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  • Originally posted by Monash View Post

    Pretty much what I knew from my reading. All of which which I think makes it harder for the Chinese and Russians to sell old boats to anyone. So that also means they'd have to sell boats with equipped with their latest tech which means they run the risks I alluded to earlier i.e. whom can they trust? . The French? They might be able to build second tier SSN's and sell them. Question is who to?
    India is Russia's obvious customer, though the re-alignment of India in to a more western Anti-China camp may impact this. Its more likely that Russia will make her money via technical help as India develops her own SSN capability.

    China doesn't really have any customers who can afford nuke boats. The Pakistani navy is a coastal force and has already conceded the Indian Ocean to India. At some point South Korea and Japan will probably go nuclear. But they are western aligned. But even if they don't, they are close to China and any attempt by China to impact their trade during a Sino-American War woud drive them in to the US camp fully. There is nobody else with the need for wide ranging naval capability because of a first tier economy tied to global trade.

    China's problem is numbers. She can out build anyone, she cannot out build everyone.

    Comment


    • Recommend folks read this post by BigFella. I read it when he forst posted on Facebook and it explains well what happened and why.

      As for the French and arms sales...How convenient that during the Falklands War, France "helped" their NATO British ally by continuing working with the Argentinians on the problems they Argies were having mating the Exocet launchers to their aircraft. French engineers stayed in country and helped fix the problem...with the result that seveal RN & RFA ships were hit and a few sunk by Exocets.

      At time like this I am reminded what is chiseled on an old lintel of the UK's Foreign Office..."No Permanent Friends, Just Permanent Interests".

      Australia is acting in a manner what's best for Australia.
      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
      Mark Twain

      Comment


      • No alliance between the UK & Australia

        Click image for larger version

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        https://twitter.com/graham_euan/stat...08938934095883

        Comment


        • Heh, the UK and Australia are closer than allies. The British Queen is still nominally at least the Queen of Australia. If the Aussies somehow get into a conflict with China, is the UK Parliament prepared to tell Her Majesty that the Royal Navy won't help defend her realm?

          Comment


          • According to Euan Graham, the answer is no

            This does not rule out UK helping in other ways.

            But no blood and treasure otherwise from the UK.

            Australia isn't in NATO.

            It will be the US looking after this one.

            Comment


            • French patch up dispute with Biden over submarine deal, agree to send ambassador back to DC

              WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden and France’s Emmanuel Macron took steps on Wednesday to repair their extraordinary diplomatic rift over a U.S. defense pact with Australia – holding a phone call in which the two leaders agreed to meet in person next month and Macron agreed to send France’s ambassador back to Washington next week.

              Macron took the extraordinary step last week of recalling his ambassador after the submarine deal was announced.

              Macron was upset both with the deal – which included Australia cancelling a submarine contract it had with the French – as well as with how the French learned about it.

              In a joint statement by Macron and Biden after they spoke Wednesday, the leaders agreed "that the situation would have benefitted from open consultations among allies on matters of strategic interest to France and our European partners."

              Biden does not apologize but the statement does say that Biden "conveyed his ongoing commitment in that regard."

              White House press secretary Jen Psaki described the approximately 30-minute call as friendly – and focused on the future.

              "He acknowledged that there could have been greater consultation," she said. "And there was agreement that we wanted to move forward in our relationship."

              The agreement the administration announced last week includes a partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom to share artificial intelligence, undersea capabilities and other advanced technologies. The U.S. will help Australia develop a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines.

              It's intended to counter growing Chinese military aggression in the Indo-Pacific,

              Speaking outside the U.S. Capitol Wednesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the French need to get a grip and “donnez-moi un break."

              "This is fundamentally a great step forward for global security," Johnson said.

              Biden and Macron will meet in Europe at the end of October to "reach shared understandings" and continuing working towards "creating the conditions for ensuring confidence," according to their statement.

              As the Biden administration tries to keep the focus on Asia, the statement includes a recognition of the importance of Europe towards global security.

              In a tweet sent a few hours later, Biden "reaffirmed the importance of French and European engagement in the Indo-Pacific region.
              ___________

              French hissy fit is over, we now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.
              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

              Comment


              • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                French hissy fit is over, we now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.
                France may be pulling their noses out of the rear view mirror (not much to be gained by crying about lost deals) and looking further forward toward selling the USAF the Lockheed Martin LMXT modified variant of the Airbus A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport.

                https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/afa-air-space/2021/09/17/lockheed-reveals-new-lmxt-refueling-tanker-firing-the-opening-salvo-in-us-air-force-competition/


                .
                .
                .

                Comment


                • Originally posted by JRT View Post
                  France may be pulling their noses out of the rear view mirror (not much to be gained by crying about lost deals)
                  Bingo. That "recall the ambassador" stunt was just plain silly.

                  Originally posted by JRT View Post
                  and looking further forward toward selling the USAF the Lockheed Martin LMXT modified variant of the Airbus A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport.

                  https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/afa-air-space/2021/09/17/lockheed-reveals-new-lmxt-refueling-tanker-firing-the-opening-salvo-in-us-air-force-competition/
                  Ta-da! On to the new hotness.
                  “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                    French patch up dispute with Biden over submarine deal, agree to send ambassador back to DC

                    WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden and France’s Emmanuel Macron took steps on Wednesday to repair their extraordinary diplomatic rift over a U.S. defense pact with Australia – holding a phone call in which the two leaders agreed to meet in person next month and Macron agreed to send France’s ambassador back to Washington next week.

                    Macron took the extraordinary step last week of recalling his ambassador after the submarine deal was announced.

                    Macron was upset both with the deal – which included Australia cancelling a submarine contract it had with the French – as well as with how the French learned about it.

                    In a joint statement by Macron and Biden after they spoke Wednesday, the leaders agreed "that the situation would have benefitted from open consultations among allies on matters of strategic interest to France and our European partners."

                    Biden does not apologize but the statement does say that Biden "conveyed his ongoing commitment in that regard."

                    White House press secretary Jen Psaki described the approximately 30-minute call as friendly – and focused on the future.

                    "He acknowledged that there could have been greater consultation," she said. "And there was agreement that we wanted to move forward in our relationship."

                    The agreement the administration announced last week includes a partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom to share artificial intelligence, undersea capabilities and other advanced technologies. The U.S. will help Australia develop a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines.

                    It's intended to counter growing Chinese military aggression in the Indo-Pacific,

                    Speaking outside the U.S. Capitol Wednesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the French need to get a grip and “donnez-moi un break."

                    "This is fundamentally a great step forward for global security," Johnson said.

                    Biden and Macron will meet in Europe at the end of October to "reach shared understandings" and continuing working towards "creating the conditions for ensuring confidence," according to their statement.

                    As the Biden administration tries to keep the focus on Asia, the statement includes a recognition of the importance of Europe towards global security.

                    In a tweet sent a few hours later, Biden "reaffirmed the importance of French and European engagement in the Indo-Pacific region.
                    ___________
                    Good news. You guys are in the clear.

                    Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                    French hissy fit is over, we now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.
                    You're not getting the reason, maybe this will help.

                    Click image for larger version  Name:	herve grandjean.jpg Views:	0 Size:	66.1 KB ID:	1576904

                    The way it was done BY ALLIES is what has them bummed out as stated by the spokesperson of the French MOD.

                    https://twitter.com/HerveGrandjean/s...51824007614467
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 23 Sep 21,, 20:39.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      According to Euan Graham, the answer is no
                      This does not rule out UK helping in other ways.
                      But no blood and treasure otherwise from the UK.
                      Australia isn't in NATO.
                      It will be the US looking after this one.
                      Yeah I call BS on that. There is too much kinship between the two peoples for the UK not to intervene. They are practically family. I hope Bigfella and Parihaka aren't offended but Aussies are just Brits with a peculiar accent and a lot of real estate. New Zealanders are Brits living in Middle Earth (the nice part). Any disagreements between them are confined to the Cricket pitch. If the big bad dragon strikes, all of them will come together to fight it off. Would you let your sibling fight off an intruder alone?
                      Last edited by Firestorm; 23 Sep 21,, 21:04.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        The way it was done BY ALLIES is what has them bummed out as stated by the spokesperson of the French MOD.

                        https://twitter.com/HerveGrandjean/s...51824007614467
                        Like Buck said, after the Exocets at the Falklands, the French can go screw themselves with that "Mon dieu! How could ALLIES do that us!" crap.
                        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                          Like Buck said, after the Exocets at the Falklands, the French can go screw themselves with that "Mon dieu! How could ALLIES do that us!" crap.
                          If you have issues to sort out that require a consensus

                          - in Europe which includes France
                          - the G7 which includes France,
                          - the UNSC, which includes France
                          - NATO which includes France.

                          The Americans don't trust the French. Ok fine, you understand my sensitivities so i got to understand yours.

                          The Americans couldn't trust the French not to sabotage the deal. So you guys instructed the Aussies to keep mum. They got repair work to do.

                          The Americans needed a bold move in Asia which you got. We ALL needed that. That's what counts.

                          Biden has wiped out all the legacy Obama era critiques. Now the region will be receptive. Win win..

                          Please the Asians and piss off the Euros. Can't please everyone .

                          There is repair work to be done in Europe.

                          Blinken grew up in France so he's working it.

                          Sub Deal with Aus-UK | Truth of the matter (podcast) | CSIS | Sept 23 2021

                          I like Mike Green's characterisation of the first island chain as the equivalent of the cold war Fulda Gap. Good analogy.
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 24 Sep 21,, 00:17.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
                            Yeah I call BS on that.
                            Why ? he's just pointing out the overuse of the A-word. Been thrown around a lot with this deal. They're referring to it as an alliance. It's not. It's a deal.

                            The alliance is between AUS & US. Brits want in then tie the knot.

                            Fighting in Iraq & Afghanistan the posse will join.

                            But when it comes to Aussies/Kiwis fighting for UK or vice versa that is not defined as yet.

                            They've done so in the past but those were different times.

                            Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
                            There is too much kinship between the two peoples for the UK not to intervene. They are practically family.
                            That's what you would think.

                            Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
                            I hope Bigfella and Parihaka aren't offended but Aussies are just Brits with a peculiar accent and a lot of real estate.
                            Start running..NOW.

                            BF's a full on Aussie Republican that wants nothing to do with the UK.

                            Does not like the union flag being part of his flag.

                            Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
                            New Zealanders are Brits living in Middle Earth (the nice part). Any disagreements between them are confined to the Cricket pitch. If the big bad dragon strikes, all of them will come together to fight it off.
                            Euan Graham's an Aussie btw, used t work at Lowy as a Director and by the sounds of it like BF.

                            Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
                            Would you let your sibling fight off an intruder alone?
                            Americans got a good deal out of this one. The Aussies are going to be their spearhead in the SCS.

                            They are going to be operating way north of the equator.

                            Australia And The Future of Deterrence Against China | Institut Montagine | Sept 22 2021
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 24 Sep 21,, 00:05.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
                              Heh, the UK and Australia are closer than allies. The British Queen is still nominally at least the Queen of Australia. If the Aussies somehow get into a conflict with China, is the UK Parliament prepared to tell Her Majesty that the Royal Navy won't help defend her realm?
                              They can and they will. Britain has hung us out to dry in the past, and that was when we were actual allies, not pretend allies. Having the Queen as head of state don't mean shit when it comes to cold, hard realities. If we get into a shooting war with China Britain will calculate its own interests and act accordingly. Australia will have very, very little to do with that calculation.

                              Australians are under no illusions about that, no on else should be.
                              sigpic

                              Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
                                Yeah I call BS on that. There is too much kinship between the two peoples for the UK not to intervene. They are practically family. I hope Bigfella and Parihaka aren't offended but Aussies are just Brits with a peculiar accent and a lot of real estate. New Zealanders are Brits living in Middle Earth (the nice part). Any disagreements between them are confined to the Cricket pitch. If the big bad dragon strikes, all of them will come together to fight it off. Would you let your sibling fight off an intruder alone?
                                Sure, and Indians are just Pakistanis with a sillier religion.

                                FMD, how do adults come up with stuff like this.

                                If Australia ends up in a fight with China New Zealand MIGHT help us depending on circumstances. They might send one of their two combat vessels, or maybe both of them if they are on a really good mood! That is basically it.

                                As stated, Britain won't do much more than use harsh language unless they see some vital interest involved. They were perfectly happy to screw us the one time we were actually threatened with invasion and just as happy to ditch us several decades later when they decided having significant military resources in the Indian ocean made no sense. Sentiment will get us nothing and we know it.
                                sigpic

                                Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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