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2024 U.S. Election of President and Vice President

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  • Monash
    replied
    Originally posted by omon View Post
    Have you ever wondered why we never supported Ukraine enough to win? Or why Ukraine still allows Russian oil and gas to be pumped thru pipeline in Ukraine to Slovakia, and Hungary, and gets paid by Russia for doing so? Wouldn't it make more sense for Ukraine to block it?
    Russia is only supplying about 9% of the gas it formally supplied to Western Europe prior to the start of the war. All of it via the pipeline you just mentioned. Which co-incidentally is being closed at the end of this year because the contract all countries involved (including Russia and Ukraine) signed prior to the war for gas deliveries through it comes to an end then. At that point Russian gas sales to Europe drop to zero unless something radically changes. For that matter this particular supply only continued because the central European nations who were using this gas weren't well positioned at the start of the war to obtain supplies from elsewhere. That situation has now changed. Western Europe no longer needs Russian gas because its signed long term contracts with other providers and built the infrastructure to store &/or distribute it.

    The US never supported Ukraine to the fullest capacity it could have because the Biden Administration (rightly or wrongly) it was worried about the risk of escalation with Russia. It's NATO allies? Having under-spent on defense for decades simply didn't have the capacity to do much more than they have (a situation that is now slowly changing thanks to the invasion). Taking all that into consideration and in hindsight? IMO deliveries of munitions and systems could have occurred at a much faster rate but that's all in the past now. The pipeline in question? Stayed open because of a lack of alternatives and because it still suited all sides to let it remain so. Russia got paid for it's gas deliveries, Ukraine placated EU members who couldn't easily get their hands on supplies from elsewhere Hungary etc got the gas they needed. (Added to which Hungary was and still is the only EU member nation even remotely pro-Krelmin and as such was and is Putin's 'useful idiot'). But the pipeline IS closing now! So no sinister conspiracy involved, just an overabundance of caution on the Democrats side and necessity on the other.
    Last edited by Monash; 21 Nov 24,, 07:16.

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  • Amled
    replied
    The Donbass and Crimea for certain.
    Maybe Putin will be willing to make an "arrangement" for the territory along the Black Sea, for the Kursk salient!

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  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    Move on from Ukraine?
    It's a done deal. Even Zelensky said peace is faster under Trump. The question is how much territory would Kiev give up.

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  • omon
    replied
    Have you ever wondered why we never supported Ukraine enough to win? Or why Ukraine still allows Russian oil and gas to be pumped thru pipeline in Ukraine to Slovakia, and Hungary, and gets paid by Russia for doing so? Wouldn't it make more sense for Ukraine to block it?
    Last edited by omon; 17 Nov 24,, 15:13.

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  • zraver
    replied
    Originally posted by 667medic View Post
    I voted Trump because


    4) We need to move on from Ukraine. Russians will fight this out for eternity. Ukrainians need to be nudged to give concessions and stop the dying.
    Move on from Ukraine?

    Russia can't fight this out forever. Even with our miserly help Russia has been forced to pay a terrible butchers bill. Had/if we really support Ukraine, Russia will lose.

    A Russia gutted by a failed war is not a regional threat to NATO or Russia's non-NATO neighbors.

    A Western alliance that stands strong and robust on Ukraine forces Xi to measure his moves. China is a growing threat and we are entering the Davidson Window. By ourselves our chances are not nearly as good as with our Pacific allies and that alliance pales to what a true Western alliance can bring to bear especially if the US, UK, and France are all free from having to worry about a Russian maritime or air threat. Keeping the alliances intact keeps China (and Iran) in the inferior position.

    Russia is China's cats paw, there is a reason Putin went to Xi before the invasions of both Georgia and Ukraine. The two are not seperate issues but part of a greater threat to the West than either are individually.

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  • omon
    replied
    Originally posted by 667medic View Post
    I voted Trump because

    1) I was sick of the woke politics and pandering to a minuscule minority.

    2) I don't like to be preached by college kids who think they know it all. I have a PhD and 20 years of work experience, plus I am a family man with 2 kids. I know a little bit more about life than what these kids think I know of.

    3) Kamala Harris was chosen as a Vice President because Biden wanted a black female, I certainly wasn't voting for her to fulfill some BS DEI criteria, especially when she didn't even go through a primary.

    4) We need to move on from Ukraine. Russians will fight this out for eternity. Ukrainians need to be nudged to give concessions and stop the dying.

    5) Iran needs to be dealt with an iron hand.

    6) Trump's 2nd term should give the Dems ample time to reflect and purge the part of woke ideology and return to common sense.


    If the Dems don't clean up their act, I will be voting for Vance in 2028.
    Absolutely, but that is just a small list why I voted for the man. here is more

    https://nypost.com/2024/11/15/us-new...j-hit-and-run/

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/migrants-...-city-released

    Also as this election showed, there are no blue states, just blue cities

    Leave a comment:


  • DOR
    replied
    Originally posted by Versus View Post

    Not likely, you will see demand drop but prices will continue to rise and than some products and services will vanish for good. A very very rough road ahead for all of us.
    I don't know what that means.

    Leave a comment:


  • Versus
    replied
    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    I’m not sure what it is about inflation – as opposed to a specific, set price point – that you don’t understand.
    Inflation is not the consumer price index; rather, it is how the price measure changes over time.

    If prices stay the same, that means supply and demand are exactly matched. Given that such a thing only ever happens by accident (coincidence), the logical approach is to keep prices moving, a little bit. Not too much in either direction.

    If prices fall, as the “don’t tell me inflation is slower, tell me the cost of living is lower,” crowd seems to want, we would be in a deflationary trend. That happens when demand vanishes to such a degree that sellers are forced to cut prices in order to make sales. Because of human nature, prolonged and widespread price cuts would heavily encourage us to wait until the price is even lower. That’s the deadly deflationary spiral.

    The opposite is mild inflation. When prices rise a bit (say, 2%), we are encouraged to make purchases when we need something, and not to delay too long. That keeps retailers ordering more, which keeps wholesalers on their toes, which keeps producers producing. In other words, economic growth.
    Not likely, you will see demand drop but prices will continue to rise and than some products and services will vanish for good. A very very rough road ahead for all of us.

    Leave a comment:


  • 667medic
    replied
    I voted Trump because

    1) I was sick of the woke politics and pandering to a minuscule minority.

    2) I don't like to be preached by college kids who think they know it all. I have a PhD and 20 years of work experience, plus I am a family man with 2 kids. I know a little bit more about life than what these kids think I know of.

    3) Kamala Harris was chosen as a Vice President because Biden wanted a black female, I certainly wasn't voting for her to fulfill some BS DEI criteria, especially when she didn't even go through a primary.

    4) We need to move on from Ukraine. Russians will fight this out for eternity. Ukrainians need to be nudged to give concessions and stop the dying.

    5) Iran needs to be dealt with an iron hand.

    6) Trump's 2nd term should give the Dems ample time to reflect and purge the part of woke ideology and return to common sense.


    If the Dems don't clean up their act, I will be voting for Vance in 2028.

    Leave a comment:


  • Versus
    replied
    The ADHD measures applied by this upcoming administration are either really bold moves or total childish fantasy. We here are used to such displays of omni potent big dick macho man father of the nation, the boss,the alpha male narcissistic grandiosity plans that promise thunder but deliver whimpers, Problem is that we don't have resources for such things but US does. If they accomplish only 1 percent of the announced or promised that can be considered as something. Trimming the budget fat is a good thing and it seems that, if they are serious in their efforts, this will be an radical liposuction.

    Leave a comment:


  • DOR
    replied
    We need a thread for whack-o crazy cabinet nominations...

    Leave a comment:


  • jlvfr
    replied
    El Presidente sacking generals.. where did I see this before?...

    Leave a comment:


  • DOR
    replied

    I’m not sure what it is about inflation – as opposed to a specific, set price point – that you don’t understand.
    Inflation is not the consumer price index; rather, it is how the price measure changes over time.

    If prices stay the same, that means supply and demand are exactly matched. Given that such a thing only ever happens by accident (coincidence), the logical approach is to keep prices moving, a little bit. Not too much in either direction.

    If prices fall, as the “don’t tell me inflation is slower, tell me the cost of living is lower,” crowd seems to want, we would be in a deflationary trend. That happens when demand vanishes to such a degree that sellers are forced to cut prices in order to make sales. Because of human nature, prolonged and widespread price cuts would heavily encourage us to wait until the price is even lower. That’s the deadly deflationary spiral.

    The opposite is mild inflation. When prices rise a bit (say, 2%), we are encouraged to make purchases when we need something, and not to delay too long. That keeps retailers ordering more, which keeps wholesalers on their toes, which keeps producers producing. In other words, economic growth.

    Leave a comment:


  • rj1
    replied
    The inflation argument to me from people trying to point to "IT'S DOWN! IT'S NO LONGER AN ISSUE." is politicians spreading bullsh*t but also demonstrates how people simply don't understand inflation. I'd expect better from DeLong but I guess he's being more political than fiscal. A Libertarian friend of mine had a good example on Facebook of the problem, responding to the question:

    "Can someone please explain to me in crayon how "inflation keeps going down," but we continue to live in the most expensive timeline of our lifetime?"

    Answer:

    "I used to weight 200.

    In 2020 I gained 5 lb.
    In 2021 I gained 11.
    In 2022 I gained 9.
    In 2023 I gained 6.
    This year only 3 lb.

    So my weight gain is down. But now I weight 234?"

    Inflation is not a static position thing. It's a first-order derivative, i.e. think of it like the velocity of a car. Disinflation going down does not mean prices going down, it's means prices are going up less. To get prices going down, we would need deflation which pretty much no one in power wants. Meanwhile, the inflation that has happened the past 5 years, and if a family's prices of everything has gone up 25% in that time, the heads of household in this simplified analysis need to have their income have gone up 25% over the same time just to stay even and in the same spot they were 5 years ago. Just because inflation slowed down now does not mean the people that have experienced inflation the past few years are out of economic trouble.

    The Federal Reserve historically has always wanted a 2% inflation rate. A 2% inflation rate means that you to just stay still economically speaking - not getting further ahead, not getting further behind - you would need to double your salary every 35 years. So under a theoretical constant 2%, $100k now would equal $50k in 1989 and $200k in the year 2059. With how everything is going, Western central banks around the world look like they're going to shoot for 3% because national debts and bills around the world are all very high. Under a 3% inflation rate, $100k now would equal $281k in 2059. The year of doubling would decrease from 35 years to 24 years, so under 3% $100k now would equal $200k in 2048. Bear that all in mind when you get pay raises at work.

    All that said, inflation is going back up. Trump wants lower interest rates so people and businesses can buy stuff on credit again and that's going to shoot up prices again. Trump economically is a Democrat. That's what the Democrats have been pushing for too is lower interest rates. Powell might provide resistance, how long that lasts we'll see.

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  • InExile
    replied
    Originally posted by DOR View Post

    DeLong: "Fact: those with justified true beliefs about the state of issues like crime, inflation, immigration, and the state of the stock market overwhelmingly supported Harris.
    So, did Trump voters believe lies because Trump told them to, or were they Trump voters because they believed lies? And how do Republicans – for we Democrats cannot do it, as a key part of the structure of misinformation is that nothing we say can be believed – Republicans who want a better politics and a better future educate their masters on how to understand the world, and how to decide who to believe?"[/FONT][/SIZE]
    The advantage that the Republicans and the right wing have are the Propaganda networks on cable, talk radio and podcasts. These networks spread lies and false information on a daily basis to millions of Americans who get their news only from these sources.

    While mainstream sources may have a slight liberal bias, they remain objective and do not broadcast outright lies. So the flaws of Biden, Harris and Walz were beaten to death by both right wing and mainstream media, while Trump got a completely free pass from his side. In normal circumstances trying to overturn the results of an election should be automatically disqualifying in a democracy, but the right wing networks have spent the past four years lying about it, minimizing it, falsely making comparisons with what Democrats did in the past, so its easy for many or most Republican voters to dismiss it entirely.

    I don't see any solution for this in the short term, given the perverse incentives of huge profits, audience capture etc. Eventually reality catches up with falsehoods, but it might take a long time and lot of damage to the country in the meantime.

    Leave a comment:

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