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  • #31
    Originally posted by JRT View Post

    I like the low key delivery direct from the source in contrast to sensationalized news reporting.
    Which may be why it doesn’t seem to penetrate the brains (…) of your typical Fox viewser.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
      Well I can tell you here in the Mid Atlantic I have not been able to find any Asian beer is months

      My local watering hole took 10 ten days to get restocked on Miller Lite & Coors Lite kegs this past week.

      And every trucking company in the Richmond area is throwing money at drivers...they are desperate.
      Trucking specifically is a nightmare. I was basically told they aren't going to worry about my manufacturing varainces if we keep them reasonably in line because trucking costs are like 40% above expectations. We're having a ton of problems getting bulk ingredients.

      My one buddy got fired last year, but is making twice as much money trucking now since he is allowed to work whatever overtime he wants.

      Definitely odd times.
      "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by GVChamp View Post

        Trucking specifically is a nightmare. I was basically told they aren't going to worry about my manufacturing varainces if we keep them reasonably in line because trucking costs are like 40% above expectations. We're having a ton of problems getting bulk ingredients.

        My one buddy got fired last year, but is making twice as much money trucking now since he is allowed to work whatever overtime he wants.

        Definitely odd times.
        I left one LTL company on Friday making $25.25/hr in Arkansas to start a new one Monday at $29.54/hr plus $9000 in sign on and retention bonuses over the next 18 months making real wage $32/hr. It is a drivers market, a clean CDL with experience is a golden ticket right now. Everyone who isn't vested/ already at a competitive top out is looking at options. I was already making more than the states median household income (
        (double with my wife's income) and my wife and I expect to do even better in the last half of 21.

        Comment


        • #34
          Fiscal Responsibility
          A/K/A Cleaning up after the GOPers



          Over the course of 2022-31, the Congressional Budget Office expects the federal government to take out of the economy $2,339.5 billion less than it did five months ago (February 2021; both sets of data are here: https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data#3). Spending is expected to be $2,166.8 billion lower, and as a result the budget deficit will be $172.6 billion smaller and federal debt held by the public $5,489.4 billion less.

          The figures are calculated on the basis of $5,829.9 billion less in GDP over the coming 10 years, and are the first to take into account the recently passed $1.9 trillion infrastructure plan.




          Revenues from individual tax returns are expected to be $1,512.1 billion lower, from Payroll taxes $409.5 billion less, and from corporations $367.5 billion below the previous forecast.

          Spending on mandatory programs will fall by $1,192.3 billion while that for discretionary will fall by $2,447.5 billion, or more than twice as much as under the previous administrations plans.
          Trust me?
          I'm an economist!

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by zraver View Post

            I left one LTL company on Friday making $25.25/hr in Arkansas to start a new one Monday at $29.54/hr plus $9000 in sign on and retention bonuses over the next 18 months making real wage $32/hr. It is a drivers market, a clean CDL with experience is a golden ticket right now. Everyone who isn't vested/ already at a competitive top out is looking at options. I was already making more than the states median household income (
            (double with my wife's income) and my wife and I expect to do even better in the last half of 21.
            Yeah sounds about right. Probably shouldn't tell you to save your pennies because gravy trains don't last forever. My friend seems to think this is going to be the regular from now until the end of time, and that's a recipe for heart-break.

            It is nice to see some wage gains on the bottom side of the pyramid, though I'd like to see some skill gains and capital improvements to go along with it. Specifically being on capital improvement projects has been incredibly frustrating, and is...ahh...it's one of those things where you learn "what they teach you in the classroom" does not apply to the real world.
            "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by CBSNews


              Rent prices soar in multiple cities across U.S.

              CBS News
              Published on 17 July 2021

              Rent prices are rising well past their pre-pandemic levels in multiple U.S. cities. Realtor.com says the median rent last month is up 8% compared to the same time last year. Rents are at new highs in 44 of the nation's largest markets. CBS News' MoneyWatch reporter Irina Ivanova joined Lana Zak to discuss.

              .

              ...
              .
              .
              .

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by GVChamp View Post

                Yeah sounds about right. Probably shouldn't tell you to save your pennies because gravy trains don't last forever. My friend seems to think this is going to be the regular from now until the end of time, and that's a recipe for heart-break.

                It is nice to see some wage gains on the bottom side of the pyramid, though I'd like to see some skill gains and capital improvements to go along with it. Specifically being on capital improvement projects has been incredibly frustrating, and is...ahh...it's one of those things where you learn "what they teach you in the classroom" does not apply to the real world.
                Wages in the LTL and OTR sectors are soaring. OTR faces some medium term pressure towards automation but there is so much freight moving right. Just not cars.

                Comment


                • #38
                  The National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the arbitrator of such things, now says the COVID-19 recession ended after just two months, and therefore was the shortest in history.
                  “In general usage, the word recession connotes a marked slippage in economic activity. While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation.”

                  --Note that no one says that's two quarters of year-on-year contraction, nor do they say quarter-to-quarter annualized. Since it's not an official definition, no one actually defines it.

                  In 2001, the Q-Qa figure contracted in Jan-Mar (-1.1%), rose in Apr-Jun (+2.4%), fell again in Jul-Sep (-1.7%), and then rose again in Q-4 (+1.1%). Year-on-Year, there was not a single quarter of contraction.

                  The previous recession lasted from December 2007 to June 2009 (18 mo), the longest one since 1929-33 (43 mo).

                  “The NBER recession is a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators—such as employment, personal income, and industrial production—as well as quarterly GDP growth. Therefore, while negative GDP growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth does not always hold.”

                  The first recession identified by the NBER was in 1857-58, and lasted 18 months (the average is 17 months, although since WWII, the average is just 10.3 months.

                  Recessions _ _ _ 1857-1945 _ _ 1946-2021

                  Minimum Length _ _8 months _ _ 2 months

                  Maximum Length _ 16 mo _ _ _ 65 mo

                  Average Length _ _ 20.6 mo _ _ 10.3 mo

                  Number _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 22 _ _ _ _ _ 7





                  https://www.nber.org/research/data/u...d-contractions

                  Last edited by DOR; 20 Jul 21,, 13:32.
                  Trust me?
                  I'm an economist!

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by DOR View Post
                    [SIZE=14px][FONT=Times New Roman]The National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the arbitrator of such things, now says the COVID-19 recession ended after just two months, and therefore was the shortest in history.
                    I heard this on Marketplace last night and did the Scooby Doo "Hunh?"

                    This really sums up why Economics truly is the Dismal Science!

                    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                    Mark Twain

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      AR,
                      It depends on what's being measured ...



                      Recession indicaors


                      _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Civilian _ Total hours worked in _ _
                      _ _ _ _ _ _ _employment _ manufacturing sector _ _


                      Nov 48-Oct 49 _ _ _-2.0% _ _ -10.3%
                      Jul 53-May 54 _ _ _ -2.4% _ _ -10.7%
                      Aug 57-Apr 58 _ _ _-2.1% _ _ -11.1%
                      Apr 60-Feb 61 _ _ _ -0.6% _ _ -6.9-%
                      Dec 69-Nov 70 _ _ -0.1% _ _ -10.4%
                      Nov 73-Mar 75 _ _ -1.3% _ _ -14.2%
                      Jan 80-Jul 80 _ _ __1.1% _ _ _ -7.3%
                      Jul 81-Nov 82 _ _ _-1.6% _ _ -13.0%
                      Jul 90-Mar 91 _ _ _-1.0% _ _ -4.6%
                      Mar 01-Nov 01 _ _ -1.1% _ _ -7.5%
                      Dec 07-Jun 09 _ _ _-4.3% _ _ -17.8%
                      Feb 20 – Apr 20 _ _-11.8% _ _ -12.6%

                      Note the largest ever drop in employment (and bear in mind that's over 2 months, not the average 16 months), and one of the larger drops in manufacturing hours worked (total, not per person / week). Granted, we have a small fraction of the share of the economy in manufacturing these days (8% of employment) compared to earlier decades, but that's a big drop by any measure.
                      Trust me?
                      I'm an economist!

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Oh, I am tracking, DOR, it just will fall on a lot of deaf ears because they don't understand the points you are bringing out.

                        WHen we have so many people long term unemployed its hard to see the silver lining in the clouds.
                        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                        Mark Twain

                        Comment


                        • #42


                          Good, consistent labor records give us a dataset dating back to 1948, over 73 years ago. Since then, long-term unemployment has averaged 1% of the labor force, or 16.1% of the number of unemployed. Here's a few highlights from past recessions:


                          _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Rate of _ _ Long Term
                          _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Unemployment

                          Nov 48-Oct 49 _ 5.6% _ _ 0.3%
                          Jul 53-May 54 _ 4.3% _ _ 0.2%
                          Aug 57-Apr 58 _ 5.5% _ _ 0.5%
                          Apr 60-Feb 61 _ 5.9% _ _ 0.7%
                          Dec 69-Nov 70 _ 4.8% _ _ 0.3%
                          Nov 73-Mar 75 _ 6.0% _ _ 0.5%
                          Jan 80-Jul 80 _ _ 6.9% _ _ 0.6%
                          Jul 81-Nov 82 _ _9.0% _ _ 1.4%
                          Jul 90-Mar 91 _ _ 6.1% _ _ 0.6%
                          Mar 01-Nov 01 _ 4.8% _ _ 0.6%
                          Dec 07-Jun 09 _ _ 6.7% _ _ 1.5%
                          Feb 20-Apr-20 _ _ 6.1% _ _ 2.6%







                          See for yourself: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UEMP27OV


                          Trust me?
                          I'm an economist!

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Economic Update, July 21, 2021
                            The Congressional Budget Office regularly publishes its baseline projections of what the federal budget and the economy would look like in the current year and over the next 10 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged. This report provides additional detail about the agency’s latest baseline projections, which were published earlier this month.

                            * The Budget. CBO projects a federal budget deficit of $3.0 trillion in 2021 as the economic disruption caused by the 2020–2021 coronavirus pandemic and the legislation enacted in response continue to boost the deficit (which was large by historical standards even before the pandemic). At 13.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit in 2021 would be the second largest since 1945, exceeded only by the 14.9 percent shortfall recorded last year.

                            * In CBO’s projections, deficits fall over the next few years as pandemic-related spending wanes. They increase in most years thereafter—boosted by rising interest costs and greater spending for entitlement programs—and reach 5.5 percent of GDP in 2031. (Revenues remain largely stable relative to GDP over the projection period.)

                            * With such deficits, federal debt held by the public totals 103 percent of GDP at the end of 2021 in CBO’s projections. Debt then falls modestly through 2024 and rises thereafter, reaching 106 percent of GDP in 2031—about equal to its previous peak, recorded in 1946.

                            * Changes in CBO’s Budget Projections Since February 2021. Compared with the baseline projections that CBO published in February 2021, the agency’s estimate of the deficit for this year is now $0.7 trillion (or 33 percent) larger, and its current projection of the cumulative deficit for the 2022–2031 period, $12.1 trillion, is $0.2 trillion (or 1 percent) smaller. In 2021, the costs of recently enacted legislation are partly offset by the effects of a stronger economy and technical changes (changes that are neither legislative nor economic). In later years, technical changes that reduce projected deficits more than offset the effects of recently enacted legislation and revisions to the economic forecast.

                            * The Economy. As the pandemic eases and demand for consumer services surges, real (inflation-adjusted) GDP in CBO’s projections grows by 7.4 percent this year and surpasses its potential (maximum sustainable) level by the end of the year. Annual output growth averages 2.8 percent from 2021 to 2025, exceeding the 2.0 percent growth rate of real potential GDP. Over the 2026–2031 period, real GDP growth averages 1.6 percent annually.

                            Employment grows quickly in the second half of 2021 in CBO’s projections and surpasses its prepandemic level in mid-2022. Inflation rises in 2021 to its highest rate since 2008 as increases in the supply of goods and services lag behind increases in the demand for them. By 2022, supply adjusts more quickly, and inflation falls but remains above its prepandemic rate through 2025. As the economy continues to expand over the forecast period, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes rises, reaching 2.7 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2031—still low by historical standards.

                            * Changes in CBO’s Economic Projections Since February 2021. CBO now projects stronger economic growth than it projected in February 2021 because of recently enacted legislation, the diminishing effects of social distancing, and increased consumer spending. As a result, the agency’s projections of inflation and interest rates are now higher than they were in February.

                            Trust me?
                            I'm an economist!

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by New_York_Post

                              ‘Not enough seats’: Buses leaving Texas border town packed with illegal migrants

                              By Marie Banks
                              22 July 2021
                              New York Post

                              Buses leaving Texas cities at the heart of the border crisis are struggling to keep up with business — because they’re full of illegal immigrants released into the US by overwhelmed Border Patrol agents, The Post has learned.

                              Since the crisis erupted following President Biden’s election, the four bus companies that operate out of the Central Station bus terminal in McAllen, Texas, have added as many as six daily routes, totaling 250 seats — but it’s still not enough, City Manager Roy Rodriguez said.

                              “We don’t have enough private bus seats to get everyone out,” Rodriguez told The Post.

                              The demand for tickets out of town is at a “record” high, with “most, if not all” of the recent increase coming from migrants who were caught crossing the border illegally and released pending future court appearances, Rodriguez said, citing information pulled together by McAllen Transit Director Mario Delgado.

                              “All seats are already purchased for tomorrow,” Rodriguez said Wednesday.

                              “So, if somebody wants to buy a bus fare to head north, they have to wait two days.”

                              Central Station has also seen a 50 percent surge in the number of passengers hanging around and waiting to leave, he said, adding, “That’s substantial because we’re a pretty busy bus station to begin with.”

                              A spokesperson for Greyhound Lines — the country’s largest bus company and one of the four that provide service to and from McAllen — acknowledged a spike in demand for travel from the southern border since March and said that “some of the increase can be attributed to migrant travel.”

                              Greyhound hasn’t received any federal help to expand its operations, the company said, but “would welcome assistance from the government as we continue to work diligently to provide travel support to migrant families.

                              “While it is not Greyhound’s responsibility to specifically transport migrants, Greyhound strives to treat all passengers with dignity,” the spokesperson added.

                              Representatives for three other carriers — Trailways, Tornado Bus Co. and El Expreso Bus Co. — didn’t respond to inquiries.

                              McAllen is located in the Rio Grande Valley, one of nine regions in the Border Patrol’s southern jurisdiction, which has seen more illegal immigration than any other, with 260,000 migrants stopped there since Feb. 1, according to federal data.

                              Nearly half of the migrants were in family groups, the statistics show.

                              Once caught by Border Patrol agents, they are processed and then sent to a government-run, coronavirus-testing site across from the bus terminal.

                              After being tested, the migrants are escorted to a nearby center run by Catholic Charities, where they stay for an average of 24 hours while making arrangements to travel further into the US.

                              Just that one center now accommodates a record average of 7,000 people a week, with about half leaving by bus and the rest by airplane, Rodriguez said.

                              Although migrants are supposed to be released from custody with a manila envelope containing instructions on when and where they’re supposed to appear in federal immigration court, the Department of Homeland Security acknowledged earlier this year that doesn’t always happen.

                              “In some cases, families are placed in removal proceedings further along in the release process rather than while they are at the border patrol station,” DHS said in late March.

                              Rodriguez said McAllen has no choice but to deal with the influx and praised the assistance provided by Catholic Charities, saying, “Thank God for them because I don’t know where we’d be without them.”

                              “We are continuing to attempt to ensure that everyone is tested so that anyone is removed from the line, whether it be the bus or the airplane, and that’s the best that they can do,” he said.

                              “These folks are not coming across the border to stay here in McAllen, and therefore we are working with others to see that everyone receives what they need to safely get to where they are headed.”

                              .

                              ...
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                              .

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Biden administration proposes 'just the first' set of 'Buy American' rule changes

                                The Biden administration is announcing a new, proposed rule that federal officials say marks "the most robust changes to implementation of the Buy American Act in almost 70 years."

                                Signed in 1933, the Buy American Act requires the federal government to only purchase goods determined to be at least 55% manufactured in the United States. The new proposed rule, which the administration will seek comment on for the next two months before publishing an official rule change, would immediately increase the domestic component threshold to 60% and gradually increase the threshold to 75% over the next decade.

                                The proposed rule marks "just the first set of proposed reforms to procurement policy under the Biden-Harris administration to ensure taxpayer dollars help American businesses compete in strategic industries and help American workers thrive," according to administration officials.

                                "With $600 billion in annual procurement spending, almost half of which is in manufactured products from helicopter blades to trucks to office furniture, the Federal government is a major buyer in a number of markets for goods and services, including the single largest purchaser of consumer goods in the world," a White House release announcing the proposed rule states.

                                "Leveraging that purchasing power to shape markets and accelerate innovation is a key part of the Biden industrial strategy to grow the industries of the future to support U.S. workers, communities, and firms. As the pandemic has demonstrated, federal procurement can strengthen the resiliency of domestic supply chains, and reduce the risk of Americans being adversely impacted by the actions of competitor nations during a time of crisis."

                                Senior administration officials told reporters Tuesday night the rule proposes two other actions in addition to the component threshold increases. The first is including a set of "enhanced price preferences for purposes of bid evaluation for select products or components."

                                "As the pandemic demonstrated all too painfully, disruptions in the supply chain for critical products from semiconductors to medical supplies for our health, our national security, and our economic security," one official noted.

                                The final proposed change would strengthen rules governing transparency and accountability over the federal government's purchases.


                                "New reporting requirements for critical products and components will improve data on the amount of domestic content in federal purchases," one official noted. "This will help bolster compliance with the existing law, and provide policymakers with greater data, to allow future rule-making to strengthen Buy American's ability for workers and businesses and communities across America."

                                The officials noted the third rule change is significant, as they do not currently have the proper data to ensure all government agencies and vendors are currently complying with the Buy American Act.

                                The officials also recognized the Trump administration published a final rule change directing the federal government to make similar Buy American adjustments but claimed the Biden administration's rule "goes far beyond that work and represents one of the largest changes to Buy American in 70 years."

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