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  • #16
    Originally posted by citanon View Post
    An interesting aside:
    Well, at least they're taking a serious, rather than sunny, look at the problem.

    But 90,000 troops? That's just your logistical force. The 200,000 troop figure was much more realistic...assuming those are 200,000 trigger-pullers of course.
    My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over.

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    • #17
      I wonder if it would be better to just destroy them in place? A full on invasion to secure the Nork's nukes would be an awfully tempting target for a defensive detonation. I highly doubt North Korea has a nuke small enough that they can put it on a missile, but that doesn't mean they can't load one on a truck and use it against an invasion force. Unfortunately Assad has show that a regime in an existential crisis is perfectly willing to use WMDs against their own population if they believe it can work to their advantage.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
        I wonder if it would be better to just destroy them in place? A full on invasion to secure the Nork's nukes would be an awfully tempting target for a defensive detonation. I highly doubt North Korea has a nuke small enough that they can put it on a missile, but that doesn't mean they can't load one on a truck and use it against an invasion force. Unfortunately Assad has show that a regime in an existential crisis is perfectly willing to use WMDs against their own population if they believe it can work to their advantage.
        It's a "no-go" from the start. Neither China or S. Korea could handle the crisis that would ensue. It would be a(n even worse) humanitarian disaster. You have to think realistically: What comes into place AFTER action? Who even wants to deal with a brainwashed and uneducated population of 24 million? Nobody. Nobody wants that big of a goddamn mess on their hands.

        My two cents is this; a gradual slow change in NORK society engineered by the ruling party. Yes, this takes a lot for granted like: "well, when the hell are they going to ever give up power and allow a real democracy?" That's too far down the rabbit hole. For now, give these poor f*cks an actual calendar, real books that are mysteriously NOT written by a member of the dynasty...introduce them into the world, SLOWLY to avoid societal collapse due to mental breakdowns caused by learning that it's literally f*cking impossible to bowl over a 300 in a game (without a handicap) and other startling revelations.

        Summation: You canít just collapse their entire life and society as they know it without there being absolutely massive repercussions.
        "We are all special cases." - Camus

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        • #19
          Originally posted by citanon View Post
          An interesting aside:

          Odd video. Fun. Two things.

          1) Check out the uber cool hats DPRK officers wear. About the 9 second mark. Its like they all sat down & thought 'those Russian officers have bigger hats, we'll show them!'. Also what happens in a society where no one is going to tell the emperor or his million man army they have no clothes (or in this case very silly clothes).

          2) I realise that some Americans struggle with the concept that other nations exist (not here obviously), but did it occur to CNN & its 'experts' to mention that the US wouldn't actually be invading the DPRK alone? There is a 'south Korea' (CNN viewers sit up in shock) and it has a rather large, very well armed and trained Army almost as big as the standing US Army - bigger if you count reservists (sound of people fainting in shock). Its a fair bet they would be in some way involved. Might even do the bulk of the fighting given that it sort of what they've been training for since...forever.

          Sort of undermines the tone of the story. Another example of crap defence reporting. Liked the big hats and the cool graphics though.
          sigpic

          Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Squirrel View Post
            It's a "no-go" from the start. Neither China or S. Korea could handle the crisis that would ensue. It would be a(n even worse) humanitarian disaster. You have to think realistically: What comes into place AFTER action? Who even wants to deal with a brainwashed and uneducated population of 24 million? Nobody. Nobody wants that big of a goddamn mess on their hands.

            My two cents is this; a gradual slow change in NORK society engineered by the ruling party. Yes, this takes a lot for granted like: "well, when the hell are they going to ever give up power and allow a real democracy?" That's too far down the rabbit hole. For now, give these poor f*cks an actual calendar, real books that are mysteriously NOT written by a member of the dynasty...introduce them into the world, SLOWLY to avoid societal collapse due to mental breakdowns caused by learning that it's literally f*cking impossible to bowl over a 300 in a game (without a handicap) and other startling revelations.

            Summation: You canít just collapse their entire life and society as they know it without there being absolutely massive repercussions.
            This is just one reason why no one really wants NK to collapse, especially not the SKs. No one is prepared to deal with the ensuing clusterf**k.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by citanon View Post
              This is just one reason why no one really wants NK to collapse, especially not the SKs. No one is prepared to deal with the ensuing clusterf**k.
              Unfortunately, there still lies the chance that this eventually might not ultimately be up to us.

              But I'll have to agree with BF here, this war game (at least from the context of the video) seems to make quite the bold assumption that the US would be shouldering the full burden of a mission that, in reality, would be in the best interests of everyone in the region (especially the South Koreans and the Chinese) to also become involved in some major capacity or another. No one wants to see a dirty bomb go off in the middle of Seoul or Beijing.
              "Draft beer, not people."

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              • #22
                What blows my mind is how rarely people mention that other elephant in the room: The thousands of artillery tubes sitting practically on the doorstep of the world's 3rd largest metropolitan area, population 25+ million, which also happens to be the world's 4th largest metropolitan economy, with a GDP of $774 billion.

                A mere 10-20 minutes worth of rocket and shellfire and the human cost alone would be catastrophic at best.
                My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Red Team View Post
                  Unfortunately, there still lies the chance that this eventually might not ultimately be up to us.

                  But I'll have to agree with BF here, this war game (at least from the context of the video) seems to make quite the bold assumption that the US would be shouldering the full burden of a mission that, in reality, would be in the best interests of everyone in the region (especially the South Koreans and the Chinese) to also become involved in some major capacity or another. No one wants to see a dirty bomb go off in the middle of Seoul or Beijing.
                  Any idea how well prepared the SKs are for prepared for offensive operations into NK?

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                    What blows my mind is how rarely people mention that other elephant in the room: The thousands of artillery tubes sitting practically on the doorstep of the world's 3rd largest metropolitan area, population 25+ million, which also happens to be the world's 4th largest metropolitan economy, with a GDP of $774 billion.

                    A mere 10-20 minutes worth of rocket and shellfire and the human cost alone would be catastrophic at best.

                    As far as I understand that's a top priority in defense plans. However, given the quantity of arms, the presence of chemical and biological munitions, and the density of population in Seoul, the answer is obviously not good.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by citanon View Post
                      As far as I understand that's a top priority in defense plans. However, given the quantity of arms, the presence of chemical and biological munitions, and the density of population in Seoul, the answer is obviously not good.
                      I think the S. Koreans are made of much more sterner stuff than believed. They have the ability to quickly rebuild their cities. What is important is finding safe areas to evacuate to for the next day while counterbatteries are used to great effect to take out the thousands of artillery tubes. Once those artillery tubes are taken out, NK is completely finished and fucked. South Korea can always rebuild her cities and be much more stronger.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by citanon View Post
                        Any idea how well prepared the SKs are for prepared for offensive operations into NK?
                        What I understand from what's been discussed in some past threads, the ROK (and US) have had multiple contingencies planned for moving into North Korea in the event of a catastrophic breakdown of conditions or relations to and with the country. However if either nation is unable to respond in a timely manner (i.e., bogged down by guerrilla resistance) the Chinese do have their 38th and 39th group armies (best equipped forces in the PLA) within close proximity to the northern DPRK border that can take some of the pressure off.

                        Of course this assumes the Chinese don't have other motives that may potentially seek to thwart reunification, such as pushing for a puppet state/new province.

                        EDIT: Rewording, sleep deprivation does wonderful things
                        Last edited by Red Team; 09 Oct 14,, 05:02.
                        "Draft beer, not people."

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Red Team View Post
                          Of course this assumes the Chinese don't have other motives that may potentially seek to thwart reunification, such as pushing for a puppet state/new province.
                          I don't know if China would want to keep a puppet state but you can count on them pushing south hard and fast to establish a buffer zone. They certainly don't want the US military setting up shop on the banks of the Yalu river.

                          China also has a lot of motivation to quickly establish control in order to stem the tide of refugees that would undoubtedly be headed their way.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
                            I don't know if China would want to keep a puppet state but you can count on them pushing south hard and fast to establish a buffer zone. They certainly don't want the US military setting up shop on the banks of the Yalu river.

                            China also has a lot of motivation to quickly establish control in order to stem the tide of refugees that would undoubtedly be headed their way.
                            I guess that begs the question of whether or not the Chinese are willing to stonewall American/ROK forces to prevent that eventuality. However the Chinese do have more diplomatic means of achieving the same goal, without the need for direct confrontation. Under the budgetary pressures of the sequester, the US may also be contemplating the redeployment of USFK in the aftermath of this scenario and might become willing to further draw down combat forces in the country as they hand off more responsibility to ROK forces. Might be getting ahead of myself here but at the end of the day, IMV, the most immediate concern for both countries in the event of a DPRK coup/civil war/catastrophic collapse is the security of the country's nuclear materiel. And it would do both sides an easier time by working together to achieving that end, rather than stepping on each other's toes.

                            Well...in a perfect world anyway.
                            "Draft beer, not people."

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                            • #29
                              I'd like to think that the US and China have already drawn up contingency plans for the eventuality of a North Korean collapse. Each side could take responsibility for quickly occupying and securing nuclear materials on either side of a particular latitude that they agree not to cross.

                              I can't imagine anyone wants US and Chinese troops stumbling across each other in the field. The collapse of the North Korean regime will be chaotic enough without resuming the Korean War.

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Red Team View Post
                                ....

                                Of course this assumes the Chinese don't have other motives that may potentially seek to thwart reunification, such as pushing for a puppet state/new province.

                                ...
                                I don't think they can afford to do so or will want to. As soon as the nuclear materials are secure, my guess is both China and the US will be looking to get out and saddle SK with the problem.

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