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  • #61
    chogy,

    ^^ good points, but given the relative wealth of the USA, and the fact that manufacturing is still very much alive here, any consumer demand for a particular component would drive the prices high for existing spares, and some entrepreneur somewhere would tool up and make the part.

    The fact that a country has a general capability to manufacture just about anything would make it a viable option. Items like semiconductors - most are made in Asia these days, but the technology is well known, we have the equipment, and it could be made here if there was a profit to be had.

    The transition would be rocky and painful, but very survivable.
    yeah, this is why there would be POCKETS of high-tech left. the issue is that while the US -could- make those parts, the cost of it would skyrocket, even if we had all the raw materials. manufacturers would go from global volume to national volume.

    so after the personal computers start dying of old age and the ipods finally break down, only the very wealthy would be able to field the expensive replacements.

    and this only works because the US is so big by itself, and is largely still internally reliant. the situation in say, china, would be about 10x worse, not to mention someplace like japan or cuba. forget 'rocky' then, it'd be mass famine.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    • #62
      Originally posted by Chogy View Post
      The fact that a country has a general capability to manufacture just about anything would make it a viable option. Items like semiconductors - most are made in Asia these days, but the technology is well known, we have the equipment, and it could be made here if there was a profit to be had.

      The transition would be rocky and painful, but very survivable.

      Survivable possibly, not so sure about "very survivable". The thing is virtually everyone and I do mean everyone fom Ma & Pa oufits through to GE would have to make the transition together in the same tight timeframe plus its not just your prodcts that are affected it's your production line as well. Think of all the machinery in even a small manufacturing outfit that would be foreign sourced. Not only would you have to find replacement parts for your inputs, the guy that supplies you with spare parts has to do the same thing!

      The more I think about how interconnected modern economies are the more mind boggling it becomes. Trying to map all the connections in global trade in detail starts to resemble trying to map all the connections in the human brain. A change in one minor element on one side of the globe ends up having significant impacts on another element somewhere else. All very Zen. In summary then the effects would I think be very very bad.
      Last edited by Monash; 14 Jun 13,, 10:13.
      If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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      • #63
        Theres a bit of a disconnect here, I think. "Survivable" means just that... none of the kids are going to keel over if they can't have a working iPod.

        If an alien presence suddenly slapped a force field around every nation's borders on earth, prohibiting interaction, the results would be very different for each, depending upon the conditions existing prior to the enclosure.

        Food, adequate natural resources to house, clothe, educate the people. An ability to recycle and wisely use what natural resources remain. Some nations would descend into a deadly anarchy, with a massive population loss, while others would fare better. ALL nations would suffer a dramatic reduction in the standard of living. That is agreed, and certain to happen.

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        • #64
          Originally posted by Chogy View Post
          Theres a bit of a disconnect here, I think. "Survivable" means just that... none of the kids are going to keel over if they can't have a working iPod.

          If an alien presence suddenly slapped a force field around every nation's borders on earth, prohibiting interaction, the results would be very different for each, depending upon the conditions existing prior to the enclosure.

          Food, adequate natural resources to house, clothe, educate the people. An ability to recycle and wisely use what natural resources remain. Some nations would descend into a deadly anarchy, with a massive population loss, while others would fare better. ALL nations would suffer a dramatic reduction in the standard of living. That is agreed, and certain to happen.
          3D printing and robotics will take off even faster in such a situation than they are now(which ain't slow).If you can't buy it,you have to make it as cheap as possible.Some nations will suffer,others will thrive.But those nations that already have a solid educated base&technological know-how will make the transition fast.Maybe even faster than now.Wasting money on another sensitivity training will cease so money could be spent on making oil&plastic from algae,efficient use of solar energy,etc... You have energy,renewable raw materials and plenty of productivity due to automation of the economy.Basically you're self sufficient.Which is good.
          Those who know don't speak
          He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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          • #65
            Originally posted by Chogy View Post
            Theres a bit of a disconnect here, I think. "Survivable" means just that... none of the kids are going to keel over if they can't have a working iPod.

            If an alien presence suddenly slapped a force field around every nation's borders on earth, prohibiting interaction, the results would be very different for each, depending upon the conditions existing prior to the enclosure.

            Food, adequate natural resources to house, clothe, educate the people. An ability to recycle and wisely use what natural resources remain. Some nations would descend into a deadly anarchy, with a massive population loss, while others would fare better. ALL nations would suffer a dramatic reduction in the standard of living. That is agreed, and certain to happen.
            Chogy, agreed, although in the case of an embargo (self or otherwise) on the US I think the effects would take several years to become severe, again using Iran as an example the effects are incremental at first until you reach key "tipping points" in terms of cost inflation, falls in demand and unemployment etc when suddenly economic deterioration accelerates and you start getting into Wiemar Republic territory (or for that matter unless things change soon Iranian Republic territory).
            Last edited by Monash; 17 Jun 13,, 12:19.
            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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            • #66
              Originally posted by Mihais View Post
              3D printing and robotics will take off even faster in such a situation than they are now(which ain't slow).If you can't buy it,you have to make it as cheap as possible.Some nations will suffer,others will thrive.But those nations that already have a solid educated base&technological know-how will make the transition fast.Maybe even faster than now.Wasting money on another sensitivity training will cease so money could be spent on making oil&plastic from algae,efficient use of solar energy,etc... You have energy,renewable raw materials and plenty of productivity due to automation of the economy.Basically you're self sufficient.Which is good.
              Mihais, also agreed, 3D printing is a transformation technology that probably deserves it's own thread in terms of its potential impacts (both good and bad) on the global economy in the next 20 years or so. And now back on thread anymore "daft war plans? I was going to suggest the "British Amada"

              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Armada
              Last edited by Monash; 17 Jun 13,, 12:25.
              If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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              • #67
                I think the countries which have net exports in goods will suffer more then those who were importers.

                It is easier to produce something you didn't then to eat the extras.
                No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                  I think the countries which have net exports in goods will suffer more then those who were importers.

                  It is easier to produce something you didn't then to eat the extras.
                  The Japanese do their head nod.

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                  • #69
                    I am not sure this particular fellow had a plan when he started this war:
                    Paraguayan War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

                    As for the hypothetical isolation scenarios, I am interested in the social upheaval that those kinds of movements would cause. Societies are very fragile things sometimes...
                    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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                    • #70
                      is this the infamous "attack all your neighbors at once" war?

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                        is this the infamous "attack all your neighbors at once" war?
                        Yep

                        I surmise the purpose of the war was to ensure that the surviving men would all have their own personal harem.

                        Fanfare for the Common Man was played at the conclusion and then stolen by some American scumbag in the following century.
                        "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                          We'll just unleash a barage of bacon,.....
                          Oh no!!... you found my kryptonite.

                          Cheers!...on the rocks!!

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