2024 U.S. election of President and Vice President

[TopHatter]

I don't know if you can say he delivered them to Trump. Who else were they going to vote for? The Constitution Party are not a thing in most states. Right to Life locally where I live are grassroots politics powerful and they fell behind Trump post-primary simply due to they didn't want Hillary Clinton to appoint Supreme Court justices.

Delivery is too strong a word, you're right.

It's not so much "Who else were they going to vote for?" as "This man is a moral cesspool that brags about sexually assaulting women....as a supposed Christian, how can I bring myself to show up at the polls and check the box for him?"

Two spoonful's of sugar that helped that medicine go down:

1. A fellow Christian fundo on the ticket as Vice President
2. Trump's promise to appoint judges to overturn Roe v. Wade.

I'll say that it was clearly Number 2 that do most of the heavy lifting, along with your point about Hillary Clinton appointing justices. But having a man like Pence on the ticket was a definitely a security blanket for to keep them feeling warm and safe inside.

I don't know if it's desperate to have them as allies more than they just want Trump to win and are seeking to eliminate a contender. Trump's not playing 2nd fiddle to anyone in any alliance, and that's not unique to Trump, a lot of politicians have that mentality. DeSantis is clearly flanking Trump on issues and he's held up best so far of people that can challenge Trump in a primary and have a chance at winning.

Whoever the "not Trump" candidate is going to be that is last one remaining in the primary, it's going to be Trumpish on certain items. Republican primary voters are not voting for Larry Hogan, who has acknowledged reality and said he won't run, so good on him for not doing it out of personal vanity. So think about what the Republican alternative to Trump is that has a chance of winning.

This is admittedly anecdotal, but all of the Trump voters that I've talked to or read about online have all enthused to one degree or another, in one way or another, about "Trump/DeSantis".

They see DeSantis as heir apparent to the MAGA throne, but the thought of regicide is enough to make their heads explode.

We also have 10 months until polls actually matter and a lot can change.

Oh absolutely. In political terms, 10 months might as well be 10 years.

[rj1]

Delivery is too strong a word, you're right.

It's not so much "Who else were they going to vote for?" as "This man is a moral cesspool that brags about sexually assaulting women....as a supposed Christian, how can I bring myself to show up at the polls and check the box for him?"

It's politics. You can be a hypocrite voting for a corrupt scoundrel or you can be principled like me which leads to you losing by 70 points. It's not a game that rewards standing up for what's right. Democrats the past week of have had to swallow the Biden administration bailing out banks by giving out loans treating bonds at par which is ridiculous and approved an oil development project in Alaska. Most people vote not for what they want but what they dislike the least.

[TopHatter]

Ron DeSantis Is Asked If He'd Be Donald Trump's Vice President. His Answer Is Telling.



Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis hasn’t announced if he’s running against Donald Trump for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024, but he indicated Thursday he would not be Trump’s vice-presidential running mate.

Asked by Newsmax’s Eric Bolling if he would consider joining the Trump ticket, DeSantis said:

“I think I am probably more of an executive guy. I think that you want to be able to do things. That’s part of the reason I got into this job, is because we have action. We’re able to make things happen, and I think that’s probably what I’m best suited for.”

DeSantis and Trump have emerged as Republican favorites in the GOP race. Hostilities between the two have risen lately.

DeSantis ticked off Trump by saying he personally would not know how to pay “hush money” to a “porn star.” The comment was construed as a snarky nod to the Stormy Daniels payoff case that threatens Trump with an indictment.

Meanwhile Trump, who has been calling the governor “Ron DeSanctimonious” and recently added “Ron DeSoros” to his nicknames, retaliated with a screenshot spreading an unfounded rumor that DeSantis drank with underage girls as a high school teacher.
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Cult45 cognitive dissonance just exploded like a bag of flaming dog shit...

[TopHatter]

Ron DeSantis' donors and allies question if he's ready for 2024




WASHINGTON — Ron DeSantis may be missing his moment.

A number of the Florida governor’s donors and allies are worried his recent stumbles suggest he may not be ready for a brutal fight against Donald Trump. Some feel DeSantis needs to accelerate his timeline to run for the GOP presidential nomination and begin directly confronting Trump if he's to have any chance of thwarting the former president’s momentum. Others believe DeSantis should sidestep Trump altogether and wait until 2028 to run.

At a Sunday luncheon following the annual Red Cross ball in Palm Beach, Florida, a group of 16 prominent Republicans, described by one attendee as a mix of DeSantis backers and Trump "skeptics," discussed misgivings about the governor's standing for the future if he tussles with the former president.

“They liked him — many of them might even support him,” the person who was at the event said of DeSantis. “But they thought on balance that his long-term future was better without him trying to take Trump head on.”

“He will get scarred up” by Trump, the person added.

Then there’s conservative billionaire shipping goods magnate Richard Uihlein and his wife, Elizabeth, whose $500,000 in combined contributions ranked them among the most generous donors to DeSantis’ 2022 re-election campaign.

A person familiar with the strategy around Uihlein’s spending said that right now, “The brakes are pumped,” adding, “The polling really made different people pause.”

A spokesperson for the Uihleins declined to comment.

The fears of some of his own supporters, along with a growing sentiment among GOP operatives that Trump may be impossible to defeat — even with a possible indictment looming over him — present DeSantis with the conundrum of trying to demonstrate that he is a viable presidential candidate before he even launches his anticipated campaign.

NBC News spoke with more than 20 GOP strategists, politicians and donors about whether DeSantis can bounce back from adversity — some of it self-inflicted, some of it the result of constant pressure from Trump — or is destined to wilt under the white-hot lights of a campaign for the highest office in the land.

For a governor who prides himself on taking bold stands, and winning on the electoral battlefield, DeSantis has not yet shown the strength that gave some Republicans reason to believe he could compete with Trump.

A spokesperson for DeSantis did not return a request for comment for this article.

Once surging, DeSantis remains well below Trump in polls measuring the prospective GOP primary field. He was slow to respond to the possible indictment of Trump — and then sideswiped the former president once he did. DeSantis was also forced this week to clean up his position on U.S. support for Ukraine after a backlash from establishment Republicans.

“It’s 100% possible that we’ve seen him peak already,” said one veteran Republican campaign operative who speaks to donors regularly. That person said he believes DeSantis can recover, but the governor’s reaction to the indictment question “was really telling about how far behind the eight-ball” he and his team are.

A GOP strategist who has spoken directly with donors in Palm Beach said that this is a week that should be good for DeSantis, considering his chief rival for the nomination could be indicted any day now. And the fact that it’s been so tough for the governor has given some donors pause.

“DeSantis is doing a book tour. He’s barnstorming the country, and his polls are going down,” the strategist said. “Meanwhile, Trump’s potentially under indictment, and Trump’s going up. It’s just not a good look for DeSantis.”

This person added that donors who have given to DeSantis over the past year or two are still open to supporting him for president, but they’re also starting to take a look at other potential candidates like Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., as DeSantis has “fumbled” big moments.

The polling dip and subsequent angst radiating from some allies are the first measurable dents to the enthusiasm for DeSantis as a viable alternative to Trump. They follow weeks of attacks by the former president, from fanning unfounded rumors about the governor’s personal life to criticizing his past votes in Congress. DeSantis’ responses have been largely restrained, mild criticisms often delivered with his disclaimer that he doesn’t want to attack fellow Republicans.

Dan Eberhart, a GOP donor who is supporting the governor, told NBC News this week he doesn’t think DeSantis can afford to continue tiptoeing around Trump.

“DeSantis shouldn’t ignore him for too much longer,” he said.

Of course, there are donors who are excited by DeSantis’ early performance and the prospects of him winning the presidency.

Gregory Cook, founder of the multilevel essential oils marketing company doTerra, said in an email that DeSantis’ pre-campaign phase has been “very encouraging!” and that the Florida governor “exhibits the leadership we need at this time.”

He said he sees no need for adjustment from DeSantis.

“Although he has not announced a presidential run, if he were to do so, Governor DeSantis is the clear front-runner in my opinion,” Cook said.

DeSantis allies have said he doesn’t plan to make an announcement about a possible candidacy at least until June, after Florida’s legislative session is over. Sitting in a clear second place to Trump in most national surveys, DeSantis may see waiting as a way to help freeze the field of other candidates waiting to make their own decisions.

“The pending candidacy of Ron DeSantis is absolutely keeping people out,” said one Republican strategist who, like others, requested anonymity to speak candidly about presidential contenders. If DeSantis gets in and shows himself to be a strong candidate, “that probably holds.”

“And if he’s not successful — and that’s an arbitrary assessment to some degree; what’s successful? — then you could see others continue to look at it or eventually get in the race,” this person added.

Yet advisers to multiple potential candidates said DeSantis’ recent struggles have had no impact on their thinking about the race.

“There’s this online eagerness to say DeSantis is falling apart, and I just don’t think that’s where Republican voters are,” one adviser to such a candidate said.

But, they added, there was one “big takeaway” from DeSantis’ past week.

“We were always convinced that DeSantis was going to be very disciplined. Disciplined, disciplined, disciplined,” this person said. “And he kind of proved this week that he’s not. This was a guy who would not talk about Trump, and here he is taking shots nearly a year before Republicans start actually voting.”

At a news conference Monday, DeSantis denounced Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg as a pawn of the liberal billionaire George Soros, but then used the opportunity to take a shot at Trump by repeating the allegations against the former president: “I don’t know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair. I just, I can’t speak to that.”

Then, in an interview published Wednesday, DeSantis told British journalist Piers Morgan he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin is a “war criminal” who should be “held accountable” for his invasion of Ukraine. It was a notably different response from what he said in a March 13 statement to Fox News host Tucker Carlson, when he said that defending Ukraine in a “territorial dispute” is not in America’s “vital national interests.”

And during a Thursday appearance on Newsmax, DeSantis was again critical of U.S. policy toward Ukraine and questioned providing that country with American weaponry.

Republicans are deeply divided on continued U.S. assistance to Ukraine, and DeSantis received a fair amount of criticism from members of the GOP — including other possible 2024 rivals — for his initial response. It seemed to be an attempt to be closer in line to Trump’s own stance on Ukraine, especially considering DeSantis’ more hawkish stance on the matter when he served in Congress.

Former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory, a Republican and an NBC News contributor, said DeSantis’ waffling on Ukraine surprised him “because on everything else, he comes out with such strong statements and convictions.”

“DeSantis has got to be careful not to walk the line on issues,” he added. “He comes out strong on so many issues, if he starts playing the political game of trying to have it both ways, I think he’ll lose his credibility. … I think too many of the Republican presidential candidates are still trying to walk the line of having it both ways, and you can’t do that with Trump.”

Trump has led DeSantis in nearly every reputable national poll since the start of Joe Biden’s presidency in 2021, but a flurry of large spreads earlier this month forced GOP insiders to start asking whether anyone could deny Trump a third consecutive nomination.

“There’s always going to be nervousness, especially with the poll numbers looking the way they are,” said one longtime Republican operative who noted that he hasn't seen donors fleeing from DeSantis. “I think he’s done a good job of holding them at bay.”

David Kochel, an Iowa-based Republican operative who served as the chief strategist in former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s ill-fated 2016 presidential campaign, cautioned it’s too early to call a winner based on national polling so far out from the first state nominating contests. He named several momentary GOP front-runners from past cycles to underscore his argument.

“The only polls that will ever matter are the state by state polls, and even then only as we get much closer to the actual contests,” he said. “Presidents Scott Walker, Ben Carson and Newt Gingrich might have additional thoughts about early national polls.”

Meanwhile, even Trump allies expected more from DeSantis. One Republican operative supportive of Trump said DeSantis missed an opportunity to flex power over Trump after the former president said over the weekend that he expected to be indicted on charges in New York in the coming days.

“What DeSantis should have done is immediately respond and say, ‘Under no circumstances will the free state of Florida allow this political prosecution to take place,’” said the operative, noting the logistics of getting Trump, a Florida resident, to New York for an arraignment. “What that would have done is present DeSantis as the alpha and Trump as the beta. He could have set himself up to look like the protector of Trump, which would have driven Trump crazy.”
________

[rj1]

Global recession incoming...timing-wise I'm reminded of George H.W. Bush in 1991.

Bureau of Labor Statistics that does the unemployment data made massive revisions for the past couple months increasing the numbers. With the revisions we're at the 9th straight week above 200k. The unemployment is mostly Western-based, unsurprising considering how tech has fallen. Also read yesterday the trucking industry are in the middle of lots of carriers collapsing that's in part based on how it exploded in size due to Covid response and the stimulus sending everyone buying goods.

If it happens and we're finally in one because you can no longer kick the can down the road, if the Republicans pick a presidential candidate that discusses nothing except cost of living and keeps the rhetoric in the campaign race on that, that person should win. Democrats in contrast have to try to ensure the election is about Trump and/or Trumpism to win.

[TopHatter]

If it happens and we're finally in one because you can no longer kick the can down the road, if the Republicans pick a presidential candidate that discusses nothing except cost of living and keeps the rhetoric in the campaign race on that, that person should win. Democrats in contrast have to try to ensure the election is about Trump and/or Trumpism to win.

Bingo. "It's the economy stupid".

[TopHatter]

DeSantis Donor Quakes & New Hampshire Foibles
There are rumblings all across Florida, but particularly in donorworld, that DeSantis is trending in the wrong direction and should hold his fire till ’28. Youngkin, on the other hand, doesn’t have that kind of optionality.


Ron DeSantis already has about $200 million in the bank, but it’s been a rough month or so.

Among the 15-20 Republican mega-donors who control the purse strings in G.O.P. politics, there’s growing concern that Ron DeSantis, the great white knight from Tallahassee, might not be the one, or at least not yet. Most of these top dogs—Steve Schwarzman, Ken Griffin, Paul Singer, Ken Langone, etcetera—are moderate-ish Bush-era billionaires who loved Trump’s corporate tax cuts but have appeared ready to move on from the candidate, despite the former president’s efforts to win them back by circulating memos highlighting his poll numbers or working the room at John Paulson’s Palm Beach housewarming party.

Nevertheless, these are businessmen, hedge fund founders, and private equity moguls who appreciate optionality and are now looking to hedge their risk, as I reported last week. “If DeSantis is the guy, we’re ready to go for it and we’re ready to throw our weight behind him,” one major donor told me. “We want one or two of them rather than Trump. DeSantis should not misread early support for him, which I’m sure DeSantis hates. We’re ready to support two Trump alternative candidates, because why wouldn’t we?”

Sure, DeSantis already has about $200 million in the bank, but it’s been a rough month or so. He’s been trending downward in early polling and was completely upstaged by Trump’s indictment and arrest in New York, an oxygen-annihilating media event that seemed, somehow, to have caught the Florida governor and his staff off-guard—first with his disingenuous, chatbot-esque performance during a softball interview with Piers Morgan, during which he fumbled his response to questions about Trump’s looming indictment, and again when he was put on the spot regarding whether he would stand in the way of Trump’s potential extradition.

The trouble with DeSantis is that his candidacy is more compelling on paper than it is in practice. Of course, any would-be president’s ambitions eclipse their accomplishments. But DeSantis, despite ruling over a state of 20 million people, has yet to be tested on a national stage. He’s also revealed a reactive and potentially short-sighted political instinct with his recent moves to legalize permitless concealed carry in Florida and his plan to sign a six-week abortion ban—two base-revving policies that would unquestionably come back to haunt him in a general election.

Other missteps have been stylistic, donors say, like his desire to always appear as the smartest person in the room. Perhaps he should embrace a more genial approach, like their north star George W. Bush, the guy who didn’t drink but whom you would grab a beer with. (Though look how that turned out…)

DeSantis’s people brush off this grumbling as a bunch of moderates who don’t understand what it takes to win the Republican primary these days. Sure, the six-week abortion ban might upset them, but if he’s going to beat Trump in the primary, he needs to campaign to the hard right. But the party’s moneymen worry he’s being myopic, or naive. “He’s showing signs of stress and that only he and his wife Casey are in his inner camp,” the major donor told me. “DeSantis has to do whatever he can to stop the bill from getting the six-week abortion ban to his desk.”

In fact, these donors see it as a real test. One called it a “death warrant.” That’s why you’re starting to hear the intensified grumbling that perhaps DeSantis should do a headfake and sit this one out for 2028. I’ve been in Florida reporting for the past two weeks and have heard this inside conversation at all levels, from voters to G.O.P. leaders to top donors who wonder if DeSantis should really run.

“The Game-Winning Pitcher in the Bullpen”
Three months ago, DeSantis was on top of the world, having beaten Trump in a poll of G.O.P. voters in New Hampshire and enjoying his own sense of political inevitability. Now, the conversation among donors has shifted to whether they need to identify another “game-winning relief pitcher in the bullpen,” in case DeSantis doesn’t have the gas to go the distance. (I know, more sports metaphors, but these are obviously all men talking.) The de facto option for these guys is to pick someone most like them—a man who understands the economic and political universe as they see it; a former private equity hero and centimillionaire on their level. Yes, we’re talking once again about Glenn Youngkin.

I’m reliably told that Youngkin has made it clear that he will not run before the state legislature elections in Virginia, in November. He’s dead set on flipping the state red and making that his signature success story, outside of his manufactured C.R.T. platform, which DeSantis snatched up and turbocharged. Of course, a very late entry would put him at a sizable disadvantage—especially if it means missing debates, potentially failing to qualify for the ballot in certain states, and arriving without a national campaign apparatus in place. But surely, the argument goes, Youngkin can spend $20 million of his own cash immediately to make up any lost ground, and he’d be able to call on his peers to help bridge the delta. He’s got significant evangelical support waiting in the wings. And by waiting on the sidelines, Youngkin avoids months of Trump attacks.

Sure it’s a longshot, but this may be Youngkin’s last chance at the White House. Whereas donors are telling DeSantis to consider sitting back and waiting until 2028, after Trump is out of the picture, Youngkin is being advised that 2028 is too far away. His term as governor is up in 2025, and he’s term limited from running again. Without a political platform to stand on, he runs the risk of becoming just another rich guy with presidential dreams.

Oh, and there’s the Rupert Murdoch factor, too. I’m told that both Youngkin and DeSantis met with Murdoch, separately, at his $200 million Montana ranch last year, and the Fox and News Corp. owner seemed to get on better with the fleece-wearing former Carlyle co-C.E.O. than he did with the former Navy lawyer.

It’s not just the monied class whose confidence DeSantis appears to be losing; his appeal with the grassroots is also being tested. To wit, multiple sources noted to me that the New Hampshire G.O.P. is still struggling to sell tickets, at every level up from entry-level tickets to $5,000 dinner sponsorships, for the annual Amos Tuck Dinner on April 14, featuring DeSantis as the special guest. With only one week to go, organizers are apparently underwhelmed by the interest in an event they’d hoped would sell out. Meanwhile, The Daily Beast has a story out about how everyone from G.O.P. donors to organizers have been frustrated by the lack of responsiveness from the DeSantis team, as well as his insistence on doing as little media as possible. New Hampshire activists have been particularly miffed that they need to submit requests to the governor’s office to see him while he’s in town—a hurdle they’re not used to as influencers in the first-in-the-nation primary. (A New Hampshire G.O.P. spokesperson declined to comment.)

But maybe DeSantis doesn’t care about New Hampshire or Iowa. NBC News is reporting that he’s instead focusing on outlasting Trump and winning more delegates overall—what people in the know are already calling “the Rudy Guiliani strategy.” Which by the way, didn’t work.
_______

All it takes is for Trump to be out of the way....

I wonder if DeSantis and Youngkin are sending no-limit McDonald's gift cards to Trump

[tbm3fan]

Always has amazed me how billionaires don't feel they should pay that much in taxes and it isn't because they can't afford it. They can afford several multi-million dollar homes but another couple of million in taxes is outrageous. Meanwhile all us ordinary working Joe's have only one house, maybe, and have to pay a higher percentage then any of these billionaires do. Perfectly normal...

[TopHatter]

Trump says if elected he will force federal workers to pass a political test and fire them if they fail

Former president Donald Trump said that if he returns to the White House in 2025, he will mandate that federal employees take a civil service test and workers who do not pass would be fired.

The former president made the remarks in a video released on Friday.

“I will require every federal employee to pass a new civil service test, demonstrating an understanding our constitutional limited government,” he said.

Mr Trump said that the test would include command of due process rights, equal protection, free speech, religious liberty and Fourth Amendment to the Constitution’s protection against unreasonable search and seizure, which led him to mention the FBI searching his Mar-a-Lago estate in August for classified documents.

“We will put unelected bureaucrats back in their place, liberate the US economy and attract millions of jobs and trillions of dollars to our shores,” he said.

Mr Trump has previously called on putting in new requirements for federal employees. In March of last year, he called on passing laws that would make every employee who works under the executive branch fireable by the president.

“We will pass critical reforms making every executive branch employee fireable by the president of the United States,” he said at the time. “The deep state must and will be brought to heel. It’s already happening.”

Throughout his presidency, Mr Trump regularly went after various executive branch officials, such as when he fired FBI director James Comey and when he regularly attacked his attorney general Jeff Sessions.

Mr Trump was recently indicted and arraigned in Manhattan on 34 charges related to alleged hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. He also faces a federal investigation led by Special Counsel Jack Smith, whom Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed, to investigate both his keeping of classified documents and his attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, including his actions on January 6.
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Trump would've been fired on Day One of his presidency if this was a real thing.

[DOR]

Trump says if elected he will force federal workers to pass a political test and fire them if they fail

Former president Donald Trump said that if he returns to the White House in 2025, he will mandate that federal employees take a civil service test and workers who do not pass would be fired.

The former president made the remarks in a video released on Friday.

“I will require every federal employee to pass a new civil service test, demonstrating an understanding our constitutional limited government,” he said.

Mr Trump said that the test would include command of due process rights, equal protection, free speech, religious liberty and Fourth Amendment to the Constitution’s protection against unreasonable search and seizure, which led him to mention the FBI searching his Mar-a-Lago estate in August for classified documents.

“We will put unelected bureaucrats back in their place, liberate the US economy and attract millions of jobs and trillions of dollars to our shores,” he said.

Mr Trump has previously called on putting in new requirements for federal employees. In March of last year, he called on passing laws that would make every employee who works under the executive branch fireable by the president.

“We will pass critical reforms making every executive branch employee fireable by the president of the United States,” he said at the time. “The deep state must and will be brought to heel. It’s already happening.”

Throughout his presidency, Mr Trump regularly went after various executive branch officials, such as when he fired FBI director James Comey and when he regularly attacked his attorney general Jeff Sessions.

Mr Trump was recently indicted and arraigned in Manhattan on 34 charges related to alleged hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. He also faces a federal investigation led by Special Counsel Jack Smith, whom Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed, to investigate both his keeping of classified documents and his attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, including his actions on January 6.
___________

Trump would've been fired on Day One of his presidency if this was a real thing.

McCarthyism, without the ideological foundation or compassion ...

[Monash]

Assuming he was serious and not just throwing out another one of his 'thought bubbles' to his fan base the idea is illegal to begin with - so strait off to the courts we go. But beyond that I'd love to see him try and then sit back watch as every civil federal civil servant in the country deliberately decides to 'fail' the test. No mail, no weather service, no national parks open, no FDA, etc etc etc.

[TopHatter]

Assuming he was serious and not just throwing out another one of his 'thought bubbles' to his fan base the idea is illegal to begin with - so strait off to the court s we go. But beyond that I'd love to see him try and then sit back watch as every civil federal civil servant in the country deliberately decides to 'fail' the test. No mail, no weather service, no national parks open, no FDA, etc etc etc.

Those thought bubbles that he throws out there for his fanbase is almost always something that he himself firmly believes, whether he seriously intends to implement it or not.

With his remaining base consisting of a large number of nihilists, the downsides you mentioned are, like his racism, nativism and greed, not actually downsides, but rather checkmarks in the "must have" column.

Then of course there are a few points that explain pretty much anything Trump ever says or does. I've posted them in meme form before:

1. Everything Trump says is a lie, a half-truth, a twisting of the facts, or just plain fantasy. Nothing he says is 100 percent true.

2. Every criticism or insult of someone else is a projection of his own weaknesses. What he accuses others of is what he, not they, are guilty of.

3. He never cares about anyone but himself. Whatever he says or does, he'll do for his own benefit, no one else's.

4. He has no strategy. He has no plan. He's just a racist old man with the intellect of a kindergartner, playing 52 pickup with literally anyone and everyone.

[rj1]

“I will require every federal employee to pass a new civil service test, demonstrating an understanding our constitutional limited government,” he said.

I think most elected Democrats and Republicans would fail such a test, including Mr. Trump.

I've long thought a person wanting to run for Congress, Senate, President being required to pass a civics test is not the worst idea in the world, but it'd require amending the Constitution to do so (can't add extra requirements, e.g. minimum residencies have been declared unconstitutional), so will never happen.

Mike Pompeo yesterday announced he would not run for President, did not endorse anyone but took a veiled swipe at Trump saying "I think Americans are thirsting for people making arguments, not just tweets."

The DeSantis donor stories strike me as a bored press that want to write about the presidential election for clicks but have little to write about.

But maybe DeSantis doesn’t care about New Hampshire or Iowa. NBC News is reporting that he’s instead focusing on outlasting Trump and winning more delegates overall—what people in the know are already calling “the Rudy Guiliani strategy.” Which by the way, didn’t work.

It was kind of the Joe Biden strategy. He got 5th place in New Hampshire with 8% behind Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Warren. And Biden thanked them by taking away their first-in-the-nation primary and giving it instead to the state that propelled him to the nomination. If Biden's name were Donald Trump the media would call it vindictive score-settling.

DeSantis in my opinion should care about Iowa and New Hampshire. New Hampshire should in 2024 vote for the Republican nominee due to the Democratic Party threatening a very important economic driver in the state of the state's status of 1st primary (whether you believe NH should have it or not, threatening to get rid of it does have existential downside risk to the state when you consider all the money poured into advertising, hotel rooms, event space, catering, etc. every 4 years). If DeSantis does not campaign there and wins the nomination, there will be no difference between him and what Biden and the Democrats are currently planning on doing.

[TopHatter]

Iowa Is a Big Problem for Trump

Iowa Republicans aren’t buying and the math for the GOP caucus is going to be scrambled because the Democrats have killed theirs.


Former President Donald Trump speaks with reporters as he lands at Quad City International Airport en route to Iowa on Monday, March 13, 2023, in Moline, Illinois.

THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM ON 2024 has flipped. Again. At first, Trump was toast. Then Ron DeSantis was a juggernaut. Then the New York indictment supercharged Trump while DeSantis was revealed to hate puppies, small children, and humankind in general.

So now Trump, having turned the party of Lincoln into the party of Rasputin, cannot be defeated by any mortal Republican—only by Joe Biden in the general.

Perhaps. But I spent a few days in Iowa last week checking in with old friends from my decades working in state Republican politics. I had a useful captive audience of Iowa pols and operatives when I gave the annual Culver Lecture at Simpson College in Indianola, and I met other local politicos in Des Moines. In each chat, the take was unanimous: They told me that Donald Trump is going to lose the Iowa caucus. Some of them predicted a third-place finish.

“Of any ten strong Trump people I know from 2016,” one youngish field wizard told me, “at least half are gone.”

Iowa’s GOP regulars think Trump is a certain loser against Biden, I was told, and the state’s powerful evangelicals agree; they are looking for a younger, more authentic champion. They see the stakes as being so high in their war against the secular left that a slow general election pony like Trump seems a foolish bet.

So that’s what Iowa’s hacks are saying. Now let’s review the numerical facts.

IN 2016, DONALD TRUMP RECEIVED 24.3 percent of the Republican caucus vote, leaving him second behind Ted Cruz. Trump received 45,429 votes out of about 187,000 votes cast. Most of the party mechanics I talked with think his support has significantly waned since.

While the Iowa Democratic caucus is now gone, having been stripped of its first-in-the-nation status, the Republican contest will remain huge national news. On caucus night, Trump will be hoisted onto a livestock scale and his true political strength weighed for all to see, bovine style. And the scale doesn’t lie; for the allegedly all-powerful King of the GOP, losing could expose real weakness.

Here is a significant factor to consider: When the DNC axed the Iowa caucuses, they left the 172,300 Democrats and independents who participated in 2016 with nothing to do on caucus night. Experienced local pols in both parties will tell you never to underestimate the importance of the caucuses to Iowa’s political culture, where participating is seen as an important civic duty.

Because they’re worried about caucusless Democrats showing up for the Republican caucus next February, Iowa’s GOP-controlled House is moving a bill to make it harder for non-Republicans to caucus. This would be a significant change. Historically, the Iowa GOP made it easy to just show up at the caucuses and register as a Republican because this was a prized party tool to gain new registrants. Now they’re less worried about making new Republicans than contamination from Democrats.

But even if the worried wing of the state GOP succeeds in creating new obstacles (like a 70-day pre-caucus registration requirement), plenty of Democrats will still be willing to become independents or even Republicans for a day so that they can participate—in Iowa, changing your party registration is easily done online.

“We can’t let Donald Trump continue to dictate the Republican party,” one Democrat told me. While some giggling Democrats might enter the caucuses as fake MAGA warriors on the assumption that Trump would be a weaker opponent for Biden, I’ll bet a prize hog that the overwhelming majority of any visiting, non-GOP caucus voters will be on a civic mission to stop Trump from becoming the GOP nominee.

The math here could be quite interesting. If 15 percent of the 172,300 Democrats and independents who participated in the Democratic caucuses in 2016 were to show up at the GOP caucuses next year, that would be over 25,000 new votes—which is about half of what the winning Republican candidate usually gets.

That could be a pretty big hidden normie vote.

THE OPERATIVES I SPOKE TO all believe that Iowa is wide open. Nikki Haley is a frequent early visitor (I saw her scuttling across my hotel lobby twice), and her stump is getting solid reviews, but she is struggling to zero in on a message more powerful than her generic list of base-pleasing applause lines. The revelation that Haley dramatically inflated her initial campaign fundraising report has sparked doubts about whether or not she can raise enough money to fully compete.

Tim Scott—now an official presidential campaign explorer—is attracting interest from the evangelicals who make up a large and influential chunk of Iowa’s GOP. (Note to Sen. Scott: Widen your appeal. You need party regulars, too. The 150-percent-pure-evangelical approach is a proven way to win Iowa only to lose New Hampshire and then the nomination. Ask former Presidents Pat Robertson, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum. Scott could learn much from George W. Bush’s successful evangelical-plus-sunny-uplifter strategy from 2000.)

Ron DeSantis has yet to offend Iowans the way he’s lost the first-to-panic Republican donor class, so Hawkeye operatives think he is still in the hunt. But doubts are growing. DeSantis will have to really shine in the second-look process that begins this summer. (Note to Gov. DeSantis: Dale Carnegie was born in Maryville, Missouri, just 16 miles from the Iowa state line. They have online courses. Wouldn’t hurt.)

Potential contenders Glenn Youngkin and Brian Kemp haven’t popped up on Iowa radar screens. Mike Pence is a known quantity, but hasn’t sparked much talk. Yet.

This early vacuum is completely normal; Iowa caucus voters sample early but decide very late. Any caucus pro will tell you the last 40 days of the contest are everything, and the early polls are near meaningless. (A year before the 2016 GOP caucus, Scott Walker and Rand Paul led the Des Moines Register poll.)

While Trump may be badly damaged goods in Iowa, he remains a real threat to the others. A desperate, feral Trump could be a catalyst, potentially hurting other candidates more than helping himself. His competition will need to become effortlessly adept at slapping back Trump’s gusher of “people are saying” smears and innuendos. Expect to hear about DeSantis, whiskey, and high school girls; Scott’s bachelor status; and even smears about Youngkin’s name. (“YoungKIN! Sounds like a Chinese name. Maybe he’s a Chinese robot. I hear people are talking about it.”) Idiotic? Sure, but these candidates should remember linguist George Lakoff’s famous example: “Don’t think of an elephant! Now you are thinking of an elephant.” Trump’s smears, while puerile, untrue, and outrageous, cannot be ignored.

Much has yet to happen in the campaign. But Iowa Republicans are very much open for business and shopping for a new face. And should Trump indeed lose Iowa, he’ll be a bleeding target on the road to New Hampshire, and the race will be upended.
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I will be thoroughly shocked if Trump tanks in Iowa....Of course, that's a long looooong ways away.

[TopHatter]

It was kind of the Joe Biden strategy. He got 5th place in New Hampshire with 8% behind Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Warren. And Biden thanked them by taking away their first-in-the-nation primary and giving it instead to the state that propelled him to the nomination. If Biden's name were Donald Trump the media would call it vindictive score-settling.

Probably because Joe Biden is well known for being empathetic and compassionate.

On the other hand, vindictive score-settling gushes out of every orifice of Trump's body. It's one of his three overriding priorities in life. He's practically defined by it.