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  • raptor1992
    replied
    the mfs fighter seems to be a copy of the F-22 except it's not quite as good. i read an article saying it would take 4 of these fighters to take a raptor down.

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  • Garry
    replied
    Originally posted by canoe
    Ok heres my rant about paper airplanes:
    ----
    1) To the best of my knowledge the Russians have never had a full stealth aircraft make it to the prototype stage. It'd almost impossible to know how far the U.S.S.R got with that area of research, however pretty much all the non-nuclear Russian military tech that exists today is forsale to anyone with enough money.
    ----

    2)
    Ok back to the main issue:

    All that said I think they can develop a 5th gen fighter probably not until 2012-15 though. I wouldn't underestimate the cost, one thing the U.S has proven is developing stealth aircraft is extremely expensive. The other issue with the comparison of the labour costs of the JSF is that the U.S isen't developing the JSF from scratch, its borrowing alot of the technoligy from the F22 to keep the JSF development costs down to help make it a successful exporter.

    The attached pics are U.S paper planes, first time I've tried posting pics on the board so bear with me if this doesn't work.
    1) Agreed. I have little idea about this and as far as I heard Russians are not of a great oppinion of stealth designs which cost too much of aerodynamics capabilities. In their view, detection means develop too fast to bet aerodynamics on being stealth.

    2) Your dates 2012-15 are optimistic scenario. I doubt anything would be fielded earlier..... Regarding cost. I think that in current prices Russian design bereuas can do it many ten times cheaper. The constant state funding or R&D in US was good to keep it to high level... but was very bad for the efficiency. No significant programe in Aerospace and Defense was completed with initial budget overun less than 10% in US since 1960-es....... (jgetty, correct me if I am wrong but name that program, OK?)

    and much can be done here to be more efficient. Again to illustate my case....

    - Look it took $40-50mln to design and produce first batch of ANSAT helicopter to Kazan Helicopter Plant in 1997-2001...
    http://www.kazanhelicopters.com:8080...rs/ansat/photo

    it cost them $60mln to design it from skratch..... how much it would cost in the western deisigner to design rotorcraft like this from zero?

    - Turning Su-27UBK to Su-30MKI cost Irkut Corproation about $350mln.... including engine, avionics, canard etc... Ho much it would cost a modernization of F-15 today as deep as MKI program was? Billions of dollars. (Jgetty what do you think?)

    - Compare how much Longbow program cost to US? Around $1.5bn on R&D with total $7bn to convert all AH-64 to Longbow. Look. Ka-50 was turned a two seater Ka-52 for less than $30mln.... and for $1.5bn you may have both Ka-50, Mi-28N and few more helicopter programs running together.....

    - How much did it cost to Unrainian Antonov to modernize An-124 to An-124-100 increasing its load capacity from 100 tons to 150 tons? It cost them $100mln + some unclear amount spend in USSR times. (OK this may be not a good argument)

    - OK. Now lets see how much heavy Mi-38 cost to design..... WoW $800mln. Why so much? Because Europcopter was part of consortium and it made 2/3rd of the costs for making 1/5 of the job in the project.

    I hope those examples support my conclusion that it is COMPLETELY WRONG use JSF costs to estimate what a 5th generation capabilities will cost Russia. It will be many times cheaper.

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  • Injecteer
    replied
    Originally posted by JG73
    I have found another layout for the new russian super fighter. It's top secret!!!
    OMG, ROFL!
    An excellent blueprint, JG73! Muhaha!

    Leave a comment:


  • canoe
    replied
    Ok heres my rant about paper airplanes:
    ----
    Well I'm not going to get into a debate about the authenticity of the pictures, I'm no professional but just looking at them they don't look right and I'm likely not going to be able to prove to you in a chat forum otherwise however this isen't the first time they've been posted on the net.

    That said even if the pics were real they do not denote actual developent of an aircraft, I'll try posting a few of the models and 'paper' designs for aircraft the U.S. In some cases they actually built scale prototypes of some of them, and beleive me there are LOTS of them. But very very few made it to the full scale prototype phase.

    To the best of my knowledge the Russians have never had a full stealth aircraft make it to the prototype stage. It'd almost impossible to know how far the U.S.S.R got with that area of research, however pretty much all the non-nuclear Russian military tech that exists today is forsale to anyone with enough money.
    ----

    Ok back to the main issue:

    All that said I think they can develop a 5th gen fighter probably not until 2012-15 though. I wouldn't underestimate the cost, one thing the U.S has proven is developing stealth aircraft is extremely expensive. The other issue with the comparison of the labour costs of the JSF is that the U.S isen't developing the JSF from scratch, its borrowing alot of the technoligy from the F22 to keep the JSF development costs down to help make it a successful exporter.

    The attached pics are U.S paper planes, first time I've tried posting pics on the board so bear with me if this doesn't work.
    Last edited by canoe; 19 Dec 06,, 23:08.

    Leave a comment:


  • Garry
    replied
    Originally posted by canoe
    Don't appear to be well done fakes either the silver aircraft really gives it away.
    Originally posted by JG73
    These photos are defintely fakes. They were posted in several boards. The shadows are incorrect.
    I can not see any problems with shadows. But don't want to argue anything about photos which I did not make.... I posted them from Russian web site

    http://paralay.narod.ru/

    there are also some other pictures of different unclear ideas.

    a pile of bricks next to the wall looks quite funny.... the workshop itself is really run down to ruins..... However MiG workshops in the center of Moscow which I visited looked even worse!!!

    ________________

    NOW BACK TO MAIN ISSUE - Is it possible for Russia to manage making 5th generation fighter much cheaper if JSF has cost $19bn on just first batch?!??!?!

    I believe it is going to be much cheaper than what US or Europeans spend on R&D. The years of low budgets made Russian's much more efficient, while stable growth of state funding in US and Europe made pushed them far from reality!!!

    Let me give my comparison of posible R&D costs in Russia and Western designers..... I guess only one thing would be common - the cost of used materials. Everytning else like machining time and quialified force would be 30-50 times cheaper than that in US or Europe with same or beter quality of results. In my estimate around half or some times up to 75% of the value in R&D is testing of samples/devices and cost of materials used in production of those samples would make around 30% of testing costs.

    Lets take 30% of costs for JSF as fixed and discount the rest 20-30 times..... we will have some vague estimation how much cheaper R&D of fifth generation fighter might be in Russia now. So Russia can make its 5th generation fighter for price of $5-6bn in current prices.

    Just to give you some illustrations on how much Russia is competitive in high tech products I give you two expamples......

    - Mi-17 costs 8 times cheaper the western alternatives but does the same or much beter job.....
    - Compare how much Rosaviakosmos invested in ISS and NASA, difference is in many times but how about results? Russian contribution to ISS cost it much less dollars that it would have cost ti NASA!!!
    Last edited by Garry; 06 Oct 05,, 09:44.

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  • canoe
    replied
    Originally posted by JG73
    These photos are defintely fakes. They were posted in several boards. The shadows are incorrect.
    Don't appear to be well done fakes either the silver aircraft really gives it away.

    Leave a comment:


  • JG73
    replied
    I have found another layout for the new russian super fighter. It's top secret!!!
    Attached Files

    Leave a comment:


  • JG73
    replied
    These photos are defintely fakes. They were posted in several boards. The shadows are incorrect.
    Last edited by JG73; 05 Oct 05,, 17:53.

    Leave a comment:


  • indianguy4u
    replied
    Wasnt mig 1.44 sold to chinese for their JXX project?

    Any more pic garry?

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  • Garry
    replied
    This are some pictures of T-50 project of fifht generation fighter from Sukhoi. I found them on web so this makes not secret.... however I find it quite stupid to place fotos like this to web......

    this are the dymaic models and some concept design thoughts about fifth generation at Sukhoi
    Attached Files

    Leave a comment:


  • Garry
    replied
    Originally posted by tphuang
    yeah, I guess that's the more appropriate phrase.

    As for AESA radar, it's definitely true that they probably already have something out, but just too costly or not good enough to compete with N011M.
    I heard that development of radars and avionics is considered a priority now in Russia. However it turns out that industry simply can not produce requried electronic components (chips etc)..... hence now Russians have to decided - either to use imported components to be integrated into their avionics and radars or invest HUGE amount of cash into capacities capable producing required chips.... Current Russian capacities allow producing chips which are either too thick or don't have required capability. Probably use of imported components would be allowed as building chip industry requires decade even if funds were pumped right now..... So for now they would buy chips from Israel, Taiwan, China, Malaisia, US..... To do that they would need to ammend some laws and KICK OUT few guys who are opposing that arguing that this would reduce national security.....

    Meanwhile I heard that development of radars looks at radar as a wheapon - not only a detection tool.... the focused electromagnetic shot of radar may destroy circuits of an aircraft or missile.....

    Leave a comment:


  • tphuang
    replied
    Originally posted by ajaybhutani
    then i think we cant really call it codevelopment. Its more like partially funding.

    WE never know whats the status of russians in these radars. As the less capable versions of AESA( if made in russia ) might never be tried for aircraft test flights till they know the radar is capable of competing with stuff like BARS etc they already have.
    yeah, I guess that's the more appropriate phrase.

    As for AESA radar, it's definitely true that they probably already have something out, but just too costly or not good enough to compete with N011M.

    Leave a comment:


  • ajaybhutani
    replied
    Originally posted by tphuang
    no solid source on this. I've just caught this on a couple of site and I can't even remember where I read them now. Apparently, it came as part of the IL-76/IL-78 deal. Basically, it reads like one of those deals where China pays for a big portion of the development and just get a ToT in the end.
    then i think we cant really call it codevelopment. Its more like partially funding.
    I think if you want to wait for Russia to produce something in the level of APG-77, you might have to wait a while. Considering the fact that Zhuk-MSF has yet to come out, AESA radar might take a little longer.
    WE never know whats the status of russians in these radars. As the less capable versions of AESA( if made in russia ) might never be tried for aircraft test flights till they know the radar is capable of competing with stuff like BARS etc they already have.

    Leave a comment:


  • Garry
    replied
    Originally posted by canoe
    Replying to Garry's post:
    This isen't a design for competition with the Raptor (its finicially impossible for the Russians right now even taking labour savings into account) this is a design to compete with the JSF.

    As stated in the article the engine they're designing to compete with the JSF is the AL-41F, as of 2004 it was 30% complete and needed another 600-800 million to finish plus another 150 million (minimum) to prepare it for serial production.

    The other MAJOR issue the Russian airforce is rapidly approaching is alot of their aircraft are ageing and will need to be replaced in the very near future, given the budget constraints of the Russian military their going to need a cheap alternative or they'll be force to ground a large segment of their airforce and reducing in the air training time for all their pilots.

    Given their situation I think they're better off designing a cheaper replacement for their aging aircraft and put more money into developing better avionics and weapons immediately. The next generation of missiles are 5 years off and currently the Russians have nothing definitive coming to compete with European or Amercian weaponary.

    The big issue is the Russians seem to be they're obsessed with trying to maintain numerical parity with the U.S in terms of military hardware. The realistic situation is Russia would stand to gain alot more by downsizing its military to something more the size of the British or French militaries and start focusing on quality rather then quanitity. Right now the majority of the Russian navy is in such poor shape its dangerous for them to leave dock, for any other military that would be unacceptable.
    Sorry that I can not reply to you in full now. But looking at the size of funds which Russia can spend on Generation 5 engine and how much it actually costs I can say it is possible but a POLITICAL decision must be made. Regarding the labour differences...... look a head of orientation department for all Russian piloted program earns 10,800 rubles a month that is less than $500 = $6,000 a year. This guy is VERY VERY qualified and don't judge his quality by the amount he earns. His peer in NASA earns 50 TIMES MORE...... If NPO Saturn tenders to do int for $2.5bn they are really capable to do it and I see no point for others to doubt having nothing to measure what the cost to make such an engine might be for them..... Listen you don't know at what stage is development of this engine is now.... and how much was invested into this in a Soviet times to dudge how much is left to invest.... I don't know it as well. So that is why when Mr. Lastochkin tells $2.5bn it is probably around that.

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  • VovaLee
    replied
    The first pre-production model will be in 2007.
    The first serial wish to make in 2010.

    Leave a comment:

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