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