RAN's Collins class replacement

[Chunder]

Still a few hurdles with this decision.

1) The government won't be able to hide much longer despite the ineptitude of Australian MSM commentary, that the timeline doesn't favour local build.

2) Mitigating the obvious electoral fallout probably needs an announcement prior the election in may to substitute the local build with other surface platforms.

3) If you want them built, the only way is to pony up the cash to the USG for that 3rd production line to open. The only country that is capable is the U.S, meaning Virginia's.

Anything else, including the U.K build means 2038 at the earliest for complete replacement by 2060.

Chickens coming home to roost, as predicted in early 2010s by defence pros.

[zraver]

Still a few hurdles with this decision.

1) The government won't be able to hide much longer despite the ineptitude of Australian MSM commentary, that the timeline doesn't favour local build.

2) Mitigating the obvious electoral fallout probably needs an announcement prior the election in may to substitute the local build with other surface platforms.

3) If you want them built, the only way is to pony up the cash to the USG for that 3rd production line to open. The only country that is capable is the U.S, meaning Virginia's.

Anything else, including the U.K build means 2038 at the earliest for complete replacement by 2060.

Chickens coming home to roost, as predicted in early 2010s by defence pros.

Uhm, the UK just finished its Astute building program and has just announced the beginning of the design phase for their next generation of boats. This means the UK dock space is free to build boats now, while infrastructure is built up in Perth, first for maintenance and later for construction. A straight up Astute could begin building next year and a hybrid Astute/Virginia (astute with VLS cells and some American electronics) could begin building in just a couple years.

[JRT]

Uhm, the UK just finished its Astute building program and has just announced the beginning of the design phase for their next generation of boats. This means the UK dock space is free to build boats now, while infrastructure is built up in Perth, first for maintenance and later for construction. A straight up Astute could begin building next year and a hybrid Astute/Virginia (astute with VLS cells and some American electronics) could begin building in just a couple years.

My understanding, perhaps incorrect, is that the Australian shipyard for manufacturing submarines is going to be an expansion of existing facilities on the east side of the LeFevre Peninsula on the Port River, in Osborne, a suburb of Adelaide in South Australia.

[Gun Grape]

Uhm, the UK just finished its Astute building program and has just announced the beginning of the design phase for their next generation of boats. This means the UK dock space is free to build boats now, while infrastructure is built up in Perth, first for maintenance and later for construction. A straight up Astute could begin building next year and a hybrid Astute/Virginia (astute with VLS cells and some American electronics) could begin building in just a couple years.

Still have the last 2 Astute's being built. Seeing how it takes the Brits an avg of 8 yrs to build/launch one. With Agincourt laid down in 18, may be a while

[zraver]

HMAS Australia could slide in right behind Agincourt.

[Gun Grape]

My understanding, perhaps incorrect, is that the Australian shipyard for manufacturing submarines is going to be an expansion of existing facilities on the LeFarve peninsula, in Osborne, a suburb of Adelaide in South Australia.

And that could/should happen. There is time.

Got to figure that from when the design is agreed on, you have long lead items that need to be ordered long before construction begins.

Reactors and other items are normally ordered 8-10 years out. Unless the Brits or US are going to let you jump line and take items on order for our boats, you have time to expand the shipyard and start training yard personnel

[Officer of Engineers]

Joining twitch and listening to Aaron's sea stories, expose's (non-classified) and naval news is hella informative. Dude was a sonarman who ended up being a sonarman trainer who was assigned to the development squadrons and spent time off the Soviet and Russian coasts. The only surface sonar he was scared of was the Horse Jaw. He is dismissive of most surface and air ASW effectiveness to American boats being targeted with Soviet or American sonars. You will learn about sonar (types and employment), layers, sound channels, the shadow zone, torpedo evasion, life on a nuke boat and a possible impact with a whale.... He also does a series of videos on Patreon called Sub Brief where he does documentaries on various non-US sub classes. He releases them to You Tube after 1 year.

All that means is that the SSN can avoid detection. Does not mean there are no no-go zones for the SSN. Again, Soviet destroyers ping the hell out of the naval bases for their SSBNs for a reason. Port exits are shallow enough that no SSN Captain could hope to avoid detection.

[Chunder]

Rolls Royce has allegedly already stopped producing the reactor for the class and is already working on the next. Precludes the choice if time is a factor. Which it is.


The other thing that doesn't favour the Astutes is once the last ship is off the line, that's it - they're onto Dreadnought SSBNs, that is critical to the U.K. Its a boutique line that has none of the long lead scale production advantages of a ship of a class of 30 +.

Edit: Doesn't mean RAN would - just don't expect Astute to be a shoe in.

[JRT]

It has been reported that US is looking to forward base some USN SSN in Australia, maybe at HMAS Stirling in Perth in western Australia. If so, then they will also need a submarine tender there.

I suspect that they might also change to Blue and Gold crewing on the SSNs based there, maybe similar to crewing on Ohio SSGN, flying crews in for the swap and making use of the tender for both crews during maintenance cycle between submarine deployments. The Blue and Gold crewing gets more use on station from the expensive platform, but requires more personnel, so perhaps they could utilize RAN personnel for some of that.

It will be a long while until US SSN(X) and UK SSN(R) get their hulls wet. I would not be surprised if those share a lot of technology. Perhaps RAN may get their own variant.

[Monash]

It has been reported that US is looking forward base some USN SSN in Australia, maybe at HMAS Stirling in Perth in western Australia. If so, then they will also need a submarine tender there. I suspevt that they might also change to Blue and Gold crewing on the SSNs based there, similar to Ohio SSGN which change crews at forward locations. SSBN change crews in CONUS on different cycle interval.

Makes sense, that would give us the opportunity to 'seed' US boats with Australian personnel so they can start getting the real time experience they'll need well in advance of our first SSN showing up.

[zraver]

Rolls Royce has allegedly already stopped producing the reactor for the class and is already working on the next. Precludes the choice if time is a factor. Which it is.


The other thing that doesn't favour the Astutes is once the last ship is off the line, that's it - they're onto Dreadnought SSBNs, that is critical to the U.K. Its a boutique line that has none of the long lead scale production advantages of a ship of a class of 30 +.

Edit: Doesn't mean RAN would - just don't expect Astute to be a shoe in.

Astutes are built in the Devons Dock complex, Dreadnoughts are built in Barrow-in-Furnace. Close together but not the same slips.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAE_Systems_Submarines

[JRT]

It has been reported that US is looking to forward base some USN SSN in Australia, maybe at HMAS Stirling in Perth in western Australia. If so, then they will also need a submarine tender there.

Continuing that...

USN has only two submarine tenders, and those are roughly four decades old (here is a link to a recent news article). So new tenders will be needed, and it seems that adding presence in a forward base in Perth might increase the number of tenders needed. The tender might not need to be present there full time, but it would need to be there at least during the crew swap and associated maintenance interval and whatever preliminary prep and follow-up efforts which might be involved in that.

[Gun Grape]

Astutes are built in the Devons Dock complex, Dreadnoughts are built in Barrow-in-Furnace. Close together but not the same slips.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAE_Systems_Submarines

No, All subs are built at DDH. The facility is going through a expansion to build Dreadnoughts

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devonshire_Dock_Hall

[zraver]

No, All subs are built at DDH. The facility is going through a expansion to build Dreadnoughts

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devonshire_Dock_Hall

Then that dockhall is big enough to build at least 3 at a time (astute plus 2 dreadnoughts). Astutes show two building, ditto for dreadnoughts. Current Google Earth shows one astute in the water.

[Chunder]

Well, if that ends up being the case I feel as though there's probably some significant readjustment of expectations are far as our existing diesel sub life is concerned.

If there's one thing we just don't do well it's comit to a program without trying to stuff around with the requirements, and then renege politically 9n the importance of an outlined requirement.

Name the government - they all do it. I shudder to think about the RAN chugging around in a 60 year old sub, there's not really any excuse in the last 13 years when it comes to that.