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2024 U.S. Election of President and Vice President

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  • DOR
    replied
    Reuters/Ipos Core Political poll conducted Oct 11-13, 2024
    Posted by Dean Baker (paywall), reposted by Brad DeLong (paywall)

    Misinformed views on Immigration, Crime, the Economy correlated with ballot choice

    Questions (correct answer in parenthesis) _ _ respondents _ _ Ballot Preference

    Violent crime rates are at or near all-time _ _ _ Correct _ _ Democrats +65%
    Highs in major American cities (False) _ _ _ _ _ False _ _ _ Republican +26%

    Inflation in the U.S. has declined over the _ _ _ Correct _ _ Democrats +53%
    last year and is near historic averages (True) _ _ _ False _ _ _ Republican +19%

    The U.S. stock market is at or near_ _ _ _ _ _ Correct _ _ Democrats +20%
    all-time highs (True) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ False _ _ _ Republican +9%

    Over the last few months, unauthorized_ _ _ _ _ Correct _ _ Democrats +59%
    Border crossings at the U.S.-Mexico _ _ _ _ _ _ _ False _ _ _ Republican +17%
    Border are at or near the lowest level in the last few years (True)

    DeLong: "Fact: those with justified true beliefs about the state of issues like crime, inflation, immigration, and the state of the stock market overwhelmingly supported Harris.
    So, did Trump voters believe lies because Trump told them to, or were they Trump voters because they believed lies? And how do Republicans – for we Democrats cannot do it, as a key part of the structure of misinformation is that nothing we say can be believed – Republicans who want a better politics and a better future educate their masters on how to understand the world, and how to decide who to believe?"

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  • Monash
    replied
    If I could double like I would!

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  • Ironduke
    replied
    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    “It’s the economy, stupid,” died this year. Good, strong growth and employment numbers right through the summer, much better than the previous administration pre-COVID. cf one of the fastest declines in the inflation rate, over a sustained period, in many decades.
    Nah, it's the economy, stupid.

    Just about everyone still thinks they're worse off, regardless of whether it's actually true or not. You can point to strong growth, employment numbers, decreases in inflation, etc. et al. til the sun comes up, still, virtually nobody thinks their circumstances have improved.

    It doesn't matter if you're right - nobody believes it, the vast majority of people have persisted in believing otherwise with regards to their personal circumstances. Facts don't matter when people go out to vote when they feel the truth is otherwise, even if they're wrong.

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  • DOR
    replied
    My thinking on the 2024 election is a work in progress.

    1. American politics has become a game of who can lie the loudest and most consistently.

    2. Foreign interference is now a normal part of American politics.

    3. “It’s the economy, stupid,” died this year. Good, strong growth and employment numbers right through the summer, much better than the previous administration pre-COVID. cf one of the fastest declines in the inflation rate, over a sustained period, in many decades.

    4. The formerly grand Old Party has fully shed patriotism in favor of party loyalty.

    5. The Supreme Court, which has been dumping credibility for years, is now more of a threat to freedoms than a protector of them.

    6. [insert your deity of choice here] save America.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bigfella
    replied
    Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
    I'm going with:

    Every democracy in the world has voted out the incumbent party in power in the last two years due to dissatisfaction with global macroeconomic trends, mostly because of increased prices and inflation.

    In other words, "it's the economy, stupid".

    Voters worldwide have punished the f-ck out of whomever was in power, whether they be conservative, liberal, or in the case of Macron, his populist centrism or whatever it's called, getting spitroasted at both ends from the far left and far right.
    I suspect you are partly correct, as I suspect most people are partly correct. There will be local factors, however, that will bear closer attention. I'm going to wait a while to draw hard conclusions.

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  • InExile
    replied
    Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
    I'm going with:

    Every democracy in the world has voted out the incumbent party in power in the last two years due to dissatisfaction with global macroeconomic trends, mostly because of increased prices and inflation.

    In other words, "it's the economy, stupid".

    Voters worldwide have punished the f-ck out of whomever was in power, whether they be conservative, liberal, or in the case of Macron, his populist centrism or whatever it's called, getting spitroasted at both ends from the far left and far right.
    Nevertheless I think the Democrats and Biden did make some unforced errors, like allowing the border situation to fester for over 3 years, coddling some woke craziness, even the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal after which Biden's approval tanked and never recovered.

    Maybe they were always going to lose, but with Trump being a uniquely loathed figure by many people, I can't help feeling that the Democrats blew a chance to defeat him for good.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ironduke
    replied
    Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
    Understandably everyone is falling over themselves with hot takes on why this has happened. While some are undoubtedly correct, all are as much a reflection of that person's beliefs as of anything that has actually happened. It will take maybe a few months and a lot of digging into data before we know the full story of what has happened. Even then working out exactly why is going to be hit and miss.

    I'm going to wait a bit.
    I'm going with:

    Every democracy in the world has voted out the incumbent party in power in the last two years due to dissatisfaction with global macroeconomic trends, mostly because of increased prices and inflation.

    In other words, "it's the economy, stupid".

    Voters worldwide have punished the f-ck out of whomever was in power, whether they be conservative, liberal, or in the case of Macron, his populist centrism or whatever it's called, getting spitroasted at both ends from the far left and far right.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 08 Nov 24,, 00:02.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ironduke
    replied
    Originally posted by zraver View Post

    Kind of misleading. Overall Trump will end up with around 1 million fewer votes in 24 than he got in 20. His increased percentages appear to be a reflection of Democrats staying home. Harris will end up with 11-12 million fewer votes than Biden. The Right did not turn out in record numbers, the Left stayed home.
    If you mean Trump's increased percentages are misleading, I agree. They indeed don't seem to be the result of Trump getting more votes, but a result of Dems not turning out.

    Trump matched his 2020 performance in the popular vote, Harris is hard down from Biden's 2020 total.

    BTW, 40% of the California vote is uncounted. Trump will slightly exceed his 2020 popular vote total, there are likely about ~4 million Harris votes and ~2.5 million Trump votes uncounted as of yet. Final numbers will be closer to 75.5 million to 72 million. That is still a relatively small improvement (+1.5 million) from Trump's 2020 numbers, and Harris is still down ~9 million from Biden's 2020 totals.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 07 Nov 24,, 23:55.

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  • Bigfella
    replied
    Understandably everyone is falling over themselves with hot takes on why this has happened. While some are undoubtedly correct, all are as much a reflection of that person's beliefs as of anything that has actually happened. It will take maybe a few months and a lot of digging into data before we know the full story of what has happened. Even then working out exactly why is going to be hit and miss.

    I'm going to wait a bit.

    Leave a comment:


  • statquo
    replied
    Originally posted by rj1 View Post
    Also, I think Kamala Harris should bear more blame in this, but rest in peace to Joe Biden's positive reputation among partisan Democrats.
    I don't even put the blame on either of them. This was a rebuke of identity politics. The Dems need to stop pandering to college kids and being afraid of offending tiny margins of their coalition rather than calling out common sense that the vast majority of the country across political lines agree with. Regular people don't talk in pronouns and quite frankly don't care about the apparent plight of all "oppressed" minorities that just happen to not be white men. You can't gaslight and hold morality tests at selling points for people to vote for you. Even reading the aftermath of the loss across different boards, apparently 70+ million Americans are redneck, racist, homophobic, transphobic, mysogynistic and have a persecution complex because they are afraid of social change. Well guess what, most of those people aren't. And as adult to adult, if someone is going to call me any of those words, why would I like you, nevertheless vote the same way as you? Why should my priorities come second or third or 10th to yours? How do you know I'm voting against my best interest? They're so condescending and pretentious and are just so unlikeable. Moreso than Trump supporters. And people looked at the two and picked MAGA.

    The college vote is not reliable. In fact their issues in a lot of cases are political poison. The Dems should be distancing themselves from most of them and quite frankly the hammer should come down on college campuses. Trump made huge gains across every identity group and age category. That's all the proof you need that identity politics isn't working.

    Leave a comment:


  • InExile
    replied
    Originally posted by rj1 View Post
    Also, I think Kamala Harris should bear more blame in this, but rest in peace to Joe Biden's positive reputation among partisan Democrats.
    I don't think there is anything Harris could have done differently to win.

    On the other hand if Biden had not tried to run for re-election, allowing the Dems to have a primary, maybe a Gretchen Whitmer/ Josh Shapiro ticket might have had a chance in atleast the Blue wall states.

    Leave a comment:


  • rj1
    replied
    Also, I think Kamala Harris should bear more blame in this, but rest in peace to Joe Biden's positive reputation among partisan Democrats.

    Leave a comment:


  • rj1
    replied
    Originally posted by InExile View Post

    I think if the Dems keep their heads down, keep their opposition strategic, unlike Trump's first time with some hysteria over Russian collusion and woke/BLM craziness, the inevitable chaos of Trump's administration, his bad instincts of starting trade wars, gutting the Government of expertise, running up debt even more to unsustainable levels, maybe even trying to interfere with the Federal Reserve, I think the Dems will have thumping victories both in 2026 and 2028.
    The one difference from Trump's first term is he won't have a hostile Congress inside his own party.

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  • rj1
    replied
    Originally posted by Monash View Post
    It's going to be interesting to see how the Democratic Party comes back from this disaster. What direction do they take policy? And where is the new talent/leadership they so obviously need?

    Leaning further to the 'left' of politics seems (at least to me) to be a non-starter because it alienates too much of middle American. But if they instead opt for a more 'centrist' position? Does that mean they automatically alienate more left wing leaning Americans who then start shifting their allegiance to other, ultimately unelectable left parties like the Greens.?
    Taking in my share of post-mortems, most everyone agrees the party is too catered to the interests of college-educated voters at the expense of everyone else.

    The question you ask though is literally what happened with Gaza. Jill Stein in Dearborn which is Arab-American Central got more than 20%.

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  • rj1
    replied
    Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
    I'd be curious to know how much Trump increased the number of votes he got in various places in absolute numbers, not percentages. Trump is on track to win the popular vote in the 2024 election having received roughly the same number he lost the 2020 election with (74mil each in both elections), while Harris will be down +-10 million from Biden's 2020 popular vote total (81 mil down to ~70mil).

    Numbers are not final yet because California cannot run an election and will be steadily adding votes for the next month.

    Leave a comment:

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