2024 U.S. Election of President and Vice President

[statquo]

Ran a $17.6 billion surplus in 2023, protected abortion rights, protected LGBT rights, tax credits for families with children aimed at slashing childhood poverty, universal free school breakfast and lunches for students regardless of family income, enacted paid family and medical leave, legalized recreational marijuana, banned junk fees and banned NCAs for workers, strong union supporter, once an "A" NRA rating before supporting common sense preventative measures etc.

Scary "leftist" stuff there... Maybe there's a different definition of leftist...

Going after Walz for George Floyd protests?

"I know Gov. Walz is on the phone, and we spoke, and I fully agree with the way he handled it the last couple of days," Trump told a group of governors on June 1, 2020, according to a recording of the call, in which he also called Walz an "excellent guy."

"I was very happy with the last couple of days, Tim," Trump continued. "You called up big numbers and the big numbers knocked them out so fast it was like bowling pins."

Leftist? Shameful military career? Taught in China? Soft on BLM protests? I guess we're in the throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks phase.

[TopHatter]

Leftist? Shameful military career? Taught in China? Soft on BLM protests? I guess we're in the throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks phase.

These days you're accused of being a "Leftist" if you're anywhere to the Left of hunting the homeless for sport

Let's face it, Walz committed the most unforgiveable sin: He agreed to run against Trump/Vance.

[Albany Rifles]

He also gives lie to the saying all the military if pro Trump, especially the Guard. HUGE swaths of the military may not identify as a Democrat but their beliefs align almost word for word with the Democrats. In the Guard it matches the general region and how it goes. An example...the Georgia ARNG is very pro Trump...except for those units in Atlanta & Savannah with large numbers of African Americans which are Democratic strongholds.

Walz is a favorite son of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), a merging of parties in the 1940s...Hubert Humphreys was one of its fathers. It basically is the Democratic Party of MInnesota.

[Albany Rifles]

Last week's news and resulting fears appear to be overblown. All major indices are up over 1% on the day over yesterday, another day of market rise. What appears to have been lost to traders on Monday was the "bad" numbers reported were the first to reflect the influx of new high school and college grads into the labor market. This appears to have caused a bubble. MTF and worth keeping an eye on.

And anyone else noticing gas prices dropping? We are at 2.99.9 +/- a gallon of regular around here.


US weekly jobless claims drop calms market fears | Reuters

US weekly jobless claims drop calms market fears

By Lindsay Dunsmuir
August 8, 202410:58 AM EDT







A pedestrian passes a "Help Wanted" sign in the door of a hardware store in Cambridge, Massachusetts

Aug 8 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, calming fears the labor market was unraveling and reinforcing that a gradual softening remains intact.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday, the largest drop in about 11 months. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 240,000 claims for the latest week.


It was a welcome reversal after last week's surprise sharp jump in jobless claims, and most likely reflects a fading in the impact from temporary motor vehicle plant shutdowns and Hurricane Beryl. The prior week was revised up slightly to 250,000 from the previously reported 249,000 tally.
U.S. stocks gained following the release, while benchmark Treasury yields rose back above 4%. The U.S. dollar (.DXY), opens new tab also strengthened against a basket of currencies.


"The talk of an imminent recession seems wide of the mark," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.


Investors in interest rate futures contracts pared bets the Federal Reserve will start cutting borrowing costs next month with a bigger-than-usual 50-basis-point reduction to about a 58% probability from 70% before the release.

Claims have been on a roughly upward trend since June, with part of the rise blamed on volatility related to the motor vehicle plant shutdowns for retooling and disruptions caused by Hurricane Beryl in Texas. Unadjusted claims dropped 13,589 to 203,054 last week.

Claims fell sharply in Michigan and Missouri, states with a heavy presence of motor vehicle assembly plants which saw claims rise the prior week. Auto makers typically idle assembly lines in July to retool for new models.
Over the past few weeks overall claims have been hovering near the high end of the range this year, but layoffs remain generally low. Government data last week showed the layoffs rate in June was the lowest in more than two years. The slowdown in the labor market is being driven by less aggressive hiring as the Fed's interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 dampen demand.

The Fed also closely monitors how jobless rolls compare to the size of the labor force to gauge the health of the jobs market. Growth in the labor force has largely kept pace with the gradual rise of those claiming jobless relief and is about where it was before the coronavirus pandemic.


The U.S. central bank last week kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since last July, but policymakers signaled their intent to reduce borrowing costs at their next policy meeting in September.

However, the government's monthly nonfarm payrolls report last Friday showed job gains slowed markedly in July and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, alarming markets at that point that the labor market may be deteriorating at a pace that would call for strong action from the Fed.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.875 million during the week ending July 27, the claims report showed, continuing an upward trend. That caused some economists to remain wary.
"Investors have to be careful not to read too much into one report like they did recently with the last payroll report," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "If the data deteriorates quickly from here, the Fed could take more decisive action in September and cut by a half of a percent."

WHOLESALE INVENTORIES RISE

Meanwhile, U.S. wholesale inventories increased in June, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Thursday, adding to economic growth in the second quarter. Wholesale inventories rose 0.2% in June as previously estimated. Stocks at wholesalers advanced by 0.5% in May.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected that inventories, a key part of gross domestic product, would rise by an unrevised 0.2%. Inventories edged up 0.1% on a year-on-year basis in June.
The economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter. That was double the growth pace in the first quarter. Private inventory investment added 0.82 percentage point to GDP growth in the April-June period after being a drag for the two previous quarters, which more than offset a 0.72 percentage point hit from a wider trade gap.
Wholesale motor vehicle inventories rose 0.8% in June. Excluding autos, wholesale inventories advanced 0.1%. This component goes into the calculation of GDP.
Sales at wholesalers fell 0.6% in June after rising 0.3% in May. At June's sales pace it would take wholesalers 1.37 months to clear shelves, up from 1.35 months in May.

[tbm3fan]

Last week's news and resulting fears appear to be overblown. All major indices are up over 1% on the day over yesterday, another day of market rise. What appears to have been lost to traders on Monday was the "bad" numbers reported were the first to reflect the influx of new high school and college grads into the labor market. This appears to have caused a bubble. MTF and worth keeping an eye on.

And anyone else noticing gas prices dropping? We are at 2.99.9 +/- a gallon of regular around here.


US weekly jobless claims drop calms market fears | Reuters

Unemployment numbers might have been a small part of the 1000 point drop in the Dow but I feel it was Bank of Japan's interest rate hike that caused everyone in the carry trade to panic and bail. As you can see the market started to go right back up the next day as other investors saw deals that screamed buy. I put in orders the night of the big drop. If it had been because of the US economy, solely, then there wouldn't be this bounce back so quickly.in my opinion. I got Costco at 797.5 and today it is at 837.68. Thank you all who panicked.

[Albany Rifles]

Unemployment numbers might have been a small part of the 1000 point drop in the Dow but I feel it was Bank of Japan's interest rate hike that caused everyone in the carry trade to panic and bail. As you can see the market started to go right back up the next day as other investors saw deals that screamed buy. I put in orders the night of the big drop. If it had been because of the US economy, solely, then there wouldn't be this bounce back so quickly.in my opinion. I got Costco at 797.5 and today it is at 837.68. Thank you all who panicked.

Great point on. Like many of my countrymen I had my blinders on. I was aware of the impacts of Japan but did a poor job internalizing them.

And we let our investment counselor handle the day to day stuff but she also moved aggressively and did well by us! Nive catch on Costco!

[DOR]

US weekly jobless claims drop calms market fears | Reuters

Weekly initial unemployment claims start a sharp rise after a recession is about half over.
Lagging indicator.

[Albany Rifles]

Weekly initial unemployment claims start a sharp rise after a recession is about half over.
Lagging indicator.

Thanks. Always know a true economist will give a better interpretation!

[TopHatter]

Get Ready Now: Republicans Will Refuse to Certify a Harris Win
Trumpist county election officials are preparing to throw the process into chaos.

1. Trump’s Not Taking the L. . .

The last two weeks—the unveiling of the Harris-Walz ticket, and Kamala Harris’s surge in the polls—feels like some surreal dream state. Everything has changed. Have you noticed Harris has pushed Donald Trump right out of the comfy lead he’s held for an entire year? He’s noticed. From FiveThirtyEight to RealClearPolitics—pick your polling average—they all now show Harris out in front after only two and a half weeks.

Trump is no longer on track to win the election—which he has been for more than six straight months. Instead, the momentum, money, voter registration, volunteering, grassroots organizing, polling, and online engagement all favor the Democrats and it looks now like Trump could easily lose.

But that won’t happen, because Trump doesn’t lose. He beat Joe Biden in 2020—remember? So if he’s not the rightful victor on November 5, an entire army of Republicans is ready to block certification of the election at the local level.

No need to worry about mayhem on January 6, 2025 when Congress meets in joint session; the election deniers plan to stop a result right away if it looks like Harris is winning. Their goal: Refuse to certify anywhere—even a county that Trump won—and prevent certification in that state, which prevents certification of the presidential election.

A Harris victory could become a nightmare.

An investigation by Rolling Stone identified “in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania . . . at least 70 pro-Trump election conspiracists currently working as county election officials who have questioned the validity of elections or delayed or refused to certify results.” Of those 70, 22 of them already have “refused or delayed certification” in recent past elections. Nationwide, Republicans have refused to certify results at least 25 times since 2020, in eight states—the most in Georgia.

The article describes social media posts from the zealots who have infiltrated election administration as showing “unapologetic belief in Trump’s election lies, support for political violence, themes of Christian nationalism, and controversial race-based views.”

There are more than enough such individuals in these key posts to bring us to a constitutional crisis.

“I think we are going to see mass refusals to certify the election” in November, Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias told Rolling Stone. “Everything we are seeing about this election is that the other side is more organized, more ruthless, and more prepared.”

Sit with that.

Then there is this. Trump’s self-destructive attacks on Georgia’s popular governor made the headlines from his Atlanta rally last Saturday, but he also singled out for praise three little-known Georgians—Janice Johnston, Rick Jeffares, and Janelle King—calling them “pitbulls fighting for honesty, transparency, and victory.”

Who are Johnston, Jeffares, and King? They are three of the five members of Georgia’s State Election Board. Three days after Trump’s speech, this past Tuesday, those three Republicans approved a new rule requiring a “reasonable inquiry” prior to election certification that—while vague and undefined—could be exploited to delay certification and threaten the statewide election certification deadline of November 22.

The law in Georgia, where Trump and fourteen1 others are charged with plotting to overturn the 2020 election result, requires county election boards to certify results “not later than 5:00 P.M. on the Monday following the date on which such election was held”—so this year, by the evening of November 11. The secretary of state is then to certify the statewide results “not later than 5:00 P.M. on the seventeenth day” after the election, so November 22.

Across the country, the November election results will have to be certified in more than 3,000 counties, and all state results must be final by the time electors meet in each state on December 17. Members of county election boards are not tasked with resolving election issues; certification is mandatory and “ministerial,” not discretionary. Disputes over ballot issues are separate from the certification process—investigated and adjudicated by district attorneys, state election boards, and in court.

Election experts say the new rule could disrupt the entire process across the state by allowing local partisans to reject results. And Georgia appears to be at the center of Trump’s plans. Casting doubt on Fulton County, which makes up the bulk of Democratic votes in the state, will help him claim he won the Peach State as the rest of the results come in red.

But even without an explicitly permitted “inquiry” like the new Georgia rule provides, Republicans in other swing states still plan on acting at the county level to slow or stop certification. Because questioning the outcome at the very start of the process will create delay. Any doubt and confusion, and perhaps even violence, makes it easier to miss essential deadlines and can threaten the chance that the rightful winner prevails.

Election deniers also hope that sowing chaos might prompt GOP legislatures to intervene—in Georgia, Arizona, or Wisconsin for example—a dangerous scenario I wrote about in April.

Share

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2) How Is This Happening All Over Again?

With all that has transpired since November 3, 2020, why are we here again?

Four years later we must ask this question. Our entire country has been held hostage by Trump’s mental and emotional deficits. He doesn’t “lose.” He is unwell and cannot publicly acknowledge defeat. Democracy was vulnerable before Trump, but its fragility could be fatal because of him.

The Big Lie, born from his pathological insecurity, led to a failed coup and a deadly insurrection. We had hoped those two things would undo or, at least, diminish the power of the Big Lie. Yet it has only grown more potent and widespread. It is an article of faith in the GOP base, with polls estimating that roughly two-thirds of Republicans are bought in.

These voters know there was no “evidence” that passed legal muster in court in more than 60 separate cases.

They know multiple recounts and audits in swing states certified Biden the winner.

They know Trump’s own Department of Justice concluded the same and that his own Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency called the election “the most secure in American history.”

But they cling to his lies, and to conspiracy, because Trump’s cult provides a sense of belonging more nourishing than truth, and more compelling than facts.

Most GOP elected representatives and leaders do not believe the Big Lie—after all, they never questionedtheir own victories or losses in 2020. But they are cowards, so to stay in power they have perpetuated Trump’s mass delusion through their silence or their bandwagoning—which Liz Cheney details in her enraging book Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning. Those named in her account of the aftermath of the 2020 election know what is coming this November if Trump loses, from House Speaker Mike Johnson on down.

So Trump knows there are millions among us who believe him when he says Democrats can only win if they cheat and who believe dark forces are at work to thwart him again. And Trump needs to be president again. He wants to get his criminal cases thrown out, and to stay out of jail.

There is nothing he won’t try.

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3) Who Can Stop It?

Courts have already intervened to stop efforts like this. At least ten counties refused certification in the primaries in 2022, followed by two counties—in Arizona and Pennsylvania—refusing to certify general election results that year. They lost in court and the results were certified. Participants in fake elector schemes have been prosecuted.

In retrospect, those efforts look like initial probes—like a bank robber casing the joint, figuring out where the guards stand and the cameras are while planning the real heist. Elias wrote last week that “Republicans are building an election subversion war machine.” It sure doesn’t appear that the law is going to deter them from launching an unprecedented attack on our elections.

And the ways that the potential scale of the assault will test the legal system is, in and of itself, daunting. The Brennan Center for Justice wrote, “little academic attention has been paid to the mechanics of state certification processes, leaving many in the legal community bewildered by the recent string of attacks.”

The Washington Post reported in June that “in some states, election administrators have already identified voters in each county who could serve as plaintiffs in emergency lawsuits to force county boards to certify results. In others, state administrators are sending detailed instructions to county officials laying out the limits of their power to block certification.”

It’s crucial that these plans are widely publicized. And they can be. Just like Project 2025, which was virtually unheard of and is now in the forefront of the political debate. Putting a media spotlight on this issue will force Republican officials to address what they are well aware of and are refusing to call out.

Yesterday CBS News reported Biden said in his first interview since leaving the presidential race he is “not confident at all” there will be a peaceful transfer of power if Trump loses. Harris isn’t likely to talk about this in her campaign, so it’s critical that other high-profile surrogates do. President Obama, President Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and others must educate voters about the plot underway to force more public pressure and accountability on the process.

Every Republican must be asked about local certification of elections, electors honoring the popular vote of their state, preventing political violence—all of it. Repeatedly.

As Elias told an interviewer, there are things we can do, as citizens willing to invest some time, to take action.

This isn’t a threat from abroad. This year—and likely for years to come—we will all have to continue to fight against what our fellow Americans are doing to subvert elections. Because without free elections—and facts and truth—we cannot be a free country.

We are forewarned.
_____________

[Albany Rifles]

As Pogo said with his possum wisdom "We have met the enemy and they is us."

[Ironduke]

Does JD Vance wear eyeliner?

[TopHatter]

Does JD Vance wear eyeliner?

His wife - the same one getting slammed with racist attacks from Trump's cult - says he doesn't.

[DOR]

Thanks. Always know a true economist will give a better interpretation!

Now, if only the financial markets would actually LISTEN to economists ...

[DOR]

Election deniers also hope that sowing chaos might prompt GOP legislatures to intervene—in Georgia, Arizona, or Wisconsin for example—a dangerous scenario I wrote about in April.

If Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15), and Pennsylvania (20) refuse to certify the 2024 election, that leaves 454 electoral college votes. 228 needed to win. Of those remaining states, Joe Biden took 240, the Orange Anti-Christ 214.

I can live with that.

[TopHatter]

Just a brief aside, it looks like so far Walz was a good choice.

And holy shit did Trump step in it with choosing Vance.

Still wondering how long the Harris Honeymoon is going to last though.