2024 U.S. Election of President and Vice President

[Versus]

The main issue, at least to my knowledge and based on what I saw and experienced during my stay in the US is the disbalance between speculative capital and real value capital. Simply once the speculative money and speculative money generation pushes out the real value money and capital, things are done.I mean, Boeing is the prime example of that practice. Throwing out real engineers and replacing them with managers. But don't thing that US is an exception, Russia was the same,Europe too. Serbia also. The system is so clogged with those unproductive, fictional positions and practices that it collapses onto itself. It's inevitable. The only way to solve this is dramatic. Russia chose war in order to trim the fat. Others, well I think the diet will be imposed.

[Versus]

As per Wikipedia,
Peak oil was introduced as a concept in 1956, and with a target date in the 1965-71 timespan. In 1972, predictions targeted 2000. By 1985 (when production was 1/3^rd of what it is now), that had stretched to 2020. In 1999, 2060.

I am an economist, and I can see the pattern: Pick a date a long ways down the road. When that date approaches, pick another, further away. Never, ever, consider anything that might reduce demand (e.g., efficiency) or expand production (fracking, anyone?).
Rinse and repeat.

Well, according to the info I had, it happened in June 2004, in 2008 we had Global economic meltdown and creation of plank protection team. Meanwhile we had invasion of Iraq which was about oil among other things. Than we had a shale oil boom that delayed the peak consequences further. There was an interview with the EU energy sector something something whom said that if the solution isn't found until 2019 we are basically screwed and than we had COVID. Coincidence or not, conspiracy or not, I leave that to others to judge but I think that it is safe to say that since 2019 globalism and global economy is reversing. Ukraine and Middle East are just a catalyst for these events.
Don't panic so much about Trump, nothing serious will change. Yeah there will be blunder and thunder but more or less, things will remain the same. The system is incapable of change so...no biggy. This is all a show anyhow that repeats itself over and over again. I am just sad that I wasn't able to finish the autopsy thread in time of Ukraine, there you would see that this what is happening now is just a carbon copy of those events.
If my prediction is right, there will be another market crash, somewhere at the end of February 2025 or early March, possibility of inflation going to hyperinflation is severe and that as a last ditch measure they will move to digital currency. Ukraine will calm down while Middle East will erupt. From there the conflict will move to Pacific and there the showdown will happen. After that the world will be divided into three or four economic zones that will be more or less self sufficient and will trade among themselves with very little trade between these blocks.World will be changed and fall back to the previous version that will ultimately lead to the reemergence of some form of feudalism and religious narratives and over few decades modernity will fade away into oblivion.

Everything is just one big gigantic waste of time,energy and resources. Its all a farce.

[Monash]

Be careful, NATO estimates are given in ranges. The range is 500K to 700K and the confidence is low that this range is anything near accurate. The media tends to concentrate on the max figure for propaganda purposes.

Yep, I went back and saw I'd got my guesstimate of walking wounded ass about. Point is though there's no doubt Russia has had to eat some serious losses in this war in terms of both arms and equipment and manpower.

[DOR]

Peak Oil is a lot more complicated than just rising gas prices. It is a such a colossal cluster of problems that self reinforce in a loop and all that is happening now points into that direction. I am not an economist but I can feel big things coming our way.

As per Wikipedia,
Peak oil was introduced as a concept in 1956, and with a target date in the 1965-71 timespan. In 1972, predictions targeted 2000. By 1985 (when production was 1/3^rd of what it is now), that had stretched to 2020. In 1999, 2060.

I am an economist, and I can see the pattern: Pick a date a long ways down the road. When that date approaches, pick another, further away. Never, ever, consider anything that might reduce demand (e.g., efficiency) or expand production (fracking, anyone?).
Rinse and repeat.

[Officer of Engineers]

Be careful, NATO estimates are given in ranges. The range is 500K to 700K and the confidence is low that this range is anything near accurate. The media tends to concentrate on the max figure for propaganda purposes.

[Monash]

Confidence is low about any realistic estimate of casualties

The 700,000 figure quoted by Zraver is the best estimate NATO powers have come up with. But that figure is for ALL casualties from deaths to minor injuries. The best (conservative estimates I've seen for Russian KIA is 100 to 120 thousand (probably closer to the later than the former). That leaves aprox non-fatal 580,000 casualties of all types. IMO? A 1:5 death to injury rate is not unrealistic given the type of fighting Russian solders are fighting in Ukraine. It;'s still waaay higher than any NATO military would consider acceptable but well Putin!

Where I disagree with Zraver is his suggestion that most of those injured would be permanently out of the war. Unfortunately this is unlikely to be true given that figure will include all types of casualties i.e anything from accidents and injuries such as vehicle rollovers to falling into a trench at night breaking a collar bone to illnesses like phenomena due to exposure while serving in the front lines in winter. Russia has also had plenty of time to get it's combat medical services into a 'fit for purpose' state despite what little evidence I've seen suggesting they were no better prepared than the rest of the army at the start of the war. All of that being the case? You would have to assume that a goodly proportion of those almost 600,000 or so casualties (at least a two thirds?) could be returned to combat if needed. And Putin does need them. That still leaves up to +/- 200,000 or so injured Russians on top of the 100 to 120,000 or so dead out of the war permanently.

[Versus]

You said (prior to my “I don’t know what that means,”),
“you will see demand drop but prices will continue to rise”

OK, in a supply chain disruption scenario, but only for a limited amount of time.
After that, there either isn’t any more supply to price, or there aren’t any more buyers to set a price.

That a far cry from “the past and current economic models and price findings and all that jazz do not work anymore."

Pull out your wallet. If you have any cash or credit / debit cards, try to buy something.
If you can, then you’re wrong. If you can’t, you’re in a war zone.



“Peak Oil … [*takes a long drag on a short cigarette*] … haven’t heard that phrase since West Texas was shifting for $94-98 a barrel, about 35-40% more than it was 15 minutes ago.”

Peak Oil is a lot more complicated than just rising gas prices. It is a such a colossal cluster of problems that self reinforce in a loop and all that is happening now points into that direction. I am not an economist but I can feel big things coming our way.

[Officer of Engineers]

Likely the most lopsided campaign of the modern era. Russia has suffered north of 700k battle losses, lost thousands of AFVs, seen close to a million men flee Russia to avoid conscription. Many of those 700k are permanent losses: dead or disabling injuries and all 900-1million men who fled are gone forever. Thats about 1% of Russia's entire population gone. That inferior kit and ill training is stacking bodies that will have societal impact in Russia for decades.

Confidence is low about any realistic estimate of casualties

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/w...s-ukraine.html

The Pentagon previously said that it had estimated Russian (as well as Ukrainian) losses based on a variety of sources that included satellite imagery, communication intercepts, government statements, social media posts and news articles. U.S. officials note the resulting numbers are “low confidence assessments.”

Military analysts and statisticians said the lack of transparency, and the catchall nature of Western estimates of Russian casualties, made them, at best, an unreliable snapshot of the war.

[zraver]

You mean the map where Belarus was to be attacked by Ukraine from 4 different directions? That is pretty much the only thing he wanted to show, yet he never actually showed it. You can not believe anything this clown said. If taking Ukraine was in the plan, why would they abandon the idea? I mean they still pressing in other regions, they seem to have enough equipment and soldiers, but not one soldier is sent to the north. why?
Does not really matter what our weapons are, Russia seems to do ok with their inferior weapons and ill trained soldiers. This war showed it is much better to have 5 tanks that cost 1 mil, than 1 tank that costs 5. Russia and its allies is outproducing NATO as far as ammo, they make more 122 and 152. than all nato makes 155. Why would anyone start a war if Russia nuked their own cities?
As far as initial resistance being successful, they need to thank Trump, he is the one that supplied Javelins, before the war, no one was willing to send anything back then. Germany was split on sending helmets, lol. And the fact that FSB completely failed, by believing they will encounter no resistance, kremlin boy Medvedchuk assured them people will greet them with flowers, Large portion of OPZZH party was Moscow installed puppets, who took money and supplied false intel.

Russian production has peaked and is likely to fall. Much of Russia's production was refurbishment of Soviet era kit, ammo and weapons. Those depots are running dry now hence the need to import from places like North Korea. Even that is a finite source and recent DPRK 170mm Koksans have been seen moving into Russia indicating a shortage of 122/152mm ammunition from the DPRK and the need to either supply Russian or DPRK units with the 170mm system. Russia has a small population, much of its work force is already engaged in war time production and there simply is not a lot of slack in the man power pool. Also Russia has recently turned to money printing and skyrocketing interest rates to finance the war effort. The civilian economy is especially outside the Moscow and St. Petersburg metro areas is groaning.21-23% interest rates on a mortgage....

NATO production on the other hand is on the upswing and will be steadily increasing. There is a backlog of arms orders that will last for years and will keep those taps open and flowing.

Finally the seems to be doing Ok with inferior weapons... 5:1 and all that. NO, just no.

In 91 using roughly the same kit we are supplying Ukraine now (plus air power) the US and its allies slammed into the Iraqis using roughly the same equipment the Russians are using now. It was a rout. Likely the most lopsided campaign of the modern era. Russia has suffered north of 700k battle losses, lost thousands of AFVs, seen close to a million men flee Russia to avoid conscription. Many of those 700k are permanent losses: dead or disabling injuries and all 900-1million men who fled are gone forever. Thats about 1% of Russia's entire population gone. That inferior kit and ill training is stacking bodies that will have societal impact in Russia for decades.

[DOR]

It means that the past and current economic models and price findings and all that jazz do not work anymore. After three years, there is not a shadow of a doubt in my mind about this whole ordeal (Ukraine,Middle East and the upcoming Pacific showdown) that the main driving force behind all of these events is a Peak Oil and the fact that no one, and by no one I mean both West and the East has done NOTHING to solve the problem in a sustainable way.

You said (prior to my “I don’t know what that means,”),
“you will see demand drop but prices will continue to rise”

OK, in a supply chain disruption scenario, but only for a limited amount of time.
After that, there either isn’t any more supply to price, or there aren’t any more buyers to set a price.

That a far cry from “the past and current economic models and price findings and all that jazz do not work anymore."

Pull out your wallet. If you have any cash or credit / debit cards, try to buy something.
If you can, then you’re wrong. If you can’t, you’re in a war zone.



“Peak Oil … [*takes a long drag on a short cigarette*] … haven’t heard that phrase since West Texas was shifting for $94-98 a barrel, about 35-40% more than it was 15 minutes ago.”

[Officer of Engineers]

We have never given Ukraine enough support to win and then pressured them into a disastrous counter-offensive at least 2 years before it was fully cooked and ready to serve.

That was Zelensky. Western militaries, especially Gen Miley, never thought the Ukrainians were ready, describing that year's offensive as was going to be long and was going to be bloody. Gen Miley never thought the Ukrainians were able to run circles around Russian defensive lines.

More than European capitals, Zelensky had to prove to his people that the UKR was still in fhe fight. All those promises of a renewed offensive was spoken to mainly Ukrainian media. I agree there was a desire from Western capitals to see an offensive but the pressure came from the Ukrainian population more than anything else.

As for China, Russia is and has been China's cats paw. She is the junior partner and at this point is a wholly owned subsidiary of China inc. Though given how much Russia owes China and how much historical Chinese territory exists under the flag of the Third Russian Empire and Czar Putin I, I may see some maps redrawn in a way that doesn't enrage me.

I would not bet on it. The tensions between the Russian fears of the Hordes (Tartar) of the East and Chinese memories of the Unequal Treaties are still there. The fundamental conflicting interests have not gone away. There's not 20 year difference between the Korean War and the Sino-Soviet War and the Chinese DO NOT give as much aide as the Soviets did during the Korean War.

There WILL be Russian resentment for the lack of substantial Chinese help to Russia. Hell, North Korea dwarfs China and Iran combined and even that is paltry compared to Soviet aide during the Korean War. In the end Slavic and Han racism will collide again.

[Versus]

I don't know what that means.

It means that the past and current economic models and price findings and all that jazz do not work anymore. After three years, there is not a shadow of a doubt in my mind about this whole ordeal (Ukraine,Middle East and the upcoming Pacific showdown) that the main driving force behind all of these events is a Peak Oil and the fact that no one, and by no one I mean both West and the East has done NOTHING to solve the problem in a sustainable way.

[omon]

You mean the map where Belarus was to be attacked by Ukraine from 4 different directions? That is pretty much the only thing he wanted to show, yet he never actually showed it. You can not believe anything this clown said. If taking Ukraine was in the plan, why would they abandon the idea? I mean they still pressing in other regions, they seem to have enough equipment and soldiers, but not one soldier is sent to the north. why?
Does not really matter what our weapons are, Russia seems to do ok with their inferior weapons and ill trained soldiers. This war showed it is much better to have 5 tanks that cost 1 mil, than 1 tank that costs 5. Russia and its allies is outproducing NATO as far as ammo, they make more 122 and 152. than all nato makes 155. Why would anyone start a war if Russia nuked their own cities?
As far as initial resistance being successful, they need to thank Trump, he is the one that supplied Javelins, before the war, no one was willing to send anything back then. Germany was split on sending helmets, lol. And the fact that FSB completely failed, by believing they will encounter no resistance, kremlin boy Medvedchuk assured them people will greet them with flowers, Large portion of OPZZH party was Moscow installed puppets, who took money and supplied false intel.

[zraver]

When someone is trying to wipe you off the map, it is not really the time to think about options of other countries especially when they are your enemy's allies, (orban), Ukraine has been doing it for duration of entire war. Something tells me Putin is not after taking entire Ukraine, contrary to what his propaganda machine saying, and Zelensky knows it.
The reason we did not help enough is pretty obvious, it has nothing to do with escalation, but we can not let Ukraine win, (as in Ukrainian flag on the top of kremlin) we can not allow Russia to fall apart, we do not need Russia to align with China too tight. we need intact Russia more than we need Ukraine.

Something tells you wrong. Lukashenko of Belarus gave away the store early in the war when he showed Russian plans and troops movements. The goal was Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa. At best Western Ukraine around Lviv would be left. We have never given Ukraine enough support to win and then pressured them into a disastrous counter-offensive at least 2 years before it was fully cooked and ready to serve.

Still despite that Ukraine has managed to inflict massive losses in men and material on Russia. It was never about managing escalation; it was about imbeciles running our foreign policy. If it was about managed escalation Biden would not now a year late be OK'ing deep strikes in Russia. He (or the Sully and Blinken show) is now trying to poison the well before Trump gets into office. Where is is the fear of escalation? It was never real. Russia occupies the inferior position strategically. She always has. Her nuclear arms levels were set by a treaty between the US and USSR. Russia is big but she is not USSR big. She is a rump state of a fallen empire and nothing makes this as plain as a population density map. The US has weapons designed to deter the USSR but has massively fewer targets to aim them at.

Our weapons are more accurate, have better and more varied delivery systems, Russia does not have a functioning EW system, the prevailing winds are against Russia etc. Putin is not going to nuke St. Petersburg and Moscow which is what him starting a nuclear war would result in. It was always chest thumping to scare the weak willed and fearful. As for China, Russia is and has been China's cats paw. She is the junior partner and at this point is a wholly owned subsidiary of China inc. Though given how much Russia owes China and how much historical Chinese territory exists under the flag of the Third Russian Empire and Czar Putin I, I may see some maps redrawn in a way that doesn't enrage me.

[omon]

When someone is trying to wipe you off the map, it is not really the time to think about options of other countries especially when they are your enemy's allies, (orban), Ukraine has been doing it for duration of entire war. Something tells me Putin is not after taking entire Ukraine, contrary to what his propaganda machine saying, and Zelensky knows it.
The reason we did not help enough is pretty obvious, it has nothing to do with escalation, but we can not let Ukraine win, (as in Ukrainian flag on the top of kremlin) we can not allow Russia to fall apart, we do not need Russia to align with China too tight. we need intact Russia more than we need Ukraine.