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  • #46
    highsea,

    >Because the US defense aerospace industry is not dependent on foreign sales to stay afloat.

    lets leave the money question apart. Lets talk in terms of planes' specs.
    IMO, if the Sukhoi shows cobras on airshows and f22 doesn't, doesn't mean that either plane's manuevrability is good or bad. Again, those tricks are only EXAMPLES of what an AC can do. Like no one expects, that in the real battle the plane would spread a coloured smoke from it's wingtipps? :)

    The question of the effectiveness of the super-manouverability in the dogfight I'd left open untill we get results of more or less real training (maybe like Cope India), where both planes are put into the same conditions.

    to my mind the statement:

    "The bidding process for the purchase of 12 new jet fighters was canceled because technological advancements would have rendered the aircraft being considered obsolete"

    is a pure political blahblah...

    1st, how can brasilians know if something is obsolete, if they DIDN'T get their hands on it? :)
    2nd, U can call almost ANY AC obsolete, because of the progress. To avoid becommin' obsolete U can upgrade your hardware. The f15 is obsolete, but f15E AESA (or whatever it's called:) ) is not obsolete NOW. But it will be in several months :lol

    So, as the main reason for that refuse I'd call a pressure from the US side, direct or indeirect, and I wouldn't blame Su35 or f16 for that. I don't even know if any field tests of both AC were conducted in Brasil :)

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by highsea
      How many countries buy Russian AC when they can buy US instead?
      India? :)

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by Injecteer
        India? :)
        i think even malaysia has both options open

        Comment


        • #49
          Originally posted by Injecteer
          is a pure political blahblah...

          1st, how can brasilians know if something is obsolete, if they DIDN'T get their hands on it? :)...So, as the main reason for that refuse I'd call a pressure from the US side, direct or indeirect, and I wouldn't blame Su35 or f16 for that. I don't even know if any field tests of both AC were conducted in Brasil :)
          Lol, the Brazilians said it not me...How do you know there was "pressure" from the US? Any evidence, or are you just guessing...whenever someone decides not to buy Russian AC is it because of US pressure? That countries defense needs is not part of the equation?

          Injecteer- "India?"

          India's access to US planes is something new. In the past they did not have the choice.

          "Malaysia has both options open"

          Well then, Let's see what they choose then? Any bets?
          "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

          Comment


          • #50
            "Because the US defense aerospace industry is not dependent on foreign sales to stay afloat."

            oh, yea, that makes sense, but, it's not entirely true, as the US still rely's on exports for a large portion of their military sales, they would still need to advertise considerably their products

            "has inducted any new AC since 1996."

            yes, you are correct, they have not purchased a new aircraft since 1996, but, that's if you don't count the Su-27SM aircraft

            if America did not export all thoes fighters, America would be even more cash-stripped for the fudning of the F-22, and they mghit have to cut out a few features to ensure that they could purchase the minimum amount to maintain air superiority

            "12 SU-35's because they said the technology was obsolete."

            they're not talking about the Su-35 aircraft specifically, they're talking about all the fighters in the tender, they believe that in the future, there will be a significant;ly better fighter, and with the induction of fifth-generation fighters coming this year(for F-22) and within the next 7-10 years(5-7 for JSF and 7-10 for PAK-FA), therfore, you might as well wait

            the Su-35 is a great aircraft with all due respects

            "How many countries buy Russian AC when they can buy US instead?:"

            well, first of all, can you name countries that chose American aircraft over Russian aircraft, i'm curious, actually, you know what, i don't want to restart this entire thing, look at the posts between me and Troung, talking about the exact same thing, you should read the link that i gave when South Korea said they were tired of being forced by America, also, Thailand is greatly intersted in Flankers, and so was Singapore, anyways, wrong subject

            "Let's see what they choose then"
            they chose the Su-30MKM

            also, hgihsea, America does ehxibit substantial pressure on nations that have good alliances with them, such as South Korea and Western European nations, they WILL NOT allow them to purchase Russian aircraft
            for MOTHER MOLDOVA

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            • #51
              You're analaysis of the US defense industry is flawed. In the US, it is a private industry, and has NO bearing on the military budget whatsover. If anything, when the companys are slow for work, that's when you can get a good price.

              Comment


              • #52
                Originally posted by highsea
                Lol, the Brazilians said it not me...How do you know there was "pressure" from the US? Any evidence, or are you just guessing...
                I wouldn't mind seeing such an evidence, or it's absence either. :)

                I would also like to see the field tests' results, where it's clrear, which plane won. I have seen none.

                So, my logic tells me, that it's pretty simple...

                if the country does something, which contradicts to it's long-going plans (Brasil has been working on acquiring those Su's for a pretty long time) and this action is not based on actual data (field tests' results in this case), and the statement explaining this looks, hmmm, not that smooth :)...

                So, there could be some other reasons to change the seller, and those reasons are NOT based on actual plane's performance.

                Originally posted by highsea
                whenever someone decides not to buy Russian AC is it because of US pressure?
                Not always, but...

                Remember about the Egyptian M1s ;)? As I read, Egypt was forced to buy the lisence to produce them, becaused the counrty owned money to the US.
                So, considering the fact, that many other countries in the same region use soviet-made hardware, for example, Emirtats are using BMPs, Israel is using some captured good-ol' soviet pieces (Azarchit is based on T55?), I think, that Egypt as a not very rich country, would buy a cheaper russian hardware.


                Originally posted by highsea
                India's access to US planes is something new. In the past they did not have the choice.
                Well, I mean that US-India relations are pretty good (at least they trade with US-ally Israel :) ). So, for India it wouldn't be very hard to get it's hands on some fancy american toys :)

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by Injecteer
                  ...As I read, Egypt was forced to buy the lisence to produce them, becaused the counrty owned money to the US.
                  So, considering the fact, that many other countries in the same region use soviet-made hardware, for example, Emirtats are using BMPs, Israel is using some captured good-ol' soviet pieces (Azarchit is based on T55?), I think, that Egypt as a not very rich country, would buy a cheaper russian hardware.
                  Cheaper Russian hardware. This is the real point. Countries that can't afford US hardware, or are sanctioned, like Iran or NorK, have no choice. But certainly Russia has done their share of arm twisting also, they recently told India that they would sell to Pakistan if India bought from the US.
                  Originally posted by Injecteer
                  Well, I mean that US-India relations are pretty good (at least they trade with US-ally Israel :) ). So, for India it wouldn't be very hard to get it's hands on some fancy american toys :)
                  Yes, relations are good now, and it wouldn't be difficult for India to get some fancy American toys. I think they will probably take advantage of that.

                  I don't want to get into the whole issue of FMS, offsets, etc. My point was that the US aerospace is not dependent on FMS to stay afloat. This is not the case in Russia, as FMS is all they have right now, and you don't want to sacrifice the industry. Shipbuilding is in the same situation- India and China are buying Russian ships and subs, and this is keeping the industry alive. I'm not slamming Russia- they have no choice. If they let the industry stagnate, they lose expertise. People retire, move on, etc, when the jobs go away. After a certain amount of time, it is hard to recover those skills lost.
                  "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    oh yes, sorry, forgot that they were privatized countries

                    well, it was the Su-35 or the Mirage 2000, all other fighters didn't have a chance

                    but Russian hardware isn't that much cheaper than American hardware, F-15E's $40 million, and an Su-30MKI, about $30-32 million, if the F-15E was soo much better than the Flanker, than wouldn't you choose the Eagle over it because it could possibly, and supposedly, based on conflict experience, take down a few per each Eagle downed(well, i don't remember reading a time when they actually faced a Flanker in real combat, but i know the combat record the Flanker is pretty good)

                    those nations with sanctions, yes, it's true, their only option is to buy from Russia, as developing their own weapons would be far too expensive
                    for MOTHER MOLDOVA

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by M21Sniper
                      You're analaysis of the US defense industry is flawed. In the US, it is a private industry, and has NO bearing on the military budget whatsover. If anything, when the companys are slow for work, that's when you can get a good price.
                      Sniper is perfectly correct (assuming we're taking stocks). In the US esp. war of any kind is bad for a public company. USG (for example) starts shifting big bucks into logistics. Derfence companies make their money from new contracts esp. tender and r&d. The best time to buy is just before the conclusion of a commitment overseas - then the money switches back. How is everybodys faith in the US & UK pulling out of Iraq? THAT is an interesting punt on the Jane's index eh?
                      Where's the bloody gin? An army marches on its liver, not its ruddy stomach.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Dima
                        ... but i know the combat record the Flanker is pretty good)
                        Why don't you post the Flanker's combat record for us Dima?
                        "We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by highsea
                          ...How do you know there was "pressure" from the US? Any evidence, or are you just guessing...whenever someone decides not to buy Russian AC is it because of US pressure? That countries defense needs is not part of the equation?

                          "Malaysia has both options open"

                          Well then, Let's see what they choose then? Any bets?
                          Malaysia is getting its dellivieries of Su-30MKM in Dec 2005. In general US as any other country does provide large support for the sale of its weapons. In fact in 90-es only Russian aerospace companies were selling their products WITHOUT ANY DIRECT SUPPORT from Government. Moreover in 90-es export activity of Russian aerospace companies was not controlled whatsoever and they were selling whoever they wanted without consulting with Government and getting any support from it.

                          This is no longer a reality. Russian Govenment took back control over arms export in early 00-es. On the other side Government is now giving more support to arms trade.

                          as for example of US pressure you may consider a combat helicopter tender in Turkey. Despite the fact that Turkey ministry wanted to take Russian bid - Helicopter + License to produce + non limits on millitary use. Turkey had to take US offer of Cobra - Simple sale + Partial assembly of some modules + Spareparts delivery provisional to use of helicopters outside of Turkey.....

                          no surprise that new Turkish Government now have cancelled US victory in the tender and reoppened it again.....

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by The Chap
                            Sniper is perfectly correct (assuming we're taking stocks). In the US esp. war of any kind is bad for a public company. USG (for example) starts shifting big bucks into logistics. Derfence companies make their money from new contracts esp. tender and r&d. The best time to buy is just before the conclusion of a commitment overseas - then the money switches back. How is everybodys faith in the US & UK pulling out of Iraq? THAT is an interesting punt on the Jane's index eh?
                            US and global Aerospace stocks are trading higher now despite large outlays to Iraq..... look average EV/EBITDA of 2005-2008 is not beyond 8 times. Market is following higher global defense spendings. The factors which are driving producrement spendings now is
                            1) reversal of slump in procurement after end of cold war
                            2) change of arms generation in US and Europe
                            3) additional demand due to wear of equipement used in Iraq and Afghanistan....
                            well as for now we did not see any serious increase in procurement but market seems to believe it this and clearly expects it....

                            As for Russian Aerospace stocks the situation is even more interesting. Until recently 100% of their returns were earned from exrports.... Now they are seeing a whole big market domestically measured $2-3bn annually in 2006-2012.

                            Indeed Russian Air Force did not order a signle aircraft and even a signle engine to repair for the last 12 years!!! During that time Russian Fighter fleet declined from 4,253 in 1992 to around 1,200 in 1998 and 908 in 2002 (of which only 604 are able to fly without repair). At the same level of procurement RAF would have had only 2-3 squadrons operational by 2012 - when it would have been exacly 20 years of merelly zero procurement.....

                            However Russian Government realizes that it needs to spend in order to stop decline of Air Force. In 2005 RAF will receive first 10 Flankers after 13 years pause. Though this volume is not sufficient to stop decline it will certainly slow it down. In my view RAF will be getting 15-20 new fighters in 2006-2012 and repairing/modernizing 25-30 in addition to that. This would mean a $2.5-3bn additional revenue to Russian aerospace comps which are now being consolidated into a one company - United Aircraft Constructin Corporation (UACC). The merger was approved by Putin in December 2004 and expected to be completed by 2008.

                            Watch UP Russian Aerospace stocks!!!!

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Arms trade was always Highly dependent to Foreign Policy..... and it will remain Highly dependent to Foreign Policy.....

                              US and Russian equipement is proliferate due to the political status of those countries during the cold war..... Now US has remained in that status and it start conquering arms markets of a defeated party...

                              The talks about advantages of US equipement or Russian is quite meaningless.... it is tailored for a specific customers - US is good for small and professional armies of North America and Europe.... I doubt it is economically justified for Asia, Latin America and Middle east.

                              American arms provided to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan turned to be a real piece of old junk.... just like old Soviet t-52 tanks in Iraq.... Example survilance radars installed in Nasiq base is down most of the time due to expensive spareparts which are not supplied timelly and it is too expensive to service... Uzbeks were just fulled when they took this equipement and scrapped old soviet radar from 1970-es

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by highsea
                                Lol, the Brazilians said it not me...How do you know there was "pressure" from the US? Any evidence, or are you just guessing...whenever someone decides not to buy Russian AC is it because of US pressure? That countries defense needs is not part of the equation?

                                Injecteer- "India?"

                                India's access to US planes is something new. In the past they did not have the choice.

                                "Malaysia has both options open"

                                Well then, Let's see what they choose then? Any bets?
                                Well India would not touch US planes with a 10 foot pole. What they have done is go for the Russian airframe with Russian engines outfitted with Israeli or French avionics and weapons.

                                The only reason why Brazil didn't go for the planes is because they didn't want to spend the money. Period. Show me a report showing that Brazil picked US planes. They didn't. They preferred to upgrade their planes and save money. Su-35 obsolete? That's a load of ********. Look at the rest of the region and see what kind of planes they are flying. A squadron of Su-35 would kill them. What else do they need?

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