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  • #16
    April Jobs Report...

    (succinct numbers summary:)
    Originally posted by Yahoo_Finance


    07 May 2021 - Yahoo Finance's Jessica Smith breaks down the April 2021 jobs report.

    Nonfarm payrolls rose 266K vs 1M expected, unemployment at 6.1% vs 5.8% expected

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    (KPMG Chief Economist's commentary:)
    Originally posted by Yahoo_Finance


    07 May 2021 - KPMG Chief Economist on April jobs data creating more ‘friction’ for the job market this year

    U.S. job growth showed an increase of 266K, falling short of projections. Constance Hunter, KPMG Chief Economist, joins Yahoo Finance Live to break down April’s disappointing jobs report.

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    (more commentary:)
    Originally posted by CNBC


    07 May 2021 - Four experts make sense of the disappointing April jobs report

    Hiring was a huge letdown in April, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by a much less than expected 266,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. Dow Jones estimates had been for 1 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.8%.

    Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, Kate Moore, head of thematic strategy at BlackRock's Global Allocation Investment team, Jason Furman, professor at Harvard's Kennedy School and former CEA chairman and Saira Malik, chief investment officer for Nuveen's $420 billion equity division, joined "Squawk Box" on Friday to discuss what could have led to the disappointing results.

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    Last edited by JRT; 07 May 21,, 17:11.
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    • #17
      Remember, folks: "Falling short of projections" is the same as "Our forecasts were way off the mark."

      1.55 mn fewer in the labor force (Jan-Apr 2021 vs. Jan-Apr 2020); one million fewer employed.


      Trust me?
      I'm an economist!

      Comment


      • #18
        Create new trillions of US Dollars and those Dollars have to flow into something.

        The following video was published today.

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        Comment


        • #19
          Keep an eye on bank borrowing from the FED: still way above the normal (100+ year) $500 mn / mo.
          https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BORROW
          Trust me?
          I'm an economist!

          Comment


          • #20
            The blueprint for Biden's economy


            OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET


            Budget of the U.S. Government
            FISCAL YEAR 2022


            https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-conten...udget_fy22.pdf

            Spending ($ bn)

            Existing Baseline _ Biden's Budget

            2020 _ _ 6,606.0 _ _ 6,550.4
            2021 _ _ 5,066.2 _ _ 7,249.5
            2022 _ _ 5,075.0 _ _ 5,706.7
            2023 _ _ 5,103.7 _ _ 5,452.6
            2024 _ _ 5,226.3 _ _ 5,518.9
            2025 _ _ 5,507.5 _ _ 5,816.1
            2026 _ _ 5,772.0 _ _ 6,105.8
            2027 _ _ 6,032.5 _ _ 6,405.2
            2028 _ _ 6,455.9 _ _ 6,853.9
            2029 _ _ 6,601.9 _ _ 7,015.0
            2030 _ _ 7,083.8 _ _ 7,474.6
            2031 _ _ 8,122.5 _ _ 7,865.8

            One of the common ways of making federal deficits look smaller is to assume a faster growth in nominal GDP (and, by implication, the tax base; spending on social support would also be lower). In Biden's first budget, nominal GDP in 2022-31 is 5.8% larger than the CBO estimates, or 0.6% p.a. that's tiny, and actually the real forecast is smaller than previous estimates: 2.0% (the same as the CBO) vs. 2.9% under He Who Should Not Be Named's last budget.

            On the revenue side, corporations are expected to contribute an additional $2,034.95 bn in 2022-31; the American Jobs Plan $1,667.05 bn more (including, for example, reductions in fossil fuel subsidies, reinstating Superfund excise taxes, and reduction in tax incentives to drill for fuel); and $764.4 bn more from American Families Plan (higher taxes on uber-rich, reform of capital gains taxes).

            Overall, revenues is expected under this budget to rise by $2,430 bn over 10 years.

            Trust me?
            I'm an economist!

            Comment


            • #21



              Unemployment among 16-19 year-olds dropped below 10% in May, for the first time in nearly 55 years.
              Trust me?
              I'm an economist!

              Comment


              • #22
                While supply chains reportedly continue to suffer disruptions, consumer demand seems to have risen significantly relative to 2019 (prior to the US economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic), per the video in the quoted material below.

                Originally posted by CNBC


                Bank of America CEO: Consumer spending has surged 20% compared to 2019


                CNBC
                Published on 14 June 2021

                Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan joined "Squawk Box" on Monday to discuss the health of the consumer as the economy continues to reopen and coronavirus restrictions lift.

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                • #23
                  Well I can tell you here in the Mid Atlantic I have not been able to find any Asian beer is months

                  My local watering hole took 10 ten days to get restocked on Miller Lite & Coors Lite kegs this past week.

                  And every trucking company in the Richmond area is throwing money at drivers...they are desperate.

                  “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                  Mark Twain

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by JRT View Post
                    While supply chains reportedly continue to suffer disruptions, consumer demand seems to have risen significantly relative to 2019 (prior to the US economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic), per the video in the quoted material below.




                    ...
                    April 2020 -20%
                    April 2021 +46%

                    This is not a trend upon which to rely.
                    Trust me?
                    I'm an economist!

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by DOR View Post

                      April 2020 -20%
                      April 2021 +46%

                      This is not a trend upon which to rely.
                      How much is pent up demand....I mean is water finding it's level?
                      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                      Mark Twain

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post

                        How much is pent up demand....I mean is water finding it's level?
                        How long is a piece of string?

                        There’s no pat answer to your question; too many different kinds of supply/demand variables.
                        Trust me?
                        I'm an economist!

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